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The real sector % Months 70 65 Loading 60 55 50 Sufficiency 45 40 35 1/93 1/94 1/95 1/96 1/97 1/98 1/99 1/00 1/01 1/02 1/03 1/04 1/Fig. 37. Capacity Loading Rate (as %) and Sufficiency with Orders (as Months) However, the dynamics of another survey indicator testifies in favor of an increasing exhaustion by the national industrial sector of a overhang (or reserve) of excessive ca pacities. The enterprises assessments of excessiveness, sufficiency and shortage of the existing production capacities due to envisaged changes in demand demonstrated a dras tic fall in the proportion of enterprises with excessive capacities right in the 4th quarter (Fig.38). As a result, a. 20% of enterprises report their capacities be excessive vis vis the envisaged demand such low a proportion of enterprises with excessive capacities never noted since 1993. In the second half 2004, the capacities shortage in the industrial sector stabilized at 14%, which beat the preceding record value (13% in 2000) and just by 1 point missed the absolute record of 1993. But as the comparison between 1993 and seems incorrect, it can be argued that Russian industrial sector presently is in a record breaking need for production capacities. But overall across the sector there have been more enterprises with excessive capacities than those falling short of them, which is why the respective balance remains positive, albeit it has sunk to its absolute minimum. The capacities overhang has still been there, which leaves some inertia to Russian industries, meaning it for some time would not be in urgent need for investment. Once the overhang fades, the future industrial growth will be limited already by a physical shortage of competi tive capacities.

RUSSIAN ECONOMY in trends and outlooks Sufficient % Excessive Insufficient 1/93 1/94 1/95 1/96 1/97 1/98 1/99 1/00 1/01 1/02 1/03 1/04 1/Fig. 38. The Proportion of Enterprises with Sufficient, Excessive and Insufficient Capacities The post default rise in the sales volume changes enterprises view on a normal vol ume of demand and, accordingly, on sufficiency of their capacities to meet that. The com putations of balances of assessments of capacities made for main demand assessments show that the national enterprises have already fallen short of capacities to secure normal demand volumes with their output. The average annual balance of capacities assessments in the group of enterprises with normal demand for their output for the first time became negative in 2004. Thus, the further industrial growth, in all likelihood, will result in a rise in the shortage of capacities capable to meet the demand. Let us note that breaking enter prises into groups by another two parameters (size and property form) did not result in negative balances of the capacities assessments, with considerable negative balances found only while studying into the sectoral specifics of the non ferrous metallurgy ad for estry. As well, they have been noted recently in the ferrous metallurgy.

Section 3.

The real sector Balance Demand below the norm -10 Normal demand -1/93 1/94 1/95 1/96 1/97 1/98 1/99 1/00 1/01 1/02 1/03 1/04 1/Fig. 39. Balances of Assessments of Capacities for Different Demand Assessments The binary logistical regression enables us to assess which factors compel Russian industrial enterprises to consider the equipment shortage to form an impediment to pro duction growth. As before, we are going to use enterprises responses to the question as to whether or not the shortage of equipment forms an impediment to economic growth. It was demand assessments that had the strongest and always substantial impact on the probability of the shortage of equipment. As soon as demand volumes, according to the enterprises assessments, elevated from the below norm category to the normal one, the enterprises began to face a shortage of equipment, which became especially notable in 2001 and 2004. Thus, normality in the domestic industrial sector implies mobilization of all the personnel and equipment available and the possibility of their more intense intro duction to production.

The second position by intensity of their effect on the probability of reference to equipment shortages is held by indicators of finished products in stock actual and ex pected changes of their volumes, as well as the current assessments of those by the above norm normal below norm scale. In 2001, the actual changes in the stock of fin ished products had positive and significant coefficients, which meant that once the vol umes lowered, the enterprises were compelled to cite a shortage of equipment as an im pediment to growth in its output. That could occur in the event of an unforeseen by enterprises rise in demand, which they had to meet from their stored reserves, while the completing of the latter by means of intensification of output became problematic, be cause of the shortage of the equipment that could manufacture the much needed pro duce. Let us note that it was in 2001 that Russian industrial sector seemed to abandon the mission of minimization of the stock of finished produce in favor of the task of maintaining them in an excessive state, which allows enterprises to meet new consumers demand in an instant. Most likely, this particular transition compelled enterprise to cite the lack of equipment. The dynamics of the stock of finished products over the subsequent years has not any longer been affecting the probability of referring to equipment shortages as an ob RUSSIAN ECONOMY in trends and outlooks stacle to boost of output the lack of equipment has presently begun to be determined by assessments of finished produce in stock. Positive coefficients for this variable speak that the probability of mentioning equipment shortages as an obstacle grows, providing a given enterprise assesses its stock as insufficient. In 2004, it also was forecasts of changes in the stock of finished produce that forced enterprises to focus on equipment shortages.

The projected lowering of volumes of finished produce in stock requires production expan sion, but faces the problem of equipment and machinery being in short supply.

Despite the capacities loading and sufficiency with orders have a substantial and logical effect on the problem of equipment shortage, their rates appear very insignificant.

The dynamics of demand, as well as the dynamics of output do not substantially affect the probability of citing the impediment in question.

*** The dynamics of effective demand for the national industrial enterprises produce quite allowed the domestic industries to maintain high growth rates in 2004, at least, not worse than in the prior years. By the 4th quarter of the year the constraining effect of de mand slid to minimum, while the satisfaction with its volume peaked maximum and over shot the below norm assessments. Thus, most Russian enterprises have adapted to market. The factors that determine the level of their market adaptation became the dynam ics of demand, assessments of finished produce in stock and enterprises financial and economic state, the dynamics of profit, and the absence of excessive capacities.

