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The volume of revenue from the VAT in the eleven months of 2010 amounted to 5.4 per cent of GDP. which is by 01. p.p. higher that in the relevant period of 2009. This dynamics is associated with improvement of tax administration and the gradual revival of business activity of economic agents. However. despite the stability of VAT collection indicators in relative terms. it should be noted that in absolute terms its indicator is somewhat lower than in pre-crisis indicator of 2008.
In January-November of 2010 there was a sustained increase in excise tax revenue to the budget of expanded government. The increase in revenue was 0.1 percentage points of GDP as compared with the indicator of 2009. The reason for this growth was the rapid increase in tax rates on a number of excisable goods from 2010.
In general it can be noted that the level of the tax burden on the economy in 11 months in has increased by 1.3 percentage points of GDP as compared with the same period in 2009 and reached 31.4 per cent of GDP. To a large extent the increase of this indicator is due to the influence of external factors. In the long run we should expect some increase in the tax burden. which is necessary to reduce the budget deficit in view of impossibility to reduce government liabilities during pre-election period. In particular. since 2011. the rates of contributions to the extrabudgetary funds are increased (total increase in rates was 8 per cent). In addition. there was increased a number of excise rates. Also increase affected MET and the rates of export customs duties on certain types of raw materials. At the same time rates of the main types of taxes. presumably. will not grow.
It should be noted that an increasing tax burden may negatively affect the recovery of economic growth and investment into the country. In order to offset the growth rates of certain types of taxes 1 http://top.rbc.ru/finances/15/12/2010/515391.shtml 2 According to the Federal State Statistics Service “On the financial performance of organizations in January-November 2010 “ RUSSIAN ECONOMY: TRENDS AND PERSPECTIVES and levies. it is expected to expand the list of tax benefits for certain categories of taxpayers. In general. it is expected that in future tax system will become neutral by reducing the total number of benefits.
It may be noted that throughout 2005-2010. the amount of benefits has been growing with the greatest amount of benefits provided by the federal budget. Using different kinds of tax benefits leads to the loss of a significant amount of budget revenues - in 2009 this sum amounted to about 2.7 trillion rubles (about 7 per cent of GDP)1. This amount could be credited to the budget system and reduce the deficit.
Against the background of growing revenue of the budget of expanded government within eleven months of 2010. relative level of expenditures demonstrated an explicit reduction. Budget expenditures decreased by 2.2 percentage points of GDP (Table 3).
Table EXECUTION OF THE BUDGET OF THE EXPANDED GOVERNMENT IN TERMS OF EXPENDITURES in January-november 2009 and 2010. % of the GdP January-November January-November Change.
2010 2009 percentage p.p. of p.p. of points of the RUR bn RUR bn GDP GDP GDP Total budget expenditures 14165.1 34.5 12995.1 36.7 –2.Among them Federal issues 1191.7 2.9 1072.5 3.0 –0.Including expenditures associated with the 241.7 0.59 211.0 0.60 –0.servicing of federal and municipal debt National defense 952.0 2.3 923.1 2.6 –0.National defense and law enforcement 1096.1 2.7 1052.4 3.0 –0.National Economy 1710.2 4.2 2161.1 6.1 –1.Housing and public utilities 840.9 2.1 782.5 2.2 –0.Environmental protection 22.2 0.05 23.4 0.07 –0.Education 1549.7 3.8 1470.9 4.2 –0.Culture. cinematography and mass media 287.9 0.7 268.0 0.8 –0.Health care and sports 1395.1 3.4 1368.4 3.9 –0.Social policy 5119.2 12.5 3871.4 10.9 +1.Source: RF Treasury. Gaidar Institute estimates.
In varying degrees of reduction in relative terms. nearly all budget lines of expanded government were reduced. excluding “Social policy”, the growth of which reached 1.6 per cent of GDP as compared with the same value in 2009.
