Section The Real Sector % DOMESTIC FROM FAR ABROAD FROM NEAR ABROAD 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 Fig. 25. Dynamics of the share of competitive markets in machine building The intensity of all types of competition in machine building did not change in 2006. Both domestic competition and competition with imports remained at the level of 2005, which was the highest since 1995, when we began its follow up. Simi larly to all other branches, domestic competition remains the most intensive type of competition of the sales markers of Russian machine building. Its estimation is 4.18 points, or slightly above “moderate”. It is noteworthy that the estimations of domestic competition became higher than “moderate” only in 2005, having been growing from 1995 to 2004 is a quite gradual way from “weak” to “moderate”.
Competition with imports from far abroad in 2006 was 3.64 points, competitionя with commodities from near abroad – 3.22 points. Thus, the estimations of compe tition with imports in 2006 were within the interval between “moderate” and “weak”, and it is rather unlikely that the intensity of competition with imports will be able to increase in the next few years to the “moderate” level. Also, the level of competition with producers from far abroad in the machine building branch was found in to be the highest by comparison with other branches. However, this or a similar pic ture has been observed in recent years quite often: the machine building branch, by the intensity of its competition with imports, was either in the first place, or within the group of leaders. And especially so – after the 1998 default. Since 1999, the intensity of competition in that branch amounts, on the average, to 3.26 points (in the light industry – 3.12 points) In the food industry, the share of markets with domestic competition is stable and high, being substantially higher than the share of the markets with other types of competition (Fig. 26). Domestic competition is felt by the food producing enter RUSSIAN ECONOMY IN trends and outlooks prises to be present at 90 – 95 % of markets, and during the post default period it has demonstrated little changes. In 2006, this index 93 %, falling behind machine building and the light industry only by a few percent point. The competition with commodities from far abroad could be felt in 2006 only at 52 % of markets, having decreased after 2005 by 4 p. p. However, this last value looks negligible, after that index grew in 2005 by as much as 14 p. p. Thus, the past two years were estimated by the enterprises in the food industry as the most difficult, in terms of penetration of competitive imports onto their sales markets. In 2002, the situation was, from this point of view, the most comfortable one: the competition with imports was seen only on 32 % of markets, having decreased by half by comparison with its pre default historic high. Foodstuffs from near abroad are now competing with Russian products on 64 % of markets. The growth of this type of market competition dem onstrated, during last year, a growth of only 2 p. p. after a leap of 12 p. p. in 2005.
After the 1998 default, Russian foodstuff producers have more often to compete with producers from near abroad than with those from far abroad.
% DOMESTIC FROM NEAR ABROAD FROM FAR ABROAD 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 Fig. 26. Dynamics of the share of competitive markets in the food industry In the food industry – one of very few – the intensity of domestic competition in 2006 increased (Fig. 27). Growth, however, was slight (0.13 points), but resulting was the achievement of a historic high of the intensity of domestic competition – 4.39 points, because this type of competition of the sales markets of the enter prises in that branch of industry is gradually shifting from “moderate” toward “strong”. But is happenning, indeed, very gradually, because since 1999 the com petition indices in that branch had always been above 4 points (“moderate”), and only during the last two years there emerged a trend of their “breakthrough”. The intensity of competition with imports in that branch has also grown, especially the Section The Real Sector competition with foodstuffs from near abroad. But the level of competition with im ports there is among the lowest in Russian industry (being higher only than that in the construction materials industry). Now, the estimations of this competition are only higher than “weak”. As for the intensity of competition with products from far abroad, it is even below that level. In 2002, the situation on the sales markets in re spect to the competition with imports was very comfortable for Russian producers:
they were competing with imports at a minimum number of markets, while the in tensity of competition there was very close to “none”.
STRONG FROM RUSSIA MODERATE FROM FAR ABROAD WEAK FROM NEAR ABROAD NONE 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 Fig. 27. Dynamics of competition with different manufacturers in the food industry The highest number of competitive markets in 2006 was registered in the tim ber industrial complex (Fig. 28). The share of markets with domestic competition is traditionally high there (just as in other branches) – now at the level of 96 %, which is historic high. Growth during last year amounted to only 1 p. p., while growth by comparison with the pre default peak was only 8 p. p. Thus, domestic competitionя in that branch was sufficiently intensive and stable, while the high values and ab sence of any great changes in the few past years demonstrate that this index is near its maximum. As for the share of the markets with competition from far abroad and near abroad, it has visible changes during recent years. Firstly, these indices reached the levels of 81 % and 90 %, respectively, and as a result the branch in 2006 was in the first place by these parameters. No such prominent presence of competitive imports is being felt by the enterprises of any other branch. Even the enterprises in the light industry and machine building have never had so high com petition with imports on their sales markets.
RUSSIAN ECONOMY IN trends and outlooks DOMESTIC % FROM NEAR ABROAD FROM FAR ABROAD 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 Fig. 28. Dynamics of the share of competitive markets in the timber industrial complex (TIC) Secondly, since 1999 the penetration of competing imports from far abroad to this branch’s sales markets increased from 31% to 81 % (that is, by 50 p. p.), and the penetration of competing imports from near abroad during the same period grew from 31 % to 90 % (59 p. p.). So high expansion of competing imports has not been experienced by any other branch of Russian industry. Thirdly, if this trend of growing imports penetration onto the sale market persists, the enterprises of this branch will have to compete equally often with both Russian and foreign manufac turers. Such a situation has never before occurred in any other branch. Thus, the enterprises belonging to the timber industrial complex have experienced the great est changes in the scope of their competition with imports during the post default years, and therefore they are more in need of being protected from imports that all other branches of Russian industry.