The monitoring of impediments to production growth shows highlighted the emer gence of a new structure in the domestic industrial sector. With the frequencies of citing most of traditional impediments continuing their fall, some of them hit record breaking low values. Some others, by contrast begin to affect an increasingly greater number of enter prises. The regression analysis results showed that in 20002004 it was only the reference to the personnel and equipment shortages that was de facto associated with an actual production decline.

At the outset of every year Russias industrial sector usually demonstrates good growth rates and high optimism of forecasts. The year of 2005 has formed no exception in this respect, with its start being yet even more vigorous than before. Should the industrial sector succeed in overcoming the growing staffing and equipment starvation, as well as the banking systems distrust, the economy growth forecasts could be revised in favor of their increase.

3.3. Investments in the Real Sector of the Economy In the 20002004 period, growth in investment in fixed capital was higher than dy namics of the GDP and output of primary industries. Analysis of dynamics and specifics of formation of demand in investment in the post crisis period permitted to identify (depend ing on the impact of factors) the following few stages:

Mobilization of competitive reserve capacities in a situation of a radical drop in import of capital goods from the 3rd quarter 1998 to the 3rd quarter 1999;

Growth in domestic demand in Russian investment products from the 3rd quarter to the 4th quarter 2000 caused by intense growth in domestic production, profitability and income thanks to favorable changes in prices on international markets;

Slow down of investment in fixed capital from the 1st quarter 2001 due to intense growth in domestic consumer demand caused by an increase in households income Section 3.

The real sector and decrease in income from exports due to a drop both in prices and demand in hy drocarbons on international markets;

From the second half of 2001, growth in import volumes of machinery and equipment and a share of foreign capital goods in investment expenditure in a situation of slow dy namics of domestic output of engineering industry;

Sluggish dynamics of demand in investment in 2002 due to a decrease in income from foreign economic activities, reduction of the domestic market and reduced profitability of production;

From the beginning of 2003, resumed higher growth rates of investment in fixed capital as compared to the GDP dynamics because of growth in income from foreign eco nomic activities and business activities at home;

Smaller impact of growth rates of investment in fixed capital on dynamics of the do mestic market in a situation of growing income from exports and reduced transforma tion thereof into investment resources from the 2nd quarter 2004.

I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV -1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 -GDP Investment in fixed assets Export -Fig. 40. Rates of growth in the GDP and investment in the fixed capital in the 19982004 (% of the respective quarter in the previous year) From 1999, growth in accumulation and investment was faster than dynamics of GDP. In 2004, growth in investment in fixed capital amounted to 10.9% (the GDP 7.1%).

Growth in demand in investment ensured nearly 25% of an increase in the volume of the GDP.

Intense growth in income of the economy had a significant effect on the specifics of investment activities. It was related, on one hand, to favorable changes in prices on hydro carbon materials and metals in international markets and, on the other hand, an active pol icy by the Russian business which was aimed at filling in niches on the domestic market with Russian goods (Fig. 40). Growth in profitability of production and income from foreign RUSSIAN ECONOMY in trends and outlooks economic activities initiated an expansion of demand in capital goods, which was based on higher rates of output of related industries. Aimed at intensive modernization and upgrad ing of production, both the export sector and manufacturing industry experienced greater need in machinery and equipment.

In a situation of existing imbalances between dynamics of fixed capital and invest ment expenditure on the domestic capital market, dynamic growth in import machinery and equipment had a greater role to play (with seasonal factors excluded, a decrease in the share of imports in the volume of consumption of engineering industrys products be gan in 4th quarter 1998 and was over in the 3rd quarter 1999). A rise in demand in import machinery and equipment took place in 2000; faster growth rates of import machinery and equipment as compared to dynamics of domestic engineering industry became sustained and corresponded to dynamics of investment activities. In the 20002004 period, growth in output of engineering industry and building materials industry amounted to nearly 60% and 37.7%, respectively, with volumes of import machinery and equipment and means of transportation increasing by 150% (Fig. 41).

1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 ----Machine engineering Industry of building materials Investment in fixed capital Import of machinery and equipment Fig. 41. Growth rates of investment in fixed capital, output and import of capital goods in the 19922004 period (% of the previous year figure) Dynamics of output of capital goods by the branch of engineering industry reflected prompt response by the Russian business to changes in market situation at home.

Whereas in the 19921997 period, motor industry was a factor, which prevented recession in engineering industry, in the 19992004 period it yielded that place to industrial equip ment manufacturing. Branches specializing in manufacturing of equipment for oil and chemical industries and domestic market oriented branches of engineering industry, such as railway engineering and metallurgical engineering were leaders as regards output of investment goods. Intense development of service industries gave an impetus to growth in Section 3.

The real sector output of road building engineering, lifting equipment manufacturing, communication in dustry and instrument making industry. Higher competitive advantages of domestic engi neering as compared to those of foreign analogs (as regards pricing) promoted growth in output of equipment meant for branches of the consumers sector.

Replacement of worn equipment remained a principal line of investment in fixed capi tal. In 2004, about 33.3% of entities increased their production capacities with a product range still unchanged. In nearly 4047% of entities, investment activities were determined by higher efficiency of production related to introduction of new production technologies, reduction of production costs and saving of energy resources. As a result, in 2004 a larger portion of investment in fixed capital was spent on purchase of machinery and equipment.

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