WWW.DISSERS.RU


...
    !

Pages:     | 1 |   ...   | 79 | 80 || 82 | 83 |   ...   | 134 |

3.5.4. Production of agricultural inputs Farm machine building follows the trend of agriculture after a short upsurge in the early 2000s its growth is slowing down (Table 59). Still, producers of grain harvesters managed to enlarge export supplies 5 fold as compared with 2000 thus supporting the upward trend in the sector. Exports of tractors remain insignificant and therefore shrinking domestic demand results in their smaller production. Cur Thous. rubles Section The Real Sector rently annual domestic production of farm machinery amounts to about 1 billion dollars. Imports total about 2/3 of this amount, exports 10 12%17.

Table Production of selected farm inputs, thousand pieces 1990 1995 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 Tractors 214 21.2 19.2 14.2 9.2 8.1 8.7 5.5 5.Tractor ploughs 85.7 4 2.8 3.1 2.3 1 1.2 1.8 1.Tractor seeders 51.1 1.6 5.2 6.4 5.3 4.2 5.7 6.5 5.Tractor cultivators 101 2 4.7 5.6 5.6 6.2 6.7 8.6 Grain harvesters 65.7 6.2 5.2 9.1 7.5 5.4 7.9 7.5 6.Mineral fertilizers, million tons 16.0 9.6 12.2 13.0 13.6 14.1 15.7 16.6 16.Source: Federal Service of State Statistics.

Production of mineral fertilizers is still export oriented while domestic con sumption grows at a low rate. However, their application for producing the most profitable crops displays much better dynamics.

Table Application of mineral fertilizers in Russian agriculture 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 Applied total, million nutrient tons 1.4 1.3 1.5 1.3 1.4 1. Per 1 ha of planted area, kg all crops 19 19 21 21 23 cereals 20 22 25 24 26 sugar beets 119 139 166 177 223 flax 73 58 49 49 45 sunflower 6 8 12 13 14 vegetables and melons 84 82 92 97 115 potatoes 155 154 160 186 184 fodder crops 13 12 11 11 10 Share of fertilized area, % 27 28 30 29 31 Source: Federal Service of State Statistics.

3.5.5. Food industry In the Russian food industry production grows at noticeably higher rates as compared with agriculture but here too the growth is slowing down versus 2001 indicators (Fig. 57).

Similar to agriculture food industry displays very different dynamics by sub sectors. Production of some food products, e.g. vegetable oils and sugar, has al ready exceeded the Soviet period indicators. Pre reform production levels of some other products, e.g. sausages, pastas and margarine are nearly restored (Ta ble 61). Growth in the milk and meat sub sectors is strongly constrained by income trends in the lower income groups but is still continuing at a rather high pace.

Data of Soyuzagromach.

RUSSIAN ECONOMY IN trends and outlooks ------Source: Federal Service of State Statistics.

Fig. 57. Russian food industry: percent change of annual output Table Production of basic food products, thousand tons 1990 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 Meat 6484 2370 1900 1510 1315 1113 1193 1284 1456 1677 1698 1827 Sausages 2283 1293 1296 1147 1087 948 1052 1224 1468 1700 1832 1957 Butter 833 421 323 292 276 262 267 271 279 285 271 277 n.a.

Dairy products*, mil 20.8 5.6 5.3 5.2 5.6 5.6 6.2 6.7 7.7 8.5 8.7 9.5 10.lion tons Vegetable oils 1159 802 879 687 782 881 1375 1281 1197 1598 1867 2206 Granulated sugar 3758 3155 3294 3778 4745 6808 6077 6590 6165 5841 4852 5588 Flour, million tons 20.7 14 11.8 12.2 12 12.7 12.1 12 10.9 11.2 10.8 10.2 10.Groats 2854 1418 988 992 1085 899 932 994 951 890 893 926 Pasta 1038 603 444 453 554 707 704 764 821 874 950 982 n.a.

Margarine products 808 198 200 222 239 379 462 515 536 542 561 630 n.a.

* in liquid milk equivalent Source: Federal Service of State Statistics.

The demand for food products grows faster than average real incomes. The demand for fruits and cheese (i.e. very income elastic products) expands at the highest rate in recent years their sales increase by over 10% annually. Sales of poultry meat also grow fast faster than the overall meat sales implying change in the structure of meat consumption.

The most expectable trends in the development of food industry in the coming years are the consolidation of assets, establishment of large national companies (primarily through taking over/affiliation of provincial enterprises) and further growth of foreign investments.

One more noticeable development trend is the strong impetus to integrate both up and down the food chain.

3.5.6. Foreign trade in agricultural and food products The role of Russia on the world agricultural and food markets is steadily grow ing: in recent years the volume of foreign trade in respective commodities in 1986-2005 as % of Section The Real Sector creased remarkably and in 2006 reached 22 billion dollars the record level for the last 12 years.

