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Institute for the Economy in Transition RUSSIAN ECONOMY IN 2006 TRENDS AND OUTLOOKS (ISSUE 28) Moscow March 2006 UDC 33(470+571)"2006" BBC 65.9(2) 962 Agency CIP RSL Institute for the Economy in Transition Director: Yegor Gaidar Editorial Board: Y. Gaidar (editor in chief) S. Sinelnikov Mourylev N. Glavatskaya R95 Russian economy in 2006 (issue 28): Trends and outlooks / Inst. for the Economy in Transition; [Y. Gaidar and others]. M. : IET, 2007. 687 p.: il. ISBN 978 5 93255 211 7.

The review provides a detailed analysis of main trends in Russia's econ omy in 2006. The paper contains five big sections that highlight single as pects of Russia's economic development: the socio political background;

the monetary and credit and financial spheres; the real sector; social sphere; institutional challenges. The paper employs a huge mass of statis tical data that forms the basis of original computation and numerous charts.

The publication of the present paper was sponsored with the grant from the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) UDC 33(470+571)"2006" BBC 65.9(2) 962 ISBN 978 5 93255 211 7 Institute for the Economy in Transition, 2007 Authors:

Introduction Y. Gaidar;

section 1.1 V. Mau;

section 2.1 P. Trunin;

section 2.2 D. Polevoy;

section 2.3 S. Drobyshevsky, P.Kadochnikov.

S. Sinelnikov Mourylev;

section 2.4 . Mamedov, V. Nazarov, I. Trunin;

section 2.5.1, 2.5.3 D. Polevoy;

section 2.5.2 A. Shadrin;

section 2.5.4 D. Kostikov, L. Mikhailov, L. Sycheva;

section 2.6 N. Mironova, I. Starodubrovskaya;

section 3.1 . stafieva, Yu. Bobylev, O. Izryadnova, . Lugovoi, R. Saakyan;

section 3.2 S. Tsukhlo;

section 3.3 O. Izryadnova, E. Ilyukhina;

section 3.4 N. Volovik, S. Prikhodko;

section 3.5 N. Karlova, E. Serova, T. Tikhonova, O. Shick;

section 4.1 I. Kolosnitsyn . Surinov;

section 4.2 . Kobzar;

section 4.3 L. Karachurina;

section 4.4.1 . Kliachko, I. Rozhdestvenskaya;

section 4.4.2 I. Rozhdestvenskaya;

section 4.5 I. Dezhina;

section 5.1 A. Radygin;

section 5.2 G. Malginov, A. Radygin;

section 5.3 . pevalova;

section 5.4. A. Abramov;

section 5.5 G. Malginov, G. Sternik;

section 5.6 V. Zatsepin, V. Tsymbal;

annex 1 I. Tolmacheva;

annex 2 N. Kornienko;

annex 3 I. Sokolov;

annex 4 T. Malinina.

Table of Contents Introduction....................................................................................................Section 1.The Socio Political Background.................................................... 1.1. State policy and state institutions in 2006....................................... 1.1.1. The main trends of economic and political development................................................................................. 1.1.2. Problems of economic growth............................................... 1.1.3. Financial stability and the Stabilization Fund........................... 1.1.4. State institutions and socio economic development................................................................................. 1.1.5. Political processes and the economy..................................... Section 2. Monetary and Budgetary Spheres................................................ 2.1. Monetary and Credit Policy........................................................... 2.1.1. Monetary Market................................................................. 2.1.2. Inflation Processes............................................................... 2.1.3. State of Balance of Payments............................................... 2.1.4. Basic Measures to be Implemented in the Sphere of Monetary and Credit Policy.................................... 2.2. The state budget.......................................................................... 2.2.1. A general overview of the budgetary system........................... 2.2.2. An analysis of revenues from the main taxes in the RF budgetary system............................................................ 2.2.3. The expenditures of the budgetary system............................. 2.2.4. The estimation of budget parameters cleared of the share of the oil and gas sector and the impact of international oil prices......................................... 2.2.5. The main developments in the budget sphere and the changes introduced in tax legislation................................... 2.2.6. The 2007 federal budget...................................................... 2.3. Forecast Models of the RF Economic Development and Restrictions in Economic Policy over a Medium Term Prospective................................................................

2.4. Interbugetary Relations and Subnational Finance.......................... 2.4.1. Evolution of Budgetary Federalism in Russia........................ 2.4.2. Main Trends of Development of Relationships between Budgets of Different Levels............................................ 2.4.3. The 2007 Federal Budget in the Part of Allocation of Interbudgetary Transfers to Other Levels of the Budgetary System....................................... 2.4.4. Concept and Methodology of Advancement of Interbudgetary Relations in the Russian Federation and its Subjects in 2006 and in the Medium Run............................. 2.4.5. New Methodology of Allocation of Subsidies on Equalization of Budget sufficiency of Subjects of the Federation......................................................................... 2.5. Russian Financial Markets...........................................................2.5.1. Internal Debt Market........................................................... 2.5.2. The market for Municipal and Subfederal Borrowings.................................................................................2.5.3. Stock Market..................................................................... 2.5.4. Investments of Pension Savings in the System of Mandatory Pension Insurance..................................................2.6. Municipal Reform: the First Year of Implementation.............................................................................2.6.1. Normative Legal Regulation of the Ongoing Transformations..........................................................................2.6.2. The Implementation of Reform in Certain Regions: General Trends and Local Features......................................................................2.6.3. The price of municipal reform is the cost of administration...................................................................Annex 1. An Overview of Legislation in the Field of Tax Regulation and Civil Legislation Adopted in 2006.............................................. Annex 2. Some Aspects of Approaches to the Problem of Combating Harmful Tax Competition in Terms of Capital Outflow.......................................................................................... Annex 3. The Problems and Prospects of Applying Performance Based Budgeting (PBB) in Russia............................................... Annex 4. Accounting Policy for Taxation Purposes:

