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RUSSIAN ECONOMY IN trends and outlooks Table The execution of the revenue and expenditure of the consolidated budget, the federal budget and territorial budgets (in % of GDP) 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 Federal budget Tax revenues 11.7 14.5 16.3 18.9 18.2 18.6 22.3 22.Including from SST 3.13 2.75 2.60 1.24 1.Revenue 12.7 15.5 17.8 20.3 19.5 20.1 23.7 23.Expenditure 14.0 14.2 14.8 18.9 17.8 15.8 16.3 16.Deficit () /Surplus (+) 1.1 1.4 3.0 1.4 1.7 4.3 7.4 7.Territorial budgets Tax revenue 11.1 11.8 11.0 11.5 10.8 11.4 10.3 10.Revenue 13.4 14.1 14.5 15.1 14.6 14.1 13.9 14.Expenditure 13.3 13.4 14.5 15.5 14.9 13.9 13.6 13.Deficit () /Surplus (+) 0.1 0.7 0.0 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.Consolidated budget Tax revenue 22.8 26.3 27.3 30.4 29.0 30.0 32.6 32.Revenue 25.2 28.5 29.3 32.1 31.1 32.3 35.2 35.Expenditure 26.3 25.6 26.4 31.1 29.7 27.8 27.5 27.Deficit () /Surplus (+) 1.1 2.8 2.9 1.0 1.4 4.5 7.7 8. General governments budget Tax revenue 31.4 35.7 35.7 35.6 34.6 35.3 36.9 36.Revenue 33.8 38.3 38.4 37.8 37.1 37.5 39.7 40.Expenditure 35.3 34.3 35.2 36.3 36.0 32.9 31.6 31.Deficit () /Surplus (+) 1.5 4.0 3.2 1.5 1.1 4.6 8.1 8.Source: the RF Ministry of Finance; the IETs estimations.

Against the background of a sufficiently favorable situation on the interna tional market for oil and metals (the average per annum price of Urals was $ 60.per barrel against $ 50.2 per barrel16 in 2005), the stabilization of budget revenue occurred due to the changed amounts of revenues from individual taxes, which will be discussed in more detail later.

The actual indices of oil prices being in excess of the target ones set in the 2006 budget resulted, just as in the previous year, in a surplus over the planned revenues of the budgetary system, and therefore on 1 December 2006 a law was passed, in accordance with which the revenue of the RF federal budget was in creased to 6,170.48 billion roubles (in the initial draft to 5,046.14 billion roubles), the expenditure to 4,431.08 billion roubles (in the initial draft to 4,270.11 billion roubles).

From 2001, SST replaced the previously existing contributions to the state off budget social funds.

From 2002, a part of the aggregate SST rate has been transferred to the federal budget.

The data published by the Energy Information Administration of the US Department of Energy www.eia.doe.gov. For a more detailed discussion if the situation on the oil market, see the corre sponding section of this report.

Section Monetary and budgetary spheres 2.2.2. An analysis of revenues from the main taxes in the RF budgetary system The data concerning the amounts of revenues from the main taxes received in the RF budgetary system in 2006 are shown in Table 9.

Table Revenues from the main taxes in the budget of the general government of the Russian Federation in 1998 2006 (in real terms, in % of GDP) 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Tax revenues in real terms (trillion roubles) Tax revenue* 0.84 0.88 1.10 1.15 1.20 1.26 1.38 1.53 1.Profits tax 0.10 0.13 0.17 0.19 0.14 0.14 0.20 0.26 0.Personal income tax 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.09 0.11 0.13 0.13 0.14 0.VAT 0.16 0.17 0.19 0.23 0.24 0.24 0.24 0.28 0.Excises 0.07 0.06 0.07 0.09 0.08 0.09 0.06 0.05 0.Revenues from foreign eco 0.04 0.05 0.10 0.12 0.10 0.12 0.20 0.32 0.nomic activity Payments for use of mineral 0.02 0.03 0.03 0.05 0.10 0.11 0.13 0.18 0.resources Sales tax 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.00 Allotments to off budget 0.21 0.20 0.22 0.23 0.13 0.14 0.14 0.17 0.funds, including SST to RF Social Insurance 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.Fund SST to Federal Compulsory 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.Medical Insurance Fund SST to territorial compulsory 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.medical insurance funds Insurance contributions to mandatory pension insurance 0.09 0.11 0.11 0.12 0.in RF Tax revenues in % of GDP Tax revenue* 31.9 31.4 35.7 35.7 35.6 34.6 35.3 36.9 36.Profits tax 3.7 4.6 5.4 5.7 4.3 4.0 5.1 6.2 6.Personal income tax 2.7 2.4 2.4 2.9 3.3 3.4 3.4 3.3 3.VAT 6.0 5.9 6.2 7.2 7.0 6.7 6.3 6.8 5.Excises 2.6 2.2 2.3 2.7 2.4 2.6 1.4 1.2 1.Revenues from foreign eco 1.4 1.8 3.1 3.7 3.0 3.4 5.0 7.8 8.nomic activity Payments for use of mineral 0.8 0.9 1.1 1.4 3.1 3.0 3.4 4.3 4.resources Sales tax 0.03 0.40 0.47 0.50 0.46 0.43 0.04 0.00 0. The value added tax on the commodities produced in the territory of the Russian Federation and imported into its territory.

