On the whole, the Rouble - Dollar exchange rate changed in a rather narrow range of RUR/ US$ 31.835 to 31.80. In the period from 27 December till 24 January the total exchange rate growth was 1.7 kopecks (0.054 percent), or from RUR/ US$ 31.7844 on 27 December 2002 to RUR/ US$ 31. on 27 January 2003. According to preliminary estimates, the trade volume in the SELT will exceed RUR 91 billion.
FIGURE 8. THE DYNAMICS OF THE OFFICIAL ROUBLE - DOLLAR AND ROUBLE - EURO EXCHANGE RATE Динамика официального обменного курса рубля к доллару США и евро 35,34,33,32,31,30,Официальный курс рубля к доллару США 29,28,0 Официальный курс рубля к евро 27,26,FIGURE 9. DYNAMICS OF EURO/DOLLAR EXCHANGE RATE ON INTERNATIONAL FOREX MARKETS Динамика курса евро к доллару на мировых валютных рынках 1,1,1,0,0,0,A pronounced Euro appreciation trend in relation to the Dollar was observed in the global market.
Better economic situation in EU countries (as compared to the US) and the constant menace of a military conflict in Iraq encourage investors to buy the Euro against the Dollar. In the period from December till 24 January the Dollar became 2.7 cents (2.58 percent) cheaper; at the end of the period its exchange rate decreased to US$/ Euro 1.0753.
рублей 01.02.03.03.02.04.02.05.01.06.01.07.31.07.30.08.29.09.29.10.18.104.22.168.долларов/евро 01.02.03.03.02.04.02.05.01.06.01.07.31.07.30.08.29.09.29.10.22.214.171.124.The Rouble - Euro exchange rate followed the world's leading trade floors. In January the highest value was RUR / Euro 34.31 (a historic maximum) on 24 January, and the lowest value was RUR / Euro 33.2024 on 8 January 2003. The Rouble - Euro exchange rate changed RUR 1.2, or 3.64 percent, in the course of the month, while the trade volume was RUR 2.9 billion.
Table Financial Market Indicators Month Septemb October Novembe Decembe January er r r Monthly inflation rate 0,4% 1,1% 1.5% 1.6% 2.0% Inflation rate annualized on the basis of this month's trend 4.91% 14.03% 20.98% 19.56% 26.8% CB RF refinancing rate 21% 21% 21% 21% 21% Annualized yield to maturity on OFZ issues 15.25% 14.98% 14.02% 13.41% 12.2% Volume of trading in the secondary GKO-OFZ market for the month (RUR 15.97 18.73 11.15 15.11 13.billion) Yield to maturity on Minfin bonds at the end of the month (% p.a.) 4th tranche 5.46% 4.86% 4.83 % 4.55% 3.7% 5th tranche 10.13% 8.46% 7.83% 7.66% 7.1% 6th tranche 8.84% 7.04% 6.78% 6.66% 5.8% 7th tranche 10.31% 9.13% 8.50% 8.08% 7.3% 8th tranche 9.24% 7.68% 6.81% 6.61% 5.9% INSTAR-MIACR rate (% p.a.) on interbank loans at the end of the month:
Overnight 17.79% 14.89% 4.68% 10.11% 5% Official RUR / US$ exchange rate at the end of the month 31,6358 31.7408 31.8424 31.7844 31.Official RUR / Euro exchange rate at the end of the month 30,9082 31.1790 31.6736 33.1098 34.Average annualized growth in RUR / US$ exchange rate 0.22% 0.33% 0.32% -0.18% 0.12% Average annualized growth in RUR / Euro exchange rate -0.37% 0.88% 1.59% 4.53% 4.03% Volume of trading at the stock market in the RTS for the month (US$ 263.143 324.38 260.20 219.92 million) Value of RTS Index at the end of the month 430.06 358.65 361.15 359.07 Change in value of RTS Index during the month (%) 0.90% 5.47% 0.70% -0.58% -3.1% * Estimates S. Drobyshevski, D. Skripkin Investment in fixed assets The macroeconomic situation in 2002 was determined by persistent trends towards the expansion of production across all sectors of economy and industries. The growth in investment demand was a specific feature of the development of Russia’s economy over the last three years. In 2000 and 2001, there was observed a stable trend towards outpacing rates of growth in investment in fixed assets in comparison with GDP dynamics. The development of this trend was facilitated by expansion of domestic demand at the expense of increase in own and borrowed funds designated for investment purposes, as well as deceleration of growth in producers’ prices in industry and construction. In 2002, the situation changes as consumer demand begins to outpace investment demand. As a result, the outpacing rates of increase in GDP in comparison with the dynamics of investment in fixed assets and output of base sectors of the economy were restored again. The amount of investment in fixed assets from all sources of financing made Rub. 1660.5 billion in 2002, what is by 2.6 % above the level registered in 2001, while GDP grew by 4.2 %. The share of investment in fixed assets in GDP made 15.2 % as compared with 17.7 % registered in 2001, and 16.8 % in 2000.
