Agriculture, hunting and forestry 3.0 4.0 4.6 4.1 4.1 4.0 3.2 4.Industry 40.4 40.4 38.6 38.1 38.3 36.8 40.6 41.of which Minerals extraction 18.1 19.0 16.9 15.9 14.8 13.4 15.2 17.including fossil fuels extraction 16.7 17.5 15.5 14.4 13.4 11.8 13.5 15.Manufacturing industries 16.3 15.9 15.9 15.6 16.5 16.8 17.6 16.Electricity, gas and water production 6.0 5.5 5.8 6.6 7 6.6 7.8 7.and distribution Construction 6.4 5.2 5.4 4.9 3.6 3.5 2.9 3.Whole sale and retail trade; motor vehicles, motorcycles, household ap 2.7 2.9 3.6 3.5 3.6 3.9 2.8 2.pliances and articles of private use service Transportation 18.5 19.2 15.1 17.5 17.6 20.4 22.1 21.Communication 2.7 3 3.4 4.8 5.6 5.5 6.7 5.Financial activity 0.8 0.8 1 1.2 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.Operations with real estate, renting, 15.2 14.7 18.1 17.7 17.6 16.6 11.5 10.provision of services Education 1.3 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.8 2.State administration, military safety 1.5 1.5 2 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.8 1.security; compulsory social security Health care and provision of social ser 2.6 2.4 2 2 2.2 2.2 2.3 2.vices Provision of utilities, social and personal 3.9 3.5 3.8 2.6 2.5 2.4 2.6 2.services * excluding small enterprises and informal activity parameters.
Source: Federal State Statistics Service.
In 2006 the trend for the growth of investments in the fixed assets in transpor tation and trade, as well as in the kinds of activities, orientated to the provision of RUSSIAN ECONOMY IN trends and outlooks social services – education, health care sustained. Characteristic feature of the investment process in the transportation was the change in the structure of investments by kinds of economic activity. The dynamic growth of the pipeline transportation was maintained by the increase of its share in investment expenses up to 39.9% of the total amount of the investments into transportation (34.8% in 2005). In 2006 the reduction of the scale of the investments in railway transport and communication, for which the period of the restoration growth of 1999 2005 was characterized by the growth of the investment activity, was observed.
It should be noted that against the background of the steady growth of the demand for trade services redistribution of the investments by kinds of activities is proceeding in the environment of retail trade and motor vehicles trade material and technical basis expansion, the increase in investments into which was equal, respectively, to 149.7 and 128.0% against the level of 2005.
45,39,30,22,6 22,523,21,19,18,17,6,-2,-3,-2005 Source: Federal State Statistics Service.
Fig. 33. Change in the Investments in Fixed Assets Growth Rates by Kinds of Services Provided in 2005 and 2006, as percentage to the preceding year The share of the investments in the fixed assets by kinds of activities in goods production in 2006, exceeded the level of the previous year by 4.3 p.p., which was due mainly to the acceleration of the investments in industry and agriculture growth. The increase in agriculture investments in 2006 was equal to 40.6%, and its railway transport operation services education trade trade provision and social health care pipelines excluding retail trade, transportation motor-vehicles motor-vehicles communication Section The Real Sector share in investments in fixed assets structure increased up to 4.0%, increase in comparison with the preceding period being 0.8 p.p.
It was fuel and energy production that traditionally had the most significant impact on the dynamics and structure of the investments into the industry. The growth of the Russian economy in 1999 2001 was characterized by extremely high investment activity rates in fuel industry. Against the background of favorable do mestic and foreign market situation the investment activity was defined by the in crease in the volumes of investments in oil production by 2.3 times, in oil process ing and gas industry – by 2.1 times the investment growth being 1.58 on the whole in the industry and 1.36 in the economy. The proportions of the investment distribu tion between extraction and processing industries of oil complex changed towards the increase of oil production share. The increase in business activity was accom panied by drawing of reserve facilities into production and investments flows ra tionalization. As a result the coefficient of capital renewals in oil industry increased from 1.7% in 1999 to 2.9% in 2000 and 4.2% in 2001. In 2000 thanks to new con structions, 2.8 thou. oil wells were put into operation, in 2001 – 3.8 thou. More re served dynamics of investments in oil processing was accompanied with the evolu tion of the trend to stabilize the proportion of intensified oil processing.
