On the whole, the requirements, as officially stated in the said Decision of the RF Government No. 379, are quite close to those established for including securities in the respective quotation list “A” of the first level109. Thus, according to Decision of the Federal Commission for Securities (FCS), dated January 4, 2002, “On Approving the Regulations on the Requirements to Organizers of Trading on the Securities Market”110, the market cost of shares must comprise no less than 300 mln roubles, the cost of net assets of the securi ties issuer must comprise for shares no less than 500 mln roubles, the average amount of monthly deals with securities calculated on the basis of the results for the last six (6) months, must be for shares no less than 2 mln roubles. The list of shares which the respec tive pension monies are allowed to be invested in, can indeed be made wider than the quo tation list “A” of the first level since the issuer, on the one hand, can fully correspond to the requirements established for the quotation list “A” of the first level but on the other hand, for such or other reasons, has not yet became its part. Among the shares en tered in this category, judging by the lists which were compiled by the respective managing companies on the basis of their own analytical investigations, are shares of such largest companies as “Aeroflot”, “Norilsk Nickel”, “Severstal”, “Sibirtelecom” and “Surgut neftegas”. Their total capitalization amount on the date of March 31 comprised approxi mately 53 bln US dollars. On the other hand, however, the common shares of the Stoylensk OMPE (Ore mining and processing enterprise) are included in the MICS quota tion list “A” of the first category but the volume of trading in them is less than the average monthly amount of market deals with shares of JSS as established by the known Decision of the RF Government No. 379. Yet, they remain to be in the listing.
According to our estimations, capitalization of issuers in whose shares the pension savings were permitted to be invested, comprised, as of March 31, 2004, 208 bln US dollars or something about 83% of the summary capitalization volume (according to the data of the Red – Stars/Financial Informational Agency, capitalization amount of the Russian issuers comprised, as of March 30, 250.2 bln US dollars). The summary volume of trading in respective shares which are included in the “A” list of the first level, com prised, for the five years of 2004, 85% of the total volume of the MICS trading in shares for the same period.
As established in the said Decision of the RF Government No. 379, requirements to bonds quite coincide with such for requirements to include bonds in the quotation list “A” of the first level in accordance with the FCS Decision No. 1 pc. Thus, the market cost of bonds in which the respective pension savings are permitted to be invested, must com prise no less than 30 mln roubles. The average monthly amount of market deals with the state securities of a RF subject, municipal bonds as well as with bonds of the Russian eco nomic societies as calculated according to the results of the last six (6) months, must comprise no less than 400 thousand roubles.
Later, certain changes were introduced in the said Decision which directly pointed at the necessity to include securities in the quotation lists “A” of the first level so that they could be acquired with the monies of the pension savings.
The Decision of the FCS, dated December 26, 2003, entered into force beginning from July 1, 2004.
Institutional and Macroeconomic Challenges As of early April, the MICS quotation list “A” of the first level included bonds of nine (9) issuers. Yet, the volume of trading in the “MMK” JSS bonds which are included in the top listing category, does not fully comply with the limitations as established by the Deci sion of the RF Government No. 379 for the average amount of deals with bonds of the Rus sian economic societies. The summary volume in the circulation of the corporate bonds issues in which the non state managing companies may invest part of the respective pen sion savings, comprised, according to the estimations as of the end of the first quarter 2004, comprised approximately 14% of the total volume in the corporate bonds circulation at face value. According to the data on issues at the MICS, the volume of the respective trading in January – May comprised about 30% of the aggregate secondary trading vol ume in the MICS corporate bonds segment111.
The sub federal and municipal bonds are basically traded in two respective stock ex changes – the MICS and the SPCS (St Petersburg Currency Stock Exchange). The said MICS quotation list “A” of the first level includes bonds from all RF subjects whose total is sue volume comprises 88.7 bln roubles, and the respective municipal bonds of one issuer (the issue volume comprises 0.7 bln roubles). The dominant position here belongs to bonds issued by the Government of Moscow. The respective SPCS quotation list of the first level includes only those bonds issued by the Finance Committee under the Saint – Petersburg’s Administration (a number of issues in circulation the total volume of which comprised, as of March 1, 2004, 10.6 bln roubles) but the managing companies which took an active part in the discussion of the investment matters in the press, simply ignored them.
