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If we proceed from the data on the returns received from the temporary placement of insurance premiums in the saving part of the labor pension in 2002 which comprised 1.bln roubles, as stated in the Federal law On Performing the Budget of the Pension Fund of the Russian Federation for the Year of 2002, then most of the returns from investing the said premiums collected in 2002, come on the year of 2003 and the beginning of the year of 2004. However, it does not seem possible to make definite conclusions about it with a sufficiently high degree of assurance because of the absence of respective information on the methods of accounting used by the RF Pension Fund. In particular, it is not quite clear whether due account was taken of the unrealized exchange rate growth of securities in the year of 2002 or if all these returns were shown only by the results of the securities sales but the account was being performed at prices of the acquisition while the respective incomes from the said temporary placement in the year of 2002 were not reflected in full.

Returns from investing the premiums collected in 2003 by the results of the year, were estimated by the Pension Fund of the Russian Federation to comprise 2.015 bln rou bles106 although, like in the case with the insurance premiums for the year of 2002, it can be asserted that the resulting profitability from their investing will be significantly different from the respective intermediate data.

A rather significant part of the premiums collected which the Pension Fund of the Russian Federation received in 2002 but was unable to duly distribute to the respective bank accounts of insured persons and, accordingly, referred them to the category of uni dentified (of the total sum of 37.85 bln roubles, 33.68 bln roubles107 were distributed to respective personal bank accounts of the insured persons).

Profitability of investing insurance premiums for the saving part of the labor pension, collected by the Pension Fund of the Russian Federation in the year of 2002, comprised 40%. This high indicator is easily explainable taking into consideration the dynamics of prices on the euro bonds of the Russian Federation in which a significant part of the col lected premiums was invested. During the year of 2003 alone, prices on the issues which are in the portfolio of the RF Pension Fund, grew:

for the RF 10 issue 5.7%;

for the RF 28 issue 20.3%;

for the RF 30 issue 21.2.

Data for the year of 2003 are preliminary.

1.66 bln US dollars as recounted at the rate for the end of March 2004.

Commersant, 16. 04. 2004.

Rossiyskaya Gazeta, 31. 03. 2004.

RUSSIAN ECONOMY in trends and outlooks The period both for the acquisition and for selling the euro bonds turned out to be very successful. The Pension Fund of the Russian Federation became able to start invest ing its monies in the summer autumn of 2002 when prices on the most liquid RF30 issue were at the level of the face value, and it sold them at a price close to the face value, that is the profitability, due to the growth rate for the RF30 issue during this period alone, com prised about 43% in the US dollars.

Information on investing pension savings by the said management companies after they have received the respective monies from the Pension Fund of the Russian Federation is also of a rather episodic character. In 2003, such managing companies selected thousand people. Accordingly, they received 1.6 bln roubles from more than 47 bln rou bles of the total sum of the respective payments. The rest went to Vnesheconombank le gally appointed as the State Managing Company (SMC).

If distribution of funds is considered among private managing companies alone, then it is to be noted that 37% of the monies given for the asset management of the pension savings, account for only two managing companies Capital and the Rosbank managing company.

Choice of instruments for investing monies of pension savings In April 2004, the managing companies, which had successfully passed the competi tive testing for the right to conclude agreements on the asset management of the pension savings, started investing the monies transferred to them by the Pension Fund of the Rus sian Federation, according to respective applications of duly insured persons.

The aggregated structure of the investment portfolios of the non governmental man aging companies, as of the end of May, same year, is represented in Fig. 18.

According to the data on the 25th of May, the said managing companies invested in the state securities 78.3% of all the savings of those who entrusted to them for duly asset management. 0.53% of the monies were invested in the shares of the Russian companies, 0.5% in the bonds of the RF subjects, 0.57% in the corporate bonds. The respective monies and deposits account for 12.9% of the pension savings volume including 9.67% invested in roubles and 3.01% in foreign currency. Another 7.14% went to other assets.

state securities 7,shares 3,sub-federal bonds corporate bonds 9,deposits in roubles deposits in foreign 0,57 currency other assets 0,0,78,Fig. 18.Investing monies of the pension savings by the respective managing companies as of May 25, Section 4.

Institutional and Macroeconomic Challenges Thus, the part of shares and corporate bonds turns out to be much less than the maximal permitted values.

RusIndex Titans 1500 1 RusIndex 10 [USD] (left axis) 2 RTS index [USD] (right axis) Sources: www.rts.ru, www.djindexes.com Fig. 19. Dynamics of the RTS and Ruslndex Titan 10 index values (in the US dollars) Source: www.micex.ru Fig. 20. Dynamics of the MICS (Moscow International Currency Stock Exchange) index of corporate bonds ECONOMY in trends and outlooks The decisive influence on carefulness of the managing companies with regard to such instruments was indeed exerted by the negative situation on the stock exchange market (see Fig. 19 and 20). In April, the said market seemed to be a sort of overheated but then recession began which continued in May as well. The greatest decrease fell on the blue chips and the most liquid issues of the corporate and sub federal bonds. Nega tive impacts on the price dynamics on the stock exchange market were exerted by both the lower level of the rouble liquidity in the banking system caused by the reduction of residuals on the corresponding accounts of respective banks, and high rates of the inter bank credits.