However, foreign manufacturers, while actively penetrating the sales markets of the Russian enterprises of the timber industrial complex, have so far created no serious problems for their Russian counterparts. They estimate the level of their competition with imports as being equal to 3.5 points, that is, midway between “weak” and “moderate”. It is noteworthy that during the last two years the estima tions have grown nearly by one whole point; in 2004 they were between “weak” and “none”, while in 1999 “none”. In other words, the sales markets of the enterprises of the Russian timber industrial complex demonstrated the strongest changes in the level of competition with imports.
On the whole, the conditions for domestic competition in the branches of Russian industry in 2006 were very homogeneous (Fig. 29). The only exception was Section The Real Sector represented by nonferrous metallurgy. The share of competitive markets in other branches is above 92 %, which requires from the regulating agencies only that they should maintain the existing status quo and prevent market monopolization, as the goal of inducing competition among Russian industrial enterprises has already been achieved. The level of domestic competition has also become sufficiently high: in all the branches this index is above “moderate”.
LIGHT STRONG FOOD LEVEL OF COMPETITION CONSTRUCTION INDUSTRY MODERATE Я CHEMICAL NONFERROUS WEAK METALLURGY MACHINE-BUILDING NONE % OF COMPETITIVE MARKETS DIFFICULT TO ESTIMATE 0 20 40 60 80 Fig. 29. Branch indices of domestic competition in Less homogeneous is the competitive environment characterizing the compe tition with producers from far abroad (Fig. 30). The share of competitive markets in different branches is from 46 % to 83 %. The intensity of competition is estimated as being between от 2.76 and 3.64 points. The weakest pressure by imports is be ing experiences by enterprises in the construction materials industry, the strong est – in metallurgy, machine building and the timber industrial complex. The situa tion in the light industry seems to be far from so critical as it could be imagined if one listens to the persistent appeals for the protection of its enterprises. Moreover, the situation there is not so different from that in the food industry, which is tradi tionally considered to the most protected from imports. Thus, if we should speak of protecting domestic manufacturers, it must be pointed out that the attention of the State should be focused on those branches which are remarkable not by the activ ity of their lobbyists, but by the level of imports penetration and the intensity of the competition with it.
RUSSIAN ECONOMY IN trends and outlooks STRONG COMPETITION LEVEL MACHINE-BUILDING NONFERROUS MODERATE METALLURGY FERROUS LIGHT METALLURGY CHEMICAL WEAK FOOD CONSTRUCTION INDUSTRY tTIC NONE DIFFICULT TO ESTIMATE 0 20 40 60 80 % OF COMPETITIVE MARKETS Fig. 30. Branch indices of competition with commodities from far abroad in 3.3. Investments in the Real Sector of the Economy 3.3.1. Domestic Investments in Fixed Assets In Russian economy the trend for investments into fixed assets anticipating growth has been observed since 2000 (Fig. 31). Over the period of 2000 2006 the investments into the fixed assets have increased by 2.16 times, the growth of the GDP being at the same time 1.68 times. It should be noted that the investments dy namics suffered considerable fluctuations over the last seven years.
The high growth of the investment demand in 2000, supported by the dynam ics economy incomes growth gave place to the flat dynamics in 2002 due to foreign market factors. The restoration of the anticipating growth rates of investments into the fixed assets in comparison with the GDP dynamics has been observed since the beginning of 2003 and was accompanied by the price growth at the world market of the fuel fossils and raw materials and gradual increase of the domestic market share in the economy dynamics formation. In 2006 the volume of the investments in the fixed assets increased by 13.5%, in the previous year by 10.7%.
Section The Real Sector 17,13,12,10,10,5,2,1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 ---10,-11,--14,--18,-24,-Investments in the fixed assets GDP -40 -39,Source: Federal State Statistics Service.
Fig. 31. The GDP and Investments in the Fixed Assets Growth Rates in 1991–2006, as percentage to the preceding year The steady positive production output has changed the situation at the in vestment sector. The expansion of the investment demand proceeded along with the favorable changes in the price for hydrocarbon and mineral resources situation at the world markets, on the one hand, and activization of the Russian business at the domestic market, on the other hand. The growth of the economy and business incomes determined the demand extension for investment goods. The coefficient of the fixed assets renewal increased from 1.4% in 2000 up to 1.8% in 2003 and 2.1% on average over the period of 2004 2005. The increase in the coefficient of fixed assets renewal was observed in almost every kind of economic activity, this process being the most intensive in infrastructure branches. Thus, the rate of capi tal renewals in communication industry has increased from 2.1% in 2000 to 7.1% in 2004, in the trade, correspondingly, from 2.4% to 6.2%, in transportation – from 1.0% to 1.2%. The orientation of the producers towards production modernization and reconstruction caused the increase in the demand for the machinery and the equipment in almost every kind of economic activity. In the investment in the fixed assets structure by kinds of the fixed assets the increase in costs for machinery, equipment and transport vehicles has been observed. Whereas in 2001 the share of investments in the machinery, equipment and transport was equal to 35% of the RUSSIAN ECONOMY IN trends and outlooks whole amount of the investment, in 2005 their proportion exceeded 40% (Table 38).
As a result in the industry wear and tear of the machinery and the equipment de creased from 62.7% in 2001 to 57.3% in 2005, the share of manufacturing facili ties, which are under 5 years old, increased from 4.7% in 2000 to 9.5 % in 2005.
Table The Structure of the Fixed Assets by kinds of Fixed Assets in 2000–2006, in % to the total 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2005* 2006* Investments into the fixed assets total 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 Including the following kinds of fixed assets:
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