The data presented in Fig. 1 demonstrate that since 1992, when the natural decline in the size of the country’s population was first observed, the amount of mi gration based increase permitted to compensate for the natural depopulation processes only in 1994. Year 2006 was not an exception among the last years, when migration only slightly smoothed negative demographic processes. An insig nificant increase in the migration component in the compensation for the natural decline observed in 2006 was generated not by a growth in the number of migrants seeking permanent residence in Russia (this figure amounted for 4.7 per cent as compared with the data registered in 2005), but primarily due to a decline in the documented emigration from the country (which decreased by 24.2 per cent).
Vandysheva O. Glava FMS Konstantin Romodanovsky uveren, chto migranty dlya Rossii – blago (Konstantin Romodanovsky, the head of the Federal Migration Service, is sure that migrants are an asset for Russia) // Komsomolskaya Pravda. December 29, 2006.
For comparison purposes it should be noted that according to a Rosstat forecast for years through 2009 the natural population decline will be up to 2340.5 thousand people.
Section Social Sphere ---Natural increase Migration based increase Note: the data for year 2006 are the author’s estimates, which take into account the data for the pe riod from January through February of 2006 as adjusted for the data for the period from November through December of 2005.
Source: Information on the social and economic situation of Russia in 2006, http://www.gks.ru Fig. 1. Components of the total increase in the size of Russia’s population, 1989 through 2006 (in thous. persons) Immigration In the early and mid 1990s, Russia was among the leading countries as con cerns the number of migrants flowing in the country. Over the last decade, this situation has significantly changed. According to the official data, in 2006 only no more than 185 thousand migrants entered the country, what was 3.5 times below the level registered 10 years ago and more than 6 time below the record high fig ures observed in 1994, the peak year in terms of migration to Russia from the CIS member countries and the Baltic States. The decline in the number of people mi grating to Russia in the 2000s is determined by significant factors of economic, po litical and administrative nature: stabilization of the political situation and waning of active conflicts observed in the former Soviet Republics, which accounted for a mass inflow of forced migrants to Russia in the 1990s; a gradual decline in the “dif ference of economic capacities” of the other countries of the former Soviet Union and Russia; a decrease in the number of people ready to migrate to Russia; more tough and complicated nature of the Russian legislative framework as concerned granting of citizenship and permanent residence, as well as registration proce dures. An important factor was a gradual reassessment of the dominant forms of migration – reorientation from permanent migration to temporary labor migration, at least, as concerned the use thereof as a tentative (assessment, auxiliary) stage prior to permanent migration.
RUSSIAN ECONOMY IN trends and outlooks Similarly to the situation observed in the preceding years, the overwhelming majority of migrants arrived to Russian from the CIS member countries (95.2 per cent, or 96.1 per cent taking into account the migration from the Baltic States). As concerns the absolute figures of immigration, Kazakhstan retained its leading posi tion. However, in the case the current migration trends persist, Uzbekistan can challenge the role of Kazakhstan already in 2007, for the first time in the 1990s. In general, the first three top countries as concerns immigration (alongside with the two countries indicated above this group also includes Ukraine) account for 59.per cent of the number of migrants entering Russia.
The modest general dynamics of migration to Russia from the CIS member countries (an increase in the number of migrants by 5 per cent observed in January through October of 2006 in comparison with the figures registered in the respective period of 2005) were determined by a mix of opposite trends, which include:
- a sharp decline in the number of migrants from Byelorussia (by 21.1 per cent) and especially from rapidly developing Kazakhstan (by 28 per cent);
- a significant growth in the number of people immigrating from Armenia (1.times), Azerbaijan (1.7 times), Moldova and Tajikistan (1.3 times), which as it seems, should be viewed as a statistical artifact: the introduction of the new leg islation concerning Russia’s citizenship in 2002 and related to this fact toughen ing of the migration legislation has significantly deteriorated the inadequate procedures of migration registration16. Most probably, there was really observed a certain increase in migration from these countries, although not such a signifi cant one.
