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INSTITUTE FOR THE ECONOMY IN TRANSITION RUSSIAN ECONOMY: TRENDS AND PERSPECTIVES January 2003 MONTHLY BULLETIN Moscow 2003 Institute for the Economy in Transition, 1996. Licence, 02079 19 2000 .

5 Gazetny pereulok, Moscow 103918, Russian Federation Phone: (095) 203-88-16 Fax: (095) 202-42-24 E- Mail: todorov@iet.ru The State of the Federal Budget............................................................................................. 3 Monetary Policy..................................................................................................................... 6 Financial Markets................................................................................................................... 7 Investment in fixed assets..................................................................................................... 15 The Real Sector: Factors and Trends.................................................................................... 17 IET Business Survey: Industry............................................................................................. 19 Foreign Trade....................................................................................................................... 21 On the progress of reforms in 2002...................................................................................... 24 The dynamics of privatization process in 2002.................................................................... 26 Household Deposits: Dynamics in 2002.............................................................................. 31 An Analysis of Military and Related Expenditures of the Federal Budget for 2003.......... 34 2 The State of the Federal Budget The federal budget in January through November of 2002 was executed as follows: revenues (cash execution) Rb. 1991.4 billion (or 20.1 % of GDP), expenditures Rb. 1788.0 billion (or 18.0 % of GDP) (see Table 1). Therefore, the federal budget surplus made Rb. 203.4 billion, or 2.1 % of GDP.

Table 1.

The monthly execution of the federal budget of the Russian Federation (in % of GDP1, in comparable prices) XII`01 I`02 II`02 III`02 IV`02 V`02 VI`02 VII`02 VIII`02 IX`02 X`02 XI`Revenues Corporate profit tax 2,4% 1,4% 1,4% 1,5% 1,9% 1,9% 1,7% 1,7% 1,7% 1,6% 1,7% 1,6% Personal income tax 0,0% 0,0% 0,0% 0,0% 0,0% 0,0% 0,0% 0,0% 0,0% 0,0% 0,0% 0,0% VAT, special tax and excises 0,0% 4,9% 4,4% 4,0% 3,9% 3,6% 3,5% 3,5% 3,3% 3,2% 3,1% 3,1% Tax on foreign trade and foreign 9,4% 9,3% 9,1% 9,3% 9,3% 9,3% 9,3% 9,3% 9,1% 9,0% 8,9% 8,9% trade operations Other taxes, duties and payments 7,1% 6,9% 6,4% 6,8% 6,9% 7,0% 7,0% 7,0% 7,0% 6,9% 6,9% 6,9% Total- taxes and charges 2,2% 2,4% 2,6% 2,5% 2,4% 2,3% 2,3% 2,2% 2,1% 2,0% 2,0% 1,9% Non- tax revenues 3,7% 3,2% 3,3% 3,2% 3,0% 2,9% 2,9% 2,9% 2,8% 2,8% 2,8% 2,9% Revenues, total 0,6% 9,7% 9,1% 8,7% 8,7% 8,4% 1,8% 2,0% 2,0% 2,0% 2,1% 2,1% Expenditure 16,2% 20,4% 19,6% 19,6% 19,9% 19,6% 19,3% 19,4% 18,9% 18,5% 18,6% 18,5% Public administration 1,4% 2,1% 1,6% 1,4% 1,3% 1,2% 1,3% 1,4% 1,4% 1,4% 1,6% 1,5% National defense 17,6% 22,4% 21,2% 20,9% 21,2% 20,9% 20,6% 20,9% 20,4% 20,0% 20,2% 20,1% International activities Judicial power 0,5% 0,1% 0,2% 0,3% 0,4% 0,4% 0,4% 0,4% 0,4% 0,4% 0,4% 0,4% Law enforcement and security 2,7% 1,0% 1,5% 1,9% 2,3% 2,4% 2,5% 2,5% 2,5% 2,4% 2,4% 2,5% activities Fundamental research 0,3% 0,4% 0,4% 0,4% 0,4% 0,4% 0,4% 0,4% 0,3% 0,3% 0,3% 0,3% Services provided for the national 0,1% 0,0% 0,1% 0,1% 0,1% 0,1% 0,1% 0,1% 0,1% 0,1% 0,2% 0,2% economy Social services 1,6% 0,6% 0,9% 1,0% 1,2% 1,2% 1,3% 1,4% 1,4% 1,4% 1,4% 1,5% Servicing of public debt 0,3% 0,0% 0,1% 0,2% 0,2% 0,2% 0,2% 0,2% 0,2% 0,2% 0,2% 0,3% Other expenditure 1,3% 0,1% 0,3% 0,4% 0,5% 0,6% 0,7% 0,8% 0,8% 0,8% 1,2% 1,3% Expenditure, total 2,3% 3,7% 4,8% 4,8% 5,3% 5,2% 5,2% 5,2% 5,1% 4,9% 5,5% 5,6% Loans, redemption exclusive 2,6% 2,0% 3,4% 3,4% 2,6% 2,5% 2,4% 2,3% 2,4% 2,4% 2,2% 2,0% Expenditure and loans, redemption 3,0% 2,9% 3,3% 3,6% 3,9% 4,0% 4,0% 4,0% 3,9% 3,8% 3,9% 3,9% exclusive Budget deficit (-) 14,7% 10,9% 15,0% 16,1% 16,9% 17,1% 17,2% 17,2% 17,1% 16,9% 17,8% 18,0% Domestic financing 2,9% 11,5% 6,2% 4,8% 4,3% 3,8% 3,4% 3,7% 3,3% 3,1% 2,4% 2,1% Other taxes, duties and payments -0,1% -11,2% -4,6% -2,7% -2,0% -1,8% -1,6% -1,8% -1,3% -1,2% -0,5% -0,2% Total- taxes and charges -2,8% -0,4% -1,6% -2,1% -2,3% -1,9% -1,8% -1,9% -1,9% -1,9% -1,9% -1,9% Non- tax revenues -2,9% -11,5% -6,2% -4,8% -4,3% -3,8% -3,4% -3,7% -3,3% -3,1% -2,4% -2,1% * % ; ** As compared with the figures registered in the respective period of 2001, the budget revenues increased by 3.0 p.p., while expenditures grew by 4.1 p.p. and budget surplus decreased by 1.1 p.p.

