Table The Structure of Electric and Heat Energy Sales to the Main Groups of Consumers by RAO “UES of Russia” in Electric energy sales Heat energy sales kWt hour bln. percentage Gcal mln. percentage Total sales 606.4 100.0 411.1 100.Industry 294.7 48.6 104.5 25.Agriculture 14.0 2.3 3.5 0.And communication 66.5 11.0 4.9 1.Construction 6.3 1.0 3.9 1.Housing and communal facilities 75.6 12.5 195.9 47.Population 46.2 7.6 31.2 7.Other fields 102.9 17.0 67.2 16.Source: RAO “UES of Russia” Over 2000–2005 the total demand for electricity in the sector, which produces goods, increased by 10.4%, including in industry – by 16.1%. In Russia on the whole the share of the industry in electricity, consumed in the economy, was equal to 53.1% against 52.8% in 2000 and 58.7% in 1990.
In the structure of electricity consumption by the branches of industry the share of metallurgical enterprises is 36.6% and the share of fuel and energy com plex – 34.0%. Correspondingly the dynamics and efficiency of electricity use in these two complexes have a prevailing impact on the level of electric consumption of the industry as a whole. The changes in the structure of electricity consumption by branches of industry are accounted for, on the one hand, by the increase in the share of electric and power consuming productions and, on the other hand, low efficiency of resources utilization and technical and technological lag of the pro duction. The dynamics of the demand for electricity structure is considerably influ enced by the changes in market structure. Over 2002 2004 the contribution of oil and gas sector in the increase of the demand for electric power in the industry was equal to approximately 45%, of non ferrous metallurgy – 21%, of ferrous metal lurgy 17%, of chemistry and wood complex and foodstuffs production – of 5% each, construction materials industry – about 6%. In the environment of the exist ing level of production capacities utilization the demand for electric energy de creased by 3.9% over 2000 2004.
In 2005–2006 the sustention of the trend for the increase in the demand for electric energy in the industry was maintained by the anticipating growth rates of coke and oil products output, metallurgical production and finished metal goods production, some other productions, connected with minerals and raw materials processing. Taking into account that the share of export production of the produc RUSSIAN ECONOMY IN trends and outlooks tion output in 2006 in the oil production reached 57%, in rolled metals production – 39.7%, it can be assumed that it is the external market situation and the expansion of the demand for the traditional Russian export goods that had the crucial influ ence on the demand for the electricity dynamics.
In 2005 turbine electric power plants with the capacity of 2.2 mln. kWt were built, which exceeded the amount of 2004 implementations by more than two times. Obviously, this also influenced the sales market and stimulated consumers to connect to the centralized sources of the energy supply (Table 32).
Table Putting into Operation of Production Capacities throughout the Electric Power Industry due to New Construction, Expansion, Reconstruction and Technical Re Equipment 1995 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 Turbine electric power plants, thou. kWt 370.2 562.6 1947.3 912.7 1990.8 933.8 Transmission facilities of the voltage of 4902.1 2680.2 2206.1 2488.3 2820.1 2916.2 No data 35 kV and more, km Transmission facilities for agriculture electrification of the 6943.0 3122.9 3267.0 3290.7 3808.9 3596.1 No data voltage of 6 20 kV and more, km Transmission facilities for agriculture electrification of the 5812.0 2776.9 3207.2 3534.7 4268.2 4439.0 No data voltage of 0.4 kV and more, km Transformation step down substations of the voltage of 4320.8 3356.7 2832.9 2403.3 2095.9 3858.1 kV and more, thou. kVA Steam boilers at heat and power plants, tons per hour 850.·0 1494.8 935.0 1351.0 904.0 605.5 620.Heat backbone networks, km 80.6 61.9 61.8 88.7 106.2 79.6 No data Water heating boilers at heat and power plants, Gcal per 860.0 1372.7 210.0 581.5 440.8 629.8 No data hour Source: Federal State Statistics Service.
In 2005 RAO “UES of Russia” put into operation 20 energy units of thet otal capacity of 1903.9MWt, commissioned 15 units of the total capacity of 1279.4 MWt at heat power plants and 5 units at hydroelectric power plants of 624.5 MWt (Ta ble 33).
Table Commissioning of Production Facilities by РАО «ЕЭС России» 2003 2004 Turbin facilities, MWt 2 087.9 980.1 1 903.Steam boiler, separately put into operation, ton per 800.0 160.0 420.hour Water heating boiler, Gcal per hour 15.1 121.0 88.Source: РАО «ЕЭС России».
So, it was actually the expanded potential of electric energy in 2006 that de fined the ratio of development rates of the main kinds of the economic activities and the place of the electric energy industry in Russian economy. In 2006 for the first time over the years of the post reform development the anticipating growth rates of electric energy production were observed as compared with the dynamics of the industrial growth (Fig. 13).
Section The Real Sector 16,14,12,10,8,6,4,2,0,I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV -2,2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 -4,-6,GDP Industry Electricity production Fig.13. The Change in the GDP, Industrial Production and Electric Energy Production Growth Rates, as percentage to the corresponding quarter of the previous year However the overcoming of the electricity shortage, especially in the aspect of territory, requires both the increase in investment scales in generation, as well as system solution of the problem of electricity saving technologies implementation.
The extent of the equipment tear and wear being high and the technologies being what they are the increase in specific norms of fuel consumption for energy production and in the electric energy consumption for own needs are observed.
