940 49,48,47,46,45,44,43,42,41,40,39,38,37,660 36,Денежная база (млрд. руб.) Золотовалютные резервы (млрд. $) S. Drobyshevski Financial Markets The Market for Government Securities Summing up the results of 2002, we should note a quick growth of quotations for all Russian securities (See Figures 1 and 2). E.g., the yield to maturity of Minfin bonds decreased from 9 - 12.percent to 5 - 8.5 percent p.a., and the YTM of Eurobonds dropped to 4 - 9.5 percent p.a. Thus, the yield on RF bonds (without account of coupon payments) reached 37.1 percent on Eurobonds (the issue with maturity in 2030) and 40.1 percent on Minfin bonds (the 5th tranche that matures in and belongs to the obligations of the former USSR).
млрд. рублей млрд. долларов 8-14.4.3-9.6.1-7.7.6-12.5.9-15.9.2-8.12.11-17.2.11-17.3.25-31.3.22-28.4.20-26.5.17-23.6.15-21.7.12-18.8.23-29.9.7-13.10.4-10.11.25.2-184.108.40.206-220.127.116.11-1.9.14-20.01.21-27.10.18-24.11.16-22.12.13-19.01.28.01-3.02.31.12.01-18.104.22.168.02-5.01.FIGURE 1. YIELD TO MATURITY OF MINFIN BONDS IN OCTOBER 2002 - JANUARY 2003.
Доходность к погашению ОВВЗ в октябре 2002 - январе 2003 года 10,5% Транш 4 Транш 5 Транш 6 Транш 9,5% 8,5% 7,5% 6,5% 5,5% 4,5% 3,5% FIGURE 2. YIELD TO MATURITY OF RUSSIAN EUROBONDS MATURING IN 2003, 2007 AND 2008 IN OCTOBER 2002 - JANUARY 2003.
Доходности к погашению российских евробондов со сроками погашения в 2003, 2007 и 2028 гг. в октябре 2002 - январе 2003 года 10,5% 9,5% 8,5% 7,5% 6,5% 5,5% 4,5% 3,5% 2,5% 1,5% USD-2003 USD-2007 USD-At the internal debt market the past year was above all characterized by an unprecedented drop in yields accompanied by low trade volumes during the most part of the year (See Figure 3). The nominal annualized yield to maturity of GKO - OFZ bonds fell to 13.5 - 15 percent and the turnover at the secondary market sank in certain weeks below RUR 1 billion. Thus, trade volume in the beginning of 01.10.09.10.22.214.171.124.04.11.14.11.22.11.02.12.10.12.20.12.13.01.21.01.01.10.09.10.126.96.36.199.04.11.14.11.22.11.02.12.10.12.20.12.13.01.21.01.the year went down to the lowest values since 1999 when the market was just beginning to operate after the 1998 crisis.
FIGURE 3. DYNAMICS OF GKO - OFZ IN Динамика рынка ГКО-ОФЗ в 2002 году 7500 18% 17% 16% 15% 14% 13% 5000 12% 11% 10% 9% 8% 7% 2500 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0 0% Оборот вторичного рынка ГКО/ОФЗ Средневзвешенная доходность ГКО-ОФЗ (% в год) The Market for Corporate Securities The Stock Market The New Year did not bring any optimism to the Russian stock market. The menace of Iraq war, instability on the leading trade floors, danger of global economy stagnation as a result of high prices for energy carriers form the negative background that prevents an inflow of funds to the Russian markets. Even the extra-high oil prices failed to add optimism to investors: they had already included the future drop in quotations of the 'black gold' in the prices of Russian oil companies' shares. We would also like to point out a significant factor that is going to play a role of no small importance during the next 18 months in Russia: the forthcoming parliamentary and presidential elections. This can result in suspended adoption of some of the 'unpopular', albeit very important, laws relating, e.g., to reforms of natural monopolies.
On the whole, the RTS index decreased 6.4 percent during the month and was 226.08 points on January. The trade volume was low in the indicated period, amounting to slightly over US$ million (-10.9 percent as compared to previous month). Low investor activity may be explained, firstly, by the large number of holidays and, secondly, by the fact that investors, mainly foreign investors, are waiting for an outcome of the USA - Iraq conflict. Deputies of the Russian Duma have also contributed to the fall of Russian stock index by postponing one more time the consideration of the block of laws relating to reforms of electroenergetics. In the first half of January the RTS index remained in the 357 - 361 point range, reaching 361.49 points on 16 January. Then a sharp drop followed: 343.89 on 21 January (- 4.8 percent) and on to 336.08 points (- 7 percent). The maximum turnover was registered on 21 January (ca. US$ 21), the minimum turnover was observed on 4 January (US$ 2.03 million).