Tax Accounting and Administration................................................................. Section 3. The Real Sector.......................................................................... 3.1. Macrostructure of Production......................................................3.1.1. Trends and Factors of Changes in Final Demand................... 3.1.2. The Specific Features of GDP Formation by Incomes................................................................................. 3.1.3. The Dynamics and the Structure of the Production by the Kinds of the Economic Activities..........................................3.2. The situation in industry...............................................................3.2.1. The dynamics of demand for industrial products in 2006..........................................................................3.2.2. Influence of demand on the status of industrial enterprises................................................................3.2.3. Dynamics of competition.....................................................3.3. Investments in the Real Sector of the Economy.............................3.3.1. Domestic Investments in Fixed Assets..................................3.3.2. Foreign Investments in the Russian Economy.......................3.4. Foreign Trade.............................................................................3.4.1 Foreign Trade Turnover....................................................... 3.4.2. Situation at the World Market.............................................. 3.4.3. Export............................................................................... 3.4.4. Import............................................................................... 3.4.5. Geographic Structure of Foreign Trade................................ 3.4.6. Foreign Trade Regulation................................................... 3.5. Russian agrifood sector: basic trends in 2006............................... 3.5.1. Agricultural performance.................................................... 3.5.2. Financial performance of farm producers............................ 3.5.3. Structural adjustment of Russian agriculture........................ 3.5.4. Production of agricultural inputs.......................................... 3.5.5. Food industry.................................................................... 3.5.6. Foreign trade in agricultural and food products....................

3.5.7. Agrifood policies................................................................ Section 4. Social Sphere............................................................................. 4.1. The Populations Finances and the Consumer Market................... 4.2. Labor Market.............................................................................. 4.3. Migration processes................................................................... 4.3.1. Regulating migration: the legislative framework in 2006....................................................................... 4.3.2. Economic consequences of the legislative process concerning migration...................................................... 4.3.3. Dynamics and structure of migration flows........................... 4.4. Social Cultural sphere................................................................ 4.4.1. Education.......................................................................... 4.4.2. Healthcare......................................................................... 4.5. The Situation in Science and Innovation Activity............................ 4.5.1. The Main Directions of State Policy in 2006.......................... 4.5.2. Financing Priorities and Development of an Approach Based on Target Programs................................... 4.5.3. The Personnel Policy of the State........................................ 4.5.4. Organizational Changes in the Government Sector of Science........................................................................ 4.5.5. The Formation of a Network of Innovation Oriented Higher Educational Establishments................................. 4.5.6. Promotion of Innovation Activity.......................................... Section 5. Institutional Problems................................................................ 5.1. Institutional development in 2000s............................................... 5.1.1. Politics versus economy: asymmetry of mutual influence...................................................................... 5.1.2. Political versus economic institutions:

public polls and their problems..................................................... 5.1.3. Protection of property rights versus finance............................................................................. 5.1.4. Legislative system versus protection of the property rights...................................................................5.1.5. State capitalism versus de nationalization............................5.1.6. Stability versus stagnation................................................... 5.2. Public Sector Transformation and Property Relations Policy.............................................................5.2.1. Public Sector Status: Quantitative Aspect.............................5.2.2. Outcomes of 2006 Privatization Policy and Mid Term Privatization Plans..................................................5.2.3. Major Government Corporations Activities...........................5.2.4. Changes in legal framework regulating government sector operations......................................................5.3. Issues associated with buying out and leasing land plots of business entities.............................................................5.4. Institutional Problems of Russian Capital Market................................................................................... 5.4.1. Russian Capital Market Dilemma......................................... 5.4.2. Evaluation of Russian Capital Market Using CalPERS Pension Fund Methodology...........................................5.4.3. Institutional and Structural Disparities and Growth Factors..................................................................... 5.5. The Housing Market....................................................................5.5.1. Overall situation on the housing market and price dynamics in 20052006................................................5.5.2. Housing as the priority national program.............................. 5.5.3. Implementation of the national project in the capital region......................................................................5.5.4. Stages of development of housing in Russia.........................5.5.5. Forecasts of development of the housing market..................5.6. The Defense Economy and the Military Security of Russia..............................................................................5.6.1. The Major Results of the Military Economic Activity in the Military Social Sphere.............................................5.6.2. The Major Results of the Military Economic Activity Aimed at the Technical Equipment of the Armed Forces.....................................................................5.6.3. Military Expenditures of the Federal Budget..........................5.6.4.

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