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The same parameter for ferrous and non-ferrous metallurgy is expected to reach 5.5% and 1.4% respectively. Growth is forecasted in food processing industry and chemical and petrochemical industries: 6.9% and 4.7%, respectively, as well as building materials producing industry and fuel and energy industry: the average growth rates in these industries are expected to account for 11.9% and 2.0% respectively of the corresponding period in the previous year. The average growth in timber, wood-pulp and woodworking industry in predicted to account for 1.1% of the corresponding months of the previous year. Mechanical engineering and metal working industries are expected to grow by 11.5%.

An average downfall is forecasted ( 3.7% ) in light industry production as compared to the corresponding period of the previous year.

A growth in the industrial production ( within a range of 1.3% in ferrous metallurgy and 12% in mechanical engineering and metal working industries ) is forecasted for all industries on an annualized basis in 2005, except for only timber, wood-pulp and woodworking and light industries with an annual downfall being expected at the level of 1.4% and 5.2% respectively.

Retail trade turnover This section (see Table 2) presents forecasts of monthly trade retail trade turnover volumes as based on the FSSSs monthly data in the period between January 1999 and October 2005.

Table Predictive values of retail trade turnover volume Predictive values according to ARIMA model (billion RUR) January 2006 565.February 2006 566.March 2006 617.For reference: actual values over corresponding months in (billion RUR) January 2005 478.February 2005 481.March 2005 528.Predictive growth rates against the corresponding month in (in percentage terms ) January 2006 18.February 2005 17.March 2006 16.Note: retail trade turnover series is stationary within the time frame between January 1999 and October 2005.

It is evident from Table 2 that the retail trade turnover is estimated to account for 17.5% of the corresponding period in 2005. This is evident of a positive behavior in the forecast retail trade turnover in the period under review. The real monthly growth in the retail trade turnover volume is expected to average about 14.7% in the 1Q06 as compared to the corresponding period of the previous year.

The Institute for the Economy in Transition (www.iet.ru) Bulletin of model analysis of short-term forecasts of socio-economic indicators in the Russian Federation, December Capital investments Listed in Table 3 are predictive values of capital investments for the 1Q06. The forecast was made on the basis of time series according to the FSSSs data relating to the period between January 1998 and October 2005.

Table Predictive values of capital investment volumes Predictive values on ARIMA model (billion RUR) January 2006 158.February 2006 195.March 2006 224.For reference: actual values over corresponding months in (billion RUR) January 2005 521.February 2005 609.March 2005 478.Forecasting nominal growth rates against the corresponding month of the previous year (%) January 2006 10.February 2006 11.March 2006 12.Note: investment series within the time frame between January 1998 and October 2005 belong to the DS time series.

The estimates listed in Table 3 show that the average growth rate in capital investments is expected to account for 11.5% of the corresponding period between January and March of 2006.

Foreign trade indicators Model analysis of predictive values of export volumes, export to countries other than CIS member countries, import and import from countries other than CIS member countries was made by using time series models and structural models as assessed on the basis of monthly data within the time frame between September 1998 and October 2005 according to the RF Central Banks data 10. The final estimates of the forecast are listed in Table 4.

The data on foreign trade turnover were calculated by the RF Central Bank in accordance with the methodology of making up the foreign balance in exporting countrys prices (FOB) in billion US dollars.

The Institute for the Economy in Transition (www.iet.ru) Bulletin of model analysis of short-term forecasts of socio-economic indicators in the Russian Federation, December Table Predictive values of foreign trade volumes Export total Export to Import total Import from countries countries other than other than CIS member CIS member countries countries Month ARIMA SM ARIMA SM ARIMA ARIMA SM ARIMA SM ARIMA January 2006 21.5 21.3 141 140 18.5 138 8.7 9.3 131 140 7.9 February 2006 21.8 22.2 128 130 18.8 127 9.7 10.7 119 132 9.3 March 2006 22.2 23.1 109 114 19.1 108 10.7 12.2 110 125 10.1 For reference: actual values over corresponding months in 2005 (billion US dollars) January 2005 15.2 13.4 6.7 5.February 2005 17.0 14.8 8.1 6.March 2005 20.3 17.6 9.7 7.Note: export and import series to countries other than CIS member countries are identified as stationary series with first-order differences, while export and import series to countries other than CIS member countries are identified as trend stationary time series within the time frame between September 1998 and October 2005.

