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Each year, the indicator of the share of direct investment in the total amount of investment varied from to 100 per cent. On the whole, it may be noted that the share of direct investment is often relatively high in regions where industry primarily orients towards the domestic market, while there are regions with lower shares of direct investments (for instance, the Belgorod, Chelyabinsk, Omsk oblasts, the Krasnoyarsk krai, Yakutia) among the regions with raw materials and export oriented industries. Although there are many exceptions from this rule, the credibility of this regularity is clearly confirmed by the lists of regions, which were leaders in terms of total amounts of attracted foreign investment and per capita foreign direct investments (see Table 1). Only three regions out of 14 regions where the total amount of foreign investment exceeded US $ 100 per capita may not be characterized as export oriented ones (Moscow, St. Petersburg, and the Moscow oblast). In 9 regions out of 14 regions leading in terms of amounts of per capita foreign direct investment the economy is oriented towards the domestic market (alongside with the tree regions mentioned above they include the Leningrad, Kaluga, Samara, Kostroma, and Novgorod oblasts, and the Krasnodar krai).

Table Regions leading in terms of per capita amounts of foreign investment in Foreign investment, total Foreign direct investment RF subjects US $ per capita RF subjects US $ per capita Nenets AO 5178 Nenets AO Sakhalin oblast 1210 Sakhalin oblast Omsk oblast 1129 Yamal Nenets AO City of Moscow 989 City of Moscow Sverdlovsk oblast 298 Moscow oblast Rep. of Sakha (Yakutia) 296 Leningrad oblast Yamal Nenets AO 273 Kaluga oblast Chelyabinsk oblast 220 Astrakhan oblast City of St. Petersburg 192 Samara oblast Rep. of Tatarstan 171 RF average Khanty Mansi AO 163 Sverdlovsk oblast RF average 138 City of St. Petersburg Krasnoyarsk krai 123 Krasnodar krai Kamchatka oblast 114 Kostroma oblast Moscow oblast 108 Novgorod oblast Foreign investors take decisions relating to direct investment basing on such factors as raw materials industries, or capacity of domestic sales markets. The list of regions leading in terms of per capita foreign direct investment are four largest Russias regions in terms of population (Moscow and the Moscow oblast, St. Petersburg and Krasnodar krai), Samara oblast, where the third agglomeration of Russia (in terms of population) is situated. Other regions (the Leningrad, Kaluga, Kostroma, and Novgorod oblasts) are situated exclusively in the center and north-west of Russia. It shall be specifically mentioned that the Moscow and Leningrad oblasts were among the leaders, what is due to their proximity to the largest cities, while production costs there are lower. The same factor may be applied to the Kaluga oblast (its border is second closest to Moscow). The Novgorod oblast has created the favorable investment climate, in the Krasnodar krai exist the best conditions for the development of food industry related to processing of agricultural produce.

In spite of the instability of inflow of foreign investment in terms of years, a considerable number of regions leading in terms of amounts of investment (both total and direct) in 2002 were also among the leaders in the preceding years. The Nenets AO is the most unstable region, since in 2000 it did not attract any foreign investment. Although this region was among leaders in terms of the total per capita amount of foreign investment in 1999, it could attract a considerable amount of direct investment only in the last year.

As concerns the total per capita amounts of investment in fixed assets, the Sakhalin oblast has been the second in the last four years, the Omsk oblast third and fourth, while Moscow, after being the first in through 2001, was only the fourth in 2002. The Chelyabinsk oblast and St. Petersburg also have been among the leaders. As concerns other regions, their positions have been volatile in the preceding years. In through 2001, the Leningrad oblast was among the leaders, however, it was only 21st in 2002. The Sakhalin oblast was the first in terms of per capita foreign direct investment in 1999 through 2001, the Yamal Nenets AO, Moscow, the Moscow oblast, St. Petersburg and the Leningrad oblast, and the Novgorod oblast were also among the leaders. The Krasnodar krai, which was third and fourth in 1999 through 2001, lost its leading position in 2002, while the Astrakhan oblast was registered among leaders for the first time.

The leading positions of regions in terms of their shares in the total amounts of foreign investments attracted to the country was determined not only by the factors discussed above, but also the size of their territory (see Table 2).

