However the production output throughout these industries being 20 23% of the pre reform 1991, this did not have much influence on the domestic demand. Textile Section The Real Sector and clothing industries belong to the group of processing industries characterized by critical values of the fixed assets depreciation. The retirement coefficient for the fixed assets exceeds by more than four times the index of assets renewal. The ab solute decrease of the amount of the fixed assets is proceeding in textile and cloth ing industry. Production crisis led to the sharp decrease in the demand for labor force. Over the last three years the average number of industrial and production staff in textile, clothing, leather and footwear production decreased by more than 22%. Low attractiveness of these kinds of activities was also determined by the ex isting labor remuneration level. The wages were equal approximately to 48–54% of the average level throughout the manufacturing industries. On one hand, the fact that material and technical basis and labor qualification do not meet the market cri teria determined the decrease in domestic non food goods competitiveness, on the other – under the existing exchange rates it led to the expansion of niches for import goods. Russian producers of light industry hold one of the least attractive for foreign investors position. At the beginning of 2006 the accumulated amount of the foreign investments into the industry was equal to USD 147 mln. as compared with USD 5781 mln. in food industry.
The condition that weakens the negative influence of textile, clothing goods and footwear on the formation of the market resources of non food goods pro duced domestically is the acceleration of household appliances, furnishing goods production. The dynamics of the furniture and construction materials output (107.8%) corresponds to the intensive growth of housing building and high busi ness activity at the real estate market. The nature of these productions operation and the growth of their competitiveness was considerably influenced by new tech nologies implementation and the increase in assembly production output based on the imported components.
The production of Intermediate Demand Goods The dynamics of the intermediate demand goods production has been in the area of the positive values since 2002. The nature of metallurgical, chemistry and woodworking industry operation was determined by the level of internal and exter nal demand.
Chemistry complex is the basic segment of Russian economy. Its proportion in the industry structure by the amount of goods produced comprises about 5.5%.
More than 4.5% of the fixed assets of the country are located in this industry. The enterprises secure about 5.4% of the All Russian currency earnings. Over 2005 the chemicals production output increased by 1.45 times. Since 2000 the slackening of the development dynamics and systematic decrease in the produc tion profitability is observed in the branch of industry. The situation is aggravated by non competitiveness of the domestic production at the external market, prefer ences’ shift at the domestic market towards import goods segment and not suffi cient purchasing capacity of the producers and the population. The conditions for chemicals import expansion are provided by low consumption quality, limited range of domestically produced chemicals, underdevelopment of domestic market infra structure, unpreparedness of the consuming economic sectors to process and util RUSSIAN ECONOMY IN trends and outlooks ize a number of materials, especially polymers. For instance, the average con sumption of plastics and many other kinds of chemicals in Russia per capita is by 4 times lower than in industrially developed countries. The non balance between the polymers production and processing leads to the fact that Russia is the im porter of finished plastic goods, including those produced abroad from Russian plastics. The share of import in the structure of domestic consumption increased considerably for plastic goods (up to 72%), chemical fibers and threads (up to 65%), synthetic dies and polystyrene (up to 58%), varnish and paint materials (up to 50%).
In 2006 the increase in chemicals production was equal to 1.9% against 2.6% in the previous year, the production of rubber and plastics goods increasing by 11.7% against 5.5%. Structural shifts in the chemicals production are accounted for by the recovery of the economic growth in varnish and paint (123% versus 2005), basic chemicals production (101.6%) in the environment of unsteady phar maceuticals production dynamics and the decrease in artificial and synthetic fibers production (Table 14).