VAT accounted for the major share of federal tax revenues 37 % of the total tax revenues, what is somewhat below the respective indicator observed in January through November of the preceding year (42 %).

Social services accounted for the major part of the expenditures of the federal budget 5.5 % of GDP, or 31 % of the total expenditures. As of December 1, the expenditures for the servicing of the public debt made 2.0 % of GDP, what is the record low since the beginning of 2002 (in the respective period of the preceding year the expenditures for the servicing of the public debt made 2.7 % of GDP).

According to the preliminary estimates of the Finance Ministry, as concerns the fulfilled fundingthe federal budget in 2002 was executed as follows: revenues Rb. 2198.5 billion (20.1 % of GDP), expenditures Rb. 2044.2 billion (18.7 % of GDP) (see Table 2).

Because of the estimated data on GDP, the indices may be subject to revision.

The execution of the budget in terms of fulfilled (actual) financing is equal to the sum of the funds transferred to managers of budget funds, while the cash execution of the budget is equal to the sum of funds spent by managers of funds (i.e. without account of funds remained on their accounts).

Table The monthly execution of the federal budget of the Russian Federation (in % GDP, fulfilled funding).

I`02 II`02 III`02 IV`02 V`02 VI`02 VII`02 VIII`02 IX`02 X`02 XI`02 XII`Total 22,2% 21,0% 20,9% 21,2% 20,8% 20,5% 20,5% 20,5% 20,0% 20,2% 20,1% 20,1% Public administration 0,5% 0,5% 0,5% 0,5% 0,5% 0,5% 0,5% 0,5% 0,5% 0,5% 0,6% 0,5% National defense 1,7% 2,4% 2,4% 2,7% 2,7% 2,7% 2,7% 2,7% 2,6% 2,7% 2,8% 2,6% International activities 0,4% 0,2% 0,4% 0,5% 0,4% 0,4% 0,4% 0,3% 0,3% 0,3% 0,3% 0,3% Judicial power 0,2% 0,2% 0,2% 0,2% 0,2% 0,2% 0,2% 0,2% 0,2% 0,2% 0,2% 0,2% Law enforcement and security 1,6% 1,4% 1,4% 1,5% 1,5% 1,6% 1,9% 1,6% 1,6% 1,7% 1,8% 1,7% activities Fundamental research 0,3% 0,3% 0,2% 0,3% 0,3% 0,3% 0,2% 0,3% 0,3% 0,3% 0,3% 0,3% Services provided for the 0,3% 0,6% 0,8% 0,9% 1,0% 1,0% 1,1% 1,1% 1,0% 1,5% 1,5% 1,5% national economy Social services 5,0% 5,7% 5,3% 5,9% 5,7% 5,5% 5,6% 5,4% 5,2% 5,7% 5,8% 5,7% Servicing of public debt 1,9% 3,4% 3,4% 2,7% 2,5% 2,4% 2,6% 2,4% 2,4% 2,2% 2,0% 2,0% Other expenditure 3,5% 4,0% 3,9% 4,0% 4,6% 4,2% 4,0% 4,0% 4,0% 3,9% 3,9% 3,8% Total expenditure 15,5% 18,7% 18,6% 19,1% 19,4% 18,9% 19,1% 18,6% 18,2% 19,2% 19,2% 18,7% (+) / (-) 6,8% 2,3% 2,3% 2,1% 1,4% 1,6% 1,4% 1,8% 1,7% 1,0% 0,9% 1,4% According to preliminary estimates of the Revenue Ministry, in December of 2002 tax revenues of the federal budget made Rb. 103 billion (without the single social tax). In real terms the revenues made 249.8 % of the level registered in January of 1999, while the respective indicator was at 306.6 % in the end of 2001 (see Table 3).