Long term tendency for the decrease in the amount of the investments led to the change in qualitative and quantitative characteristics of the fixed assets in the branch. As compared with the pre reform level the amount of the investments in the electric energy industry decreased by threefold, the volume of new and substi tuting equipment commissioning, for instance for generating capacities, by times, for the objects of electricity network – by nearly 5 times. The coefficient of the fixed assets renewals in the electric energy industry decreased from 4.0% in 1990 to 1.3% in 2004. The process of generative facilities physical ageing is accu mulating. By 2004 the capacity resource had been worked out at nearly 17% of the electric power plants in Russia. A significant amount of outdated equipment with the efficiency coefficient below 30% is still in operation. About јof the installed RUSSIAN ECONOMY IN trends and outlooks equipment of the electric power substations reached its wearlife limit. A significant part of the equipment in electric energy industry cannot be involved in the produc tion due to its physical and moral depreciation. A high level of fixed assets depre ciation in the electric power industry is one of the causes of low capacity load as well as a factor that restricts the opportunities for further production growth. Due to the absence of the opportunity for timely substitution of the fixed assets elements the periods for inefficient machinery and equipment utilization prolonged. In many cases fixed assets are liquidated only when it is nearly totally impossible to use them further due to their physical wear and tear. Because of the ageing of fixed as sets the probability of their destruction as a result of anthropogenic catastrophes and natural disasters increases. Fixed assets depreciation increased up to 57.8% in 2004 in comparison with 40.6% in 1990. The combination of the high level of de preciation and capacity load gives evidence of critical loads for the facilities as well as for growing losses during electricity production and transmittance through the networks of common use.
In the situation when the trend for the demand for electricity growth has dis tinctly outlined, low norms of fixed assets renewal and existing dynamics of the an nual capacities commissioning create the danger for the appearance of shortage and became straightforward limitations for the country’s economy growth rates.
The dynamics of the fixed assets reproduction in the branch of industry de pend on the state of the energy machine building and energy construction com plex. However insufficient volumes and irrational structure of machinery and equipment production does not allow solving the problem of normalization of the process of fixed assets reproduction. Outdated material and technical base of en ergy and electric technologies machine building as well as low investment activity became the factors that limit the restoration of the steady trend for economy de velopment and maintenance of high investment demand.
In the environment of the economy growth it became evident that investment management does not correlate with the dynamic processes of economy restruc turing. The level and dynamics of the investments in fixed assets are closely con nected with the solution of the practical problems of stimulating energy savings and management of the demand for the energy. In order to do this it is necessary to pursue purposeful energy saving policy, which is based on the integral system of economic, legal and administration measures.
The policy of energy saving includes the problems of price and tariff regula tion, the change of the methods of amortization calculation for energy saving equipment, reconsideration of the existing standards, rules and regulations to wards reinforcement of the requirements for energy saving; establishment of the standards for energy consumption and energy losses and obligatory certification of energy consuming appliances and equipment of mass use. In many countries the programs of demand for electricity management are widespread. Such programs assume direct participation of energy companies in the energy saving stimulation and energy consumption regimes regulation.
3.2. The situation in industry The section is based on the data of surveys among the directors of industrial enterprises, which have been conducted by the IET according to the European harmonized methodology on a monthly basis since September 1992 and encom pass the whole territory of the Russian Federation. The panel’s size is approxi mately 1100 enterprises, where work more than 15 % of those employed in indus try. The panel has a shift towards big enterprises by each of the specified subbranches of the national economy. The return of questionnaires is 65 – 70 %.
These research surveys among the directors of enterprises represent a quick method for collecting data concerning the state of affairs at their enterprises and the expected (or planned) changes in the main indices of their performance. It is a relatively new instrument when applied to economic analysis. The first such survey was conducted by the Ifo Institute for Economic Research (Munich, Germany) in 1949. Soon, this method began to be applied in the UK, France and Italy. From 1962, the EU has been working at harmonizing (making compatible) the results of surveys being conducted in different countries of that continent.
The questionnaire used in a research survey contains a limited number of questions (no more than 15 – 20). These questions are of a qualitative, not quanti tative, character. The simple structure of questions and answers makes it possible for the respondents to fill in the questionnaires in a short period of time and without consulting any other staff or documentation. It is of paramount importance that the respondent at each enterprise should be a CEO of the highest level, who has full vision of the enterprise’s state of affairs and directly participates in its manage ment. In 2006, 31 % of the filled in questionnaires were returned by the directors of enterprises, 34 % – by deputy directors, and 24 % – from heads of economic sub divisions.
In the analysis of the results of surveys, a specific derivative index is applied – the so called balance. Balances are computed as the difference between the per centage of those who have replied “is growing” ( or “is above the norm”) and the percentage of those who have replied “is decreasing” ( or “is below the norm”). The result makes it possible to represent the distribution of answers to each question by simple digits with signs “+” or “–“.
Balance is interpreted as the first derivative, or process speed. If the balance of answers to the question concerning the expected change in prices has the sign “+”, this means that the average prices in the nearest future period are going to grow (there is a prevalence of enterprises who have reported a forecasted growth of their prices). Growth of balance in a month from +10 % to + 17% demon strates that the average prices in industry are going to display a more intensive growth, because the prevalence of enterprises who forecast growth has also in creased). Negative balance implies that average prices will go down (a greater number of enterprises are going to lower their prices). A change in balance from – 5 % to –12 % is interpreted as growth in intensity of price decline.
RUSSIAN ECONOMY IN trends and outlooks 3.2.1. The dynamics of demand for industrial products in The dynamics of effective demand in 2006 were more than favorable for Rus sian industry. The demand for domestic products was going throughout the whole year, with good intensity, and in nearly all the branches.
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