Favorable situation at the world market secured a considerable growth of con tract prices for the main items of Russian export. Over 2006 the average weighted contract prices for oil in non CIS countries increased by 24.8% in comparison with 2005. The average export contract price for Russian oil in 2006 was equal to USD 429.8 per ton. In August 2006 the average contract price for oil reached its maximum level of USD 485.4 per ton. Since September 2006 the trend for price decrease evolved, price being approximately USD 400 per ton by the end of the year, which corresponds to the price level of January February 2006 (Table 53).
Average export prices for cast iron, ferroalloys, iron ore materials, coke sup plied to non CIS countries decreased in comparison with 2005 by 10.9%, 5.7%, 23.8% and 34.4% correspondingly, and for steel pipes went up by 18.5%.
Export prices for unprocessed aluminum increased in 2006 in comparison with 2005 by 25.7%, for copper – by 87.7%, for nickel – by 59.2%, for aluminum wares – by 15.2%, for copper goods – by 78.5%.
Table Share of Export in the Output of Major Products (%) 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 Crude oil 41.5 41.7 41.6 45.2 44.2 44.8 46.5 49.7 53.1 56.1 54.0 57.Oil prod 25.8 32.4 34.7 32.9 33.6 36.3 35.5 40.8 40.9 42.1 46.7 47.ucts Natural gas 32.2 33.1 35.2 34.5 34.6 33.2 31.2 31.2 32.7 33.9 34.2 31.Coal 17.1 15.8 14.5 15.7 16.7 25.7 22.2 23.8 30.8 52.9 51.8 53.Mineral 83.9 85.9 80.6 86.5 83.2 82.9 81.8 78.1 76.1 78.5 74.5 62.fertilizers Round 22.3 23.2 29.3 34.1 40.1 42.4 53.4 51.0 46.1 49.6 60.1 61.wood Chemical 74.8 85.7 82.8 77.6 79.1 82.4 83.7 85.1 82.9 77.5 79.7 79.wood pulp Commer 71.1 72.2 70.1 74.6 70.6 69.0 67.4 68.6 66.0 65.6 61.2 57.cial paper Iron and steel flat 53.1 59.7 58.6 63.5 60.6 55.3 43.0 50.5 47.1 46.1 48.4 39.sections Passenger 16.7 10.4 4.9 8.3 7.3 12.2 10.1 12.3 11.7 11.8 12.5 10.cars Trucks 25.4 17.4 10.7 9.6 8.3 7.0 12.3 20.8 19.3 23.0 22.8 20.Source: Federal Statistics Service, Federal Customs Service 3.4.4. Import Russian import reached in 2006 its maximum over the last 15 years level, con siderably exceeding previous years figures. Over 2006 the goods worth USD 163.bln. were imported, which is by 30.8% higher than the similar figure of 2005. Goods worth USD 138.6 bln. were imported from non CIS countries, growth being 34%, from CIS countries – worth USD 25.2 bln., growth of 15.6%. In the total amount of import the share of non CIS countries was equal to 84.6% in 2006, in 2005 – 82.6% (Table 55).
Table Import to Russia (as USD bln.) 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 Import, total 68.1 72.0 58.0 39.5 44.9 53.8 60.5 76.1 97.4 125.3 163.including:
non CIS 47.3 53.4 43.7 29.2 31.4 40.3 48.2 60.1 76.4 103.5 138.countries Growth rates, as % vs. the previous year Quantity 98.1 121.1 89.0 84.4 129.2 129.1 117.6 119.2 124.2 122.4 130.index Price index 100.2 94.8 92.3 82.1 86.7 94.3 93.4 98.7 106.1 106.5 105.Source: the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, the Ministry of Economic Development and Trade The growth of the domestic demand due to the incomes increase in the envi ronment of ruble appreciation continued to have intensifying influence on the in crease of physical volumes of import for nearly whole range of goods.
Section The Real Sector Real effective ruble exchange rate against the currency basket of the main Russia’s trade partners went up by 7.4% in comparison with December 2005. At the same time real ruble exchange rate against US dollar increased by 16.7%, against euro – by 5.6%.
Real effective ruble exchange rate averaged through January to December 2006, in comparison with January December 2005 increased by 9.4%, to US dollar increase being, in particular, 10.7%, to euro – 11.5%.
