In the past few years, there was a shift in gross savings from the non financial sector to households. With an increase in the share of households’ savings and restoration of confidence in savings institutions, growth in deposits by individuals in credit institutions was registered. In 2004, the volume of households’ cash income amounted to RUR10,779.5 billion, including savings and purchase of foreign currency which amounted to RUR1983.4 billion (an increase of 11.6% on the 2003 figure). The volume of ruble and foreign currency deposits by individuals in credit institutions amounted to RUR1894.7 bil lion as of December 1, 2004 (which is an increase of 23.0% as compared to the beginning of 2004, including growth in ruble deposits and foreign currency deposits by 22.1% and 9.4%, respectively). With growth in a savings portion of households’ income, the issue of transformation of savings into investments became of particular importance. From 1999, in the structure of households’ cash expenditure sustained growth in the share of expendi ture on purchase of real estate was observed. It gave a boost to business activities in hous ing development and on the secondary housing market. In the 2000–2004 period, the share of housing built by households at their own account and with use of loans amounted on average to 40.5%. In 2004, unit weight of expenditure on purchase of real estate grew by 1.0% on the 2000 figure and accounted for 2.2% of the total value of households’ cash income (Table 5).
On the basis of analysis of changes in the share of gross profit and entrepreneurial in come in the GDP, it can be asserted that average profitability of Russian economy tended to grow. An increase in the share of gross profit of the economy in the GDP was determined by growing efficiency in financial activities of enterprises and entities and a decrease in tax burden on production and imports starting from 2002. In the past five years, balance financial result accounted on average for nearly 12% of the GDP. In January November 2004, balance finan cial result of entities of the main branches of the economy amounted to RUR1952.6 billion (an increase of 54% on the same period figure in 2003). It is to be noted that balance financial re RUSSIAN ECONOMY in trends and outlooks sult was formed in equal portions through production of goods and rendering of services. How ever, within sectors there were branches, which had a dominating effect on generation and disposition of profits in national economy.
Table Structure of households’ cash incomes in the 1997–2004 period (%) 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 Cash expenditure and savings – 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 total Including :
Purchase of goods and payment of 68.7 77.7 78.5 75.5 74.6 73.2 69.0 69.services Mandatory payments and contribu 6.3 6.2 6.6 7.8 8.9 8.6 8.3 8.tions Purchase of real estate 0.8 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.4 1.8 2.0 2.Growth in financial assets 24.2 14.8 13.6 15.5 15.1 16.4 20.7 19.Including increase, decrease ( ) in 1.6 1.7 1.8 2.8 2.0 1.7 2.7 0.households’ cash funds Source: The State Committee for Statistics of Russia; the Federal Service of State Statistics.
Industry preserved its leading positions as regards growth rates of financial perform ances, which factor was primarily related to an increase in incomes of export oriented branches of fuel industry and metallurgical sector. According to the preliminary data of the Ministry of Economic Development and Trade, in 2004 balance financial result of oil indus try, ferrous industry, non ferrous industry and chemical industry increased by 140%, 150%, 50% and 70%, respectively, on the 2003 figure. Aggregate unit weight of export oriented branches in the total financial result of industry rose by 5% on the 2003 figure.
Growth in incomes of the export sector had a significant effect on related services indus tries, such as transport, communications and commerce, while domestic market oriented branches were left almost unaffected. The situation was less favorable in domestic market oriented branches of manufacturing industry. Though dynamics of balance result of the investment sector (due to growth in production costs as a result of an increase in expendi ture on labor and high domestic prices on energy sources and engineering materials) re mained within the domain of positive values, unit weight of engineering industry and build ing materials industry decreased by 3.2% in industry’s financial performance. In a situation of slowing rates of growth in food industry and recession in light industry, income of the consumer’s sector of industry fell by nearly 9.0% on the 2003 figure.
Comparison analysis of dynamics and structures of formation and allocation of the GDP has shown that in conditions where growth in external demand exceeds the rates of development of the domestic market there is large scale reallocation of financial, invest ment and labor resources to a small number of export oriented branches of extracting in dustry, processing industry and service industries.
3.1.2. Dynamic and Structure of Production of the GDP Bellow are factors which had a significant impact on development of Russian economy:
• a higher role of the external demand and export oriented branches of industry;
• speed up of growth rates of industries producing capital goods;
• higher growth in investment in fixed capital as compared to dynamics of the GDP and ultimate consumption;
• speed up of growth in imports of goods of ultimate consumption as compared to that in the domestic demand;
The real sector • intensive growth in services sector;
• growing gap between rates of real wages and salaries and those of labor efficiency;
• prevalence of high consumer demand in a situation where households tend to saving;
• speed up of growth in prices of manufactures of industrial products and tariffs on ser vices.
Services Sector In the 2002–2004 period, speed up of rates of growth in market services was ob served in Russian economy (Fig. 8). With added value in goods manufacturing sector in creasing by 6.3% in 2004, market services rose by 8.7%. Growing indices of the sector closely correlated with the level of business activities and structural changes in the econ omy. High growth in transportation services, communications, commerce and business activities aimed at ensuring operation of the market and fulfillment of transactions with real estate had a dominating effect on the services market.
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 ----Output of goods Output of services market services GDP Fig. 8. Change in the rates of production of goods and services by the sector of the economy in the 1994–2004 period (% of the previous year figure) In 2004, commercial cargo turnover grew by 6.2% with industrial output increasing by 6.1%. Export oriented industries contributed to a greater extent to growth in demand in transportation services. Growth in cargo turnover of pipeline industry amounted to 6.2% on the 2003 figure. Oil and oil products, ferrous and non ferrous metals, chemical and mineral fertilizers and wood products were still leaders as regards cargo transportation volumes.
