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concerns this sector of banking services, continued to decline and made 69.8 % as compared with 73.% in the beginning of the year (without taking into account the funds related to card accounts). The process of decline in the Sberbank share was relatively even (see Fig. 2), i.e. the reduction of rates related to Ruble and forex denominated deposits carried out by Sberbank in August did not significantly affected depositors behavior. Outside Sberbank, about 8 % of household deposits are made with Alfa Bank, while Bank of Moscow, which practically doubled the amount of attracted household deposits over the three quarters of 2002, concentrates 5.6 % of market.

% -1- Household deposits 2 -Assets Estimated on the basis of data provided by STIiK.

Fig. 1. The rate of growth in household assets and deposits in comparable prices without Sberbank (quarter on quarter change, in %)) % Estimated on the basis of data provided by STIiK.

Fig. 2. The share of Sberbank in the total amount of household deposits in Household deposits play a greater role in balance sheets of regional banks (see Table 1): on the average, the share of household deposits in the liabilities of these banks was two times higher than in Moscow-based banks and almost 90 % of regional banks attract household deposits (in the capital the respective indicator makes only 83 %). At the same time, due to the high concentration of banks in Moscow their share in the total amount of household deposits made 62.5 % by late September of 2002.

03.06.09.12.03.06.09.12,03.06.09.12.03.06.09.11.Table The share of household deposits in bank liabilities (in %)* Banks of Moscow and Moscow Regional banks Operating banks (without Oblast Sberbank) 01.00 01.01 01.02 10.02 01.00 01.01 01.02 10.02 01.00 01.01 01.02 10.Household deposits 4.7 4.7 7.0 9.2 9.6 9.2 13.6 18.0 5.8 5.8 8.6 11. Including forex deposits 3.7 3.7 5.4 7.2 4.2 3.8 5.6 7.4 3.8 3.7 5.5 7. Including Ruble deposits 1.0 1.0 1.6 2.0 5.4 5.4 8.0 10.6 2.0 2.1 3.1 4.Memorandum:

Number of banks attracting household deposits 533 535 546 541 627 617 639 624 1160 1153 1175 Average amount of assets, Rb. bln.

1412 2150 2852 3387 348 601 781 905 837 1321 1744 * values at the beginning of a month for banks attracting household deposits Estimated on the basis of data provided by STIiK.

In the first nine months of 200w, the Moscow-based banks have incresed the total amount of attracted household deposits by 55 % - from Rub. 110 billion to Rub. 169 billion. The amount of household deposits in regional banks has increased by 52 % (from Rub. 69 billion to Rub. 102 billion).

However, Moscow and regional banks significantly differ in terms of currency of household deposits. While the share of forex denominated household deposits in Moscow banks stable dominates making about 80 %, in regional banks this ratio is different: forex denominated household deposits make slightly over 40 % of the total amount of household deposits. At the same time, as the data presented in Table 2 demonstrate, after a decline registered in 2000 and 2001, in 2002 there was observed a certain increase in the share of forex denominated deposits in comparison with Ruble denominated deposits (the sample does not include Sberbank). As concerns Sberbank, there the attraction of household forex denominated deposits continued to outpace the increase in Ruble denominated deposits.

Table 2.

The currency structure of household deposits Household Operating Sberbank Operatin Sberbank Operatin Sberbank Operatin Sberbank deposits banks g banks g banks g banks without without without without Sberbank Sberbank Sberbank Sberbank 01.01.00 01.01.01 01.01.02 01.10.Forex 66.1 21.1 63.4 23.6 63.7 25.5 64.2 27.Ruble 33.9 78.9 36.6 76.4 36.3 74.5 35.8 72.Estimated on the basis of data provided by STIiK.

As concerns the time structure of household deposits in 2002, it has significantly changed in comparison with the situation in the beginning of the year (see Table 3). In 2002, there continued an increase in the share of fixed deposits, while the share of demand deposits declined respectively. The share of demand deposits decreased from 23 % to 19 % across all banks over the first 3 quarters (without Sberbank). As the data presented in Table 3 demonstrate, a high share of demand deposits in this sample is determined by the extremely high share of Ruble denominated demand household deposits in commercial banks.