Seasonal components were taken into account in model specifications in all cases.

The growth of export and export to countries other than CIS member countries, import and import from countries other than CIS member countries in the period between January and March 2006 is predicted to account for 26%, 24%, 20% and 38% respectively as compared to the corresponding period in 2005.

Export surplus to all countries and countries other than CIS member countries in December 2005 and January March 2006 is expected to grow by an average of 30% and 12% respectively, as compared to the corresponding period of the previous year. The volume of export surplus to all countries is predicted to total 36 bln US dollars in the period between January and March 2006.

Price Movement Consumer price indices and producer price indices This section provides calculation of predictive values of consumer price index and producer price indices (both in industry as a whole and its branches according to the OKVEDs classification) obtained on the basis of times series models which were assessed according to the FSSSs data for the time frame between January 1999 and The Institute for the Economy in Transition (www.iet.ru) percentage terms ) percentage terms ) percentage terms ) percentage terms ) dollars per month) dollars per month) dollars per month) dollars per month) Growth year on year (in Growth year on year (in Growth year on year (in Growth year on year (in predictive values (billion US predictive values (billion US predictive values (billion US predictive values (billion US Bulletin of model analysis of short-term forecasts of socio-economic indicators in the Russian Federation, December October 2005 11. Listed in Table 5 are model calculation data of predictive values for the 1Q06 according to the ARIMA models, structural models (SM) and models constructed with the use conjuncture polls (CP).

Table Predictive values of price indices Producer price indices:

Month Predictive values according to ARIMA models (in terms of percentage of the preceding month) 102.1 101.5 100.6 103.7 100.8 101.5 100.8 101.2 99.7 100.8 100.4 101.0 101.0 100.9 100.January 2006 101.101.4 101.6 100.9 103.4 100.8 101.9 100.8 101.2 99.9 101.2 103.0 101.1 100.5 100.8 100.February 2006 101.March 2006 101.9 101.6 102.8 102.0 100.9 100.0 100.9 101.2 99.7 100.3 102.9 101.1 100.4 100.9 100.101.Predictive values according to ARIMA models (in terms of percentage of December 2004-2005) 102.1 101.5 103.7 100.8 101.5 100.8 101.2 99.7 100.8 100.4 101.0 101.0 100.9 100.January 2006 101.6 100.103.5 103.0 107.2 101.6 103.5 101.6 102.4 99.6 102.0 103.4 102.0 101.4 101.7 101.February 2006 103.0 101.105.4 104.7 109.4 102.5 103.5 102.5 103.6 99.4 102.3 106.4 103.1 101.9 102.7 101.March 2006 104.7 104.For reference: actual value over the corresponding periods 2004 (in terms of percentage of December 2003-2004) 102.6 100.5 95.7 100.9 104.9 100.7 100.8 101.9 101.4 91.7 101.7 101.3 102.4 101.January 103.8 101.8 94.2 101.8 111.5 100.7 101.0 102.7 102.5 95.0 102.9 102.4 103.5 102.February 105.2 104.4 103.2 102.8 111.8 101.1 101.4 103.1 101.8 97.3 103.9 104.3 104.7 103.March Note: all producer price index series belong to the trend stationary time series in the time frame between January 1999 and October 2005. The consumer price index is difference stationary time series within the time frame between November 1998 and October 2005.

Monthly inflation rates and the annual inflation rate are estimated to average 1.7% and 11.5% respectively in the 1Q06. Prices of industrial producers are forecasted to grow at 1.5% per month on average in the same period. Prices of industrial producers are predicted to grow by an average of 20.1% in 2005 according to the two models, which is above the consumer price growth rates.

The average monthly OKVEDs industrial production indices are forecasted to grow in the period between January and March 2006 as follows: 3.0% in mining operations, 0.8% in manufacturing industries, 1.2% in production of electric power energy, gas and water, 0.8% in production of food products, 1.2% in textile and garment manufacture, -0.2% in wood fashioning and woodworking, 0.8% in paper-pulp manufacturing, 2.1% in production of coke and oil products, 1.0% in chemical production, 0.6% in metallurgy and production of finished metal products, 0.9% in production of machinery and equipment, and 0.5% in production of transportation vehicles and equipment.

