Table Average Annual World Prices 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 Oil (Brent), USD per bar 221,33 117,4 114,1 115,9 228,19 224,843 225,022 228,83 337,4 554,38 665,rel Natural gas, USD per 1 11,9642 22,5469 2,1876 4,3442 3,9764 3,3857 5,461 5,993 8,870 12,mln. BTU Petroleum, USD per gal 0,71 0,615 0,511 0,529 0,887 0,7922 0,755 0,891 1,197 1,508 1,lon Copper, USD 2574,9 2369,7 1775,3 1539,9 1863,9 1613,6 1592,9 1785,6 2808,2 3606 6851,per ton Aluminum, 1590,2 1554,0 1413,5 1318,0 1550,0 1444,7 1350,7 1424,7 1693,2 1871 2619,USD per ton Nickel, USD 8053,9 7312,4 5352,5 5239,5 8624,0 5966,0 6175,1 9580,8 13757 14692 per ton Source: calculated on the basis of London Metal Exchange, International Petroleum Exchange (Lon don) data 3.4.3. Export Sustaining favorable situation at the world market had a positive influence on the development of Russian export, which exceeded the annual figures over the last 17 years in 2006. In 2006 the monetary value of Russian export was equal to USD 304.5 bln., which is 25% higher than in 2005. At the same time the growth proceeded both due to the increase of export sales to non CIS countries (growth RUSSIAN ECONOMY IN trends and outlooks by 24.3%) and to CIS countries, where goods worth USD 43.4 bln. were exported, which exceeded the corresponding figure for 2005 by 29.5%.
Table The Dynamics of Russian Export 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 Export, as USD 89.7 86.9 74.4 75.6 105.0 101.9 107.2 135.4 183.2 245.3 304.bln.
non CIS countries 71.1 67.8 58.7 63.6 90.8 86.6 91.0 113.9 152.9 211.6 261.Growth rates, as percentage to the previous year Quantity index 100.1 101.8 99.7 109.4 110.2 104.2 115.0 109.5 110.7 104.7 105.Price index 108.6 98.1 84.2 92.1 128.2 93.8 86.0 113.4 122.7 126.9 119.Source: the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, the Ministry of Economic Development and Trade Nevertheless throughout 2006 the trend for the decrease in growth rates of Russian export outlined. In August its volume increased by 30.3%, whereas in Sep tember – by 19% and in October – only by 12.2%, in November – by 14.9% as compared with the corresponding months of 2005. This is happening due to the drop in oil prices, which began in the middle of the year, as well as the growth of competition at the markets, where Russia was a traditional supplier. For instance, in the Middle East fresh capacities are being put into operation in chemical industry, China is reducing Russian metallurgy import because of the increase in domestic output.
According to the data of the Bank of Russia, efficiency index for exportation of the set of goods, including 75% of the Russian export value, was on average equal to 1.06 within January August 2006, in January August 2005 being 1.14.
The profitability of raw materials export decreases mainly due to the change for the worse in the situation at the world market of mineral resources used as sources of power by the end of the year, of non raw materials export – due to the appreciation of ruble. The decrease in export growth rates starts to have a slow down effect on the development of the economy.
In export structure the significance of mineral resources used as sources of power continued to increase: in all more than 80% of the increase in monetary vol ume of export sales was accounted for by mineral products.
High export growth rates were mainly accounted for by a considerable in crease in world prices for raw materials. Oil, oil products and gas export in terms of value increased by 33.6%, while other goods export – by 12.7%.
The average world price for oil grade Urals was at the level of USD 57.1 per barrel in December 2006. As a result, even though in the fourth quarter the prices for oil dropped by 14.7% as compared with the preceding quarter, the average price for this Russian oil grade in 2006 was equal to USD 61.0 per barrel, being 21.1% higher than the figure of 2005.
Section The Real Sector 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 Oil Oil products Gas Others Fig. 37. Russian Export (bln. USD) In 2006 the profit of Russian oil exporters increased by 22% from USD 79.bln. last year to USD 96.675 bln.
According to the Federal Customs Service data, last year the volume of Rus sian oil export shipment was equal to 227.538 mln. tons, which is by 2.4% lower than in 2005 – 233.147 mln. tons. Crude oil supplies to non CIS countries de creased by 1.6% from 214.435 mln. tons down to 211.171 mln. tons. At the same time the monetary volume increased by 23%. The suppliers’ profit was equal to USD 90.755 bln. against USD 73.826 bln. in 2005. Crude oil supplies to CIS coun tries decreased by 12.5% from 18.711 mln. tons down to 16.367 mln. tons. In pe cuniary terms export to CIS countries increased from USD 5.39 bln. up to USD 5.919 bln. The export volume of oil products in monetary terms increased by 31.4% up to USD 44.217 bln. against USD 33.65 bln. in 2005. The physical volume of oil products export supplies was equal to 102.278 mln. tons, which is by 6% more than last year – 96.451 mln. tons (Fig. 37).