Change in the structure of transportation services was determined by a general eco nomic situation, as well as handling of practical issues of coordination of transport infra structure. In 2004, volumes of carriage by car, rail and water inside the country increased by 100%, 30% and 4%, respectively, on the 1998 figure. The period of recovery growth was characterized by a decrease in the share of investments in development of rail trans port in a situation where in the same period the share of investment expenditure on devel RUSSIAN ECONOMY in trends and outlooks opment of highways increased by 13.5% and that of motor transport, by 1.3%. In the pe riod of the reforms, operational length of hard surface motor roads increased by nearly 200 thousand km with density of motor roads increasing from 23 km per 1000 sq. km in 1990 to 31.7 km per 1000 sq. km in 2003. Motor transport accounted for 75% of cargo carriage volumes and 73% of out of town passenger carriage volumes. Though the condi tion of Russia’s transportation system does not hinder economic growth, its low efficiency leads to higher transportation costs and a loss of incomes from transit carriage.
Communications industry is one of promising and rapidly developing industries of the economy. In 2004, volume of gross added value of communication services increased by 24.7% and amounted to 2.0% of the GDP. In the 2003 2004 period, annual average rates of growth in volumes of communication services amounted to 27.5% and exceeded by 17.2% the 2002 level. New communications operators accounted for nearly 60% of the to tal volume of communication services and over 50% of services rendered to the popula tion. Telephone service is one of the most widespread services of electrical communica tion. It accounted for 75% of all the income received from communication services, including mobile communications services (40%). As of January 1, 2005, the total number of cellular phone users amounted to nearly 70 million and increased by 34.5 million (or 97.2%) as compared to the beginning of 2004.
The phenomenon of Russian economy consists in sustained increase in the share of commerce in the structure of national economy. Development of commerce was accom panied by intensive development of its material and technical base and change in the structure of services. Growing role of organized forms of commerce in the structure of goods turnover contributed to intensive growth in sales premises, warehouses and ser vices. Commerce promoted growing demand in equipment, information services, commu nications services and transport. In 2004, the share of commerce in the GDP amounted to 22%, which corresponded to an average index in the past five years. It is to be noted that development of commerce was characterized by dynamic structural changes. Firstly, fa vorable changes in demand on international markets contributed to higher growth and in crease in unit weight of foreign trade in the structure of sales turnover. Secondly, whole sale trade volumes exceeded by nearly 100% those of retail trade. With increase in business activities, intensive growth in wholesale trade was maintained through expansion of demand in material and technical resources in the domestic market.
In 2004, the situation in retail trade can be characterized as follows:
• small business started to play a greater role in retail trade: it ensured nearly 50% of the retail trade volume, as against 48.7% in 2001 and 46.1% in 2000;
• in 2004, the share of non food products in the retail trade turnover (an indicator of a quality of life) amounted to 54.4% with an average index amounting to 53.6% in the 2001–2003 period;
• commodity stocks were stable and remained at the level of 34–35 days;
• share of import commodities in the retail trade turnover amounted to 43% and in creased by 2% on the 2001 figure;
In 2004, growth rates of prices on consumer goods amounted to 111.7%, as against 112% in 2003. It is to be noted that growth in trade volumes took place in a situation where growth in prices on non food commodities amounted to 107.4%, as against 109.2, while that in prices on food products, to 112.3%, as against 110.2%.
As a result of the aggregate effect of the above factors, the index of growth in retail trade turnover amounted to 112.1% on the previous year figure with unit weight in the GDP rising to 8.2%. In a situation where rates of economic growth slowed down late in 2004, Section 3.
The real sector speed up of dynamics of retail trade turnover had a favorable effect on the economic situation in general (Fig. 9).
I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV 2001 2002 2003 Industrial sector Construction Transport Output of goods and services by basic sectors Fig. 9. Change in growth rates by the branch of the economy in the 2001–2004 period (% of the corresponding period figure of the previous year) Physical Production Sector In the physical production sector, a ratio between volumes of output in industry and building industry had a significant effect on changes in the structure of production. Sus tained growth in incomes of the economy gave an additional impetus to growth in demand in building works. In the 2000–2004 period, annual average growth rates of building works amounted to 10.7%, while those of output of building materials industry, to 6.6%. In the past few years, dynamics of building pointed to strong dependence of the level of business activities in building industry and economic income on foreign economic activities. In 2002, economic income went down due to a drop in prices in international markets; in the same period growth in output of building industry was the lowest during recovery growth and amounted to 2.7%. In the 2003–2004 period, growing economic income gave an additional impetus to growth in building industry. In the past two years, annual average rates of build ing works amounted to 12.2%. Growth in investment contributed to changes in the struc ture of recovery growth in the economy.
In conditions of economic recovery, Russian made equipment was in high demand as a result of upgrading and modernization of production facilities and introduction of competitive capacities.
With annual average growth rates of the investment sector and consumer’s sector being at the level of 9.4% and 7.1%, respectively, in the 2000–2004 period, the above in RUSSIAN ECONOMY in trends and outlooks dex in the primary sector (which is oriented primarily at foreign markets) amounted to 6.5%. Though in the period under review there were significant fluctuations in correlation between growth rates of industries, a gradual shift from growth (based on natural resources potential) to formation of the system of investment development was observed (Fig.10).
20,18,16,14,12,10,8,6,4,2,0,1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 Mineral complex Investment complex Consumer complex Industrial sector Fig. 10. Growth rates of production by the sector in the 1999–2004 period.
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