Development rates of domestic machine building industry being reserved as compared with the investments expenditures dynamics and the fixed assets repro duction characteristics, the influence of the demand growth for import machinery and equipment at the domestic market has increased. The decrease in the import share in the machine building production consumption was of the short term na ture and was observed in the period from the IV quarter 1998 to III quarter 1999.
The dynamics of investments goods output in that period reflected the prompt re action of the Russian business to the economic shifts at the domestic market. It was the enterprises involved in the production of oil and chemistry industry equip ment that had the leading positions in the investment goods output. The develop ment of the infrastructure branches stimulated the increase in output volumes of construction and road making machines, as well as machine building production traditionally orientated at the domestic market: railway and metallurgic machine building.
The sharp increase in the demand for foreign produced equipment fell on 2000, and since then the trend for the anticipating import growth rates of the machinery and the equipment as compared with the development of the domestic machine building was of stable nature and corresponded with the dynamics of the investment activity. The factors that had the positive influence on the investment activity in long term and medium term prospects were the reduction of prices for foreign produced machinery and equipment due to the real appreciation of ruble as well as the utilization of the industrial assemblage technology, the import duties for foreign produced components being therefore decreased.
Within 2003–2006 average annual increase rates of the investment in the fixed assets being 11.9%, of the domestic machine building production at the level of 8.7%, this index for machine, equipment and transport vehicles import was equal to 37.9%. Investments into the purchase of the foreign produced equipment in the total amount of the investments in the machines, equipment and transport vehicles Section The Real Sector were, according to the data of the Ministry for the Economic Development, 21.5% in 2006 as compared with 20.6% in the previous year.
The influence of the economic revenues from the foreign trade on the economic growth rates being positive, their impact on the investment activity dynamics was limited by the trend for the decrease of the level of the gross national savings transformation into the investment expenditures. The share of the gross national saving in the GDP over 2003 2006 was on average 33.1%, of the investments into the fixed assets – 16.6%.
Economic revenues growing in 2005, the trend for the increase of the budget funds share in the investments in fixed assets financing sources retrieved. In RUR 540.1 bln. of the investments in the fixed assets were financed by budget funds, which was equal to 20.1% of the total amount of the investments in the fixed assets throughout the economy, including 6.7% by the federal budget funds. In 2006 RUR 700.1bln of the investments in the fixed assets were financed by budget funds, including by federal budget funds – RUR 242.1 bln.
Table Structure of Investments in the Fixed Assets as per Financial Sources, Percentage to the Total 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2005* 2006* Investments in fixed assets total 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 including a break down by sources of investment:
Own capital 47.7 49.4 48.0 46.2 46.8 47.7 45.1 44.of which:
bank credits 2.9 4.4 4.8 5.2 7.3 6.5 8.3 8. including foreign bank loans 0.6 0.9 0.5 0.8 1.3 1.0 1.0 1.loans from other organisations 7.2 4.9 6.0 8.6 7.3 7.3 7.4 5.Budget funds: 22.0 20.4 19.6 18.8 17.4 20.1 20.7 19.Federal Budget funds 6.0 5.8 6.0 6.5 5.1 6.7 7.1 6.Funds from the Subjects of the Russian 16.0 14.6 13.6 11.5 11.3 12.4 12.5 12.Federation budgets and local budgets Share of foreign investments in total 4.7 4.5 4.1 4.7 5.0 4.8 5.2 6.investments in fixed assets * small enterprises and informal activity parameters excluded.
Source: Federal State Statistics Service.
The characteristic feature of 2005 and 2006 was the change in Federal budget funds vs. budgets of the Subjects of the Russian Federation funds ratio, allocated for the investments. In 2005 the anticipating growth of investments in fixed assets at the expense of the Federal budget funds had a significant impact on the investment process. The share of the budget funds, which was used for the investments in fixed assets, was 2.63% of the GDP in 2006 against 2.5% of GDP in 2005 and 2.32% of GDP in 2004, including the Federal budget funds being, respectively, 0.91% against 0.83% and 0.68%.
RUSSIAN ECONOMY IN trends and outlooks 64,61,60,70,60,50,34,33,29,40,30,4,5,5,20,10,0,2004 2005 Federal Budget Budgets of the Subjects of the Russian Federation Budgets of the other levels of administration Source: Federal State Statistics Service.
Fig. 32. Structures of the Investments in the Fixed Assets Financing at the Expense of the Budget Funds in 2004 2006, as percentage to the total In 2006 the amount of the public investments grew by 0.3 p.p. of the GDP in comparison with 2005. According to the priorities of the state investment the funds were allocated to modernize and develop strategically important for the country objects of industrial infrastructure, fulfillment of investment projects on the modern technologies implementation for production of competitive production at the machine building enterprises, as well as to secure the safety of the energy, transport objects and forestry. In 2006 the share of the state investments in the development of the social sphere increased by 5 p.p. and in the development of special (defensive) complex – by 2.8%, while the share of investments in manufacturing complex changed but negligibly.
Public investments from the budget are carried out by the Investment Fund, Federal Targeted Investment Program (FTIP) and Federal Special Programs (FSP).
Investments for different social and economic as well as industrial programs, which are recognized as priorities, are financed by FSP. In 2006 the number of the federal special programs and subprograms financed by the Federal Budget reduced con siderably. This enabled to concentrate the resources on the priority directions of social and economic development of the country. It is chiefly the construction of particular objects both necessary for FSP fulfillment and not included in the pro grams that is financed by FTIP. In 2006 the volume of the Investment Fund was equal to RUR 96 bln., of FTIP – RUR 318.95 bln., of FST (in total) – RUR 363.6 bln.