The worst decline in public expenditures in relative terms was based on the reduced funding for «National Economy» budget line - by 1.9 percentage points of GDP, for «Health Care and Sports» and «Education” - by 0.4 - 0.5 percentage points of GDP. In addition. lower rates in spending are noted in the direction of «Federal issues». “National defense” and “National Security and Law Enforcement” - by 0.1 - 0.3 percentage points of GDP lower than in the corresponding period of 2009 for each of those areas.
RF federal budget execution within January-December According to the tentative estimates of the RF Ministry of Finance of the federal budget execution in 2010. budget revenues amounted to 18.2 per cent of GDP. which is by 0.6 percentage points of GDP lower than the indicator of the relevant period of 2009 (See Table 4). In absolute terms. the growth of federal budget revenues during the period under review mounted to 962 bn rubles.
The key sources of revenue were increased proceeds of fuel and energy complex as a result of sustained relatively favorable market prices and demand for the Russian exports. as well as the resumption of the physical volume of production of hydrocarbons. as well as general improvement 1 http://www.keycomments.ru/news/450861/ STATE BUDGET of the economic background. To the factors that caused the slowdown in revenue growth one can attribute the transformation of the UST. as well as lower revenues from investments of oil funds allocation.
Tentative assessments of federal budget expenditures in 2010 demonstrate significant decrease - by 2.6 percentage points of GDP against the level of the corresponding period of 2009.
at their nominal growth rate by about 460 billion rubles.
As a result. according to tentative assessments. the federal budget was executed with a deficit of 3.9 per cent of GDP against 5.9 per cent of GDP in 2009. However. according to tentative assessments. the amount of non-oil deficit has decreased by 1.2 p.p. of GDP as compared with the indicator of the preceding year and reached 12.3 p.p. of GDP. Such a large amount of non-oil deficit shows again a significant scope of the accepted state obligations not secured by non-oil budget revenue.
Table basic indicators of the rf federal budGet in January-december 2009–January-December January-December Budget execution Change 2010 in % versus year estimates RUR. bn % GDP RUR. bn % GDP RUR. bn % of GDP Revenues. including: 8298.9 18.2 7336.8 18.8 105.4 +962.1 -0.Oil and gas 3830.6 8.4 2984.0 7.6 102.5 +846.6 +0.Contributions to the Reserve Fund and 26.5 0.1 770.3* 2.0 – –743.8 –1.National Welfare Fund (Stabilization Fund) Revenues. including: 10094.1 22.1 9636.8 24.7 98.4 +457.3 –2.Interest expenditures 194.8 0.43 176.2 0.45 88.6 +18.6 -0.Non-interest 9899.2 21.7 9460.6 24.2 98.6 +438.6 -2.expenditures Deficit / Surplus of the –1795.2 –3.9 –2300.1 –5.9 75.4 +504.9 +2.federal budget Non-oil deficit –5625.8 –12.3 –5284.0 –13.5 91.9 +341.8 +1.GDP estimates 45 722.0 39 063.* Including investment income of funds for Source: RF Ministry of Finance (tentative assessments). Gaidar Institute estimates The key source of funding for the federal budget deficit financing remains the Reserve Fund (Table 5). According to preliminary estimates. in 2010 there wasspent about 1 trillion rubles from the Reserve Fund. At the same time. in early 2010. it was assumed that the expenditures of the Reserve Fund will reach 1.5 trillion rubles. A part of the money saved will be directed at reducing the federal budget deficit in 2011. The total amount of reserve fund planned to finance the federal budget deficit in 2011 is 285 billion rubles.
Table DYNAMICS OF FEDERAL BUDGET OIL AND GAS REVENUE AND EXPENDITURE WITHIN January-december 2009 - 2010. rur bn.
Utilized over January-December Indicators Oil and gas revenue of the federal budget Õ 3737.2 3830.6 õ Areas of oil and gas revenues Õ õ õ expenditure:
budget Balance as of budget Revenue within January 1. balance transfer Balance as of late Support of Support to Estimated for oil and gas the federal January - December RUSSIAN ECONOMY: TRENDS AND PERSPECTIVES Table 5, cont’d Utilized over January-December Indicators • Oil and gas transfers Õ 2531.1 3830.• Reserve Fund 1 830.5 5147.5 0 994.0 0 775.• National Welfare Fund 2 769.0 õ 26.5 2.5 – 2695.Total 4599.5 õ 3857.1 996.5 0 3470.* balances are calculated at the rate of January 1. Source: Federal Treasury The greater amount of the deficit will be funded through government borrowing and the funds received from privatization of federal property. It is assumed that the privatization program will replenish the budget by 900 billion rubles in 2011-2013.