The growth of foreign trade turnover is due to the expansion of both imports and exports (Fig. 58). Its noteworthy that exports grow faster: in 11 months their value was over 3.5 fold above the 1998 indicators while that of imports only 1.7 fold.

While in the first after crisis years the enlargement of export supplies was pri marily due to the ruble devaluation, at present the trend is supported by the strengthening of domestic agricultures position on the world markets of some products. Imports continue to increase due to the sustained growth of consumer demand in the situation of slowing down progress in the domestic agrifood sector.

Although growth rates of agricultural and food exports were usually above those of imports, Russia still retains its status of traditional net importer of these commodities. The negative trend in the dynamics of agrifood foreign trade deficit that took a start in 2000 still continues (Fig. 58). The negative balance of trade in respective items amounts to about 13 billion rubles.

---exports imports balance -* less trade with Belarus.

Source: calculated using data of RF Federal Customs Service.

Fig. 58. Foreign trade in agricultural and food products, million dollars* The recovery growth that started in the domestic agrifood sector in 1999 re vealed the basic segments where Russia has competitive advantages on external and home markets. This had an obvious impact on the commodity structure of for eign trade.

Grains became the principal item of Russian export having surpassed such a traditional item as fish and sea products (Fig. 59). In 2005 they accounted for mln. dollars hs ont 11 m RUSSIAN ECONOMY IN trends and outlooks 34.6% of the total food exports. The share of oilseeds in the export structure fell while that of sunflower oil increased (Fig. 59, Table 62).

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 fish and sea products milk and milk products cereals oilseeds animal and vegetable fats and oils sugar and sugar confectionery alcohol and beverages other * less trade with Belarus.

Source: calculated using data of RF Federal Customs Service.

Fig. 59. Structure of Russian agricultural and food export, %* Table Exports of basic agricultural and food products in 2000 2006, thousand tons* 9 months 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 as % of 9 months Frozen fish 290.6 324.1 292.8 255.0 142.5 243.1 103.Wheat and wheat/rye 419.0 1635.7 10259.3 7587.9 4671.3 10319.6 93.8** mix Barley 539.4 1594.7 3026.2 3099.0 955.0 1767.7 n.a.

Wheat flour 165.7 n.a. 122.8 288.6 134.3 231.0 105.Sunflower oil 194.8 115.3 74.2 84.1 145.1 313.6 264.Sunflower seeds 1114.9 n.a. 86.8 292.1 124.4 284.7 261.Bread and bakery 34.3 36.9 38.6 52.6 64.4 75.3 106.products Condensed milk and 73.7 45.6 35.0 11.3 35.4 41.2 76.cream Chocolate and cocoa 25.7 35.1 35.1 42.2 54.2 69.4 94.products * less trade with Belarus.

** 11 months 2006 as % of 11 months 2005.

Source: RF Federal Customs Service.

Section The Real Sector 0,0 10,0 20,0 30,0 40,0 50,0 60,0 70,0 80,0 90,0 100,meat and meat products fish and sea products milk and milk products cereals vegetables and fruits oilseeds animal and vegetable fats and oils sugar and sugar confectionery alcohol and beverages other * less trade with Belarus.

Source: calculated using data of RF Federal Customs Service.

Fig. 60. Structure of Russian agricultural and food import, %* Table Imports of basic agricultural and food products in 2000 2006, thousand tons* 11 months 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 as % of months Beef 282.3 459.2 504.6 507.8 510.9 696.101.Pork 212.9 369.6 602.0 535.2 455.2 562.Poultry meat 687.2 1383.3 1375.2 1190.0 1101.3 1318.5 97.Condensed milk and 48.0 85.4 11.8 26.5 35.9 35.5 24.cream Butter 45.4 81.4 94.1 114.0 70.3 66.0 142.Sunflower oil 149.5 182.8 175.7 200.8 160.4 131.2 74.Wheat and 2631.3 916.2 264.8 640.7 1364.1 577.1 2.9 fold wheat/rye mix Corn 702.2 206.8 448.9 209.5 448.8 200.6 150.Meat products and 20.6 25.1 19.2 24.7 34.3 33.7 77.canned meat Raw sugar 4546.6 5410.4 4441.0 4112.0 2582.9 2892.9 83.White sugar 271.4 143.1 163.2 151.1 200.1 144.9 75.Citrus fruits 472.2 562.1 701.3 781.1 858.4 952.6 125.Coffee 20.3 21.6 25.7 32.0 29.4 39.7 133.Tea 158.3 154.4 165.3 168.9 172.1 179.6 96.* less trade with Belarus.

Source: RF Federal Customs Service.