% в год 3-9.6.1-7.7.8-14.4.6-12.5.9-15.9.11-17.2.11-17.3.25-31.3.22-28.4.20-26.5.17-23.6.15-21.7.12-18.8.23-29.9.7-13.10.4-10.11.25.2-188.8.131.52-184.108.40.206-1.9.14-20.01.21-27.10.18-24.11.28.01-3.02.31.12.01-6.1.FIGURE Объем торгов ($) Индекс РТС In January practically all of Russian blue chips suffered a drop in quotations. The favorable situation in the global metal market and a purchase of a large block of shares of Krasoyarskenergo resulted in a growth of Norilsk Nickel shares (12.35 percent) and good financial indicators of Sberbank (1.48 percent). Shares of the following companies demonstrated the greatest drop in the period from 1 till 27 January: RAO UES: - 17 percent; Sibneft: - 15.2 percent; and Gazprom: - 13.percent. The scale of decrease in quotations of securities of Lukoil (- 8.09 percent), Tatneft (- 7.percent) and Surgutneftegaz (- 6.81 percent) was lower. In the outsider group, Yukos (- 5.34 percent), Rostelekom (- 4.88 percent) and Mosenergo (- 2.84 percent) fared better than the rest. A purchase of Slavneft shares by Sibneft resulted in a fall of the latter's quotations, and just another delay in reforms of natural monopolies lowered the quotations of Gazprom and RAO UES. The sale of Lukoil shares by British Petroleum resulted in excessive offer in the market and, consequently, in a drop in the prices fro Lukoil shares. It looks like the growth potential of the largest Russian companies will soon be exhausted, and one might suppose that in the short term and medium term outlook investor attention will shift to securities of 'second echelon' companies, in the first place, telecommunication and regional joint-stock energy companies The proportion of RAO UES shares in the total RTS trade volume in the period from 1 till January was 28.18 percent (27.47 percent in previous month). These are followed by ordinary Lukoil shares with 18.59 percent (18.29 percent). The turnover in the shares of MMC Norilsk Nickel tripled, reaching 12.47 percent (4.10 percent), in Surgutneftegas securities fell to 11.65 percent (13.percent), and in Yukos securities fell to 8.66 percent (14.56 percent). The total proportion of the five most liquid shares in the overall RTS January turnover slightly decreased to 79.55 percent (80.percent in December).
пунктов млн. долларов США 3 дек 3 янв 2 апр 1 фев 4 мар 1 июл 26 авг 23 сен 21 окт 18 дек 20 янв 29 апр 19 ноя 31 май 29 июл FIGURE 5. DYNAMICS OF QUOTATIONS OF RUSSIAN BLUE CHIPS FROM 31 DECEMBER TILL 27 JANUARY Динамика котировок российских голубых фишек с 31 декабря 2002 г. по 27 января 2002 г.
15% 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% -15% -20% Изменение цены (%) In the period from 1 till 27 January 2002, the volume of trade in Gazprom shares via RTS terminals amounted to US$ 33.03 million (ca. 45.9 million shares); a total of 5.64 thousand deals were been concluded with the gas concern's securities. In January 2003 the five most capitalized companies retained their positions: Yukos: US$ 19.8 billion, Gazprom: US$ 15.7 billion; Lukoil: US$ 12 billion;
Surgutneftegas: US$ 10.6 billion; and Sibneft: US$ 8.9 billion (all data according to RTS).
The Market for Term Contracts The aggregate trade volume in the market for term contracts from 1 till 27 January was RUR 7.billion (42.2 thousand deals, 1.69 million contracts); futures contracts accounted for RUR 6.98 billion (40.36 thousand deals, 1.65 million contracts) in this amount. The highest trade volume of RUR 685.million was observed on 21 January. On average, the daily volume was RUR 446 million, the number of deals: 2636.
In January the FORTS market grew to new historic highs: on 17 January a record trade volume in open positions was observed: 369.6 thousand contracts (futures contracts accounted for 316 thousand in that number); on 23 January the daily record in the amount of deals was achieved: 4,182 deals, with 4,030 deals with futures contracts and 152 deals with options. The new record in the total amount of deals increased 10.5 percent versus the previous record hit on 26 November 2002.
External Factors of the Russian Stock Market Dynamics Fears of the forthcoming US military action and unfavorable prospects of the technology sector affected the participants of the main US trade floors negatively. Statements by IBM, Microsoft and Intel about slow recovery of demand for computers and software resulted in falling demand in the market. Other factors, such as news of dropping industrial production in the US, unprecedented foreign trade deficit and a drop in the preliminary value of consumer confidence index down to 83.percent in January brought about a cut of the main stock market indices in the US: DJ (- 2.52 percent) and S&P (-2.09 percent), and in Europe: FTSE (- 8.54 percent), DAX (- 6.04 percent) and CAC (- 5.percent) in the course of the month.
The European Central Bank and the Bank of England left the key interest rates unchanged, at the level of 2.75 percent and 4 percent, correspondingly. It should be noted that the Bank of England left the interest rate at the lowest level in 39 years, and this index had remained unchanged for consecutive months.