Table Actual tax revenues to the federal budget, according to the data of the MTC (in % of the data for January of 1999)3.

I II III IV V VI VII VIII IX X XI XII 100,0% 115,1% 122,0% 122,1% 104,5% 112,9% 127,0% 127,5% 124,3% 141,4% 160,8% 213,1% I II III IV V VI VII VIII IX X XI XII 149,3% 160,5% 181,3% 205,8% 233,1% 186,9% 181,0% 186,4% 173,1% 181,1% 201,7% 254,1% I II III IV V VI VII VIII IX X XI XII 204,4% 198,4% 227,6% 267,5% 252,2% 233,3% 231,9% 235,6% 219,4% 237,5% 247,3% 360,6% I II III IV V VI VII VIII IX X XI XII 218,7% 187,1% 234,8% 277,8% 239,6% 218,0% 284,4% 246,5% 254,8% 299,7% 241,0% 249,8% It was decided to choose January of 1999 as the benchmark in order to render the comparison more reliable.

January of 1999 is not a remarkable date in terms of tax revenues.

Figure 1. Rate of growth of the real tax arrears to the federal budget (in % to July 1999) 200% 180% Profit tax VAT 160% 140% 120% 100% 80% The debts related to the payments due to the federal budget made Rb. 248.8 billion as on November 1, 2002, the arrears of the profit tax made Rb. 35.3 billion. For the dynamics of actual tax debts as broken down by key taxes since June of 1999 see Figure 14.

The revenues of the consolidated budget in January trough November of 2002 made 32.1 % of GDP, including tax revenues at 25.4 % of GDP (see Table 4). Expenditures of the consolidated budget somewhat increased and made 29.7 % of GDP. The surplus of the consolidated budget in January through November of 2002 was 2.4 % of GDP, what is the record low in the last two years.

Table Execution of the RF consolidated budget (in % of GDP).

I II III IV V VI VII VIII IX X XI XII Taxes 16,2% 17,4% 18,1% 19,3% 19,7% 19,8% 19,8% 19,4% 18,8% 18,5% 18,6% 19,6% Revenues 18,8% 20,1% 21,2% 22,4% 23,0% 23,2% 23,2% 22,9% 22,3% 22,0% 22,0% 24,5% Expendit 25,3% 23,8% 27,0% 28,1% 28,6% 29,5% 29,4% 28,6% 27,4% 26,9% 27,1% 29,5% ures Deficit -6,5% -3,7% -5,8% -5,7% -5,7% -6,3% -6,2% -5,7% -5,2% -5,0% -5,0% -5,1% I II III IV V VI VII VIII IX X XI XII Taxes 16,8% 16,6% 18,1% 19,9% 20,1% 20,5% 20,8% 20,8% 20,3% 20,2% 20,9% 22,1% Revenues 19,2% 18,9% 20,6% 22,7% 23,2% 23,9% 24,3% 24,5% 24,1% 24,0% 24,8% 26,3% Expendit 18,6% 20,3% 23,6% 25,6% 26,6% 27,3% 27,4% 27,4% 26,7% 26,3% 26,7% 29,2% ures Deficit 0,6% -1,5% -3,1% -3,0% -3,4% -3,4% -3,1% -2,9% -2,7% -2,3% -1,9% -2,9% I II III IV V VI VII VIII I X XI XII Taxes 20,8% 21,4% 22,6% 24,2% 25,5% 25,4% 24,9% 24,8% 24,1% 23,7% 24,0% 24,6% Revenues 24,4% 24,8% 26,4% 28,2% 29,7% 29,7% 29,3% 29,2% 28,4% 28,0% 28,6% 30,0% Expendit 19,6% 21,1% 23,8% 24,8% 25,2% 25,5% 22,3% 25,1% 24,5% 24,2% 24,6% 27,0% ures Deficit 4,7% 3,7% 2,6% 3,4% 4,5% 4,3% 7,0% 4,1% 3,9% 3,8% 4,0% 3,0% I II III IV V VI VII VIII I XI XII Taxes 22,7% 23,6% 23,9% 25,4% 26,4% 26,0% 26,1% 25,9% 25,0% 24,8% 25,4% 27,1% Since 2001 the form of the MTCs presentation of the respective statistical data has been changed, and the data on debts to the federal budget across all the taxes are no longer available. Since January of 2002 the practice of balancing the data on the arrears against the amount of tax surplus has been ceased. In this relation the figure presents the data on the gross unbalanced tax arrears for comparability purposes.