RUSSIAN ECONOMY IN trends and outlooks The commodity structure of import has also changed in recent years. After the introduction of meat quotas in 2003 imports of meat (except beef) fell but already in 2005 2006 started to restore (Table 63). Its noteworthy that import supplies of meat exceed the set quotas. Meat still remains the principal item of Russian agri food imports accounting for 20% thereof (Fig. 60).

The government foreign trade policy also influenced dynamics of sugar im ports. Despite its bottlenecks (see the foreign trade policy section) the mechanism of variable import duty on raw sugar enforced in 2004 still resulted in smaller sup plies from abroad (Table 63) thus encouraging rapid development of domestic sugar beet production. The trend became most apparent in 2006.

Russia becomes a stable exporter of grain All pessimistic forecasts saying that Russia has traditionally been an importer of grain, has no export infrastructure and therefore cannot export more than 5 million tons of grain a year have been disproved by massive export shipments that started in 2002 (Fig. 61). They were encouraged by low prices on the domestic market and high prices on the world market. Having appraised the benefits of grain export, pri vate business started to make large scale investments in the construction of re spective port facilities. The government also allocated funds from the federal budget for partial subsidizing of interest on long term credits for construction of port elevators. Now its obvious that Russia becomes a stable exporter of grain. It occupied its niche on the world market exporting annually from 5 to 10 million tons depending on the domestic market situation.

2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07* exports imports * forecast.

Source: WJ InterAgro.

Fig. 61. Exports of grain from Russia, thousand tons Section The Real Sector In 2006 the competitiveness of Russian grain export was to some extent im paired by higher domestic prices for grain due to the development of livestock sec tor (hog and poultry production) and bigger consumption of grain for feeding pur poses. However, the negative effect of this factor was somewhat mitigated by the upward price trend on the world market (Fig. 62). The foreign trade prospects for Russian exporters are not clear enough. In late 2006 early 2007 growth of the world prices was superseded by their fall (Fig. 62) due to better crop forecasts in the US and EU. On the other hand, the still rather high prices on the world markets will result in smaller demand from African and Middle East countries being the key buyers of Russian grain. It should be noted that in recent years the geographic structure of Russian grain export changed. India became one of the largest import ers of grain from Russia. Due to the effective quota restrictions on supply of grain to the EU Russian traders gradually move to other regions in 2006 the EU coun tries accounted for only 9% of the total Russian grain exports (Fig. 63).

HRW 11% SRW SRW soft red winter wheat.

HRW 11.0 hard red winter wheat, protein content 11% (moisture 12%).

Source: WJ InterAgro.

Fig. 62. Prices for US wheat, $/ton FOB Gulf Table The world wheat supply and utilization balance 2002/2003 2003/2004 2004/2005 2005/2006 2006/2007* Production 565 556 629 618 Trade 107 103 110 108 Consumption 601 595 616 622 Ending stocks 165 125 138 135 * estimate.

Source: International Grains Council (IGC), http://www.zol.ru.

20.08.17.09.15.10.12.11.10.12.21.01.18.03.15.04.13.05.08.07.05.08.30.09.28.10.25.11.23.12.03.02.03.03.31.03.28.04.26.05.23.06.18.08.15.09.13.10.10.11.08.12.05.01.18.02.02.09.23.07.21.07.10.06.RUSSIAN ECONOMY IN trends and outlooks 2006 Saudi Egypt Arabia Other Other 20% 15% countries countries 27% 32% Ukraine 12% India 15% Israel 8% EU-9% Bangladesh EU-(incl. EU-10% 19% - 8%) Azerbaijan Egypt (incl. EU-15 Georgia 7% 7% Georgia - 14%) 3% Turkey Saudi Arabia 6% 4% 6% Source: calculated using data of WJ InterAgro.

Fig. 63. Geographic structure of Russian grain export These are not only exports of grain that expand in recent years exports of flour grow as well (Fig. 64). This is due to smaller domestic consumer demand for flour conditioned by diminishing population and decreasing average per capita consumption of flour in Russia18. So, the expansion of foreign demand can well be come the factor counteracting stagnation of flourmill industry. From 2000 to the output of flour fell by 15.7%, output of bread by 14%.

State policies dont always favour the expansion of grain export. In 2004 its volume fell notably due not only to poor crop in 2003 but also to the introduction of temporary restrictions on export of rye, wheat and wheat/rye mix. Grain interven tions carried out in the country affect exporters interests: they are supposed to raise domestic prices but no compensation is envisaged for exporters. In conditions for Russian grain export deteriorated due to higher transportation and port service tariffs. In 2007 railway tariffs were raised once again.

According to data of the SovEcon Analytical Center the average per capita consumption of flour in Russia fell from 96 kg in 2000 to 92 kg in 2006.

Section The Real Sector 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-exports imports Source: WJ InterAgro.

Pages:     | 1 |   ...   | 79 | 80 || 82 | 83 |   ...   | 134 |



2011 www.dissers.ru -

, .
, , , , 1-2 .