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Table Domestic Prices for Oil, Oil Products and Natural Gas in USD Equivalent in 19972004 (average producer prices, USD/t.) 1997 1998 1999 2000 (December) (December) (December) (December) (December) Oil 63.1 16.4 37.0 54.9 49.Automobile petrol 169.6 63.4 171.9 199.3 151.Diesel fuel 170.0 52.9 125.0 185.0 158.Black oil 73.8 22.0 46.1 79.7 47.Gas,,USD./Thos. cub.m. 6.6 2.1 2.2 3.1 4.Table 11 (contd) 2002 2003 2004 2004 (December) (December) (June) (September) (December) Oil 60.7 70.1 87.5 103.0 123.Automobile petrol 168.8 236.9 275.1 318.8 333.Diesel fuel 153.8 214.3 244.6 300.3 364.Black oil 66.1 66.0 94.9 93.2 69.Gas,,USD./Thos. cub.m. 5.9 4.4 9.7 9.8 10.Source: Computed basing on the data by the Federal State Statistics Service Between January through November 2004 Russias oil export grew by 13.3%, while that of oil products by 5.3% vs. the respective period of the prior year (Table 12). The share of export in the production of black oil accounted for 70%, diesel fuel 54.2, petrol 14% (for reference: in 1999, the share of export in the production of petrol accounted just for 7.2%). High world process for oil generated a considerable rise in export proceeds.

The oil export in value equivalent reached USD 52.9 bln., or grew by 47.7% between Janu ary through November 2004 vs. the respective period of the prior year, thus being 3 times greater than the increment in the physical volume of oil export. The proportional weight of oil export in the total volume of Russian exports over the period in question accounted for 32.6% (vs. 29.7% reported over the respective period of 2003).

Because of the rise in domestic prices for oil products and the Rb. appreciation in real terms, import of oil products showed a notable rise. Overall, over the period in ques tion the respective rate grew 3.3 times vs. the respective period of the prior year, while im RUSSIAN ECONOMY in trends and outlooks port of automobile petrol alone grew 7.6 times, with the share of import in petrol resources growing from 0.2 up to 1.7%. The proportional weight of import has remained very low, nevertheless. For instance, in the first half 1998, i.e. prior to the Rb. depreciation, the pro portional weight of import in petrol resources was 8.7%.

Natural gas export rates grew vs. the prior year, which can be explained by the grow ing supplies to the CIS countries (they grew by 19.2% over the period in question).

Table Export of Oil, Petroleum Derivatives and Natural Gas from Russia (as % to the Respective Period of the Prior Year) 2002 (January November) Oil, total 113.9 117.8 113.Including: to the non CIS countries 109.9 118.9 114.To the CIS countries 137.3 112.4 107.Oil products, total 118.5 103.6 105.Including: to the non CIS countries 119.1 102.6 104.To the CIS countries 102.8 132.3 126.Gas, total 102.4 102.0 106.Source: the Federal State Statistics Service.

As the analysis of the data on output and export of oil and oil products (Table 13) shows, most (over 95%) of extra output of oil was exported (either directly, or in the form of petroleum derivatives). In 2004, according to preliminary assessments, the net export of oil and oil products accounted for 327.7 mln.t., i.e. at 32.3 mln. t. thanks to the rise in the export of oil and 3.8 mln.t. at the expense of the export of oil products). In other words, as in 200003, it was once again the boost of export that determined a considerable rise in the 2004 oil output. As a result, the proportional weight of the net export of oil and oil prod ucts in the oil output reached 71.4%, while the net export of oil exceeded 53% of its output.

Because of the rise in both domestic and external demand for gas, 2004 saw a continuous boom in the the natural gas output, with the proportional weight of its net export in the out put being over 30%.

Table Correlation between Output, Consumption and Export of Energy Sources in 1997 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 (esti mated) Oil, mln.t.

Production 305.6 303.4 305.0 323.2 348.1 379.6 421.4 458.Export, total 126.9 137.1 134.5 144.5 159.7 187.5 223.5 253.Export to the non CIS 109.8 117.9 115.7 127.6 137.1 154.8 186.4 213.countries Export to the CIS countries 17.1 19.2 18.8 16.9 22.7 32.7 37.1 40.Net export 119.0 129.2 128.5 138.7 154.7 181.3 213.4 245.Domestic consumption 132.2 125.1 120.5 123.0 122.9 123.5 129.8 131.Net export, as % to output 38.8 42.4 42.1 42.9 44.4 47.8 50.6 53.Oil products, mln.t.

Export, total 60.6 53.8 56.9 61.9 70.8 75.0 78.4 82.Export to the non CIS 58.4 51.2 53.9 58.4 68.3 72.5 74.9 78.countries Export to the CIS countries 2.2 2.6 3.0 3.5 2.5 2.6 3.5 4.Net export 56.6 51.0 50.3 61.5 70.5 74.8 78.2 82.Section 3.