June July August September October November December January February March April May June July August September October November December January February March April May June July August September October November December January February March April May June July August September October November December Revenues 25,9% 27,1% 27,4% 29,3% 30,5% 29,8% 29,9% 29,7% 28,3% 28,2% 28,8% 29,5% Expendit 16,8% 22,8% 23,7% 24,7% 25,1% 25,3% 25,5% 25,6% 24,9% 24,7% 25,0% 25,6% ures Deficit 9,1% 4,2% 3,7% 4,7% 5,4% 4,4% 4,4% 4,1% 3,5% 3,5% 3,8% 3,9% I II III IV V VI VII VIII IX X XI Taxes 28,7% 23,6% 24,3% 26,5% 26,6% 25,9% 26,4% 25,9% 25,2% 25,4% 25,4% Revenues 32,9% 31,3% 31,4% 33,6% 33,6% 32,7% 33,3% 32,5% 31,7% 32,0% 32,1% Expenditures 18,3% 23,7% 26,0% 28,4% 28,4% 28,8% 29,1% 28,9% 28,4% 29,3% 29,7% Deficit 14,6% 7,7% 5,4% 5,3% 5,2% 3,8% 4,2% 3,7% 3,3% 2,7% 2,4% * S. Batkibekov Monetary Policy In 2002 the CPI grew 15.1 percent, or 3.5 percentage points less than in 2001. The monthly dynamics of CPI growth rates in 2001 - 2002 is shown in Fig. 1: in 2002 the intra-year inflation volatility increased. The commodity structure of consumer prices is as follows: consumer goods: 11.percent; non-foods: 10.9 percent; services: 36.2 percent. The highest price growth rates were observed for motor spirit: 20.4 percent (2001: - 8.6 percent), housing and communal services: 48.8 percent (56.percent), medical services: 30.7 percent (22.5 percent), public transportation services: 26.0 percent (25.3 percent); and telecommunication services: 37.6 percent (23.3 percent). It should also be noted that in 2002, for the first time since the 1998 crisis, manufacturer prices were growing quicker than consumer prices. In 2002, according to preliminary estimates, the manufacturer price index grew 17.percent.

FIGURE 1. CONSUMER PRICE INDEX GROWTH RATES IN 2001 - (PERCENT PER MONTH) 2001-2002 . (% ) 3,5% 3,0% 2,5% 2,0% 1,5% 1,0% 0,5% 0,0% Starting from 2003, the State Committee for Statistics of the RF stopped publishing the weekly CPI values. According to our estimates, in January 2003 a traditional growth of inflation rates was observed and the CPI grew 2.0 - 2.2 percent.

In January 2003 a seasonal decrease of the money supply was observed. During the first three weeks of the month, the narrow monetary base contracted 3.2 percent (see Fig. 2). At the same time the Bank of Russia continued to accumulate gold and currency reserves and high oil prices contributed to this accumulation. Despite the fact that, according to the schedule, external debt payments in Quarter 1 of 2003 amounted to US$ 1.1 billion, by January 20 the amount of gold and currency reserves again reached an historic high of US$ 48.2 billion. Let us remember that by the end of the amount of gold and currency reserves of the Bank of Russia was US$ 47.792 billion; the share of gold in the reserves was not more than 7.85 percent.

FIGURE 2. DYNAMICS OF MONETARY BASE AND GOLD AND CURRENCY RESERVES IN 2002 - 2002-2003 .

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