In countries with long traditions of collective investing, both the pension and invest ment funds play a stabilizing role in such situations since their investment horizons are typically oriented towards the long term perspective. In the USA of the 80s early 90s, for example, when private persons were intensively selling shares while net purchases of households were of negative value, net purchases of the pension funds were, on the con trary, of positive value during the whole period thus exerting smoothing influence on the general dynamics of the stock exchange market (see Fig. 21).

Bln dollars Households Pension funds 40 Total -------1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1991 Source: Federal Reserve Bulletin, November 1993.

Fig. 21. Net purchase of shares in the USA in 1980The Russian asset managers are so far more disposed to behave more in line with the situation which is, to a certain extent, provoked by the very model of the saving pen sions system where a person, insured once a year, enjoys the right to transfer his/her sav ings to any other managing company or a non government pension fund as well as the un certainly in the future fate of these very monies in the light of the Government declared measures aimed at financing the forecasted deficit of the Pension Fund of Russia budget.

Besides, the total volume of the monies transferred to various private managing compa nies, obviously could not exert any significant influence on the dynamics of the respective market indicators. The aggregate volume of trading in shares on the RTS and MICS stock exchanges in April comprised 353.4 bln roubles, in May it comprised but 211.5 bln roubles (in accordance with the official data published by the RTS and MICS). Thus, even if the sum of the pension savings in the amount of 1.6 bln roubles transferred to the respective Section 4.

Institutional and Macroeconomic Challenges managing companies, were fully and completely invested in the respective shares in April, would have comprised no more than 0.4% of the turnover. In May, this indicator would have comprised 0.7% of the total volume of sales. Since it was established by the Decision of the RF Government No. 379, dated 30.06.2003108, that no more than 40% of the pension savings can be invested in shares then the respective indicators undergo more than a double reduction, accordingly. A similar situation was developing with bonds as well. In April 2004, the summary volume of trading in the bonds segment at the MICS and RTS cites comprised 15.4 bln roubles of which 6.2 bln roubles were directed to corporate bonds, 9.1 bln roubles to the sub federal and 0.1 bln roubles to the municipal ones. In May, the summary volume of trading in bonds at the MICS and RTS cites comprised 8.bln roubles of which 2.3 bln roubles were directed to corporate bonds, 5.8 bln roubles to the sub federal and 01. bln roubles to the municipal ones. Thus, if we proceed from an as sumption that the respective private managing companies could invest in bonds maximally permitted volumes of the pension savings (50%) then these would comprise 5.2% in April 2004 and 9.8% in May 2004. Since the probability of investing monies of the pension sav ings in the maximal permitted volumes is rather miserable, then the respective shares of pension savings in the trading volumes of bonds and shares should indeed be less and they are not very likely to exert any significant influence on the respective markets of shares and corporate bonds.

At the same time, as clearly shown by analysis of the publications devoted to the ini tial investing stage of pension savings carried out by respective non Government manag ing companies, not all them proved to be ready for work in this new segment of the market.

Thus, a certain part of the managing companies faced a problem of selecting the investing instruments on their own, not transgressing at that certain limitations set up by the Federal Law On Investing Monies for Financing the Saving Part of the Labor Pension in the Rus sian Federation, the Investment Declaration and other complementary quantitative limita tions for issuers of securities as established by the said Decision of the RF Government, No. 379. This, first of all concerns questions of the necessary informational support for in vesting in securities of various non Government issuers.

The form in which some of the requirements to securities for investing pension sav ings were formulated in the said Decision of the RF Government No. 379, really turned out to be far from being the best. As noted by the managing companies, the selection process of securities is extremely labor intensive and, accordingly, is very time taking.

In accordance with the said Decision of the RF Government No. 379, investing the monies of the pension savings which the respective management companies have in their asset management, in shares is limited by such issuers whose shares are included in the stock exchange quotation lists. The market cost of such shares must comprise no less than 300 mln roubles, the cost of net assets of the securities issuer must comprise for shares no less than 500 mln roubles, the average monthly sum of market deals with the shares of Open Joint Stock Societies (OJSS), as calculated according to the results of the last six (6) months, must comprise no less than 2 mln roubles. Besides, such issuer must have no less than 1000 shareholders and work without any losses the last two years as minimum.

Nevertheless, some questions inevitably arise to which the said Decision of the RF Government No. 379 does not give any sufficiently clear answer. For example: with what Besides, the RF Ministry of Finance issued Order No. 27H, dated March 5, 2004, On establishing the criteria of placing monies of the pension savings in the assets as stated in sub points 2 4 and 6, point 1, p. 26 of the Federal Law No.111 F3, dated July 24, 2002 On Investing monies to finance the saving part of the labor pension in the Russian Federation, but it does not contain any amendments to the demands as stated in the said Decision of the RF Government No.379.

RUSSIAN ECONOMY in trends and outlooks periodicity must the managing companies check the correspondence degree of those is suers whose shares they bought for their portfolios, to the established requirements Be sides, information with regard to the cost of net assets is not freely available so its estima tion is quite hard for managers to make. Also, it is extremely difficult to collect such necessary information on issuers in whose securities private managing companies invest pension savings, as quantity of the share holders, periodicity of the publications and the composition of accounting.

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