Price indices of industries are forecasted to grow at the level of 8.6% on average in terms of annual growth grates, except for the mining operations index, which is predicted to Structural models were assessed for the time frame since October 1998.

The Institute for the Economy in Transition (www.iet.ru) products equipment index (CP) woodworking index (ARIMA) Mining operations Chemical production Wood fashioning and energy, gas and water vehicles and equipment finished metal products consumer price index (SM) Manufacturing industries Production of coke and oil Paper-pulp manufacturing Production of food products consumer price index (ARIMA) Production of electric power Production of transportation Production of machinery and Metallurgy and production of Textile and garment manufacture Industrial product producer price Industrial product producer price Bulletin of model analysis of short-term forecasts of socio-economic indicators in the Russian Federation, December grow at 55.1%, and the price index in production of coke and oil products which is forecasted to be at the level of 35.5%.

Cost movement of the minimum set of food products This section presents predictive values of the cost of the minimum set of food products for the 1Q06. The forecasts were made on the basis of time series according to the FSSSs data in the period between January 2000 and October 2005. The estimates are listed in Table 6.

Table Forecast of the cost of the minimum set of food products (per capita per month) ARIMA model predictive values (RUR) January 2006 February 2006 March 2006 For reference: actual values over corresponding months in 2005 (RUR) January 2005 February 2005 March 2005 Predictive growth rates against the corresponding month in 2005 (in percentage terms ) January 2006 12.February 2006 11.March 2006 8.Note: the minimum set of food products series was used in relation to the corresponding period of the previous year. This series belongs to the DS time series within the time frame between January 2000 and October 2005.

As illustrated ( in Table 6 ), the value of the minimum set of food products is expected to grow in the period between January and March 2006, with its average predicted cost being about 1,420 rubles as compared to the corresponding period of the previous year. The growth in the cost of the minimum set of food products is predicted to average about 10.5% as opposed to the corresponding period of the previous year.

Cargo transportation rate indices This section provides the predictive values of price indices of cargo transportation rates12 obtained on the basis of times series models which were assessed according to the FSSSs data for the time frame between September 1998 and October 2005. Listed in Table 7 are model estimates of predictive values for the 1Q06. It should be noted that some of the indicators under review (for example, the pipeline transportation rate index) are regulable, which makes them difficult to be described by time series models. As a result, the obtained prospective values may differ largely from real ones in cases of centralized growth of rates within the forecasted time frame or in absence of such within the forecasted period, if increased recently.

The Bulletin considers the cargo transportation rate composite index and the motor vehicle cargo transportation rate index, as well as the pipeline transportation rate index. The cargo transportation rate composite index is calculated on the basis of cargo transportation indices for various means of transportation:

railway, pipeline, sea, domestic water, motor and air transportation (for more details refer to, for example:

Prices in Russia. Official publication of the Russian State Statistic Committee (Goskomstat), 1998).

The Institute for the Economy in Transition (www.iet.ru) Bulletin of model analysis of short-term forecasts of socio-economic indicators in the Russian Federation, December Table Predictive values of transportation rates Period Cargo Motor vehicle cargo Pipeline transportation transportation rate transportation rate composite index rate index index Predictive values according to ARIMA models (in terms of percentage of the preceding month) January 2006 102.7 102.1 104.February 2006 102.1 101.6 102.March 2006 100.4 100.6 100.Predictive values according to ARIMA models (in terms of percentage of December 2005) January 2006 102.7 102.1 104.February 2006 104.9 103.7 106.March 2006 105.3 104.4 107.For reference: actual value over the corresponding periods (in terms of percentage of the preceding month) January 2005 113.9 103.2 122.February 2005 100.1 100.8 100.March 100.0 100.3 99.Note: the motor vehicle cargo transportation rate index series was identified as a trend stationary time series within the time frame between October 1998 and 2005; various dummy variables were used for taking into account special bursts for all series.

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