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The Institute for the Economy in Transition (www.iet.ru) 2004-2005 (%) 2004-2005 (%) 2004-2005 (%) million persons million persons million persons active population active population corresponding period in corresponding period in corresponding period in number of economically number of economically growth rates against the growth rates against the growth rates against the in terms of percentage of in terms of percentage of the indicator relating to the the indicator relating to the Bulletin of model analysis of short-term forecasts of socio-economic indicators in the Russian Federation, December The average monthly growth in the number of economically active population during the forecast period is expected to account for nearly 0.8% of the corresponding months of the previous year, according to the forecasts made on the basis of the ARIMA models ( see Table 13 ). At the same time, the number of the unemployed is expected to decrease (in terms of growth as compared to the corresponding period of the previous year): this indicator is forecasted to decrease by an average of 4.7%.

The Institute for the Economy in Transition (www.iet.ru) Appendix. Diagrams of time series of economic indicators in the Russian Federation: Actual and forecast values.

Fig. 1. Basic industrial production index for the industry as a whole ( January 1993 = 100% ) Jan-03 Jul-03 Feb-04 Aug-04 Mar-05 Sep-05 Apr-Fig. 2. Basic industrial production index for ferrous metallurgy ( January 1993 = 100% ) Jan-03 Jul-03 Feb-04 Aug-04 Mar-05 Sep-05 Apr-Fig. 3. Basic industrial production index for mechanical engineering and metal working industry ( January 1993 = 100% ) Jan-03 Jul-03 Feb-04 Aug-04 Mar-05 Sep-05 Apr-Bulletin of model analysis of short-term forecasts of socio-economic indicators in the Russian Federation, December Fig. 4. Basic industrial production index for chemical and petrochemical industry (January 1993 = 100%) Jan-03 Jul-03 Feb-04 Aug-04 Mar-05 Sep-05 Apr-Fig. 5. Basic industrial production index for building materials producing industry (January 1993 = 100%) Jan-03 Jul-03 Feb-04 Aug-04 Mar-05 Sep-05 Apr-Fig. 6. Basic industrial production index for fuel and energy industry (January 1993 = 100%) Jan-03 Jul-03 Feb-04 Aug-04 Mar-05 Sep-05 Apr- Институт экономики переходного периода (www.iet.ru) Bulletin of model analysis of short-term forecasts of socio-economic indicators in the Russian Federation, December Fig. 7. Basic industrial production index for non-ferrous metallurgy ( January 1993 = 100% ) Jan-03 Jul-03 Feb-04 Aug-04 Mar-05 Sep-05 Apr-Fig. 8. Basic industrial production index for timber, woodworking and paper-pulp industry (January 1993 = 100% ) Jan-03 Jul-03 Feb-04 Aug-04 Mar-05 Sep-05 Apr-Fig. 9. Basic industrial production index for food processing industry (January 1993=100%) Jan-03 Jul-03 Feb-04 Aug-04 Mar-05 Sep-05 Apr- Институт экономики переходного периода (www.iet.ru) Bulletin of model analysis of short-term forecasts of socio-economic indicators in the Russian Federation, December Fig. 10. Basic industrial production index for light industry (January 1993=100%) Jan-03 Jul-03 Feb-04 Aug-04 Mar-05 Sep-05 Apr-Fig. 11. Capital investments (RUR billion) Fig. 12. Retail trade turnover (RUR billion) Институт экономики переходного периода (www.iet.ru) June-March-FebruaryAugust-DecemberJanuary-October-SeptemberJune-March-FebruaryAugust-DecemberJanuary-October-SeptemberBulletin of model analysis of short-term forecasts of socio-economic indicators in the Russian Federation, December Fig. 13. Export to all countries (USD billion) 25.SM 23.ARIMA 21.19.17.15.13.11.9.Fig. 14. Export to countries other than CIS member countries (USD billion) 22.20.ARIMA 18.16.14.12.10.8.6.Fig. 15. Import from all countries (USD billion) 14.SM 13.ARIMA 12.11.10.9.8.7.6.5.4. Институт экономики переходного периода (www.iet.ru) Jul Jul Jul Jan Jan Jan Jan Mar Mar Mar Mar Nov Nov Nov Sep Sep Sep May May May l l l t t t r r r an an an an Ju Ju Ju Ap Ap Ap Oc Oc Oc J J J J l l l t t t r r r an an an an Ju Ju Ju Ap Ap Ap Oc Oc Oc J J J J Bulletin of model analysis of short-term forecasts of socio-economic indicators in the Russian Federation, December Fig. 16. Import