Among the sub federal bonds which were taken by the respective managing compa nies as fully corresponding to the criteria set up in the said Decision of the RF Government No. 397, but which are not included in the quotation list “A” of the first level, presented are bonds of the Irkutsk, Kostroma, Tomsk, Yaroslavl regions and the Chuvash Republic. The respective managing companies also paid attention to the municipal bonds of the city of Novosibirsk as permitted for respective investing. The total issue volume of these bonds comprises 41.1 bln roubles and they satisfy the necessary requirements both to the issue volume and to the turnover of the respective trading for investing pension savings in them but they are nevertheless included in the MICS quotation list “B”.
On the whole, even if the additional requirements have been taken into due consid eration, the list of permitted instruments for investing provides the managing companies with quite a sufficient choice of instruments necessary for investing such amounts of the pension savings which they were able to obtain for the respective asset management. Be sides, the prospect of significantly increasing this amount in the feasible future seems to be rather vague, particularly so if we proceed from the amendments to the Federal Law “On Compulsory Pension Insurance in the Russian Federation”, approved by the State Duma, in accordance with which, citizens who had been born before the year of 1967, are excluded from the saving pension system which is inevitably leading to the reduction of the respective premiums to the saving pension system approximately by 23% in the year of 2005.
* * * In the autumn of 2004, 376 thous. people more of the 42 mln insured persons de cided to transfer their pension savings to the respective private managing companies and The list of corporate bonds issuers which are not included in the top level quotation list but the acquisition of which does not exclude non state managing companies, includes “Bashkirenergo”, “Bashinformsviaz” “Mechel” and “Centrtelecom”.
The total volume of bonds issue by these issuers comprises 2.25 bln roubles.
RUSSIAN ECONOMY in trends and outlooks non state pension funds. Most of the applications – 256 thous. – were made by the citizens in favour of the non state pension funds (NPF). The leading position in the quantity of cli ents – more than 60 thous. belongs to the “Lookoil Guarant”, 38 funds were unable to conclude at least one respective agreement, 22 funds – less than 1 thous.112 clients (funds enjoy the right to draw pension savings according to the official data of the Pension Fund of the Russian Federation). The real quantity of citizens who made their choice in fa vour of the non state form of managing their pension savings, for the period of two years, is less than the amount of applications which came to the Pension Fund of the Russian Fed eration. According to the information which appeared in the mass media means, part of the clients who last year elected private managing companies, this year changed their minds and turned to the said Non State Pension Fund.
4.6. Realty market in the Moscow Region:
some results and forecast Results of the year of 2004; the turning point in the trend In the year of 2004, quite significant impacts on the Russian realty market were ex erted by the processes undergoing in the Russian economy as a whole113.
Actually, the early part of the year of 2004 was not fraught with any threatening changes on the Moscow realty market: quite preserved remained the record price growth rates on realty which fully corresponded to the earlier obtained regression dependence of these rates on the level of the world oil prices114. It should probably be reminded in this re spect that in the period of 2002 – 2003, with the oil prices comprising 18 to 20 USD per barrel, the growth rates of realty prices were rather insignificant, with the oil prices com prising 25 –26 USD per barrel, they grew up to 2% a month, with such prices comprising 29 to 30 USD per barrel, these already reached 3.5 – 4.0%. Averagely, 1 USD per barrel growth of oil prices accounted for 0.35 % growth of the monthly price rates on realty. Dur ing the year of 2003, this corresponded to half the total increment in the respective prices which comprised then 45 %. Similar regularities were also observed on the realty market of Moscow, the Moscow Region (Fig. 22) and St. Petersburg. By the Autumn of 2003, such growth of prices went outside the confines of the Russia’s European part having thus acquired a somewhat universal character.
