Preliminary estimation of the number of the employed in the industry production is based on the data on the number of the filled vacant posts in January September 2006 on the assumption of the constant ratio of those employed in the industry to the number of the filled vacant posts.
Section The Real Sector In 2006 the increase in the added value of extraction enterprises was accom panied by the reduction of extensive components, so that the increase in output is defined exceptionally by the TFE growth. The increase in the efficiency almost en tirely determines the increase in the output in 2004 as well. The opposite situation is observed in 2005, when the increase in the output was provided for by the main factors input growth against the background of the decrease of their total effi ciency.
The contribution of the labor input to the output growth rates for this type of the economic activity remains negative over the whole period of 2004 2006, which is defined by the decrease in the number of those employed in the extraction in dustry. The capital input, in contrast, was increasing due to the growth of both the industrial facilities and the extent of their utilization.
Taking into the account the decrease in the number of those employed at the enterprises involved in the minerals extraction and the steady growth of the fixed assets physical volumes, secured by the high level of the investment into this kind of the economic activity, the main cause of the output growth rates reduction in 2004 2006 consisted in the decrease of TFE growth rates (it should be noted that the most significant decrease in added value growth rates in 2005 was accompa nied by the decrease in the efficiency). Against the background of the favorable price situation at the world raw materials markets this testifies the deterioration of extraction industries technological characteristics operation. This can be due to the fact that fields, characterized by lower efficiency become involved in the pro duction as well as by the decrease in the quality of the administration in the envi ronment of the considerable growth of the price situation..
Manufacturing industries added value growth rates in 2004–2006 decreased steadily: on average over the period GAV growth rates for this type of the economic activity decreased by 0.9 p.p. The structure of manufacturing industry output growth rates is similar to the structure of the extraction industries growth: in and 2006 against the background of the reduction in the main factors input the prevailing component of the output growth rates is TFE; in 2005 the increase in ef ficiency defines just 29% of the added value growth rates. Over the whole period of 2004 2006 the decrease in the number of the employed at the manufacturing en terprises determines the negative contribution of the labor input to the output growth rates for this kind of the economic activity; the steady growth in the physical volume of the fixed assets accounts for the increase of the corresponding compo nent contribution, which together with the increase in the intensity of industry ca pacities utilization accounts for the growth of the capital input contribution. Despite the increase in the TFE growth rates in 2006 on average over 2004 2006 the growth rate of the total factor efficiency of manufacturing industries factors has been decreasing (annual decrease is 1.4 p.p.) The only sector of the industrial production where the increase in the GAV growth rates is observed in 2006 (5.3%) as compared with 2004 (2.1%) is the pro In 2006 the estimation of the TFE growth rates in the industrial production can be slightly overrated, for the extent of the industrial facilities utilization was not taken into the account in the calculations.
RUSSIAN ECONOMY IN trends and outlooks duction and distribution of the gas, water and electricity. This increase however was provided by the increase of the main factors input in the environment of their total efficiency growth rates slowdown (annual decrease is equal to 1.81 p.p.).
Thus the increase in GDP observed in 2006 was to a great extent secured by the increase of the main production factors input (labor and capital accumulation) and the increase in the efficiency of its use. Тhe contribution of the efficiency to the GDP increase was equal to approximately 42% not taking into the account the oil prices and 18% after exclusion of the price situation impact at the world raw mate rials markets.
In the industrial sector the estimation of the TFE contribution in 206 is more significant, which can be connected with the absence of the data on the existing facilities utilization efficiency. According to the rough estimations, TFE is a prevail ing factor, which determines the growth in the industrial output. At the same time in 2004 2006 the industrial production demonstrates the trend to TFE growth rates slowdown.
A remarkable trend, quite visible upon the sectors analysis, is the decrease in the employment in extraction and manufacturing sectors while the total employ ment throughout the whole economy is increasing and the employed being redis tributed towards the service sector. This trend is characteristic for all the develop ing economies at the stage of the post industrial development. It also, however, corresponds to the trends of deindustrialisation (the decrease in the number of those employed in the manufacturing industries) in the environment of so called “Holland disease”. This trend is quite worrying, for if has negative influence on the long term economic growth and, as known from the world experience, on the quality of the institutional environment.
3.1.3. The Dynamics and the Structure of the Production by the Kinds of the Economic Activities Main trends and factors of the change of the produced GDP The development of the Russian economy in 2006 was formed under the in fluence of the following most significant factors: the increase in domestic demand impact; advance growth of manufacturing industries in comparison with extraction industries, advance growth of investments in fixed assets in comparison with GDP and final demand dynamics; acceleration of final commodities import with regard to domestic production; intensive growth of the service sector; anticipating growth of wages in comparison with labor productivity, sustention of high customer demand and population inclination for savings; the acceleration of prices growth rates of manufacturing goods producers and service tariffs.
Section The Real Sector Table The Structure of the GDP Produced as Broken by Kinds of Economic Activities in 2002 2006, as percentage in current prices Section Kind of economic activity 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006* Gross domestic product 100 100 100 100 A Agriculture, hunting and forestry 5.68 5.51 4.99 4.44 3.B Fishing, fish breeding 0.27 0.46 0.37 0.32 0.C Minerals extraction 6.01 5.93 8.37 9.58 8.D Processing industry 15.61 14.92 15.76 16.51 16.E Production and distribution of electricity, gas and water 3.32 3.23 3.32 2.91 2.F Construction 4.83 5.41 5.06 4.78 5.Wholesale and retail trade; vehicles, motorcycles, G 20.38 19.55 17.83 16.73 16.household appliances and articles of private use service H Hotels and restaurants 0.82 0.72 0.83 0.79 0.I Transport and communications 9.18 9.53 9.75 8.80 8.J Financial activity 2.75 3.00 3.00 3.44 3.K Real estate operations, rent and service provision 9.50 9.51 8.34 8.46 8.Government administration and military safety security;
L 4.51 4.92 4.71 4.44 4.essential social security M Education 2.59 2.41 2.35 2.29 2.N Public health service and social service provision 2.98 2.84 2.78 2.69 2.О Provision of other utilities, social and personal services 1.69 1.66 1.62 1.59 1. Net taxes for products 11.5 12.0 12.72 14.31 14.* Preliminary data.
