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Institute for the Economy in Transition RUSSIAN ECONOMY IN 2004 TRENDS AND OUTLOOKS (ISSUE 26) Moscow March 2005 UDC 33(470+571)"2004" BBC 65.9(2) R95 Agency CIP RSL Institute for the Economy in Transition (founded in 1992) Director: Yegor Gaidar Editorial Board: Y. Gaidar (editor in chief) S. Sinelnikov Mourylev N. Glavatskaya RUSSIAN ECONOMY IN 2004 TRENDS AND OUTLOOKS (Issue 26) M.: IET. 461 p.

ISBN 5 93255 160 7 The present monograph comprises a detailed review of major trends in the Russian econ omy in 2003. It consists of four major sections highlighting on single aspects of develop ment of Russias economy: social and political background; monetary and credit and budgetary spheres; the real sector; institutional and macroeconomic challenges. The work is based on a great mass of statistical data that allowed original computations and numer ous illustrations in the form of figures and charts.

The publication of the present paper was sponsored with the grant from the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) UDC 33(470+571)"2004" BBC 65.9(2) R95 ISBN 5 93255 160 7 Institute for the Economy in Transition, 2005 Authors:

section 1.1 S. Zhavoronkov, V. Novikov;

section 2.1.1 2.1.5, 2.1.7 S. Drobyshevsky;

section 2.1.6 P. Trunin;

section 2.2, 2.5 S. Ponomarenko;

section 2.3 I. Trunin, A. Katamadze, V. Nazarov;

section 2.4.1, 2.4.3 D. Polevoy;

section 2.4.2 A. Shadrin;

section 3.1.1 O. Izryadnova;

section 3.1.2 O. Izryadnova, Yu. Bobylev;

section 3.2 S. Tsukhlo;

section 3.3 O. Izryadnova, E. Ilyukhina;

section 3.4 N. Karlova, T. Tikhonova, E. Serova, I. Khramova, O. Shick;

section 3.5 I. Dezhina;

section 3.6 I. Rozhdestvenskaya, S. Shishkin;

section 3.7 N. Volovik, S. Prikhodko;

section 3.8 V. Zatsepin, A. Lebedeva, V. Tsymbal;

section 4.1 A. Radygin, G. Malginov, N. Shmeleva;

section 4.2 I. Mezheraups, A. Radygin;

section 4.3 A. Radygin, Yu. Simachev;

section 4.4 A. Abramov;

section 4.5 E. Marushkina, L. Mihaylov, L. Sycheva, O. Tochilina;

section 4.6 G. Malginov, G. Sternik (Analitycal Center Miel Nedvizhimost, The Russian Realtor Guilde) section 4.7 I. Starodubrovskaya;

section 4.8 T. Malinina;

annex 1 I. Mezheraups, A. Radygin Table of Contents Section 1.The Socio Political Background............................................... 1.1. The 2004 Economic and Political Outcomes...................................... 1.1.1. The 2004 Main Economic Outcomes.......................................... 1.1.2. Key Challenges of the Current Stage of Reforms....................... 1.1.3. Economic Growth: Discussions and Problems.......................... 1.1.4. The 2004 Main Domestic Political Outcomes............................ 1.1.5. The 2004 Main Foreign Policy Outcomes.................................. 1.1.6. Short and Longer Run Challenges and Risks........................... Section 2. Monetary and budgetary spheres.......................................... 2.1. Monetary Policy............................................................................ 2.1.1. Inflation Development............................................................. 2.1.2. Money Supply in the Economy................................................ 2.1.3. Money Demand..................................................................... 2.1.4. RUR Exchange Rate Movement............................................... 2.1.5. Banking Crisis in 2004......................................................... 2.1.6. The state of the balance of payments....................................... 2.1.7. Key Actions of the RF Central Bank in the Field of Monetary Policy.......................................................... 2.2. State Budget................................................................................ 2.2.1. General Description of RF Budgetary System in 2004............................................................................... 2.2.2. Analysis of Basic Tax Revenues............................................... 2.2.3. Budget Expenditures.............................................................. 2.2.4. Main Events in the Budget System and Changes in Tax Law.................................................................. 2.2.5. Federal Budget for the year of 2005......................................... 2.3. Interbudgetary relations and subnational finances........................... 2.3.1. Relations between budgets of different levels: basic trends of development.................................................. 2.3.2. The problem of soft budgetary constraints on Russian regional authorities.........................................................

