Fig. 8. The World Price for Oil in Real Terms in 1970–2006*, USD per barrel RUSSIAN ECONOMY IN trends and outlooks During 2006 the highest prices for oil (USD 73.7 per barrel for oil grade Brent) were observed in July, when Israel started military operation in the Lebanon terri tory and fears of other countries of the region joining into the conflict arose and of decrease in oil supplies to the world market. In September October prices for oil decreased considerably (price for oil grade Brent in October being USD 57.8 per barrel). The main reasons of such a fall in world prices were the extension of oil production in the countries, which are not members of the OPEC and relative re laxation of the tension at the Middle East after the end of Israel’s military operation in the territory of Lebanon, as well as the abatement of expectations for coercion solution of Iranian problem by the USA administration. In December under the in fluence of the decrease in oil production by OPEC member countries, which was decided on from 1 November 2006, the price for the oil grade Brent increased up to USD 62.3 per barrel (Table 16).
Table Prices for Oil Grades Brent and Urals in 2006, as USD per barrel 2006 2006 2006 2006 2006 January February March April May June Price for oil grade 63.05 60.12 62.09 70.35 69.83 68.Brent, Great Britain Price for oil Urals, 59.57 57.06 58.11 64.95 65.09 64.Russia Table 16 (continuation) 2006 2006 2006 2006 2006 July August September October November December Price for oil grade 73.66 73.11 61.71 57.80 58.92 62.Brent, Great Britain Price for oil grade 69.20 68.49 59.47 55.68 55.95 57.Urals, Russia Source: OECD/IEA, OPEC.
The development of the gas and oil sector in the Russian economy in was characterized by the sustention of the tendency for oil, oil products and natural gas production, which evolved in 2000 2005. Oil production, gas condensate in cluded, reached 480 mln. tons in 2006. This figure is by 15.7% lower than pre crisis maximum, reached in 1987, when oil production was equal to 569.4 mln. tons and by 59% higher than the minimum level of 1996, when the production decreased down to 301.3 mln. tons. The reasons for a considerable growth of oil production in recent years are the expansion of export opportunities, for instance thanks to the creation of the Baltic pipeline system and railway transportation use, as well as the growth in domestic demand.
At the same time oil production growth rates in 2005–2006 decreased con siderably. Whereas in 2002–2004 the increase in oil production, gas condensate included, reached 8.9–11% per year, in 2006 the increase in production was only 2.1%. This is the indicator of fast increase reserves depletion in oil production in the country and the evidence of necessity of very active actions to develop new oil fields, in the Eastern part of the country, in particular.
The volume of primary oil processing in 2006 increase by 5.7%, and the extent of oil processing went up by 71.9% (in 2005 this index was equal to 71.6%).The Section The Real Sector growth of natural gas production, which started in 2005 continued and in 2006 was equal to 2.4% (Table 17).
Table Oil, Oil Products and Natural Gas Production during 2000 2006, as percentage to the preceding year 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 Oil, including gas conden 106.0 107.7 109.0 111.0 108.9 102.2 102.sate Primary oil processing 102.7 103.2 103.3 102.7 102.6 106.2 105.Motor petrol 103.6 100.6 104.9 101.2 103.8 104.8 107.Diesel oil 104.9 102.0 104.7 102.0 102.7 108.5 107.Furnace fuel oil 98.3 104.2 107.1 100.3 97.8 105.8 104.Natural gas, bln.cu. m 98.5 99.2 101.9 103.4 101.6 100.5 102.Source: Federal State Statistics Service In 2006 the biggest amount of oil was produced by oil companies LUKOIL, Rosneft, ТNК BP, Surgutneftegas and Gasprom. The share of these 5 companies is 75% of the total oil production in the country. The main part of the Rosneft pro duction (68.5%) was secured by Yuganskneftegas, which was apportioned from the YUKOS structure and joined to Rosneft at the end of 2004. At the YUKOS enter prises the decrease in the oil production continued. In 2005 oil production by YUKOS without Yuganskneftegas decreased by 24.5% as compared with the previ ous year, in January September 2006 – by 12.5%. As a result the share of the company at the Russian oil market dropped down to 4.5%. At the same time the share of Gasprom at the oil market has increased drama5tically thanks to the pur chase of the oil company Sibneft. The proportion of Gasprom, including Gasprom neft, which was formed to control Gasprom oil assets in 2006 was equal to 9.6% in the All Russian oil extraction. As a result the share of the state owned companies Rosneft and Gasprom, including Gaspromneft – at the Russian oil market in reached 26.6%. Production sharing operators produced 1.1% of the Russian oil in 2006. The share of other producers, to which around 150 small scale oil enter prises belong, comprised just 4.1% of oil production in the country (Table 18).