Table Time structure of household deposits of residents* Household deposits Operating banks with Sberbank Operating banks without Sberbank 01.01.00 01.01.01 01.01.02 01.10.02 01.01.00 01.01.01 01.01.02 01.10.Demand deposits** 28.8 29.5 23.2 18.8 34.1 37.1 33.2 29.Including card accounts 2.6 2.2 1.6 1.0 8.7 9.6 5.1 3.Up to 3 months 8.9 6.3 4.8 3.7 14.8 9.8 7.6 5.3 to 6 months 49.2 41.4 32.8 29.6 19.9 21.7 21.6 18. 6 to 12 months 8.1 11.4 14.7 17.6 17.0 21.6 27.3 32.Year and more 5.0 11.4 24.5 32.8 14.2 9.8 10.3 14.Total 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 Forex deposits Demand deposits 28.0 25.4 22.1 18.8 34.7 34.5 28.2 23.Including card accounts 4.9 3.6 1.4 1.0 8.6 8.4 2.8 1.Up to 3 months 7.9 4.6 4.0 2.7 15.8 9.7 8.0 5.3 to 6 months 40.3 41.5 35.0 26.8 15.5 18.4 20.0 16.6 to 12 months 16.0 20.0 24.4 27.8 19.1 26.5 32.6 38.Year and more 7.8 8.5 14.5 23.8 14.9 10.9 11.2 16.Total 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 Ruble deposits Demand deposits 29.1 31.4 23.7 18.8 33.1 41.2 41.1 38. Including card accounts 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.1 8.8 11.5 8.8 5.Up to 3 months 9.4 7.2 5.3 4.3 13.0 9.9 7.1 5.3 to 6 months 53.0 41.4 31.6 27.0 28.2 27.1 24.1 21. 6 to 12 months 4.7 7.3 9.4 11.4 12.8 13.8 19.0 22.Year and more 3.8 12.7 30.0 38.5 12.9 8.0 8.8 11.Total 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 * the share of household deposits belonging to non-residents in the total amount of household deposits is on the average below 1 %.

** balances of card accounts are included in demand deposits.

Estimated on the basis of data provided by STIiK.

As in the preceding year, time deposits with Sberbank are made for longer terms. Deposits termed for more than a year dominate in Sberbank. The structure of Sberbank deposits affects the time structure of deposits in aggregate balances of banks: the share of the amount of funds deposited for this term is the largest (32.8 %). However, without Sberbank, the most popular Ruble and forex denominated deposits are those termed from 6 to 12 months. At the same time, this term also dominates the forex denominated deposits with Sberbank (see Table 3).

L. V. Mikhailov, L. I. Sycheva, E. V. Timofeev An Analysis of Military and Related Expenditures of the Federal Budget for It seems feasible to begin the traditional analysis of planned military expenditures with an analysis of their validity. Moreover, as it will be shown below, these expenditures for 2003 became more transparent. Thus, it is natural to find out if the substantiation of the expenditures is also open.

As concerns the Prognosis of social and economic development of the Russian Federation in 2003, which was submitted to the State Duma as a part of the package of documents supplemented to the federal budget for 2003 (FB-03), it contains Section 8 entitled Economic Aspects of National Security. However, the subject matter of the section does not answer its title. The section, contrary to the Concept of the RF National Security, focuses on threats and risks related to national security only in the sphere of civilian economy. The section fails to take into account economic aspects of neutralization of other threats and risks.

As a result, the feasibility of planned expenditures included in some most important sections of FB03 is absolutely unsubstantiated. This lack of substantiation of military expenditures in the federal budget can not be explained by references to secrecy requirements, since the national security concept This article was prepared with assistance of RGNF (Project No. 02-02-00062) of the Russian Federation clearly defines all threats to the Russias national interests without classifying them as military and non-military threats, while the necessity of economic substantiation of measures aimed at parrying the totality of all threats and minimization of expenditures were listed as priority requirements.

The present approach to the prognostication of economy and substantiation of the budget without mentioning military needs of the state, which have not changed since the Soviet times, hampers the possibility to evaluate the rationality of the levels of federal budget expenditures earmarked for the ensuring of military security.

No elaboration of the Prognosis of social and economic development of the Russian Federation in 2003 was carried out in the process of preparation and approval of FB-03.