from countries other than CIS member countries (USD billion) 11.ARIMA 10.9.8.7.6.5.4.3.Fig. 17. Basic consumer price index in percentage terms against December of the previous year 114.112.110.108.106.104.102.100.2004 2005 Fig. 17а. Basic consumer price index in percentage terms against December of the previous year (SM) 2005 2004 Decr Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Институт экономики переходного периода (www.iet.ru) Jul Jul Jul Jan Jan Jan Jan Mar Mar Mar Mar Nov Nov Nov Sep Sep Sep May May May jan oct feb apr july dec sep nov dec aug may june march Bulletin of model analysis of short-term forecasts of socio-economic indicators in the Russian Federation, December Fig.18. Basic price index for industrial product producers in percentage terms against December of the previous year 130.125.120.115.110.105.100.2004 2005 Fig. 19. Basic price index for mining operations in percentage terms against December of the previous year 170.160.150.140.130.120.110.100.90.2004 2005 Fig. 20. Basic price index for manufacturing industries in percentage terms against December of the previous year 125.120.115.110.105.100.2004 2005 Институт экономики переходного периода (www.iet.ru) jan oct feb apr july dec sep nov dec aug may june march jan apr oct feb dec july aug sep dec nov june may march jan oct feb apr july dec sep dec nov aug may june march Bulletin of model analysis of short-term forecasts of socio-economic indicators in the Russian Federation, December Fig. 21. Basic price index for production and distribution of electric power energy, gas and water in percentage terms against December of the previous year 116.114.112.110.108.106.104.102.100.2004 2005 Fig. 22. Basic price index for production of food products in percentage terms against December of the previous year 114.112.110.108.106.104.102.100.2004 2005 Fig. 23. Basic price index for textile and garment manufacture in percentage terms against December of the previous year 118.116.114.112.110.108.106.104.102.100.98.2004 2005 Институт экономики переходного периода (www.iet.ru) jan oct feb apr july dec sep nov dec aug may june march jan oct feb apr july dec sep dec nov aug may june march jan oct feb apr july dec sep nov dec aug may june march Bulletin of model analysis of short-term forecasts of socio-economic indicators in the Russian Federation, December Fig. 24. Basic price index for wood fashioning and woodworking in percentage terms against December of the previous year 111.109.107.105.103.101.99.2004 2005 Fig. 25. Basic price index for paper-pulp manufacturing in percentage terms against December of the previous year 112.110.108.106.104.102.100.2004 2005 Fig. 26. Basic price index for production of coke and oil products in percentage terms against December of the previous year 160.150.140.130.120.110.100.90.2004 2005 Институт экономики переходного периода (www.iet.ru) jan oct feb apr july dec sep dec nov aug may june march jan oct feb apr july dec sep dec nov aug may june march jan oct feb apr july dec sep nov dec aug may june march Bulletin of model analysis of short-term forecasts of socio-economic indicators in the Russian Federation, December Fig. 27. Basic price index for chemical production in percentage terms against December of the previous year 125.120.115.110.105.100.2004 2005 Fig.28. Basic price index for metallurgy and production of finished metal products in percentage terms against December of the previous year 140.135.130.125.120.115.110.105.100.2004 2005 Fig.29. Basic price index for production of machinery and equipment in percentage terms against December of the previous year 114.112.110.108.106.104.102.100.2004 2005 Институт экономики переходного периода (www.iet.ru) jan oct feb apr july dec sep nov dec aug may june march jan oct feb apr july dec sep nov dec aug may june march jan oct feb apr july dec sep dec nov aug may june march Bulletin of model analysis of short-term forecasts of socio-economic indicators in the Russian Federation, December Fig.30. Basic price index for production of transportation vehicles and equipment in percentage terms against December of the previous year 125.120.115.110.105.100.2004 2005 Fig. 31. Cost of the minimum set of food products per person per month (RUR) Fig. 32. Basic index for transportation rates (per each year in percentage terms against the previous year) 115. 