It should be remembered that in 2005 real effective ruble exchange rate to the currency basket of Russian main trade partner countries went up by 10.5%, real exchange rate of ruble to dollar increasing by 3.9%, to euro – by 18.8%.
One additional factor, which affected the growth of import supplies, was the improvement in customs regulations. The difference between the volume of declared goods and goods really imported in 2006 was the lowest over 10 years.
Whereas in 1996 invisible import reached the proportion of 44.7% of the official, in 2006 it decreased to 20.7%, being 29% in 2005.
The increase of import was observed over almost all range of goods. The machine building production import developed most dynamically. In 2006 the proportion of this kind of production in the structure of Russian import reached the level of 48.1%, exceeding 2005 figures by 3.6 p.p. The monetary volume of machinery, equipment and transport vehicles import increased by 52.3% in 2006 in comparison with 2005.
The increase of the total amount of the import of machinery and equipment was assisted by the sustaining trend for official import of household appliances and radio electronics growth. Thus from January to September 2006 import supplies of mobile phones to Russia increased more than by 3.3 times, which is equal to mln. of phones, in comparison with the corresponding period of 2005, the average price of the phone being imported increased over this period from USD 39.3 to 149.2. Total value of the imported mobile phones increased by 12.75 times – up to USD 2.84 bln.
From January to September 2006 there were by 2.56 times more of laptops imported than in the corresponding period of the previous year, customs value of supplies increasing by 4.6 times up to USD 163.6 mln. Such growth of import supplies is most likely accounted for by the measures against illegal goods import and undercharging of the declared customs value.
The additional stimulus for the increase in machinery and equipment import in 2006 was nullification of import customs duties for a large list of technological production items, analogues of which are not produced in Russia.
The share of foodstuffs and agriculture raw materials in the total amount of Russian import in 2006 decreased down to 15.6% against 17.5% in 2005. The monetary volume of this kind of goods increased by 25%. The biggest increase was observed for meat and meat products, sugar, confectionery and fruit import.
The proportion of the third in the order of importance goods group – chemistry industry production – decreased from 17 to 16.2%. In 2006 chemistry RUSSIAN ECONOMY IN trends and outlooks production import comprised USD 21.2 bln., which is 134% against the level of 2005.
Goods range and assortment for chemistry and petrochemistry production import is considerably larger than export assortment, which is orientated towards raw materials, and represents mainly the deep processed goods. The main import nomenclature is plastic wares, varnish and paint materials, plastics and synthetic resins, polyester fibers and plants protection substances.
Among other items of import supplies it was textile production and footwear supply that was characterized by high growth rates. In 2006 the goods of light in dustry worth USD 4.8 bln. were imported, which is by 158.4% higher than over the corresponding period of the previous year.
Monetary volume of clothes and footwear export in 2006 went up by record 87%.
Footwear import from CIS countries was 58.3% (in total USD 6.5 mln.) higher, and from non CIS countries by 2.1 times higher (in total 651.5 mln.). It should be re membered that in 1996 customs duty for footwear at the rate of 20% was imple mented, after which legal import of footwear decreased nearly by half. The situa tion was radically changed only in 2006 when the double scale of rating was introduced: for expensive footwear the duty was reduced to 10%, for cheap re mained at the level of 20%.
The growth of population real incomes contributed to the increase in luxury goods import. Import of rawstocks, furs and respective goods increased by 63.1%, of precious stones and metals and goods thereof – by 26.7%.
Other goods 3,2% Mineral products Foodstuffs and agricultural raw 2,4% materials (excluding textile) 15,3% Fuel and energy products 1,4% Chemical products, rubber 15,9% Rawstocks, furs and goods thereof 0,3% Machinery, equipment and transport vehicles 47,4% Wood and pulp-and-paper products 2,8% Textile, textile goods, footwear 3,7% Precious stones, precious metals and goods thereof Metals and metal goods 0,2% 7,3% Source: Federal Customs Service of the Russian Federation Fig. 39. Goods structure of Russian Import in 2006 (%) Section The Real Sector In May 2006 the trend for anticipating growth rates of import to Russia against Russian export evolved. While in the 1st quarter of 2006 the export supply grew up by 34.5% as compared with the corresponding period of the previous year, the im port supply by 23.5%, in the 2nd quarter their growth rates were almost equal – 28.6 и 29.1, correspondingly, and in the 3rd quarter the export growth rates were far behind the import figures – 23.1 and 31.6, correspondingly. In the 4th quarter this lag grew further: export grew up by 16.8% in comparison with the 4th quarter 2005, while import by 35.7%.