Decelerating rates of investment demand determined the reserved dynamics of growth in mechanical engineering and construction materials industry. As compared with figures registered in 2001, the gross output of mechanical engineering increased by 2.0 %, while production of the construction materials grew by 3.0 %. It shall be noted that in 2002 the dynamics of investment outpaced the rate of growth in mechanical engineering, what limited the possibilities for transformational shifts in reproduction of fixed assets. Decelerating rates of production in mechanical engineering negatively affect the dynamics of economic growth. The state of industries belonging to the investment mechanical engineering complex is a technological factor limiting the potential for resolving urgent problems of reconstruction and modernization of production on the new technical basis – the obsolete structure of mechanical engineering reproduces obsolete proportions of reproduction. In 2002, the share of expenditures for machinery and equipment in the total amount of investment declined by 1 p.p. in comparison with the figures registered in the preceding year;
however, they remain at the level observed in 1999 through 2000.
TABLE Structure of investment in fixed assets by type, in % of the total 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002*) Investment in fixed assets, total 100 100 100 100 Including:
Residential housing 16,3 14,3 10,7 9,8 12,Buildings (except residential housing) and 45,1 41,4 43,6 43,6 43,constructions Machinery, equipment 29,9 36,4 35,7 38,0 Other 8,7 7,9 10,0 8,6 7,*) preliminary data of the Ministry for Economic Development Source: RF Goskomstat In the last years, investment activity was determined not only by amounts of utilized funds, but also rationalization of resource flows used for the reproduction of fixed assets. As business situation changed, enterprises oriented towards the expansion of their positions on the domestic market both at the expense of increased competitiveness of their products in comparison with similar imported goods, and at the expense of intensive development of import substitution production. Since financial resources were severely limited, investment decisions were determined by the tasks related to the improvement of the quality of output and its conformity with modern standards, expansion of assortment, as well as technological aspects of reduction of costs. At the same time, in 2001 through 2002 the fact that the structure of mechanical engineering does not correspond to changes in demand for machinery and equipment became apparent. Expenditures for purchase of imported equipment increased in the structure of investment in equipment. In the first three quarters of 2002, investment in imported equipment made 24.6 % of the total amount of investment in machinery, equipment, tools, and transport vehicles, and made 8.8 % of the total investment in fixed assets.
Figure 1. Changes in GDP dynamics, investment in fixed assets and production of mechanical engineering in 1991 through 2002, in % of the preceding year 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 -----ВВП Инвестиции в основной капитал Машиностроение GDP Investment in fixed assets Mechanical engineering In 2002, the intensity of investment inflow in the real sector of the economy diminished at the background of lacking significant changes in the sectoral structure. Declining investments in industry and transport fully determined the distribution of investments across sectors of the economy. In case the fact that transport, communications, and fuel complex account for almost of the total amount of investment in the national economy is taken into account, it becomes apparent that exactly financial and economic standing of these sectors had the most considerable impact on the dynamics and structure of investment demand.
Fuel industry retained its dominating position in the structure of investment. It accounts for 49.9 % of the total amount of investment in industry, at the same time investments in oil extracting industry make almost 1/3 of this amount. Over the last two years, the intensive expansion of demand of the oil and natural gas complex for investment goods was a powerful factor behind the increasing business activity in mechanical engineering and industry of construction materials. In 2002, the profitability of production in fuel industry decreased almost twofold in comparison with the figures registered in the preceding year under the cumulative impact of external and internal factors, what negatively affected the level of investment demand. Taking into account the persistence of traditionally high concentration of profits in the export oriented industries of the oil and raw materials sectors and the lack of mechanisms of inter-sectoral flow of capitals, it may be hardly expected that the rate of investment would increase and radical changes would occur in the nature of the reproduction of fixed capital.