In 2002 in the environment of the change of the situation at the world market of hydrocarbons and the decrease in the production profitability down to 20.7% against 66.7% in 2000 and 46.5% in 2001 the investments in oil production industry decreased by 15.6%. The restoration of the positive investment activity dynamics in 2003 relaxed the tension but did not change the situation. Over the period of 2005, despite the growth of world prices for hydrocarbons the average annual rate for investment decrease was observed at the level of 15.5%. One of the reasons for sustention of this trend was perhaps connected with tax reclamations for “YUKOS” activity and their assets sales.
Table The Investment Dynamics and Goods Profitability in Oil Production and Oil Processing Industry over 1999–Investment growth rates as percentage to the Production profitability, preceding year in comparable prices percentage Oil production Oil processing Oil production Oil processing 1999 125.8 74.7 57.9 32.2000 151.1 240.0 66.7 34.2001 123.6 115.5 46.5 24.2002 84.4 90.6 20.6 15.2003 104.6 98.1 20.7 19.2004 79.7 108.7 36.3 22.2005* 90.8 104.7 37.3 22.* Calculation based on the Federal State Statistics Service Расчет data on kinds of economic activity and investments in crude oil and gas production figures in 2005.
Source: Federal State Statistics Service.
The characteristic feature of 2004–2005 was unstable dynamics of investment activity in fuel industry, which is accounted for to a great extent by the factors of the market situation. The proportion of the fuel fossils production in 2005 was 11.8% of the total investment volume against 15.5% in 2002. The decrease of the impact of RUSSIAN ECONOMY IN trends and outlooks the fuel industry in the investment process was initiated by the decrease of oil pro duction industry in the total amount of the investments from 12.7% in 2001 to 7.0% in 2004 and 5.3% in 2005.
Table The Proportion of the Investments by Branches of Fuel Industry in the Total Amount of the Investments in Fixed Assets in the Economy in 1999–2005, as % to the total (in current prices) 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 Fuel industry – total 14.0 18.5 19.2 18.2 16.2 15.2 13.including:
Oil production and oil processing 9.6 13.4 14.4 12.1 11.0 8.3 7.Oil production 8.8 11.6 12.7 10.6 9.7 7.0 5.Oil processing 0.8 1.8 1.7 1.5 1.4 1.4 1.Source: Federal State Statistics Service.
As it is shown by the analysis of the investment activity indices in the context of oil companies, the total amount of the investments of 10 biggest oil companies de creased by 13.9% in 2004. The reserved investment behavior of oil companies was of short term nature. In 2005 2006 the positive dynamics for investment assimilation, efficiency of oil wells exploitation fund usage increased at the expense of diminishing the number of idle ones.
Table Investments Use by Oil Companies in 2002–2006 гг.
Growth rates in % to the preceding In current prices, RUR bln.
year in comparable prices* 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2003 2004 2005 Investments total 147.0 167.0 167.1 222.1 309.8 103.0 87.1 118.6 120.including Exploring and production drilling 49.7 61.8 65.8 85.4 123.4 112.6 92.7 115.8 125.total of which:
Exploring drilling 9.4 10.6 9.8 12.7 17.4 102.6 80.0 115.9 118.Production drilling 40.3 51.1 56.0 72.8 106.0 114.9 95.4 115.8 126.Equipment not included in con 35.1 32.4 36.5 51.1 60.0 83.9 97.8 125.1 101.struction estimates Industrial construction 57.8 69.4 62.0 83.1 124.5 108.9 77.8 119.5 129.Investments for non production 4.4 3.4 2.8 2.5 2.0 69.3 72.3 78.6 69.purposes * – according to the existing methodology previous year’s prices are adopted as comparable prices Source: Ministry for the Industry and Energy Data.
