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A separate issue is the problem of compensation for the decline in receipts of the Pension Fund as concerns the citizens serving less than 10 years and returning to the civilian sphere, since in contradistinction to other employers, the Defense Ministry does not make contributions to the Pension Fund. It would be wrong to disadvantage such citizens.

However, the model under observation offers the possibility to resolve this problem. It would suffice to transfer to the Pension Fund a portion of the funds accumulated by the CMS management company in the personal accounts of citizens discharged from the military organization.

, , ( .. ) 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 , 413 = 306 + 72 + 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 The results of the modeling are attached as graphs indicating the semiannual dynamics of the number of participants in the SCSMP and CMS (thousands persons) and the dynamics of housing provision to the military personnel (thousands persons). According to this version, by year 2035 housing will be provided to thousand persons, including 306 thousand officers, 72 thousand contracted privates and non-commissioned officers, and 35 thousand of warrant officers (ensigns). By that time, only officers and contracted privates and non-commissioned officers will remain entitled to participate in the CMS. The processes of their joining and withdrawal from the system (upon being provided with own housing) will stabilize.

The dynamics discussed above will also determine the flows of budget resources, since it was assumed that each participant in the system will be entitled for a stable amount of about Rub. 30 thousand a year in prices of 2004.

A recent Defense Ministry conference held on the initiative of the RF President has approved the plan of the cumulative mortgage system aimed at provision of the military personnel with housing.

In conclusion, there should be noted yet another advantage of entitlement of all servicemen making their second contracts in 2005 to participate in the new cumulative system of housing provision. After the launch of this system the inflow of new servicemen in the line for housing will stop. For a certain time, the military personnel serving for sufficiently long terms and preparing to retire from the military organization will continue to join this line, however, this flow will stop soon and the state will have the opportunity to settle its accumulated obligations.

N. Kardashevsky, V. Tsymbal A forecast of certain macroeconomic indicatorsBelow are presented the results of forecasting of the tax revenues of the consolidated (singling out profit tax, VAT, and the income tax) budget and revenues of the federal budget generated by the profit tax in April through June of 2004. The estimated values were calculated basing on the data pertaining to the time interval from January of 1999 till January of 2004 according to the data presented by the RF Finance Ministry and basing on REM models21. It should be noted that since November of 2003 IET has monthly published the bulletin of model based calculations of short term forecasts of social and economic indicators observed in the Russian Federation (see www.iet.ru), which presents estimates of more than 40 indicators.

Table Forecast of tax revenues of the consolidated budget Indicator Amount of the aggre- Amount of the profit Amount of VAT reve- Amount of Month gate tax revenues tax revenues nues income tax revenues REM model based forecasts (Rub. billion)401.6 74.4 84.8 45.April 327.2 44.3 81.6 40.May 309.5 35.9 82.7 45.June ARIMA model based forecasts (Rub. billion) 366.1 61.6 84.8 43.April 301.2 42.4 82.3 43.May 279.3 41.9 82.4 45.June For the purposes of this presentation, a forecast is defined as an estimate of the future values of the indicator obtained basing on a model with the best statistical qualities. For more details of the modeling of time series see, for instance: S.

Sinelnikov-Murylev, R. Entov, S. Drobyshevski, V. Nosko, A. Yudin (2001) Econometric Analysis of Time Series of Key Macroeconomic Indicators, Moscow, IET.

REM model principles were worked out by Robert Conrad and Morgan Smith of the Duke University, USA, in order to forecast tax revenues. With the authors permission, we use this model for plotting our forecasts.

Here forecasted values of (nominal) tax revenues are presented in terms of Rub. Billions or increments of real values in comparison with the figures registered in the respective periods of preceding years and not in percentage of GDP, since the reliable monthly data on the RF GDP are not available in the official statistical records.

Memorandum: actual values in respective periods of 2003 (Rub. billion) 332.0 68.7 74.6 37.April 270.8 41.0 71.9 32.May 255.9 33.2 72.8 37.June Increment in tax revenues in comparison with the respective month of the preceding year (in prices of this month) according to REM model 10% -2% 3% 12% April 10% -2% 3% 12% May 10% -2% 3% 12% June Increment in tax revenues in comparison with the respective month of the preceding year (in prices of this month) according to ARIMA model 0% -19% 3% 5% April 1% -6% 4% 20% May -1% 14% 3% 12% June Table 1a Forecast of tax revenues of the federal budget Month Amount of the aggregate tax revenues Amount of the profit tax revenues 227 211 11. 11.

15% 6% -44% -45% April 2004.8.4 5 201 15% 8% 7.2 -44% 9.1 -29% May 2004.3.210 184 17.

15% 0% 7.8 -44% 22% June 2004.2.0 Memorandum: actual values in respective periods of 2003 (Rub. billion) April 2003 180.2 18.May 2003 159.4 11.June 2003 166.3 12.On the average, the forecasted rates of growth in the income tax revenues23 in April, May, and June of 2004 in comparison with the figures registered in the respective periods of the preceding year will make about 12 per cent (see Tables 1 and 1a) in real terms. The average rates of increase in the amount of VAT revenues will make slightly above 3 per cent in real terms. As concerns the profit tax generated revenues of the RF consolidated budget, they will decline on the average by 3 per cent in real terms.