O. Izryadnova The Real Sector: Factors and Trends According to the preliminary estimates of the Ministry for Economic Development, in 2002 GDP made Rub. 10950 billion and increased by 4.2 % in comparison with the figures registered in 2001.
The specific feature of 2002 was the shift in proportions of economic sectors determined by outpacing rates of growth in services in comparison with dynamics of production of goods. According to the preliminary data for 2002, the increase in the output of sectors rendering services made 5.1 % as compared with 3.7 % registered in the preceding year. The dynamics of market services were dominated by an intensive increase in amounts of communication services and the turnover of retail trade. In 2002, the index of the retail trade turnover made 131.6 % in comparison with the respective figures registered in 1999, GDP increased by 19.0 %, while the amount of communication services practically doubled over this period.
Figure 1. Dynamics of GDP production across economic sectors in 1999 through 2002, in % of the figures registered in the respective quarter of the preceding year -ВВП Производство товаров Производство услуг 1st quart. 2nd quart. 3rd quart. 4th quart. 1st quart. 2nd quart. 3rd quart. 4th quart. 1st quart. 2nd quart. 3rd quart. 4th quart. 1st quart.
2nd quart. 3rd quart. 4th quart.
GDP Production of goods Production of services As concerns sectors producing goods, in 2002 they demonstrated the opposite trend towards deceleration of growth rates. In 2002, the production of goods increased by 3.1 % as compared with 6.5 % registered in the preceding year. In contradistinction to the results of 2001, when the growth in output of goods could be explained primarily by the dynamics of production in agriculture and construction, in 2002 industry accounted for the bulk of increase in output. The growth of amount of 2кв 3кв 4кв 2кв 3кв 4кв 2кв 3кв 4кв 2кв 3кв 4кв 1кв/1кв\1кв\1кв\works in construction made 2.8 % as compared with 8.7 % observed in 2001. As concerns agriculture, since the 3rd quarter of 2002 there was registered a decline in added value, although on the whole this indicator remains positive. In 2002, the index of growth in agricultural produce made 101.7 % in comparison with 107.5 % registered in the preceding year. Added value in industry has grown at outpacing rates in comparison with respective indicators of construction and agriculture since the 2nd quarter of 2002, what has compensated the deceleration of the rates of output of goods across other industries.
Figure 2. Dynamics of production of added value across industries manufacturing goods in 1999 through 2002, in % of the figures registered in the respective quarter of the preceding year --Промышленность Строительство Сельское хозяйство Производство товаров 1st quart. 2nd quart. 3rd quart. 4th quart. 1st quart. 2nd quart. 3rd quart. 4th quart. 1st quart. 2nd quart. 3rd quart. 4th quart. 1st quart.
2nd quart. 3rd quart. 4th quart.
Industry Construction Agriculture Manufacturing of goods The year’s results were as follows: industrial output increased by 3.7 %, what is by 1.2 p.p. below the level registered in the preceding year. The inertia of industrial growth over the last two years may be explained both by depletion of the residual potential of import substitution and devaluation, and extremely slow process of restructuring of domestic businesses aimed at the formation of new competitive markets of domestic products. Orientation towards traditional positions on world markets of raw materials and fuel and the lack of prospective strategy of development of manufacturing sectors of the economy are determine the reserved policy of financial and credit institutions as concerns the financing of the real sector of the economy. While in 1999 through 2001, the dynamics of growth in industrial output was formed under the impact of outpacing rates of growth in manufacturing industries in comparison with extracting industries, in 2002 the situation reversed.
As the rates of growth in the investment complex decelerated from 106.2 % in 2001 to 102.1 % in 2002, the trend towards increasing role of the extracting sector was restored. The major contribution to the positive dynamics was made by the group of export-oriented industries, primarily, oil industry, non-ferrous metallurgy, chemistry, and forestry. As the external business situation gradually improved, the rates of growth in the fuel complex made 107.0 %, in non-ferrous metallurgy - 106.0 %, and in ferrous metallurgy - 103.0 % in 2002.
The outpacing rate of growth in export-oriented industries may be explained by favorable business factors observed on world raw materials markets, while the deceleration of growth rates in mechanical engineering to 102 % in comparison with 107.0 % in 2001 and the decline of output in light industry 2кв 3кв 4кв 2кв 3кв 4кв 2кв 3кв 4кв 2кв 3кв 4кв 1кв/1кв\1кв\1кв\by 3.4 % as compared to figures registered in the preceding year are related to purely internal problems.
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