The real sector 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 (esti mated) Oil and oil products, mln.t.

Net export of oil and oil 173.4 178.3 184.5 200.2 225.2 256.1 291.6 327.products Net export of oil and oil 56.7 58.8 60.5 61.9 64.7 67.5 69.2 71.products, as % to oil output Natural gas, cub.m. billion Production 571.1 591.0 590.7 584.2 581.5 594.5 620.3 634.Export, total 200.9 200.6 205.4 193.8 180.9 185.5 189.3 200.Export to the non CIS 120.9 125.0 131.1 133.8 131.9 134.2 142.0 144.countries Export to the CIS countries 80.0 75.6 74.3 60.0 48.9 51.3 47.3 56.Net export 196.4 197.6 201.3 189.7 176.8 178.3 180.5 192.Domestic consumption 374.7 393.4 389.4 394.5 404.7 416.2 439.8 442.Net export, as % to output 34.4 33.4 34.1 32.5 30.4 30.0 29.1 30.Aggregate indicators Oil and gas output, as mln.

819.6 835.3 836.6 849.0 871.5 914.7 979.7 1029.t. of oil equivalent Net export of oil, oil prod ucts and gas, as mln. t. of 350.2 356.1 365.7 370.9 384.3 416.6 454.1 500.oil equivalent Domestic consumption of oil and gas, as mln. t. of oil 469.4 479.2 470.9 478.1 487.2 498.1 525.6 528.equivalent Net export of oil, oil prod ucts and gas, as % to the oil 42.7 42.6 43.7 43.7 44.1 45.5 46.4 48.and gas output Source: the Federal State Statistics Service; the RF Ministry of Fuel and Energy, the Federal Customs Service, the authors calculations.

The total export of oil and oil products grew from 301.9 mln.t. up to 335.8 mln.t. in 2004 (preliminary assessment), or at 11.2%. The structure of the oil export is still domi nated by the export of crude oil that accounts for of the overall export of oil and oil prod ucts. The export of oil products is consequently dominated by fuel oil, which Europe uses for further refining, and diesel fuel. Between January to November 2004 vs. The respective period of the prior year the export of natural gas grew by 6.1%. Notably, most energy sources (84% of oil, 95% of oil products and 72% of natural gas) was exported to the non CIS countries.

As the analysis of the dynamics of Russias oil export over a long period of time shows, the 2004 aggregate net export of oil and oil products has for the first time ever exceeded the 1998 record breaking level of oil export (291.6 mln.t.). In parallel with the rise in oil export, that of oil products has grown steadily since 1996. As a result, the pro portional weight of oil refining products in oil export grew from 18.2% in 1990 up to 25.0% in 2004 (Table 14). Because of the drastic fall in the domestic oil consumption (our computations show it fell from 269.9 mln.t. in 1990 to 131. 1 mln.t. in 2004, i.e.

more than twice), the proportional weight of export of oil and oil products in the oil out put grew from 47.7 up to 71.4% over the period in question. By contrast to the export of oil and oil products, the net export of natural gas and its share in the output has recently remained by the level of late 1990s, while the proportional weight of the net export of natural gas in the respective output has been slightly over the pre reform level (30.3% in 2004 vs. 28% in 1990).

RUSSIAN ECONOMY in trends and outlooks Table Structure of Net Export of Oil and Oil products 1990 2002 (estimated) Mln.t. % Mln.t. % Mln.t. % Mln.t. % Oil and oil prod 246.3 100.0 256.1 100.0 291.6 100.0 327.7 100.ucts Oil 201.5 81.8 181.3 70.8 213.4 73.2 245.7 75.Oil products 44.8 18.2 74.8 29.2 78.2 26.8 82.0 25.Source: the Federal State Statistics Service; the RF Ministry of Fuel and Energy, the International Energy Agency, the authors calculations In 2004, the aggregate net export of oil, oil products and natural gas for the second year in line exceeded the 1998 pre crisis maximum. We estimate its rise from 407.6 mln. t.

of oil equivalent in 1990 up to 500.5 mln.t. of oil equivalent in 2004, i.e. at 22.8%, while the proportional weight of the net export in the aggregate oil and gas output grew from 37.3 up to 48.6%. These data evidence a greater orientation of the sector towards export vis vis the pre reform period. However, it should be noted that this is explained not solely by the rise in absolute volume of export, but a considerable decline of the domestic consumption of oil and gas.