At the same time, the migration exchange with Ukraine and Kazakhstan be came more equal as there were registered three migrants from these countries per one immigrant from Russia leaving for these states. The migration exchange with Byelorussia has been still negative for Russia.
One third of the migrants from the CIS member countries and the Baltic States arrive to the Central federal okrug; however, the South and Volga federal okrugs are also attractive for migrants.
Emigration As the new practices of international labor exchange (work under labor con tracts, study or training abroad) take root in Russia alongside with country wide in troduction of mass communication culture and informatics, it resulted in a sharp (almost 2 times) decline in migration aimed at permanent residence in countries outside of the NIS from Russia in 2006 as compared with the figures observed in 2005. Over the time elapsed since the start of market reforms the most skilled pro fessionals have either left the country or adapted at last to the new economic reali For more details see: Chudinovskikh O. S. Prichiny i posledstviya krizisa rossiyskoi migratsionnoi statistiki (Causes and consequences of a crisis in the Russian migration statistics) // Otechestven nye zapiski. 2004. No. 4. P. 176 – 190. Mkrtchyan N. V. Vozmozhnye prichiny snizheniya immigratsii v Rossiyu v 2000 – 2001 godakh (Possible factors behind a decline in the immigration to Russia in 2000 and 2001) // Voprosy statistiki. 2003. No. 5. P.p. 47 – 52.
Section Social Sphere ties17. The “brain drain” facilitated by the economic problems faced by Russia (low wages and salaries, lack of jobs answering the level of education and training of persons seeking employment, uncertain career prospects18), as well as the sponta neous liberalization of the border regime in the 1990s significantly declined in the 2000s and was replaced by “labor pendulous international migration.” Therefore, in this sphere (in parallel to the similar processes relating to immigration to Russia from the former Soviet Republics) there was observed a partial reorientation from permanent forms of migration to temporary ones. Similarly to the situation in Europe, the concept of “resident” population in Russia is gradually becoming more ambiguous19, whereas labor migration of researchers becomes a reliable way to es tablish international contacts, universalize science and knowledge, and, in the end, to promote globalization.
The composition of skilled professionals emigrating from Russia has also changed: while in the early 1990s the main concerns related to scientists of world wide repute and leaders of scientific schools and disciplines, in the 2000s the ur gent problem was the emigration of graduates of prestigious Russian higher edu cation establishments, as well as students and postgraduate students studying abroad, who sought there permanent residence. In the case these trends become more pronounced, it may facilitate, alongside with creation of other problems, additional “ageing” of the country’s population20.
The interest in ethnic migration continued to wane. The new round of political problems in Israel, one of the main countries for Russia in terms of ethnic migra tion, observed in 2006 just made this trend, which has existed for a long time, more clear. However, the main changes occurred not in connection with Israel, but with Germany – in January through October of 2006 immigration to Germany declined According to the data collected in the framework of survey “Russian students abroad: prospects of return to Russia” yet in 2001 60 per cent of respondents (Russian citizens) being students abroad indicated that they can return to Russia in order to work in accordance with their future professions only on the condition that certain professional environment exists in Russia. The majority of respon dents (61 per cent) noted that the optimal model of professional and migration behavior of people migrating abroad for study can be described as the orientation to reside abroad with the possibility to perform their professional activities in Russia on the basis of temporary labor contracts or by the way of short professional visits. // Ledneva K. Ne poteryayet li Rossiya svoikh Platonov i Nevtonov (Will Russia be able to retain its Newtons and Platos) / Demoskop Weekly. No. 55 – 56.
As concerns the factors behind the “brain drain” observed in the 1990s, for more details see: Ush kalov I. Intellektualnaya migratsiya i bezopasnost (Intellectual migration and security) / Migratsiya i bezopasnost v Rossii (Migration and security in Russia). G. Vitkovskaya, S. Panarin, eds. The Carne gie Moscow Center. M. 2000. P.p. 109 – 151.