113. 111. 109. 107. 105. 103. 101. 99. 97. 95. 2004 2005 Институт экономики переходного периода (www.iet.ru) jan oct feb apr july dec sep nov dec aug may june march June-March-FebruaryAugust-DecemberJanuary-October-Septemberr r r y r l y e h e r st e e ly ri b n ar be b ay a u rc b p u o m a Ju o m m A M Ju nu g e e e br M ct c Ja ov O Au Fe ept N De S Bulletin of model analysis of short-term forecasts of socio-economic indicators in the Russian Federation, December Fig. 33. Basic index for motor vehicle cargo transportation rates (per each year in percentage terms against the previous year) 103.103.102.102.101.101.100.100.2004 2005 Fig. 34. Basic index for pipeline transportation rates (per each year in percentage terms against the previous year) 126.121.116.111.106.101.96.91.86.2004 2005 Fig. 35. Brent oil prices (US dollars per barrel) 70.65.60.55.50.45.40.35.30.25.20. Институт экономики переходного периода (www.iet.ru) June-March-FebruaryAugust-DecemberJanuary-October-Septembert l r r y r y y e h s ry e er ri e e a n a u ar ul b b rc b b o u u J a M Ap o r m m Ju m g b e e M ct an t ve c J p Au O o Fe N De Se r r r y r il y y h e ry e st e e l r e n ar u a b rc b b u Ju Ma Ap mb r m m Ju to nu go e e Ma a u v eb ce J pt A Oc F No De Se Bulletin of model analysis of short-term forecasts of socio-economic indicators in the Russian Federation, December Fig. 36. Aluminum prices (US dollars per ton) 2100.2000.1900.1800.1700.1600.1500.1400.1300.Fig. 37. Gold prices (US dollars per ounce) 520.500.480.460.440.420.400.380.360.340.320.Fig. 38. Nickel prices (US dollars per ton) 17000.16000.15000.14000.13000.12000.11000.10000.9000.8000.7000. Институт экономики переходного периода (www.iet.ru) June-March-FebruaryAugust-DecemberJanuary-October-SeptemberJune-March-FebruaryAugust-DecemberJanuary-October-SeptemberJune-March-FebruaryAugust-DecemberJanuary-October-SeptemberBulletin of model analysis of short-term forecasts of socio-economic indicators in the Russian Federation, December Fig. 39. Copper prices (US dollars per ton) 4500.4000.3500.3000.2500.2000.1500.Fig. 40. Monetary base, RUR billion 2500.2300.2100.1900.1700.1500.1300.Fig. 41. M2, RUR billion 6500.6000.5500.5000.4500.4000.3500.3000. Институт экономики переходного периода (www.iet.ru) June-March-FebruaryAugust-DecemberJanuary-October-September-l l rr rvv yy n n p u an ep J Ju J Ja Ja Ma No Ma No Ma S Se Ma Ma -l l rr rvv yy n n p u an ep J Ju J Ja Ja Ma No Ma No Ma S Se Ma Ma Bulletin of model analysis of short-term forecasts of socio-economic indicators in the Russian Federation, December Fig. 42. The RF gold and foreign exchange reserves, USD million Fig. 43. RUR/USD exchange rate 29.29.28.28.27.27.Fig. 44. USD/EUR exchange rate 1.1.1.1.1.1.1.1.1.1.1. Институт экономики переходного периода (www.iet.ru) ---l rr v n y n y n pp ul a ar ov a e Ju J Ja Ja Ja M N M No Ma S Se M Ma ---l r r r v-n y yn-pp ulo ov an a e Ju J Ja J J Ma N Ma N Ma Se S Ma Ma -l rr r v v n yy n-n ppul o a e e Ju J Ja J Ja Ma No Ma N Ma S S Ma Ma Bulletin of model analysis of short-term forecasts of socio-economic indicators in the Russian Federation, December Fig. 45. Real disposable cash income ( in percentage terms of the level in January 1999 ) 310.290.270.250.230.210.190.170.150.Fig. 46. Real monetary income ( in percentage terms of the level in January 1999 ) 330.310.290.270.250.230.210.190.170.150.Fig. 47. Real wages ( in percentage terms of the level in January 1999 ) 350.330.310.290.270.250.230.210.190. Институт экономики переходного периода (www.iet.ru) June-March-FebruaryAugust-DecemberJanuary-October-SeptemberJune-March-August-January-October-February-December-September-June-March-FebruaryAugust-DecemberJanuary-October-SeptemberBulletin of model analysis of short-term forecasts of socio-economic indicators in the Russian Federation, December Fig. 48. Total economically active population (million persons) 75.73.71.69.67.65.63.Fig. 49. Total unemployment (million persons) 8.7.7.6.6.5.5.4.4. Институт экономики переходного периода (www.iet.ru) Jul-Jan-Apr-Mar-Feb-Aug-Sep-Jul-Jan-Apr-Mar-Feb-Aug-Sep-

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