Shipping of diesel fuel increased by 6.7% up to 36.057 mln. tons, exporters’ profit – by 25% up to USD 20.246 bln. The volume of motor petrol supplies in creased from 5.922 mln. tons up to 6.268 mln. tons, exporters’ profit – from USD 2.477 bln. up to USD 3.403 bln. Black oil supplies increased from 45.843 mln. of tons up to 47.534 mln. tons, in pecuniary terms – by 34.5% up to USD 13.718 bln.
In 2006 gas export from Russia decreased by 3% down to 182 bln. cu. m from 187.2 bln. cu. m in the corresponding period of 2005. Exporters’ profit grew by 40% from USD 30.424 bln. up to USD 42.16 bln. Gas export supplies from the RUSSIAN ECONOMY IN trends and outlooks Russian Federation to non CIS countries increased by 1.3% from 159.8 bln. cu. m up to 161.8 bln. cu. m, whereas to CIS countries decreased by 26.3% from 27.bln. cu. m down to 20.2 bln. cu. m.
Table Monetary Volumes of Russian Export of Oil, Oil Products and Gas (as USD mln) and Their Proportion in the Aggregate Volume of Russian Export (%) Oil Oil products Gas USD mln. % USD mln. % USD mln. % 1992 6662 12.4 2202 4.1 6389 11.1993 8061 13.5 3061 5.1 6964 11.1994 8948 13.3 3398 5.0 7939 11.1995 12297 15.2 4108 5.1 13381 16.1996 15578 17.6 7442 8.4 14683 16.1997 14346 16.2 7145 8.1 16420 18.1998 10254 13.7 4262 5.7 … … 1999 14101 18.8 4713 6.3 … … 2000 25284 24.1 10938 10.6 16644 16.2001 24576 24.1 9402 9.4 18303 18.2002 28950 27.0 11227 10.5 15897 14.2003 38816 28.6 14064 10.5 19981 15.2004 55024 30.0 18998 10.5 20918 11.2005 79216 32.5 33650 13.6 30424.2 12.2006 96675 31.7 44217 14.5 42160 14.Source: Federal Statistics Service, Federal Customs Service data Russia remains a large scale exporter of metals, which is the evidence of competitive capacity of Russian goods.
Metals and metal goods are the goods group of second importance in Rus sian export. The share of this goods group was equal to 13.9%, having decreased by 0.4 p.p. as compared with 2005.
In 2006 metal and metal goods export was equal to USD 40.1 bln. (121.7% versus 2005), including to CIS countries USD 36.5 bln. (120.7%), to CIS coun tries – USD 3.6 bln (133.2%).
Ferrous metals export decreased by 0.2% and was equal to USD 17.8 bln, in cluding to non CIS countries – USD 16.1 bln (decrease by 2.1%), to CIS coun tries – USD 17.1 bln (increase by 22.4%). The main export product is rolled metal whose share in ferrous metals export value is equal to 60%.
In 2006 the physical volume of ferrous rolled metals export (prepared raw ma terials, profiled iron and sheet products) was equal to 28.4 mln. tons (96.4% versus 2005). At the same time the rolled metal export to non CIS countries decreased by 6.2% (being 25.5 mln of tons), including profiled metal – by 24.9%, sheet goods – by 14.5%. Export of half finished products increased by 4.3%.
Export prices for steel half finished products and sheet goods increased by 3.6%, for profiled iron – by 11.9% over 2006. The main increase in prices fell on the II half year of 2006.
Section The Real Sector The decrease in the physical volumes of the export of ferrous metals rolling was caused by the limitations implemented my many countries for the import of Russian metal production, as well as the decrease in the supplies to the Asian region which is accounted for by the increase of China rolling supplies to the main sales markets, first of all in countries of East and South East Asia.
Thereupon the export of sheet products from Russia to Asia region has dimin ished by nearly 80% (including to China – by 93.5%), the export of profiled iron – by 605%, including to China – by 20%.
Russian exporters of ferrous metals were able to redirect the supplies to other ex ternal markets. The rolled metal export to North America (USA, Canada), Europe, South America, and countries of Africa has increased. Middle East is still a promis ing market. In 2006 the supplies of ferrous metals produced in Russia were made to 90 countries of the world.