Source: Federal State Statistics Service Economic development in 2002 2006 was characterized by simultaneous in crease in business activity of both goods and service production. There remained the big share of goods production and quite strong influence of the industry and the construction on the rates of economic growth. In 2006 the share of goods pro duction in the GDP was equal to 37.5%, 75.0% of it being accounted for by indus trial production and 13.6% by construction. On the service market it was the ac celeration of rates of transport, communication, trade, financial operations, real estate operations services that had the prevailing impact.
Comparative analysis of the Russian economy with regard to the kinds of ac tivities demonstrates, that the ratio of growth rates of the industry, construction and trade had the most significant impact on the nature and structure of development (Table 8, Fig.6). In 2003–2004 the acceleration of production and services output rates by the basic kinds of economic activity up to 7.2% against 3.5% on average over the period 2001 2002 was initiated by the recovery of the investment demand.
The dynamic increase of the construction work volumes was supported by the ac celeration of industrial production output due to the anticipating growth of invest ment goods and construction materials production.
From the second half year of 2004 to the middle of 2005 the decrease in in vestment activity, the slow down in industrial and construction works growth rates was observed in the economy against the background of the dynamic extension of the foreign economic activity scales. The leading positions in the formation of the RUSSIAN ECONOMY IN trends and outlooks structure and the dynamics of the economic growth since the second half of were held by the trade and connected with it branches of market infrastructure – transportation, communication, information service, financial and credit organiza tions. The development of the trade was accompanied by the intensive develop ment of the industry’s material and technical basis and the change in provided ser vice structure. The increase in the share organized trade form in the structure of the commodity turnover initiated intensive growth of sales and storage areas, ser vices.
Since the second half of 2005 with the increase of the investment activity in the national economy the trade gave leading positions to the construction. The share of retail and wholesale trade in the produced GDP was equal to 16.8% in 2006 against on average 18.3% over 2002 2005. It should be noted that the dy namic structural shifts were characteristic for the development of this kind of activ ity. The change in the demand at the world market determined anticipating growth and the increase of the foreign trade share in the structure of the trade turnover.
Intensive growth of the wholesale trade was sustained due to the extension of the internal demand market of material and technological resources. The volumes of wholesale trade exceeded the retail trade turnover by more than two times.
The extension of the trade in the country and at the international level deter mined to a great extent the growth of transportation operation. Commercial freight turnover increased by 2.2% over 2006, while the industrial output went up by 3.9%.
Production oriented towards export made the biggest contribution to the growth of the demand for transportation services. The increase in production transport by pipelines mains was equal to 2.1% as compared with 2005. By the rates of main kinds of freight transportation with railway oil and oil products, ferrous and non ferrous metals, ores, chemical and mineral fertilizers and timber industry enter prises’ production kept the leading positions.
The state of the transportation system of Russia is not a direct barrier of eco nomic growth, but its inefficiency leads to increased transport costs and the loss of profits from transit transportation.
Communication remains the most promising and dynamically developing among the kinds of economic activities. In 2006 the volume of communication ser vices increased by 23.7%. The share of the main communication operators com prised 3/5 of the total volume of the communication service volume and more than a half of population communication services. The telephone communication got the biggest spreading among the other kinds of electric communication. This kind of communication gives 4/5 of the incomes, obtained from the industry services, of which 40% is the share of mobile electric communication. At the end of December 2006 the total number of mobile phones subscribers was equal to 152 mln., it in creased by nearly 40% as compared with the corresponding period of the previous year.
Section The Real Sector Minerals extraction Manufacturing industries I II III IV I II III IV I II III Production and distribution of electricity, gas and water Construction 2004 2005 Whole sale and retail trade Transport and communication GDP Source: Federal State Statistics Service.
Fig. 6. The Change in the Production Dynamics by Kinds of Economic Activities in 2004–2006, as percentage to the corresponding period of the preceding year Industry: Production Rates and Structure The analysis of industry production in the classification of kinds of economic activity allows estimating the impact on the extraction and manufacturing industries on the nature of the Russian economy growth nature. The comparison of the dy namics of industry indices demonstrates that whereas the Russian industry crisis was initiated by the slump in manufacturing industries in the environment of the re served decrease of fuel fossils production, the economic growth was based on the increase in manufacturing industries production and the recovery of fossil fuels production at the pre crisis level in 2003 (Fig. 7). Since that moment the structure shifts in industry were determined by the anticipating growth of manufacturing in dustry in the Russian economy, the minerals extraction production dynamics being reserved. The changes in the industrial production structure were accompanied by transformation shifts within the main factors of production. At first, the general ten dency being towards the increase of the investment activity in the economy, the share of the investments in the minerals extraction in the total volume of the in vestments into the fixed assets throughout the economy decreased from 19.0% in 2001 to 13.4% in 2006, the proportion of manufacturing industry having increased from 15.9 to 16.8%. Secondly, both for manufacturing and extraction industries it was characteristic for 2001–2005 that the demand for labor force was decreasing against the background of the growth of requirements for labor qualification.
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