The excises on excisable goods produced in the territory of the Russian Federation and imported into its territory, without the oil excises.

Customs duties, customs levies and other revenues from foreign economic activity.

Prior to 2002 the aggregate allotments to the off budget social funds. From 2002 taxes and contributions to social needs, without the deductions of SST being transferred to the federal budget.

RUSSIAN ECONOMY IN trends and outlooks 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Allotments to off budget funds, 7.9 7.1 7.3 7.2 3.8 3.9 3.7 4.2 4.including SST to RF Federal Social In 0.24 0.23 0.22 0.25 0.22 0.surance Fund SST Federal Compulsory 0.04 0.05 0.04 0.04 0.14 0.Medical Insurance Fund SST to territorial compulsory 0.59 0.71 0.66 0.62 0.38 0.medical insurance funds Insurance contribution to man 2.76 2.94 2.80 2.88 3.datory pension insurance in RF * the data prior to 2005 incorporate the revenues of target budget funds.

Source: the RF Ministry of Finance.

Fig. 9. Dynamic of revenues from main taxes in real terms in 1998 2006 (trillion roubles) As seen from the data presented here, the whole period from 1998 to 2006 is characterized by growing tax revenues in the budget of the general government of the Russian Federation Russian in real terms (see Fig. 9): the per annum growth rate of this index was fluctuating between 4.3 % (in 2003) and 25.1 % (by the re sults of 2000), which was mainly due to the substantial growth in the revenues from the profits tax, VAT and export customs duties. However, if we look at the period after the introduction of basic changes to tax legislation, the maximum growth of tax revenues in real terms was demonstrated by the results of 2005 11.1 %. Simi lar changes were observed in the indices of tax revenues as a percentage of GDP, which by 2005 had reached its historic high of the whole period under considera Section Monetary and budgetary spheres tion (36.9 % of GDP). In 2006 the share of tax revenues remained at a constant level 36.9 % of GDP.

Among the main factors responsible for the growing tax revenues within the budgetary system we can point to the favorable situation existing for Russian ex port commodities, primarily oil, natural gas and metals; the expansion of the tax bases for many taxes due to Russias economic growth; improved tax administra tion; and a partial reduction in the arrears of taxes. In the period prior to 2004 a number of taxes and levies were abolished, which had an additional impact on the behavior of tax revenues. In particular, this abolition involved the sales tax, the tax for the upkeep of the housing fund and the objects in the cultural sphere (prior to 2001 the tax was levied at the rate of 1.5 % of turnover), the tax on purchase of mo tor cars, the tax on the sale of fuels and lubricants; besides, the rates of the motor road tax and the tax on the owners of motor cars were lowered, and later these two taxes were completely abolished altogether.

The behaviors of revenues from individual taxes differed greatly. Thus, the highest volatility both in real terms and in % of GDP was displayed by the revenues from the tax on profit of organizations. From Table 9 it can be seen that before 2001 the revenues from this tax had been growing due to the increasing balances of enterprises financial results, improving payment and settlement procedures in the national economy, as well as the introduction, in 2001, of the municipal profits tax at the rate of profit by way of compensation for the abolished tax for the upkeep of the housing and utilities sector. However, the results of 2002 demonstrated a substantial fall in the revenues from the tax on profit of organizations, which consti tuted approximately 26 % in real terms and 1.4 p. p. in % of GDP. In 2003 the reve nues from this tax in real terms slightly grew, while as a percentage of GDP they became even lower, having decreased from 4.3 % to 4.0 % of GDP.

The principal factors responsible for the fall in the revenues from the profits tax in 2002 and 2003 were as follows: the enactment of the new provisions of the Tax Code concerning this tax, in particular changes (upward) in the structure and volume of costs to be deducted when determining the tax base; the lowered tax rate from 35 % to 24 %; the application of a transitory provision concerning the estimation of tax base on the accrual basis; altered depreciation deductions; and the general reduction in the net financial results of enterprises activity. As esti mated by the RF Ministry of Finance, in 2003 approximately 0.12 % of the aggre gate reduction in the revenue share in GDP resulted from the changes in the part concerning the determination of tax base for the profits tax. Only in 2004 the trend of declining tax revenues became reversed, and revenues increased by 48 % in real terms, or by 1.1 p.p. in % of GDP, and this growth continued in 2005 and 2006.