In 2006 there increased physical volumes of export supplies of cast iron (by 15.6%) and iron ore materials (by 24.2%), decreased export supplies of coke (by 45.4%), ferroalloys (by 12.5%), steel pipes (by 12.4%). At the same time the supplies to non CIS countries of cast iron (by 14.5%) and iron ore materials (by 30%) increased, but supplies of coke (by 55%), ferroalloys (by 13%), steel pipes (by 30.3%) decreased as a result of supplies decrease to EU countries because of limitations implementation for seamless pipes.
Russian metallurgists operated most successfully at the markets of CIS countries.
The ferrous metals rolling export to CIS countries increased in 2006 by 26.8% against 2005, including profiled iron – by 25.8%, of sheet products – by 22.2%, of steel pipes – by 24.1%.
The monetary volume of main non ferrous metals (aluminum, copper, nickel) export to non CIS countries exceeded the level of 2005 by 50.2%. The export growth was reached mainly due to the increase in export prices. Thus, average prices for aluminum grew up by 24.4%, for nickel – by 55.6%, for copper – by 87%.
At the same time the physical volumes of export of unprocessed aluminum went up by 9.6%, of nickel decreased by 0.7%, of purified copper – by 12.8%.
It is remarkable that the equipment and machinery export grew up intensively in monetary terms: in 2006 monetary volume of this goods group increased by 29.7% against 2005. Thus, despite the fact that considerable appreciation of ruble against dollar and euro must have a negative impact on technological export, the positive dynamics sustains. Nearly half of machinery and equipment export is made to CIS countries, against whose currencies ruble appreciated negligibly. Another explana tory factor is a gradual implementation of the government program of financial and guaranteeing support of industrial export, which lead to the conclusion of several big contracts.
Nevertheless the share of machinery, equipment and transport vehicles in the total volume of the Russian export remains at the low level of 5.5% (in 2005 it was 5.3%).
RUSSIAN ECONOMY IN trends and outlooks Machinery, equipment and transport vehicles 5,5% Food stuf f s and raw Other goods 1,0% agricultural materials Metal and metal goods 1,7% 13,9% Gems, precious metals and goods thereof 2,6% Textile, garments and f ootw ear 0,2% Wood, paper and pulp goods 3,2% Hides, pelts and goods thereof 0,1% Mineral produc ts Chemic als and rubber 5,5% 66,2% Source: Federal Customs Service Fig. 38. Commodity Structure of Russian Export in 2006 (percentage) Thus, the main problem of Russian export is still its inefficient commodity structure. Fuel and raw materials orientation of the country, which is acceptable at a certain stage and under certain circumstances, does not evolve into more developed forms, connected with the increase in the extent of the processing of raw materials, which restricts considerably the possibilities of Russian presence expansion at the world market.
The main part of deep processed products export consists of the metal wares, ma chinery, equipment and the chemistry industry production.
Metal goods, supplied for export, include metal constructions made from fer rous metals and aluminum, aluminum foil, stranded wires, razors and blades, tanks, cisterns, pipes, sticks and other goods.
In recent years steady growth of the chemistry production export is sustained, however the decrease in world prices for oil and oil products in the second half of 2006 accounted for the decrease in the export growth rates of this kind of com modities. In 2006 export supplies of chemistry and petrochemistry industries pro duction comprised USD 11.6 bln., i.e. 103% against the level of 2005.
Enterprises of the industry export more than 1/3 of chemicals produced. The main items of Russian export are mineral fertilizers (32%), chemical rubber (9.5%), ammonia (6%), aromatic hydrocarbons (5.3%), car tires (5.3%), plastics (5.3%) and synthetic resins (5.1%).
Wood and paper goods export, including furniture, was equal to USD 9.3 bln.
in 2006, being 114.3% against the level of 2005. At the same time the physical volumes of the export growth rates slightly decreased in 2006. Thus, in 2006 round Section The Real Sector wood export growth was equal to 106.9% against 115.7% in 2005, carving wood export – to 107.8% (117%), veneer – to 102.9% (107%). At the same time the physical volumes of these goods export to CIS countries are characterized by anticipating growth rates (122.7, 132.9, 136.4% respectively).
In the structure of light industry export unbleached cotton fabrics comprise the main part. Higher demand for domestically produced cotton fabrics in non CIS countries is due to relatively low prices and 100% content of cotton, there being no dash of man made fabrics. In 2006 cotton fabrics of 337.1 mln. sq. m (96% against 2005) worth USD 120 mln. were exported. At the same time cotton fabrics of 157.mln. sq. m (85% against 2005) worth USD 62 mln. were exported to non CIS coun tries.
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