The structure of military expenditures is determined by the budget classifier, which has routinely underwent non-motivated changes. Although the military organization of the state was defined by the Military Doctrine and a number of other documents, these definitions were not used in the budget.

There are no clear criteria of military expenditures.

Yet another substantial drawback resulting from the annual changes in the structure of expenditures is related to the impossibility to precisely evaluate their dynamics. Therefore, the assesments of the dynamics of expenditures shown below are approximate. Since no motives behind the changes in the classifier are available, the impression is that certain forces in the state are not interested in a precise analysis of budgetary dynamics.

The bulk of military expenditures in the RF concentrates in sections National Defense and Law Enforcement and State Security. Military Reform is a composite section as concerns its functional subject matter. On the one hand, it reflects expenditures earmarked for the continuing reduction of the size of the RF military organization, on the other hand, this section includes more and more expenditures aimed at the improvement and strengthening of the military organization.

As concerns section National Defense, for the results of the analysis of the federal budget for year 2003 in comparison with respective expenditures of the federal budget for year 2002 (FB-02), see Table 1. Sources of information include: Supplement No. 6 to FB-03 and Supplement No. 5 to FB-02.

Expenditures (in Rub. millions) presented in FB-03 are shown in normal fonts, while their values as adjusted for estimated inflation (11 %) in comparison with price levels registered in 2002 are presented in italics. The difference between levels of expenditures was calculated in prices of 2002.

The share of expenditures was evaluated in relation to the aggregate expenditures (RFB) in FB-03 and estimated size of GDP in FB-03.

Table Amount in Difference between Share / change in share in FB-03 (Rub. expenditures of FB- comparison with FB-02 in % No. Sections and subsections Code mil.) 03 and FB-02 (Rub.

Same in mil.) and increment In relation to In relation prices of 2002 in expenditures (in RFB to GDP %) 1 National defense 0400 344525 26105 14,7 / 2,64 / 310329 + 8,4% + 0,1 0,1.1 Development and maintenance of 0401 325564 29313 13,9 / 2,5 / RF Armed Forces 293301 + 10,0 + 0,4 + 0,1.2 Military program of the RF 0402 13012 - 2271 0,6 / 0,1 / Ministry for Nuclear Energy 11726 - 16,2 - 0,1 0,1.3 Ensuring mobilization and extra- 0403 4161 498 0,2 / 0,0 / military preparedness 3749 + 15,2 0,0 0,1.4 Preparation of and participation in 0404 1436 - 1434 0,1 / 0,0 / ensuring collective security and 1294 - 52,6 0,0 0,peace making activities 1.5 Ensuring the operation of national 0407 302,5 - 30 0,0 / 0,0 / defense related industries 272,5 - 0,1 0,0 0,As the data in Table 1 demonstrates, the expenditures included in the section National Defense of FB-03 have significantly increased in comparison with the respective figures observed in FB-02 (by 8.4 % in comparable prices). Accordingly, the shares of these expenditures in the aggregate expenditures of the Russian state have also increased, while the shares of these expenditures in terms of shares of GDP have remained practically without change and are still far below the level targeted yet in 1998 -- at 3.5 % of GDP.

The expenditures included in section Law Enforcement and State Security were increased to a much greater extent (by 26.8 % in relative values, including a 35.5 % increase of expenditures for state security, or, in comparable prices adjusted for inflation by 24.1 % and 32 % respectively). At the same time, the share expenditures for item 05 has increased from 1.7 % to 1.9 % of GDP. No substantiation of this increase was presented.

As concerns expenditures included in this section, it shall be noted that expenditures for so called other troops being a part of the RF military organization and financed from this section have also increased. For the analysis of these expenditures, see the upper part of Table 2.

The RF government also paid certain attention to other components of the RF military organization.

The major outlays are presented in the lower part of Table 2.

The sources of information used for the analysis of these expenditures shown in respective rows of Tables 2 and 3 are as follows:

1* Supplement 6 to FB-03 and Supplement 5 to FB-02, 2* Supplement 7 to FB-03 and Supplement 6 to FB-02, 3* Article 94 of FB-03 and Article 92 of FB-02.

Table Code Amount in Difference between Share / change in share in FB-03 (Rub. expenditures of FB- comparison with FB-02 in % No. Sections and subsections So- mil.) 03 and FB-02 (Rub.

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