2.3.3. Distribution of grants for equalization of budgetary security of RF subjects: new methods............................ 2.3.4. Social policy: changes in the division of respective powers among the federal, regional, and local authorities. Monetization of social benefits............................................................................. 2.3.5. Switching to the new procedures governing the election of the heads of executive authorities of RF subjects................................................................................. 2.3.6. Amendments to the budgetary and tax legislation affecting the state of interbudgetary relations............................................................... 2.3.7. The law on the federal budget for year 2005 and interbudgetary relations....................................... 2.4. Russian Financial markets........................................................... 2.4.1. The Market for Public Debt.................................................... 2.4.2. The market for subfederal and municipal debt......................... 2.4.3. Stock Market....................................................................... 2.5. Scenario Based Macroeconomic Forecast for 2005...................... Section 3. The real sector..................................................................... 3.1. Macrostructure of Production...................................................... 3.1.1. The GDP: Trends and Factors behind Change in Ultimate Demand........................................................... 3.1.2. Dynamic and Structure of Production of the GDP.................... 3.2. The IET Business Surveys............................................................ 3.2.1.The Dynamics of Demand or Industrial Produce....................... 3.2.2. Constraints to the industrial growth in 2004............................ 3.2.3. Impediments to rise in output formed by staff problems.......................................................................... 3.2.4. Capacity related constraints to rising output........................... 3.3. Investments in the Real Sector of the Economy.............................. 3.4. Russian agrifood sector: basic trends in 2004................................ 3.4.1. Exhaustion of growth factors and dichotomy forming in the sector.................................................................................. 3.4.2. Basic shifts in domestic support to agriculture........................ 3.4.3. Basic trends in agrifood foreign trade..................................... 3.4.4. Food markets...................................................................... 3.5. Research and Development Sector............................................... 3.5.1. Administrative Reform in Science........................................... 3.5.2. Attempting to Reorganize Scientific Institutions....................... 3.5.3. Perspective Forms of Integration of Science and Education.............................................................................. 3.5.4. Optimizing Budget Financing of Research and Development.......................................................................... 3.5.5. Public Scientific Funds and Private Charity............................. 3.5.6. Developing a Program on Foreign Funds and International Organizations...................................................... 3.5.7. HR Related Problems in Science........................................... 3.5.8. Expanding Business Participation in Financing Research and Development........................................................... 3.5.9. Private and Public Partnerships............................................. 3.5.10. Shaping Infrastructure of Innovation Activity......................... 3.5.11. Considering Mechanisms of Indirect Regulation in Science and Technology............................................................ 3.6. Sube sectors of the Socio Cultural Sphere................................... 3.6.1. Health Care......................................................................... 3.6.2. Education........................................................................... 3.6.3. The Start of Restructuring the Budgetary Institutions Network....................................................................... 3.7. Foreign Economic Activity............................................................ 3.7.1. Main Trends in Russias Foreign Trade................................... 3.7.2. Establishing a Single Economic Zone for Russia, Ukraine, Byelorussia and Kazakhstan............................. 3.7.3. Regulating Foreign Trade..................................................... 3.8. Military Security of Russia under Present Conditions: Economic Problems......................................................... 3.8.1. Military policies and military economic activities in the Russian Federation.................................................

3.8.2. Military expenditures of the federal budget............................. 3.8.3. Problems of further modernization of Russias military organization..................................................... Section 4. Institutional and Macroeconomic Challenges...................... 4.1.Policies in the sphere of property relations..................................... 4.1.1. Privatization and federal property administration:

some results of the year of 2004..................................................... 4.1.2. Changes in the normative legal basis and federal property management.................................................. 4.2. Ownership Rights Protection and Collapse of YUKOS...................... 4.2.1. Selling YUGANSKNEFTEGAZ................................................. 4.2.2. Economic Rent, Licensing and Fiscal Policy............................ 4.2.3. International Expansion Boundaries....................................... 4.2.4. Revising Privatization Results................................................ Appendix. Selling JSC YUGANSKNEFTEGAZ: legislative aspects............ 4.3. The third law on insolvency: the first results and prospects of improvement................................................. 4.3.1. Legislation on bankruptcy in 1990s through 2000s:

specifics of formation.................................................................... 4.3.2. Practical implementation of the third law on bankruptcy (2003 and 2004)...................................................... 4.3.3. Perspectives of modification of the institution of bankruptcy........................................................ 4.4. Problems of competitiveness of the Russian stock market............... 4.4.1. Russian issuers stock market............................................... 4.4.2. Problems of development of ruble bond market...................... 4.4.3. New niches for the Russian stock market................................ 4.5. Functioning of the pension systems saving component.................. 4.6. Realty market in the Moscow Region:

some results and forecast.................................................................. 4.7. Issues of Practical Implementation of the Local Self Governance Reform.................................................. 4.7.1. Normative and Legal Regulation of Reforms........................... 4.7.2. Determining the Boundaries and Status of Municipal Formations: Practice and Problems............................. 4.7.3. Other Aspects of Municipal Reform Preparation...................... 4.8. Reform of the accounting system in Russia.................................... 4.8.1. The Concept of Development of Accounting and Reporting in the Russian Federation in a Medium Term Outlook............................................................. 4.8.2. Draft federal law On Consolidated Financial Statements.................................................................... 4.8.3. Banking sector.................................................................... Section 1.The Socio Political Background 1.1. The 2004 Economic and Political Outcomes Where does the specificity of 2004 lie In the economic area, it displayed the increas ingly greater discrepancies: namely, the one between Russias growing sovereign rating and the worsening investment climate; between record breaking oil process and the slow down of GDP growth rates; between the governments multi vector economy liberalization program and the implemented public sector expansion and private sector etatization pol icy.

In the domestic political area, the main conflict became the one between the growing concentration of power in the hands of the President and the progressing degradation of government institutions.

The most significant developments in the foreign policy area were associated with the former USSR territory: namely, the accession of the Baltic states to EU; Russias fail ures to contribute to election campaigns in Ukraine and Abkhazia, as well as the failure to back up the former leader of Adzharia. Notwithstanding the above and the rise in anti Western rhetoric (especially in the wake of the Beslan massacre, with respect to the Ukra nian elections, among others), the country kept its course towards cooperation in the for eign relations area (vigorous negotiations on WTO, signing the Kyoto Protocol, and Rus sias eagerness to be a reliable partner to the US in the anti terrorist coalition.

1.1.1. The 2004 Main Economic Outcomes At a brief glance of statistical data, Russias performance in 2004 was quite success ful. The countrys output was growing, while inflation was down and the quality of macro economic policy was proved by several international rating agencies that raised the coun trys sovereign rating.

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