The increase in the state owned companies influence in the oil sector was quite characteristic trend for the recent years. The positions of the state owned companies strengthened considerably due to the purchase of private owned com panies assets (in 2004 of Yuganskneftegas, in 2005 – Sibneft). In December Gasprom purchased controlling stock in “Sakhalin 2” project, which is being ful filled by foreign investors8. In future it can be expected that the share of the state owned companies at the oil market thanks to the fulfillment of the project “Sakha lin 2” as well as possible purchase of oil production and processing assets of oil company YUKOS, which was declared bankrupt last year, by the state owned com panies. The share of the state owned companies in the all Russian oil production Operator of “Sakhalin 2” project is the Sakhalin Energy Investment Company, whose stocks hold ers are companies Royal Dutch/Shell (Netherlands/Great Britain), Mitsui and Mitsubishi (Japan).
Project is fulfilled on terms of production share agreement.
RUSSIAN ECONOMY IN trends and outlooks can reach the level of 31% only due to the purchase of the remaining YUKOS as sets.
Gasprom, whose share in all Russian production was equal to 83.9% in 2006, commands as usual in the gas production. At the same time gas production by oil companies has increased. The share of the oil companies in gas production re mains, however, quite low. The biggest gas volumes among oil companies are pro duced by LUKOIL, Rosneft and Surgutneftegas.
Table The Structure of Oil and Gas Production in 2006* The share in the The share in the Oil production, Gas production, total production, total production, mln. tons bln. cu. m % % Russia total 480.5 100.0 656.2 100.LUKOIL 90.4 18.8 14.1 2.Rosneft 81.7 17.0 13.6 2.TNK BP 72.4 15.1 8.7 1.Surgutneftegas 65.6 13.7 14.6 2.Gasprom+Gaspromneft 46.1 9.6 552.4 84. Of which:
Rosneft+Gasprom+ 127.8 26.6 566.0 86.Gaspromneft Of which:
Yuganskneftegas 56.0 11.7 1.5 0.* According to the organization structure by 31.12.Source: Ministry for Industry and Power, authors’ calculations.
In January –September 2006 a considerable growth in prices for oil and oil products at the domestic market was observed due to the increase in world prices.
The producers prices for oil, car petrol, diesel fuel and furnace fuel oil (mazut) reached the maximum over the whole post reform period in 2006. In September 2006 the average internal price for oil (producers’ price) in dollar terms reached USD 232.1 per ton, which is the maximum value for oil and car petrol prices over the whole post reform period (Table 19). In October December 2006 the prices at the domes tic market decreased substantially under the influence of world oil prices fall.
Internal prices for natural gas have also increased. The gas producers’ prices considerably exceeded pre devaluation level and reached USD 16.1 per 1 thou. cu.
m in September 2006. Average price for gas purchase in the industry, including both the gas production price and its transportation costs and trade and sales extra charge reached USD 58.8 per 1 thou. cu. m. in September 2006. At the end of the Section The Real Sector year the gas producers’ price was equal to USD 14.4 per 1 thou. cu. m, price for gas purchase in the industry being USD 60.1 per 1 thou. cu. m.
Table Internal Prices for Oil, Oil products, Natural Gas in US dollar terms over 2000–2006 (average producers’ prices, as USD per ton) 2000 2001 2002 2003 December December December December December Oil 54.9 49.9 60.7 70.1 123.Motor petrol 199.3 151.5 168.8 236.9 333.Diesel oil 185.0 158.5 153.8 214.3 364.Furnace fuel oil 79.7 47.1 66.1 66.0 69.Natural gas, as USD per 3.1 4.8 5.9 4.4 10.thou. cu. m Table 19 (continuation) 2005 2006 2006 December June September December Oil 167.2 207.3 232.1 168.Motor petrol 318.2 400.7 478.7 416.Diesel oil 417.0 455.9 471.2 426.Furnace fuel oil 142.7 191.9 194.9 148.Natural gas, as USD per 11.5 14.0 16.1 14.thou. cu. m Source: calculated on the basis of the Federal State Statistics Service data.