Average rates of increment are calculated as the arithmetic mean of the forecasts based on two models over a 3 month period. At the same time, it should be noted that forecasted rates of increment in revenues over three months based on REM models demonstrate higher stability than ARIMA based estimates, what may be directly explained by the technology of forecasting. According to the REM model, the coefficient of growth in forecasted revenues in comparison with the respective indicators registered in the preceding year insignificantly changes month on month, since the obtained fluctuations result either from changes in the tax rates across individual months, or from the increment in the amount of revenues accumulated since the beginning of the year. At the same time, fluctuations in the rates of growth in ARIMA based forecasts are explained by unstable dynamics of time series under observation and the characteristics of forecasts of econometric models of time series.

(Rub. billion) (Rub. billion) (Rub. billion) (Rub. billion) to REM model to REM model to ARIMA model to ARIMA model REM model based forecasts REM model based forecasts Increment in tax revenues in Increment in tax revenues in Increment in tax revenues in Increment in tax revenues in ARIMA model based forecasts ARIMA model based forecasts comparison with the respective comparison with the respective comparison with the respective comparison with the respective prices of this month) according prices of this month) according prices of this month) according prices of this month) according month of the preceding year (in month of the preceding year (in month of the preceding year (in month of the preceding year (in The profit tax revenues of the federal budget will decline by more than 30 per cent. As concerns the aggregate tax revenues of the RF consolidated budget in April, May, and June of 2004, the respective forecasted average growth in real terms will make about 5 per cent in comparison with the figures registered in the respective periods of the preceding year, while the total revenues of the federal budget will increase by 10 per cent over the same period.

M. Turuntseva, S. Ponomarenko Issues discussed at the meetings held by the Government of the Russian Federation on March 18 and March 25 of In the period from March 1 to March 29 of 2004, the RF Government held three meetings, in the course of which there were examined various issues.

In particular, it was decided to provide additional financing for the RF State Duma and the Federal Security Service from the reserve fund of the RF Government. Besides, the Government discussed the results of the social and economic development of the Russian Federation in 2003, scenario based forecasts of Russias social and economic development in 2005 through 2007, and parameters of projections with respect to prices (tariffs) on products (services) of natural monopolies for year 2005, based on the respective report of the RF Ministry of Economic Development, there were approved the principles underlying the draft RF Forestry Code presented by the RF Ministry of Economic Development, there was approved the draft federal law On amendments to articles 34 and 41 of the federal law On investment of funds for financing of the cumulative part of the retirement pension in the Russian Federation, it was decided to submit it to the State Duma according to the established procedure, there was discussed the issue concerning the measures necessary for implementation of the RF Presidents decree No. 314 of March 9, 2004, On the system and structure of the federal executive authorities and taken respective decisions.

Below, there will be discussed such important issues as the draft federal law On amendments to articles 34 and 41 of the federal law On investment of funds for financing of the cumulative part of the retirement pension in the Russian Federation, as well as the problems the results of the social and economic development of the Russian Federation in 2003, scenario based forecasts of Russias social and economic development in 2005 through 2007, and parameters of projections with respect to prices (tariffs) on products (services) of natural monopolies for year 2005 reviewed at the meeting held on March 25, 2004.

Meeting of the RF Government of March 18, 2004.

At this meeting, there was discussed the draft federal law On amendments to articles 34 and 41 of the federal law On investment of funds for financing of the cumulative part of the retirement pension in the Russian Federation. Articles 10 and 32 of the federal law On investment of funds for financing of the cumulative part of the retirement pension in the Russian Federation set forth that the RF Pension Fund is responsible for informing of the insured persons not only about the state of their individual personal accounts, but also about the results of investment of respective pension savings entrusted with management companies. Therefore, the draft law amends article 41 of the federal law On investment of funds for financing of the cumulative part of the retirement pension in the Russian Federation to the effect that in the period from January 1, 2003 till March 31, 2004, the RF Government establishes procedures and terms applicable to the informing of the insured persons about the state of their individual personal accounts and the results of investment of respective pension savings entrusted with management companies on the part of the Pension Fund.

At the same time, the draft law under observation eliminates another discrepancy in the text of this law.

Federal law No. 135-FZ of November 10, 2003, On amendments to article 41 of the federal law On investment of funds for financing of the cumulative part of the retirement pension in the Russian Federation sets forth that in the period from January 1, 2003 till March 31, 2004, the RF Government should determine the terms of transfer of pension savings to the management companies chosen by the insured persons or state management company by the RF Pension Fund in accordance with article 34 of the federal law On investment of funds for financing of the cumulative part of the retirement pension in the Russian Federation. However, article 34 of the federal law On investment of funds for financing of the cumulative part of the retirement pension in the Russian Federation concerns only the terms of transfer of pension savings to the management companies chosen by the insured persons and does not determine the terms of transfer of pension savings to the state management company. The amendments to article 34 of the federal law On investment of funds for financing of the cumulative part of the retirement pension in the Russian Federation es tablish the terms of transfer of pension savings to the state management company and eliminate the discrepancies between articles 34 and 41 of the federal law On investment of funds for financing of the cumulative part of the retirement pension in the Russian Federation. The meeting of the RF Government approved the draft federal law On amendments to articles 34 and of the federal law On investment of funds for financing of the cumulative part of the retirement pension in the Russian Federation and took the decision to to submit it to the State Duma according to the established procedure.

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