Across the major part of Europe, the permanent resident migration continues at present as a result of prior temporary migrations via reunification of families and creation of new families // Materialy Soveta Evropy: “K strategii upravleniya migratsiyei” (Towards a migration management strategy.), CDMG (2000) 11 rev., Brussels, 2000.
At the same time, the age composition of the current migration from Ukraine, Byelorussia, Molda via and even Kazakhstan does not facilitate rejuvenation of the age structure of the Russian popula tion – Menshe detei, bolshe pozhilykh lyudei (Less children, more seniors) / Demoskop Weekly.
2005. No. 185 – 186, January 10 – 23. http://demoscope.ru/weekly/2005/0185/barom02/p RUSSIAN ECONOMY IN trends and outlooks 2.8 times in comparison with the figures registered in the respective period of 2005.
At the same time, there began to be observed opposite flows, for instance, as concerns Israel there were registered 75 immigrants from this country per people leaving Russia for Israel. The same process was observed also with respect to Germany (35 people returning to Russia per 100 immigrants from Russia to Germany). Traditional trends persisted only with respect to migration to the USA (12 repatriates per 100 people leaving Russia for the USA).
In 2006, the trend towards immigration abroad primarily from Russia’s re gions, which has been observed over several years, persisted. Large cities, which provide their residents with a wide range of opportunities as concerns careers, take lower and at most middle positions with respect to immigration.
Source: Information on the social and economic situation of Russia in 2006, http://www.gks.ru Fig. 2. Intensity of immigration to countries outside the NIS in January through October of 2006 (immigrants per 100 thousand persons) Illegal immigration The number of illegal migrants is Russia is considered to be large; however, by definition, difficult to be quantitatively estimated and, therefore, being a tool of political, administrative and economic manipulation. The range of estimates made public in 2006 is very broad:
RF Karelia Moscow Altai krai Adygeya Kalmykia Dagestan Omsk obl.
St. Petersburg Bashkortostan Kemerovo obl.
Krasnodar krai Murmansk obl.
Yevreiskaya AO Khabarovks krai Novosibirsk obl..
Section Social Sphere - World Bank – about 3 million to 3.5 million people21;
- Expert estimates – 3 to 4 million people22;
- K. Romodanovsky, the Head of the RF Federal Migration Service – 10.2 million people (November – December of 200623), 5 million people (January of 2007).
The spread of the figures cited above is evidence of the difficulty of the prob lem to evaluate the number of illegal migrants in Russia. It should be also noted that while the figures presented by the expert community correlate, although slightly, with each other, the estimates published by bureaucrats are, most probably, de termined by current political trends; otherwise it would be difficult to explain the dif ference in estimates making 5 million people within 3 months.
The problem of direct quantitative evaluation of the amounts of illegal migra tion is related to the analysis of the structure of migration flows. Illegal migration consists of several different components: one part is presented by migrants since long resetting to Russia and permanently residing there with their families, but due to various reasons having no legal status; yet another part is labor migrants tempo rarily residing in the country in search of earnings and often having no families; and the third part is seasonal migrants and shuttle traders frequently traveling between Russia and their countries of origin.
It is difficult to evaluate the “contribution” of each of these groups in the total number of illegal migrants staying in Russia; however, otherwise any general esti mates are meaningless (with the exception of being used for political manipulation purposes), whereas the making of efficient decisions becomes impossible. In West Europe, the amounts of temporary labor illegal migrants are estimated to make per cent of the number of legal migrants24. In the case this formula is used with re spect to Russia, it turns out that this group of migrants should make 70 thousand people (the RF Federal Migration Service officially registered 706 thousand people in the first six months of 2006), what hardly reflects the real situation.
The overwhelming majority of illegal migrants (up to 90 per cent25) flow in Rus sia from the neighboring countries of the former Soviet Union. Other 10 per cent of illegal migrants arrive from countries outside the NIS, primarily from South East Asia.
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