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RUSSIAN ECONOMY IN trends and outlooks 141,138,136,135,104,80,74,64,1992- 2000 2001-Source: Federal State Statistics Service.

Fig. 7. Production Indices Broken by Kinds of Economic Activity The main trends for the development of enterprises for minerals extraction was formed under the influence of such factors as the reduction of efficacious re serves facilities, low rates of exploration and putting into operation of new oil fields, limitations from transportation and exploration infrastructure. Underexploitation of extraction industries growth potential was also determined by reserved rates of minerals processing in metallurgy and petrochemistry. The existing structure of fixed assets being what it is the further increase of facilities load was accompanied by production capital intensity and the decrease in labor and financial resources efficiency use. This determined the significant impact of the output dynamics vol ume of the industries of the complex orientated to export on the structure of the in dustrial production and demand at the domestic market.

It should be noted that it was the slowdown in the fossil fuels extraction that had the biggest impact on the dynamics of the extraction industries in 20052006.

The production indices in fossil fuels extraction slowed down to 102.5% in 2006 as compared with 107.5% in 2003, and in metal ores extraction down to 101.8% against 108.5%. In the environment of tax load growth the slackening of motivation for extraction and export volumes increase was observed among oil companies.

The formation of this trend was also supported by the fact that, on the one hand, in the environment of the steady dynamics of the world prices for oil and intensive in crease in the domestic market prices the trade groups orientated towards export expand, and on the other hand in recent years the efficiency of oil products ex port has increased significantly, which determines the change in the marketing pol icy of the oil companies. In 2006 the oil production growing by 2.4% the sales at the Industry fuels Minerals extraction Minerals extraction industry Fossil fuels extraction, except fossil Manufacturing Section The Real Sector domestic market increased by 5.4%while the export decreased by 1.2%. The growth of oil products export over the same period was equal to 7.1%.

Table Indices of Industrial Production by Kinds of Economic Activities in 20002006, as percentage to the previous year 22000 22001 22002 22003 22004 22005 Industry 108.7 102.9 103.1 108.9 108.3 104 103.Minerals extraction 106.4 106 106.8 108.7 106.8 101.3 102.Fossil fuels extraction 104.9 106.1 107.3 110.3 107.7 101.8 102.Minerals extraction excluding fossil fuels 118.2 96.2 99.1 102.5 108.5 96.8 101.Manufacturing industries 110.9 102 101.1 110.3 110.5 105.7 104.Electricity, gas and water production and distribution 104 101.4 104.8 103.3 101.3 101.2 104.Source: Federal State Statistics Service Manufacturing Industries The steady economic growth due to the expansion of the external market de mand, on the one hand, and the increase in the capacity of the domestic market, on the other hand, gave additional stimulus for the development of the manufacturing industries. The dynamics of the manufacturing industries differentiates substan tially by the kinds of the economic activity, the ratio of the rates of investment and consumers goods having the biggest influence (Table 10). The growth fluctuations by the kinds of the economic activity being rather considerable, the anticipating growth of machine building production output was the prevailing tendency of the recovery period, which positively affected the level of business activity of con nected industries of construction materials and other intermediate goods produc tion. The ratio of growth rates by kinds of the economic activities in 2000 demonstrates the gradual turn from the growth which was orientated towards natu ral and raw materials potential towards the formation of the resource system for the investments development. In the environment of the production growth the de mand for domestic and imported equipment is growing dynamically.

Table The Change in the Rates of Production by Kinds of Manufacturing Industries Economic Activity in 20002006, as percentage to the previous year 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Manufacturing industries 10.9 2 1.1 10.3 10.5 5.7 4.Foodstuffs, including tobacco and beverages produc 5.3 8 7.2 6.9 4.4 4.4 5.tion Textile and clothing industry 24.9 7.8 2.5 1.2 4 1.5 7.Leather, leather goods and footwear production 7.6 13.7 11.4 11.5 0.6 2.7 16.Woodwork and wooden goods production 14.1 2.5 4.2 9.7 8.7 4.5 0.Pulp and paper production, editing and printing activ 18 9.6 4.1 7.8 5.1 1.2 6.ity Coke and oil products production 2.4 2.8 4.6 2.2 2.4 5.4 6.Chemistry industry 15.2 0.3 0.2 5.4 6.6 2.6 1.

RUSSIAN ECONOMY IN trends and outlooks 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Rubber and plastic goods production 26.1 1.6 0.2 5.5 13.5 5.5 11.Other non metal mineral goods production 10.6 3.8 1.2 7.3 8.4 3.5 10.Metallurgical production and finished metal goods 15.3 4.6 5.1 7.2 3.9 5.7 8.production Machinery and equipment production 5.7 6.4 8.8 19 21.1 0.1 3.Electric, electronic and optical equipment production 25 8.4 7.7 43.2 34.5 20.7 5.Transport vehicles and equipment production 10.7 26.4 1 14 11.5 6 3.Other productions 11.5 8.5 3.9 10.8 10.5 0.7 7.Source: Federal State Statistics Service The Main Trends of Machine Building Production Output The analysis of the dynamics of the investment goods market in recent years indicates that the level of business activity depends considerably on the economy revenues from the foreign economic activity. The reserved dynamics of the invest ment goods output as compared with the rates of the industrial growth over the last 8 years was observed only in 2002. However already in 2003 the situation experi enced fundamental changes. The investment sector replied to the industrial and incomes growth rates acceleration in the export orientated sector by the intensive increase in the production. The additional factor of machine building industry growth was the improvement in trade of the high technological equipment pro duced domestically at the external markets as well as the positive changes in in vestment environment connected with the gradual decrease of the duties for im ported components and equipment and the introduction of industrial assemblage regimes in motor vehicles production. At the same time it should be noted that the production output in some branches of machine building is subjected to quite con siderable fluctuations.