) з ь о К С О Ф б а л ТЬ г Р Н рг фть е ке ЕЭС е РА КО к л те СП н и ЕФ ф м О тн Б Ю ой е сэ о бан рН н Ф К БН Та р о РА ( т ек Мо у Н м ЛУ ел СИ о рг Сбе р у ст п о С Р ГМК аз Г FIGURE 6.
200% Dow Jones Industrial Average Nasdaq Composite 180% Индекс РТС 160% 140% 120% 100% 80% 60% 40% There was no reaction in the market to OPEC's decision to increase oil export quotas by 1.5 million barrels a day starting from 1 February, which the cartel member countries made at the extraordinary meeting on 12 January. Tensions in the Middle East and the continuing strike in Venezuela that resulted in a significant decrease of crude oil reserves in the USA supported 'black gold' quotations. In January the crude oil price did not go down below US$ 30 per barrel, growing up to US$ 32.14 by the end of the month.
FIGURE 7. PRICE FOR BRENT CRUDE OIL, USA (NYMEX) Цена на сырую нефть Brent, США (NYMEX) 03.12.01 10.01.02 14.02.02 21.03.02 22.04.02 04.06.02 05.07.02 05.08.02 10.09.02 11.10.02 14.11.02 18.12.Corporate News OAO Sberbank долларов за баррель 12.
According to the company's officials, Sberbank's net RAS profits in 2002 were ca. RUR 30 billion, which by more than RUR 12 billion exceeds the 2001 results. Under IAS, this figure will exceed US$ 1 billion in 2002. The total amount of Sberbank branches grew 80 during the past year. The increase in deposits of individuals was 43 percent, with currency deposits growing faster than RUR deposits.
Individual lending grew 60 percent in 2002.
OAO Yukos Moody's Investors Service has for the first time assigned Yukos Ba1 senior implied and Ba2 foreign currency issuer ratings, with a stable outlook. It is important to point out that the company's senior rating exceeds the sovereign rating of the RF (currently Ba2). Taking into account the company's "extraordinary fundamental characteristics", Moody's has estimated Yukos better than the Russian Federation, while indicating the company's main problems: excessive concentration of share capital, dependence on world oil prices and unclear long-term development plans. As previously expected, the company declared an interim dividend payment of US$ 12.75 billion for 9 months of 2002. The dividend will be RUR 5.7 per one ordinary share.
OAO Lukoil Lukoil published a report on its production operations in 2002. According to the report, the oil company's investments were US$ 2.4 billion, three fourths of which were allocated to oil production.
78.2 million tons of oil were produced in the reporting period (the increase versus 2001 was percent), gas production was 5.1 billion cubic meters. Oil exports grew up to 34.3 million tons. The total volume of oil processing in the company grew to 41.5 million tons (9.2 percent) in 2002. The increase in the company's reserves amounted to 196 million tons of oil equivalent. In 2002 ten new deposits and 16 pools of hydrocarbons were discovered, mainly in the North Caspian Sea and TimanPechora oil-and-gas province.
Table Dynamics of Foreign Stock Indexes As of 24 January 2003 Value Change During the Change Since the Month (%) Beginning of the Year RTS (Russia) 341.31 - 3.67% - 4.39% Dow Jones Industrial Average (USA) 8131.01 - 5.31% -2.52% NASDAQ Composite (USA) 1342.14 -2.47% 0.50% S&P 500 (USA) 861.40 -4.48% -2.09% FTSE 100 (UK) 3603.7 -5.68% -8.54% DAX-30 (Germany) 2717.82 -6.89% -6.04% CAC-40 (France) 2898.6 -5.18% -5.40% Swiss Market (Switzerland) 4477.4 -5.81% -3.31% Nikkei-225 (Japan) 8731.65 0.48% 1.78% Bovespa (Brazil) 10784 -7.64% -4.30% IPC (Mexico) 6012.56 -3.09% -1.87% IPSA (Chile) 994.00 -1.87% Strait Times (Singapore) 1d358.04 -0.64% 1.27% Seoul Composite (Korea) 609.43 -4.25% -2.89% ISE National-100 (Turkey) 10.825.87 4.61% 4.40% Morgan Stanley Emerging Markets Free Index 293.897 -2.67% 0.62% Foreign Exchange Market Following the upsurge by as many as 10 kopecks to the value of RUR/ US$ 31.8846 that occurred at the first trade session in the new year on January 8, caused by deferred demand due to the long holidays, the exchange rate stabilized around the RUR/ US$ 31.81 peg. The strengthening of the Rouble was caused by appearance of more attractive instruments. For instance, the outflow of RUR funds could have been brought about by auctions for the placement of government bonds within the framework of the Modified Exchange Repo system and by deposit auctions organized by the Central Bank at a time when the offer of hard currency remained consistently high due to inflow of export revenues.
Balances in correspondent accounts fell from RUR 100 - 110 billion in the beginning of the month to 60 - 70 billion by the middle of the month. Overnight interbank deposit rates grew from 3 - percent to 11 - 12 percent over the period.
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