Table Regions leading in terms of absolute amounts of attracted foreign investment in (shares of regions in the attracted foreign investment) Foreign investment, total Foreign direct investment RF subjects Share, % RF subjects RF 100 RF City of Moscow 42,68 City of Moscow 37,Omsk oblast 12,14 Sakhalin oblast 16,Sverdlovsk oblast 6,85 Moscow oblast 14,City of St. Petersburg 4,45 Yamal Nenets AO 3,Chelyabinsk oblast 4,04 Leningrad oblast 2,Sakhalin oblast 3,57 Sverdlovsk oblast 2,Moscow oblast 3,49 Samara oblast 2,Rep. of Tatarstan 3,25 Krasnodar krai 2,Tyumen oblast 1,95 City of St. Petersburg 2,Krasnoyarsk krai 1,84 Nenets AO 2,Samara oblast 1,54 Rostov oblast 1,Rep. of Sakha (Yakutia) 1,Nenets AO 1,Khanty Mansi AO 1,Krasnodar krai 1,Note: the table includes regions whose share in attraction of foreign investment makes over 1 per cent.

Moscow has been among the leaders in terms of the absolute amount of foreign investment over the last four years, and its share increased each year (in 1999 it was at 28 per cent). The dynamics of the Moscow share in foreign direct investment was not so stable, however, on the whole the upward trend is perceptible (in 1999, Moscow was the second after the Sakhalin oblast in terms of the share in foreign direct investment 18 per cent).

Economically underdeveloped subjects of the Russian Federation still remain outsiders in terms of attraction of foreign investment. According to Goskomstat reports, all republics in the Southern federal okrug (with the exception of Adygea) failed to attract any foreign investment (Dagestan, Ingushetia, Kabardino-Balkaria, Kalmykia, Karachayevo-Cherkesiya, North Osetia), the south Siberian Republics of Altai and Tyva, the Evenk, Ust Orda, Buryat, Aginski Buryat, and Chukotka Aos failed to attract foreign investment also in the last three years). Negligible amounts of foreign investment were registered in Khakasia and Mari El in 2002.

The comparison of the amounts of attracted foreign investment and investment in fixed assets reveals that certain regions are similarly attractive and non-attractive for both foreign and domestic investors.

Foreign investors are more than domestic investors interested in Moscow (it is at the top of the second ten regions in terms of extra-budgetary per capita investment in fixed assets). The similar situation, especially as concerns foreign direct investment, is registered in a number of oblasts situated in the Central Russia and in the North West (first of all, the Moscow, Kaluga, Vladimir, and Leningrad oblasts). As concerns other regions, there may be singled out the Sverdlovsk and Ulyanovsk oblasts, and the Primorski krai (the latter is more attractive to foreign investors because of its favorable location in the Eastern part of the country).

The opposite situation, where regions are more attractive for domestic investors is primarily characteristic of economically underdeveloped regions-corporations, which include the Taimyr, Evenk, and Chukotka AOs (all of them were among the first ten regions in terms of extra-budgetary per capita investment in fixed assets in 2002, however, the Evenk and Chukotka AOs failed to attract any foreign investment in the last 4 years, while the Taimyr AO attracted foreign investment only in 2002). Tatarstan and Bashkortostan are also relatively less attractive for foreign investors. Although Tatarstan attracts rather large amounts of foreign investment, no direct investment are made in this Republic (Tatarstan was at the top of the seventh ten regions in terms of per capita foreign direct investment in 2002). The most apparent factor behind this situation may be the economic policies pursued by the regional administration.

O. Kuznetsova The Real Sector: Factors and Trends In January through March of 2003, the increase in output of the base economic sectors made 6.3 % in comparison with the figures registered in the respective period of the preceding year, including a 5.7 % growth in industry and 13.6 % in construction. The relative acceleration of the rates of growth in output was determined by the persistence of the trends formed in base sectors of industry since the second half of 2002.

The major structural shifts in production were determined by changes in the business situation on the domestic and external markets.

1.1.1.1.1.0.0.0.0.0.Jan-Feb 2000. Jan-Feb 2001. Jan-Feb 2002.