Table Main Kinds of Chemistry, Plastics and Plastics Goods Production Output in 2000– 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 Chemistry Production Sulphuric acid, monohydrate, tons mln. 8.3 8.2 8.5 8.8 9.2 9.5 9.Soda ahs (100%), thou. tons 2201 2339 2385 2386 2576 2582 2.Hydrate of sodium (100%), thous. tons 1241 1197 1146 1113 1188 1245 Mineral fertilizers – total, thou. tons 12213 13026 13562 14053 15800 16625 including:
Polystyrene and styrene co polymers 92.2 106 108 135 165 228 PVC resin and PVC co polymers 480 487 528 547 563 580 polyethylene 923 951 1012 1038 1069 1049 polypropylene 233 260 269 286 294 349 Paint and brush materials, thou. tons 575 628 606 597 698 721 Chemical fibers and threads – total 164 158 159 187 188 158 Rubber and plastic goods production Tyres for motor vehicles, agriculture machines, motorcycles, 29.9 33.7 35.8 38.6 39.5 41.4 39.scooters, mln.
For trucks, buses, trolleybuses 10.1 11.4 10.9 11.7 11.7 11.7 10.For passenger cars 17.7 19.7 22.2 24.2 25.1 27.3 27.Pipes and pipelines details from thermoplastics, thou. tons 50.7 61.7 59.6 65.2 75.4 95.0 115.Source: Federal State Statistics Service Key factors, that limit the functioning of chemistry complex, the capacity of the domestic market for chemicals being quite high are:
- high extent of the equipment wear and tear, technological backwardness;
- the anticipating growth rates of prices and tariffs for natural monopolies production;
- the scantiness of investment resources;
Section The Real Sector - problems with industry’s enterprises provision with the main kinds of raw mate rials, especially hydrocarbons (virgin petrol, condensed gases, ethane, natural gas);
- the decrease in the effective demand for the small capacity chemistry produc tion, in the first row the military industry production.
One of the urgent problems in chemistry and petrochemistry industry devel opment is the effective import substitution and the decrease in the dependence of the domestic market from the influence of the foreign companies, decrease in the economically unjustified import of chemicals for whose production development there are sufficient conditions in the country. The solution of the problem will en able to fill domestic market with high quality and relatively inexpensive production, satisfy the increasing demand of the domestic market in the chemicals and new materials, expand the assortment of the goods produced as well as the final com modities export volume.
Priority direction of the investment policy is the increase in the investment at tractiveness of the chemistry complex at the expense of the decrease in the in vestment risks and effective protection of the rights and interests of the Russian and foreign investors. As petrochemistry enterprises are rigidly technologically de pendant on the oil and gas production and prosessing enterprises, it is necessary to correlate the amount of the investment in the production equipment renewals and the increase of raw materials base of the corresponding kinds of the activity.
Otherwise a non balance between production capacities of chemistry complex branches and capacities providing it with the main kinds of raw materials. Obvi ously, the changes in the branches and special structure of the chemistry complex will have positive impact towards direction of the decrease in primary production.
Thereupon the formation of the large science and production integrated structures, which enable to fulfill to the utmost extent the advantages of finished technological chains starting with the production and processing of hydrocarbons raw materials, on which 80% of chemistry and petrochemistry production is based, and up to output and sale of the main of its kinds, is gaining special significance.
Currently the processes of vertically integrated structures creation, which aim is to provide final commodities production at the Russian factories, are observed. The petrochemistry holding joint stock company “Sibur”, founded by RAO Gasprom is operating quite steadily. At the end of 1999 oil company LUKOIL purchased control stock of large chemistry enterprises. Large vertically integrated holdings are oil company Tatneft, to which open joint stock company “Efremov factory for syn thetic rubber”, open joint stock company “Nizhnekamsktechugol” and open joint stock company “Nizhnekamskmachine” belong, AMTEL, to which open joint stock company “Volgograd factory for technical carbon”, open joint stock company “Ki rov tire factory”, open joint stock company “Krasnoyarsk tire factory” belong. An other direction in the vertically integrated structure development is represented by the formation of Kemerov regional holding “Siberian chemistry company” with the aim to revive chemistry industry of Kuzbass.