The main factors responsible for the increased revenues from the profits tax in 2004 were economic growth and the favorable economic situation in respect of in ternational prices of energy carriers, and in particular, the growing oil prices.

Against this background, a considerable expansion of the taxation base was ob served: while in 2003 the net balance of the financial activity of enterprises and or ganizations decreased by 12 %, in 2004 it rose by 50 %, and in 2005 by 35 %.

RUSSIAN ECONOMY IN trends and outlooks Besides, the growth of revenues in 2004 can be to a certain extent explained by the termination of a number of exemptions from the profits tax granted prior to the 2002 tax reform. The growth of revenues in 2005 is partly a consequence of the transfer to the budget, in Q I 2005, of the payment against the tax arrears of Yukos.

As seen by the results of 2006, the revenues from the profits tax somewhat in creased on the pervious year and amounted to 6.3 % of GDP. This increased reve nues can be explained by an expanded tax base (in the first ten months of 2006 the net balance of the financial activity of enterprises in the RF rose by 26 %). Besides, production growth in industry (3.9 % per annum) and in other types of economic activity, coupled with growing producer prices (in industry 10.5 %) could also be conducive to increased tax revenues.

The revenues from the personal income tax in real terms remained at a suffi ciently stable level until 2001. However, from 2002 the real revenues from this tax began to grow, and this growth continued throughout the following period. At the same time, growth in % of GDP could be observed only until 2004 inclusive, after which the share of revenues in GDP demonstrated a certain decline. Only in the revenues from this tax in % of GDP, as demonstrated by the years results, once again grew and amounted to 3.5 %, whereas the revenues from SST re mained at the same level as in 2005 (2 % of GDP). At the same time, according to the RF Rosstat, in 2006 the populations incomes in real terms increased by 10 %, while the growth of an average monthly salary in real terms was 13.5 %. During the same period, the growth of GDP in real terms amounted to 6.7 %. Thus, in 2006 the value of the effective rate of SST and the personal income tax in real terms turned out to be lower than in 2005.

The behavior of the revenues from the personal income tax should be viewed with due regard for the fact that in 2001, as a result of reform, a flat rate of 13 % was introduced for this tax. Thus, it can be noticed that as early as 2001 the annual results demonstrated a certain growth of tax revenues. One of the growth factors was that prior to reform the lower margin of the tax rate had been 12 %, and there fore its increase by 1 %, given the assumption that the tax base remained un changed or expanded, resulted in a noticeable growth in revenues (according to different estimations, by approximately 0.1 % of GDP), even though the marginal rate established for that part of the population that had been paying the tax at a higher rate had become lower (a fall in revenues by approximately 0.05 % of GDP).

Besides, according to estimates, approximately 0.2 % of the growth in revenues from the personal income tax in % of GDP was generated by the expanded tax base. The subsequent growth was largely due to the overall rise in the populations incomes produced by economic growth, as well as to the partial legalization of in comes.

Prior to and through the year 2003, the revenues from excises both in real terms and in % of GDP varied to a noticeable degree. However, overall revenues were growing, having reached in 2001 their historic high of the entire post crisis period. Later on, from the year 2004 onward, a rather significant decline followed.

Section Monetary and budgetary spheres The initial growth of revenues in 2001 2003 was produced by the introduction of the excises on diesel fuel and engine oils, the increased rates of the excises on al coholic beverages and on petrol (more than threefold)21, as well as of the excises on natural gas in response to its growing international prices. The reversal of the upward trend in the growth of excises, registered in 2004 and resulting in the onset of the aforesaid decline in their sum in real terms and in % of GDP, was largely due the abolition, from 1 January 2004, the excise on the natural gas, the revenues from which in 2003 amounted to approximately 45 % the total revenue from excises received by the budgetary system.

A substantial portion of the tax revenues in the budget of the general govern ment is represented by the revenues from the value added tax. While their amount in real terms until 2005 was mainly growing, in % of GDP it grew only until 2001, which was followed by a three year decline in revenues. A noticeable improvement was seen only by the results of 2005, and then in 2006 these revenues once again demonstrated a marked drop. The growth of 2000 2001 was largely due to the switchover to the payment of VAT by the country of destination in the trade rela tions with the CIS member states, as well as to the abolition of some exemptions.

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