The share of expenses for FTIP in the GDP in 2006 increased up to 1.38% against 1.17% the previous year, the share of the expenses for defense order (special complex) increasing up to 0.28%. In 2006 FTIP financing was equal to 85.6% of the year limit allocated. To a considerably greater extent, than on the whole throughout the constructions and the establishments for the state needs, the year limit for state investments into manufacturing complex has been financed.
Section The Real Sector According to the data of the Federal State Statistics Service, the limit of the public investments, allocated for 2006, was equal to RUR 150.4 bln, and at the expense of all the sources of financing for object, envisaged by FTIP, construction the investments of RUR 186.5 bln. were used by the end of 2006. On account of the 2006 year limit public investments of RUR 143.1 bln. were financed, including the construction for agriculture complex RUR 4.7 bln., transport complex RUR 67.bln., special complex 5.2 bln, social complex – 51.9 bln., in construction complex financing did not take place.
Table Limits of Public Investments, Allocated for Construction, Financed by Federal Budget in 2005–2006, RUR mln.
2005 Investments used by Public investments Investments used by all Public investments all sources of financ limit sources of financing limit ing* Total 158.4 210.6 150.4 186.Including by construction projects for:
Social complex 48.5 72.0 56.8 69.Manufacturing complex 93.2 116.3 71.6 83.Special complex 6.9 6.1 6.9 6.Other construction, not be 9.7 16.2 14.9 28.longing to complexes * Preliminary data.
Source: Federal State Statistics Service.
The main part of the public investments of FTIP, in the same way as in previ ous years, was allocated to fulfill the main national, infrastructure and innovation projects, as well as FSP of the development of key economic sectors and indus tries. Thus, more than one third of the FSP financing was directed towards infra structure projects in electricity power and transport industry, and provisions for these aims have increased in comparison with 2005 at that. The share of public ex penses for electricity power increased from 1.2% in 2005 up to 1.5% in 2006. The expenditures for transportation system development remained prevailing in the structure of FSP budget financing in 2006 and expanded up to 39.4% (against 35.9% in 2005). Budget funds were mainly invested in road building, civil aviation projects and sea transportation.
According to the Federal Targeted Investment Program in 2006 it was envisaged to allocate (by specified list of the Ministry for the Economic Development) public investments for 2802 construction projects but by 1 January 2007 there were 2118 construction projects fully financially provided. In 2006 it was planned to put into commission 1234 construction projects, among them construction projects were put into operation at the total capacity and 59 – partially. Besides, 120 construction projects, planned to be put into operation in following years, were put into commission (34 – at the total capacity, 86 partially).
RUSSIAN ECONOMY IN trends and outlooks Almost at every ninth construction project, envisaged by investment program, construction works did not take place in 2006. By 1 January 2007 construction projects or 36.2% are technically ready in the range from 51.0 to 99.9%.
The growth of economy revenues, the increase in business activity of the bank sector and population savings investment into housing had a positive impact on the nature of investment activity. Fundamentally new feature of the economic growth in the period of 2003 2006 was the shift from the investments in fixed assets financed at the expense of the business’ and organizations’ own capital to the expansion of debt capital share. This was a graphic evidence of qualitative changes in invest ment development mechanism, which is orientated on investment resources flow rationalization. As a result of 2006 the share of inflow funds was 55.7% of total amount of investments in fixed assets.
In contrast to 2005 the increase in banks’ share of investment financing from 8.3% to 8.9% was observed in investment crediting. The trend for the increase of insurance, investment, industrial and trade companies as well as foreign invest ment participation in investment activity financing sustained. In 2005 net inward investments were equal to USD 1.3 bln., in 2006 – USD 41.6 bln. Foreign banks credit share in investments in fixed assets financing has grown up to 1.5% against 1.0% in 2005, foreign investment ratio being 6.1% against 5.2%.
Table Net Capital Export of Private Sector, according to Balance of Payment, USD bln Including:
Net capital export of pri Net capital export by non financial vate sector, total Net capital export by banks organizations and households 1999 –20.8 –4.3 –16.2000 –24.8 –2.1 –22.2001 –15.0 –1.3 –16.2002 –8.1 2.5 –10.2003 –1.9 10.3 12.2004 –8.0 3.5 –11.2005 1.3 5.9 –4.I quarter 1.5 –2.7 4.II quarter –5.3 –2.5 –2.III quarter 9.1 6.4 2.IV quarter –4 4.6 –8.2006 41.6 25.1 16.I quarter –4.7 –3 –1.II quarter 19.8 9.9 9.III quarter 12.7 8.7 4.IV quarter 13.7 9.4 4.Source: Central Bank of the Russian Federation Low real value of the credit resources under the average level of profitability existing in the economy accounted for the expansion of enterprises debtors sector.
Among the factors that positively affect the credits dynamics and other borrowed funds the growth of the organized forms of the population savings can be Section The Real Sector distinguished. The share of funds, directed towards share holding in construction was equal to 3.4% from the total amount of the investments in the fixed assets.
The increase in the investment activity in branches of infrastructure and the increase in demand for these branches’ service is the indicator of growth potential, the investment policy in this sector being orientated towards the solution of long term problems. Over the period of 2002 2005 the share of transport, communication and trade increased by 7.1 p.p. and was equal to 29.8% of the total volume of the investments in the fixed assets. Over the years of reforms, the share of transport in the structure on the investment in the economy real sector nearly doubled, in 2005 its share being 20.4% against 15.1% in 2002. Whereas in the share of the investments in communications was equal to less than 0.6% of the total amount of the investments in the national economy, in 2002 it reached 3.4% and in 2005 – 5.5%.
Table Structure of Investments in the Fixed Assets by Types of Economic Activities 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2005* 2006* Total 100 100 100 100 100 100 10 0 Including break down by types of eco nomic activity:
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