Fig. 1. Changes in output dynamics across industries in January and February of 2001 through 2003, industry = The favorable business situation of world markets still creates incentives for growth in output of fuel industry and ferrous metallurgy. Besides, in the beginning of this year there was registered an increase in output of non-ferrous metallurgy, which compensated for the decline in production observed in the 3rd quarter of 2003. The expansion of output of industries belonging to fuel and raw materials complexes accounted for more than 80 % of the total growth in industrial output.

The increase in output of final production, primarily oriented towards the domestic market, made 2.5 % in comparison with the figures registered in January and February of 2002. In the situation, where rates of growth in import of consumer goods outpaced the dynamics of domestic production, insufficient competitiveness of domestic goods remains a key factor constraining output. According to estimates of the RF Ministry of Economic Development, in January and February of 2003 import of goods grew about 1.times in comparison with the figures registered in the respective period of the preceding year, while output of food industry increased by 3.6 % and production of light industry declined by 2.5 %.

As the rates of growth in domestic production of consumer goods decelerate, the share of imports in the structure of commodity resources increases. While in 2002 the share of imports in the food group was within 30 %, the specific weight of domestically produced non-food goods in the structure of consumer market declined by almost 12.8 p.p.

Chemistry Ferrous metallurgy Light industry Power engineering Forestry Fuel industry Food industry Mechanical engineering Non-ferrous metallurgy Construction materials 15 2001/1 2 3 4 2002/1 2 3 4 --10 The share of food imports The share of non-food imports Food industry Light industry Fig. 2. Changes in output dynamics of light and food industries and the share of imports in commodity resources of the consumer market in 2001 through 2002, in % In the first months of 2002, there was overcome the trend towards a decline in investment demand, what had a positive impact on the dynamics of industrial output. The recovery of positive dynamics in processing industries in January and February of 2003 was supported by a 2.3 % increase in the output of mechanical engineering and 3.0 % growth in construction materials industry. In January through February of this year, there was observed an expansion of the market of domestic investment goods.

As enterprises of ferrous metallurgy increased the number of orders due to the favorable business situation in the industry persisting in the last months, the output of metallurgical mechanical engineering grew by 38.%. Since high levels of demand for services of transport and communications persisted, the production of railway mechanical engineering increased 1.42 times and communications engineering 1.64 times as compared with the figures registered in January through February of 2002. A gradual decline in the intensity of decrease in production of mobile equipment was observed in February of 2003. However, in spite of a growth in output of motor industry registered this February, the volume of production was at 82.9 % of the level of the first two months of the preceding year. The decrease in production of cars by 1/3 in comparison with the figures registered in January and February of 2002 has traditionally negatively affected the dynamics of output of the industry, which does not expect a radical improvement of the situation in the nearest future, since according to the AvtoVAZ plans the enterprise will continue to check its production until April of 2003.

It shall be noted that the trend towards deceleration of growth rates in profits of industries belonging to the real sector of the economy became more perceptible. In January of this year the balanced financial results of industry and construction decreased by 22.9 % and 32.1 % respectively in comparison with the figures registered in January of 2002. Industrial organizations accounted for only 37.4 % of the total financial results of the economy at large, what is by 10.7 p.p. below the levels observed in January of 2002. As concerns processing industries oriented towards the domestic market, there the situation was further aggravated by outpacing growth in production costs resulting from the rise in prices of and tariffs on products and services of natural monopolies and outpacing growth of wages and salaries in comparison with labor productivity.

Tariffs on electric power for all types of consumers increased by 4.1 % in February (the rise in tariffs in this year made 5.8 %). It shall be noted that the Government set a 14 % limit on the growth in tariffs for 2003. In January of 2003, natural gas prices increased by 20 %, while tariffs on freight grew by 6.7 %. The higher levels of costs result in a relative decline in profitability of production and growing deficit of own working capitals, what in turn affects solvency of enterprises and the dynamics of investment activity.

O. Izryadnova Rates of growth in industries Share in commodity resources IET Business Survey: Industry In March, the situation of the Russias industry continued to improve. The index of industrial optimism calculated by IET according to the adjusted European methods increased by 14 points in February through March reaching record highs since October of 2001.

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