In 2006 for the first time over the last 4 years the negative dynamics was ob served in electric, electronic and optical equipment production after the output in crease by 34.5% in 2004 and by 20.7% in 2005.

The development of the Russian electronics over the last 5 years proceeded within the framework of section Basis for electronic components of the Federal Targeted Program National technological basis the fulfillment of which was envis aged for 2006. In spite of that, however, Russian electronics is in the state of crisis.

In the environment of the dynamic development of the world electronics the state of the domestic technological basis, development and series production of the electronic components basis (ECB) for testifies that the Russian electronic in dustry is in the state of the deep crisis. The structure of the modern domestic mar ket of electronic equipment is highly dependant on the electronic industrys enter prises possibilities and on the import of foreign produced basis for electronic components and finished goods. The capacity of the domestic market of radio and electronic equipment in 2005 was estimated to be USD 7.9 bln., the domestic pro duction of which being USD 3.5 bln. The positions of the domestic electronic pro ducers at the internal market weakened substantially the share of the import elec tronic components base was equal to 65% of the total amount of the electronic Section The Real Sector goods, sold in Russia. This is accounted for by a considerable technological lag re sulting in the low competitiveness of the Russian ECB.

The main system factors that limit the development of the domestic ECB are:

- moral and physical ageing of the technological equipment and fixed assets of electronic industry due to the lack of investment funds for technological re equipment over the last 15 years;

- sharp decrease in the production output and the reduction of the assortment of the electronic goods for military purposes produced serially;

- the growth in foreign produced electronic components application with the si multaneous decrease in the level of provision of domestically produced elec tronic components for the development and serial production of the armaments systems, military and special equipment;

- the situation of the nearly complete absence of the domestic civil sector of the most science intensive kinds of ECB, applied in computer engineering, com munication facilities and telecommunication, navigation equipment etc.

The analysis and development forecast demonstrates that further lag of Rus sia in production of the electronic components is highly dangerous, since it limits the opportunities for the transformation from the raw materials to innovation econ omy.

The overcoming of the crisis in the industry depends on the problem of com bining the efforts of the government and the private domestic and foreign business.

The partnership with the foreign business in this case is defining, as it is foreign firms and enterprises that are the leaders of this industry in the world. Only they have necessary technologies and the experience in this kind of the production or ganization as well as their effective commercial operation. The capital intensity of the electronic industry being high this model of management restructuring allows o decrease significantly the specific expenses for the production.

Domestic machinery and equipment production increased by 3.3% in 2006, the increase in the import of this kind of goods was, according to the preliminary data, equal to 50.9%. The dynamics of the machinery and equipment output was determined mainly by the extension of the demand for handling machinery, railway, power and agricultural machine building, instrument making, communication facili ties production. Besides, over the last years the steady growth of the demand for the consumers complex equipment sustained (Table 11).

The characteristic feature of the economic growth in 2000 2006 was the re covery of the positive growth dynamics of the agriculture and tractor machine building. The increase in machinery and equipment output being 1.53 times higher in 2006 as compared with 1999, the tractor and agriculture machine building out put increased by 1.63 times. The output of the tractors with the wheeled mover, motor cultivators and motor cultivators with changing tools, combine harvesters and milking machines grew dynamically. This, however, did not stop recession of the fixed assets in agriculture. The norm for the fixed assets renewals being at the level of 1.0% the retirement coefficient reached 3.1% in 2002 2005, wear and tear of machinery and equipment being 53.7%.

RUSSIAN ECONOMY IN trends and outlooks Table The Dynamics of the Machinery and Equipment Production by Kinds of the Economic Activities in 20002006, as percentage to the previous year 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 Machinery and equipment production: 105.7 106.4 91.2 119.0 121.1 99.9 103.including:

Mechanical equipment production 107.3 90.Machinery and equipment production for agriculture 148.4 129.1 77.6 76.4 130.5 102.0 107.and forestry * Machine tools construction** 111.5 99.4 81.7 100.5 95.1 99.1 114.Production of household appliances not included 109.5 107.1 115.9 106.6 119.0 103.7 106.elsewhere *** * Up to 2005 Tractor and agriculture machine building.

** Up to 2005 Machine tools and instruments industry.

*** Up to 2005 Machine building for light industry, food processing and households appliances.

Source: Federal State Statistics Service The state of the investment machine building is the main technological factor, which limits the production reconstruction and modernization on the new techno logical basis. Though in 2006 the investments in the machine building increased approximately by 43.6% against the level of 1998, this did not considerably affect the technological and economic characteristics of the industry fixed assets. The average norm of the fixed assets renewals being over the last 2 years at the level of 1.8%, the average age of the equipment in the industry if 21.2 years against 14.years in 1998, the proportion of used up machinery and equipment exceeding 27% (Table 12).

Table Age Structure of the Production Equipment in the Industry, percentage 1995 2000 2001 2002 2003 Equipment total (by the end of the 100 100 100 100 100 year) of which:

under 5 years old 10.1 4.7 5.7 6.7 7.8 8.610 years old 29.8 10.6 7.6 5.8 4.9 5.1115 years old 22.0 25.5 23.2 20.0 16.4 12.1620 years old 15.0 21.0 21.9 22.6 22.7 22.more than 20 years old 23.1 38.2 41.6 44.9 48.2 51.Average age of the equipment, years 14.3 18.7 19.4 20.1 20.7 21. * by big and middle sized commercial organizations.

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