The trade balance surplus growth rates declined as a result. While in 2004 as compared with 2003 the balance grew by 43.4%, in 2005 – by 37.8%, in 2006 it grew only by 18.9%.
In 2006 positive trade balance in the amount of RUR 140.6 bln was formed. At the same time the disequilibrium coefficient of the foreign trade (the ratio of trade balance surplus to foreign trade turnover) was a bit lower than in 2005 (30 and 32.1% correspondingly).
In 2006 the index of foreign trade environment with non CIS countries – the ratio of export and import prices – was equal to 1.14, being 1.22 in 2005.
3.4.5. Geographic Structure of Foreign Trade The EU remains the biggest economic partner when geographic structure is concerned. Its share in 2006 was equal to 52.7% of Russian goods turnover (in 2005 – 52.0%). (Fig. 40) the share of CIS countries continues to decrease:
whereas in 2005 its share was equal to 15.2% of the Russian trade turnover, in 2006it was 14.7%, at the same time the share of the countries of Euro Asian Eco nomic Community remained approximately at the same level of 7.7% (in 2005 it was 7.8%).
The trade collaboration with the countries of Asia Pacific Economic Coopera tion expands. Their share in Russian trade turnover increased up to 17.1% against 16.2% in 2005.
The major Russian trade partners among non CIS countries in 2006 were Germany, with the turnover of USD 42.9 bln. (130.1% against 2005), Netherlands – USD 38.5 bln. (145.1%), Italy – USD 30.8 bln. (131.4%), China – USD 28.6 bln.
(141.0%), Turkey – USD 17.0 bln. (135.6%), the USA – USD 15.3 bln. (140.7%), Poland – USD 14.9 bln. (130.9%), the UK – USD 14.0 bln. (126.9%), France – USD 13.5 bln. (137.5%), Switzerland – USD 13.4 bln. (114.7%).
RUSSIAN ECONOMY IN trends and outlooks 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 2003 January-April May-December 2005 2004 EU Candidates for EU APEC CIS Other countries Source: Federal Customs Service of the Russian Federation Fig. 40. Geographic Structure of Russia’s Foreign Trade GERMANY NETHERLANDS ITALY CHINA UKRAINE BELARUS TURKEY USA 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000 export import Fig. 41. Principal Trade Partners (USD mln.) Section The Real Sector In contrast to export where the increase of monetary volumes to non CIS countries was a bit lower than to CIS countries (+24.3 and +29.5%, correspond ingly), in the import geographical structure it was the cooperation with non CIS countries that developed notably more intensively than with the partners among CIS countries (in comparison with 2005 – 34% against 15.6%). This was also pro moted by significantly bigger appreciation of ruble exchange rate to dollar and euro than to CIS countries currencies. Thus, according to the National Bank of Belarus sia data, the real appreciation of Russian currency over 10 months of 2006 to Bela russian ruble was 5.6%, to hryvna – 2.5%, to Khazakhstanian tenge – the deprecia tion of 0.9%. Besides, structure causes are also of some importance: the most demanded group of import commodities – machinery and equipment – is pur chased chiefly in non CIS countries.
As a result of 2006 the leader among CIS countries in the trading volume with Russia was the Ukraine, the growth of commodity turnover with which was 19.7% up to USD 24.197 bln. The Russian export to the Ukraine increased by 20.8% up to USD 14.978 bln, while import – by 17.9% up to USD 9.218 bln. The second place is held by Belarus. The commodity turnover between Russia and Belarus grew by 25.9% up to USD 19.934 bln. Khazahstan, the volume of mutual trade with which increased by 31.2% up to USD 12.808 bln, holds the third place.
3.4.6. Foreign Trade Regulation In the sphere of tariff regulations the issues of import and export customs du ties amendments for a set of goods were considered.
In connection with the change in the world prices for oil the export duties rates for oil and oil products were reconsidered for a number of times (Table 56).
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