The high oil prices noted through the whole 2004 have fueled a considerable price rise in the oil sector. The nations aggregate revenues from the export of oil and main kinds of oil products between January through November 2004 reached USD 67.63 bln., while their proportional weight in Russias export accounted for 41.6%. The oil sectors (includ ing the oil and oil refining subsectors) aggregate profit (balance sheet financial results) between January through October 2004 accounted for USD 11.17 bln., accounting, at the same time, for 34.4% of the overall profit of the national industrial sector and 18.6% of the economy as a whole (the peak value was reached in 2001, with these particular indicators accounting for 39.4$ and 20.7%, respectively). Overall, the revenues of the oil sector se cured a high level of tax revenues to the state budget and enabled oil companies to run a relatively low level of accounts payable before their suppliers and the budgets of all levels (Table 15).

Table Financial Indicators of the Oil Sectors Performance in 19972004 (USD Bln.) 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004* Sale proceeds form ex port of oil and main 21.09 13.96 18.82 34.89 33.43 38.72 51.13 67.kinds of oil products Profit (balance sheet 3.52 0.60 6.32 10.42 8.14 4.32 6.70 11.financial result) Outstanding accounts 6.79 2.41 1.61 1.35 1.01 0.90 1.07 1.payable (as of end year) Including: to suppliers 2.38 0.94 0.72 0.55 0.52 0.59 0.85 1.To the budget 2.53 0.66 0.43 0.27 0.15 0.10 0.07 0.* The data on export over the period January November; on profit January October; accounts payable as of late October.

Source: computed basing on the data of the Federal State Statistics Service.

The year 2004 saw the introduction of a number of substantial changes to the system of taxation of the oil and gas sector. They have notably increased the tax burden on the sector, especially under high world prices for oil. Federal law No. 33 FZ of May 7, 2004, On introduction of amendments to Art. 5 of the law of the Russian Federation On cus Section 3.

The real sector toms tariff and Art. 5 of the federal law On introduction of amendments to Section II of the Tax Code of the Russian Federation and some other legal statutes of the Russian Federa tion, as well as on recognition of invalidity of some single legal statutes of the Russian Fed eration has modified the order of computation of the marginal (maximum) oil export duty rate. A new, more progressive scale for computation of the oil export duty marginal rate oriented towards withdrawal of an extra profit resulting from exportation of oil under high world prices for oil became effective as of August 1, 2004 (Table 16). The amount of the oil export duty reached USD 101/t. by late 2004.

Table Oil Export Duty Rates Duty rate, as USD/t.

World prices for Urals, Earlier effective scale New scale USD/barrel.

(2002 31 July 2004) (effective as of 1 August 2004) Up to 15 0 15 20 0.35(P15)7.0.35(P15)7.20 25 12.78+0.45(P20)7.Over 25 25.53+0.4(P25)7.3 29.2+0.65(P25)7.Source: Federal law No. 33 FZ of May 7, 2004, No. 126 FZ of August 8, Federal law No. 33 FZ of 7 May 2004 has also introduced new rates of the mineral production tax (MPT) for oil and natural gas, effective as of January 1, 2005, and modifica tions of the formula of computation of the coefficient that characterizes the dynamics of he world oil prices and applied to the basic rate of the tax. As of January 1, 2005, the basic rate of MPT has made up Rb. 419/t. (i.e. 20.7% up vs. 2004), while the coefficient that characterizes the dynamics of the world oil prices is computed according to the following formula:

Cp = (P 9) R / 261, where P the price level for Urals, as USD/barrel averaged over a given tax period;

R the average Rb/USD exchange rate set by CBR (Table 17).

As of January 1, 2005, the MPT rate for natural gas has been increased to Rb. 135/thos. cub.m. (from Rb. 107 in 2004, i.e. by 26.2%) Table MPT Rate on Oil 20022003 2004 MPT basic rate, Rb./t 340 347 the coefficient that characterizes the (P8)R/252 (P9)R/dynamics of the world oil prices (Cp) Source: Federal law No. 33 FZ of May 7, 2004, No. 126 FZ of August 8, The change in main indicators of the oil and gas sectors development that characterize production, domestic and external sales, prices, investment activity, and the state of payments and settlements is depicted on Fig. 1320.

RUSSIAN ECONOMY in trends and outlooks Pr oduction Expor t (including oil pr oducts) 100 Consum ption Source: the Federal State Statistics Service; the Federal Customs Service; International Energy Agency; the authors calculations.

Fig.13. Production, Consumption and Export of Oil in 19902004 (as mln. t.) Production Export 200 Consumption Source: the Federal State Statistics Service; the Federal Customs Service; International Energy Agency; the authors calculations.

Fig.14. Production, Consumption and Export of Natural Gas in 1990 (as cub. m. bln.) Section 3.

The real sector Oil Diesel fuel Source: computed basing on data of the Federal State Statistics Service.

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