In connection with this, growth of realty prices in Moscow for the year of 2004 was forecasted115 at the 2003 level, i.e. 35 to 40 % (from 1594 to 2100 – 2300 USD per sq. m).
Two possible scenarios were considered then. According to the first and most probable of these, expected was a rather gradual asymptotic transition to the price stabilization at the level of 2100 – 2200 USD per barrel accompanied with the further 5 to 10 per cent “infla tionary” increase during the next two – three years. In accordance with the second sce nario, the price level could comprise then 2100 to 2200 USD per barrel in the year of followed then by a 20 to 25 per cent “roll back” of the realty prices and a fluctuating stabili zation (the “price bubble” scenario).
Finance. 08. 11. 2004.
This section contains the monitoring data on the Moscow realty market carried out by the MIEL Realty company (Sternik, G.M., Lutzkov, V.M. Certified Analyst of the Realty Market [CARM]), RMLC (Sapozhnikov, A.Yu. CARM), “IK «DM Fund»” (Kolokolnikov, D.A. CARM), independent analyst Beketov, A.G. (CARM).
Sternik, G.M., Forecast of the Moscow Realty Market Development till the Year of 2005. The AEKSIP Report. April 2003.
Sternik, G.M. Realty Market in Moscow: results of the year. www.realtymarket.org. January 2004; Russian Economy in 2003. Trends and Perspectives. Issue 25. M.: IET. February 2004, pp. 383 – 393.
Institutional and Macroeconomic Challenges Moscow Moscow Region Fig. 22. Dynamics of the average specific prices for supply of living apartments in Moscow and the Moscow Region in the years of 2002 – Practically, the de facto dynamics of prices in Moscow on the whole did correspond to the second forecast scenario during the first five (5) months of the year of 2004 but al ready in June July there followed a sudden change in the said trend, that is transition from growth of the respective turnovers and prices (which lasted during more than three years) to stabilization. At that, the realty market during the first half year was characterized with lower sales of the living apartments and continued price growth (the average specific price of realty supply at the secondary market in Moscow grew from 1594 to 1950 USD per sq. m or by 22.3 % in the period from December 2003 to June 2004) while the second half was characterized with slow restoring rates of the sales volumes and the stable supply prices which were fluctuating within the 1944 – 1953 USD per sq. m range. As to the Mos cow Region, the average specific realty prices there grew from 748 to 908 USD per sq. m (by 21.3 %) during the first seven months and then stayed rather stable at the level of 903 – 915 USD per sq. m (see: Table 8, Fig. 22).
Table Dynamics of the growth and price index rates on realty in Moscow in 2002 – 2004 (December 2001 is the datum period) Moscow Moscow Region Average Index of Average Index of Growth rates Growth rates Month, specific growth by specific growth by (to preced (to preced year price of re datum pe price of re datum pe ing period), ing period), alty USD/sq. riod (nomi alty USD/sq. riod (nomi % % m nal) m nal) 12.01 940 1,00 – 471 1,00 – 12.02 1096 1,166 16,6 559 1,187 18,12.03 1594 1,696 45,4 748 1,588 33,06.04 1950 2,074 22,3 898 1,906 20,12.04 1953 2,078 0,15 908 1,928 1,12.04* 1953 2,078 22,5* 908 1,928 21,4* * Values characterizing respective growth in December 2004 as compared against December 2003.
$ ì jul. jul. jul. feb. oct. feb. oct. feb. oct. jan. jan. jan. dec. apr. jun. sep. nov. dec. apr. jun. sep. nov. dec. apr. jun. sep. nov. dec. mar.may mar.may mar.may aug. aug. aug. RUSSIAN ECONOMY in trends and outlooks On the whole, the nominal USD prices grew during the year of 2004, as compared against such during the December of 2003, by 22.5% (by 17% in 2002, by 45% in 2003), in the Moscow Region by 21.4% (by 18.7% in 2002, by 33.8% in 2003). As compared against December 2001, such growth comprised 2.07 times in Moscow and 1.93 times in the Moscow Region.