The characteristic feature of 2006 was the overcoming of the trend for the de crease of the share of the investments in minerals extraction, which was observed since 2002. As a result of 2006 the increase in the investments in the minerals ex traction was equal to 22.2% against the decrease by 0.3% in 2005, and in electric ity, gas and water production and distribution – 2.2% against the decrease by 0.4% in the preceding year. The overcoming of the decrease in the investment activity in this kind of economic activity was accounted for by the increase in investments in Section The Real Sector power industry by 8.3% in comparison with the previous year. The dynamics of gas production and redistribution was considerably influenced by the priority shifts in investment activity towards pipeline net development. Consequently, as a result of the decrease in investment amount in gaseous fuel production and distribution was equal to 38.1% against the growth of 17.4% in 2005.
Source: Federal State Statistics Service.
Fig. 34. The Change in the Investment in Fixed Assets Growth Rates by kinds of Economic Activities in 2005 and 2006, as percentage to the preceding year In 2006 the investments infixed assets growth rates deceleration down to 7.2% against 10.6% in 2005 was observed for manufacturing industries. The share of the manufacturing industries in the structure of the investments in the fixed as sets throughout the economy was equal to 16.4% in 2006 against 17.6% in the preceding year. The incomes concentration remaining high within export orientated productions and mechanisms of interindustry capital transfer being weakly developed it could have been hardly expected that the investments rates would accelerate and nature of the capital reproduction would change fundamen tally. The analysis of the investments dynamics and structure demonstrates that the trend to decrease in the share of the investments in the machine building produc tion is characteristic for the Russian economy. The share of the enterprises pro ducing capital goods was equal to 2.2% in 2006 against 2.7% in 2002. Under the existing age, technological and reproduction structure of the fixed assets low rates RUSSIAN ECONOMY IN trends and outlooks of investments in the machine building were the factors restricting the production development rates of final and intermediate goods output. The structure of capital goods production being what it is the import remains one of the main sources for capital renewals, production reconstruction and modernization.
Whereas the investment activity in food production as well as textile, clothing and tanning industries was determined by the increase in the domestic market demand, the metallurgical and chemistry industries were considerably influenced by the increase in demand of the external market. For instance, in 2006 the trend for anticipating growth of the investments in the metallurgical industry retrieved once again (112.8% against 2005) against the background of the decrease in the investment activity in the final metal goods production (89.7%), which lead as a re sult to the decrease in the final goods export.
The development of the chemistry and petrochemistry industries involves the solution of system problems of structural nature – guaranteeing the conformity of the production output, quality and range of chemistry and petrochemistry produc tion with the total demand of the domestic and external markets. The internal mar ket capacity for chemistry production being relatively high, the main factors re stricting the chemistry complex operation are the high rates of the equipment physical depreciation, technology backwardness and investment resources limita tion. Taking into account that petrochemistry productions are rigidly dependant in production and technological terms on oil and gas processing production, it seems sensible to compare the amount of the investments in industrial base renewal and the expansion of the raw materials base in the corresponding kinds of activities.
Otherwise the situation of non balance of production capacities of chemistry industry and its provision with the main kinds of raw materials can be reproduced.
Thereupon the formation of the large science and production integrated structures, which enable to fulfill the advantages of finished technological chains starting with the production and processing of hydrocarbons raw materials, on which 80% of chemistry and petrochemistry production is based, and up to output and sale of the main of its kinds to the utmost extent, is gaining special significance. Currently the processes of vertically integrated structures creation, which aim is to provide final commodities production at the Russian factories, are observed. Obviously, it will be changes in branch and specific structure of the chemistry complex towards the reduction of raw materials production proportion and the increase in the products of high extent of processing proportion that will have the positive influence on the level and dynamics of the investment expenses. For fuel and power enterprises the strengthening of the trend for the decrease in the investments in oil processing is one of the urgent problems. It should be noted that against the background of high world prices for hydrocarbons low transformation and diversification of export incomes towards the investments in the production reconstruction and modernization had a negative impact on the figures of the economy growth.
Section The Real Sector 3.3.2. Foreign Investments in the Russian Economy In 2006 USD 55.1 bln. of foreign investments flowed in the Russian economy, which exceeded by USD 2.5 bln. the figure of the previous year. The growth rates of the foreign investments in 2006 were equal to 102.7% the average annual rate over the period 2002 2005 being at the level of 139.2%.
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