RUSSIAN ECONOMY IN trends and outlooks Extraction Industries Oil and Gas Sector Oil and gas sector is the basis for the economy of Russia and plays a leading role in the formation of state budget incomes and active trade balance of the coun try. The price situation at the world markets had a determining influence on the po sition of oil and gas sector in the Russian economy in 2006. As nearly 75% of the oil produced in the country is exported in crude or processed form the level of oil world prices is actually the main factor that determines incomes and financial situa tion of the Russian oil industry.
World prices in 2006 were at an exceptionally high level. In July 2006 the prices for oil reached unprecedented maximum in nominal terms. The average price for oil grade Brent in July 2006 was equal to USD 73.7 per barrel, Urals – USD 69.2 per barrel. The main reasons for such a situation were high world economy growth rates, in particular of the USA and China economies, low level of idle facili ties for oil production, which did not enable to increase the production in a short time to satisfy the growing demand for oil. At the same time, OPEC actually refused to sustain world prices for oil in the limits of the principal price range of USD 22–per barrel and demonstrated substantial change in the price policy.
Despite exceptionally high level of prices for oil, OPEC conferences, which were held during 2006 confirmed the quotas for oil production for organization member countries which were established in the middle of 2005 at the rate of 28.mln. barrels a day again and again. And in October 2006 in the environment of some decrease in the world prices for oil (average price of OPEC basket in October 2006 being USD 55 per barrel), at the advisory meeting of the representatives of OPEC countries it was decided to reduce the volume of oil production by 1.2 mln.
barrels a day starting from 1 November 2006. Later at the conference of OPEC in December 2006 it was stipulated to decrease the volume of oil production by OPEC countries by 500 thou. barrels a day more starting with 1 February 2007.
Thus the virtual conduct of OPEC testifies for a considerable shift in price marks of that organization, for its aspiration to sustain oil prices at the level of far above than USD 50 per barrel. At the same time outside OPEC the decrease in oil production growth rates in Russia had a considerable impact on the oil prices dy namics. It can also be noted the presence of quite significant geopolitical risks in 2006 which contributed to the growth of oil world prices, for instance the problems, connected with Iran and Iraq, military operations of Israel in the Lebanon territory.
As a result, the price for oil grade Brent in 2006 was equal on average to USD 65.2 per barrel, the price of Russian oil Urals being USD 61.2 per barrel. The aver age price for OPEC oil in 2006 was equal to USD 61.1 per barrel. The average price of the Russian oil at the world (European) market was 20.6% higher in 2006 than the average level of the previous year (Table 15).
Section The Real Sector Table World Prices for Oil in 2000–2006, as USD per barrel 2000 2001 2002 2003 Price for oil grade Brent, 28.50 24.44 25.02 28.83 38.Great Britain Price for oil Urals, Russia 26.63 22.97 23.73 27.04 34.Price for oil basket of 27.60 23.12 24.34 28.13 36.OPEC member countries Table 15 (continuation) 2006 2006 2006 2005 1 quarter 2 quarter 3 quarter 4 quarter Price for oil grade Brent, 54.38 61.75 69.62 69.49 59.68 65.Great Britain Price for oil Urals, Russia 50.75 58.25 64.79 65.39 56.53 61.Price for oil basket of 50.64 57.65 64.72 65.68 56.11 61.OPEC member countries Source: OECD International Energy Agency, OPEC.
The level of world prices for oil, which was observed in 2006, is exceptionally high not only for the period of post reform development of the Russian economy but also from the point of view of historical retrospective. Over the period since 1900 higher level of world prices for oil in real terms was observed only in 1979– 1982. For instance, in 1980 the average annual world price for oil in real terms (in 2005 prices) was equal to USD 87.7 per barrel, being in nominal terms USD 36.per barrel (Fig. 8). For the sake of comparison it can be noted that in 1998 the av erage annual price for the oil grade Brent in real terms was only USD 15.7 per bar rel. (USD 12.7 per barrel in nominal terms), being on average in 1990 ies USD 24.per barrel.
* Prices of 2005, 1970–1983 – Arabian Light, 1984–2006 – Brent.
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