In January November 2006 as compared with the corresponding period of the previous year oil export in natural terms decreased by 1.2% while oil products export increased by 7.1% (Table 20). In January November 2006 the share of export in fur nace fuel oil (mazut) production was equal to 75.2%, diesel oil – to 57.1%, motor pet rol – to 18.7% (for comparison: in 1999 export share in motor car petrol production was equal to only 7.2%, in 2005 – to 18.5%). In 2006, as well as in 2005 the decrease in light oil products import was observed. In January November 2006 import of motor petrol decreased by 11.7% in comparison with the corresponding period of the pre vious year, and the share of import in petrol resources was equal only to 0.02% (for reference: in the first half year of 1998, i.e. before ruble devaluation the share of the import in petrol resources was equal to just 8.7%, in 2005 – 0.03%).
Table Oil, Oil Products and Natural Gas Export from Russia, as percentage to the previous year 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 (11 months*) Oil, total 113.9 117.8 115.0 98.0 98.including:
to non CIS countries 109.9 118.9 116.3 98.6 99.to CIS countries 137.3 112.4 108.3 94.9 95.Oil products, total 118.5 103.6 105.5 117.4 107.including:
to non CIS countries 119.1 102.6 104.9 118.7 105.to CIS countries 102.8 132.3 117.9 94.3 143.Gas, total 102.4 102.0 105.5 103.4 96. * As percentage to January November 2005.
Source: Federal State Statistics Service.
RUSSIAN ECONOMY IN trends and outlooks For the first time over the last years gas export supplies decreased, which was due to the reduction of its supplies to CIS countries, to which gas supplies reduced by 15.9% in January November 2006.
As it is demonstrated by the oil and oil products output and export analysis (Table 21), approximately 60% of the additionally produced oil was consumed at the domestic market, and 40% was exported in the form of oil products obtained from it. In 2006 net oil and oil products export, according to the preliminary estima tion, was equal to 351.1 mln. tons, i.e. increased by 4.2 mln. tons as compared with the previous year. As a result, the share of net oil and oil products export in oil pro duction was equal to 73.1%, net oil export being 51.5% of its production. The share of net export in gas production was equal to 29.3%.
Table The Ratio of Energy Supplies Production, Consumption and Export in 2000–2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 (estima tion) Oil, mln. tons Production 323.2 348.1 379.6 421.4 458.8 470.0 480.Export, total 144.5 159.7 187.5 223.5 257.4 252.5 249.Export to non CIS countries 127.6 137.1 154.8 186.4 217.3 214.4 212.Export to CIS countries 16.9 22.7 32.7 37.1 40.1 38.0 36.Net export 138.7 154.7 181.3 213.4 253.2 250.1 247.Domestic consumption 123.0 122.9 123.5 129.8 124.2 123.1 128.Net export, as percentage to the 42.9 44.4 47.8 50.6 55.2 53.2 51.production Oil products, mln. tons Export, total 61.9 70.8 75.0 78.4 82.1 97.0 103.Export to non CIS countries 58.4 68.3 72.5 74.9 78.0 93.1 98.Export to CIS countries 3.5 2.5 2.6 3.5 4.1 3.9 5.Net export 61.5 70.5 74.8 78.2 81.4 96.8 103.Oil and oil products, mln. tons Oil and oil products net export 200.2 225.2 256.1 291.6 334.6 346.9 351.Oil and oil products net export, as 61.9 64.7 67.5 69.2 72.9 73.8 73.percentage of oil production Natural gas, bln. cu. m Production 584.2 581.5 594.5 620.3 634.0 636.0 656.Export, total 193.8 180.9 185.5 189.3 200.4 207.3 199.Export to non CIS countries 133.8 131.9 134.2 142.0 145.3 159.8 159.Export to CIS countries 60.0 48.9 51.3 47.3 55.1 47.5 39.Net export 189.7 176.8 178.3 180.5 193.5 200.4 192.Domestic consumption 394.5 404.7 416.2 439.8 440.5 435.6 463.Net export, as percentage to the 32.5 30.4 30.0 29.1 30.5 31.5 29.production Source: Federal State Statistics Service, Ministry for the Industry and Power, Federal Customs Ser vice, authors’ calculations.
The share of oil products export having increased to some extent, the crude oil export, being 70% of the total export volume, still prevailed in the structure of oil export. It was the furnace fuel oil, which is used as a primary product in Europe for further processing, and diesel oil that comprised the main part of the oil products export. The main part of the energy supplies (85% of oil, 95% of oil products and 80% of gas) was exported beyond CIS.
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