As of Jnuary 1. 2011 the volume of the National Welfare Fund (NWF) has reduced to 2695.5 billion rubles. and this reduction was due to exchange rate fluctuations during the reporting period.
Table 6 shows the dynamics of the cash execution of the federal budget for the eleven months of the current year. according to the functional classification of budget expenditures. It should be noted that in general the dynamics of federal budget expenditures over January-November 2010 is less (by 1.4 per cent) against the rate of the cash budget execution for the relevant period of 2009.
The utmost decelerated rates are noted in the funds expenditures under the line of “Healthcare and Sports” and “National Economy” - by 6.7 and 4.6 per cent respectively lower than in 11 months of 2009. It should be noted that exercised in the previous months of 2010 in excess of the last year dynamics for “Intergovernmental transfers”. is reduced as of 11 months results versus the rates of 2009 by 36 percentage points. Financing of the “enforcement” budget line is also carried out at lower rates against the parameters of 2009 approximately by 3.0-3.7 per cent for each article.
Table cash execution of the federal budGet within January-november 2009-( % VERSUS BUDGET ESTIMATES FOR THE YEAR) January-November January-November 2010 Total Budget Expenditures 81.01.4 82.Including Federal issues 74.3 70.Including expenditures associated with the servicing of federal 84.9 79.and municipal debt National defense 73.4 76.National defense and law enforcement 80.8 84.National Economy 66.9 71.Housing and public utilities 80.7 66.Environmental protection 81.2 75.Education 74.2 78.Culture. cinematography and mass media 80.6 82.Health care and sports 67.2 73.Social policy 82.9 79.Interbudgetary transfers 91.1 94.Source: RF Ministry of Finance. Gaidar Institute estimates.
budget Balance as of budget Revenue within January 1. balance transfer Balance as of late Support of Estimated for Support to oil and gas the federal January - December STATE BUDGET However. contrary to the general trend of a slowdown in spending pf the federal budget. there was observed an acceleration in some budget lines funding. Among the articles of the functional classification. accelerated transfer of funds to recipients may be noted in expenditures for “Housing and public utilities”. “Environmental Protection” and “Federal issues”.
Tentative results of budget execution for 2010 indicate that the approved by the budget law limits of funds for 2010 are used by 98 per cent. In addition. approximately 17 per cent of them were transferred to performers only in December 2010. which demonstrates irregularity of budget funds within the year. The right to use unspent funds will not be transferred tor 2011. excluding the assets related to the activities of the Investment Fund and Road Fund1.
1 http://www.openbudget.ru/video/index.phpELEMENT_ID=RUSSIAN ECONOMY: TRENDS AND PERSPECTIVES RUSSIAN BANKING SECTOR S.Borisov In November 2010, the banking sector’s assets grew by 2. 4%. The increase was fueled chiefly by the volume of interbanking lending and loans to the real sector. The structure of the banking sector’s investments is still dominated by investments to the RF bonds, corporate bonds, and the CBR’s papers. The proportion of investment to the RF Subjects’ bonds has surged substantially since the early 2010. The share of idle assets remained steadily at the level of 8.3%. The banking sector’s profits rose by Rb. 56 bln. in November.
Table MAIN INDICATORS OF RUSSIAN BANKING SYSTEM. AS RB. BLN.
As of 01.12.As of As of Growth since 01.12.2009. 01.01.2010.
Year-on-year Nominal the start of Rb. Bln.. Rb. Bln.
growth. as % the year. as % Assets 28 691.9 29 430.0 32 671.8 11.0% 13.9% Loans to non-financial 12 697.8 12 541.7 13 904.0 10.9% 9.5% organizations Loans to private individuals 3 586.2 3 573.8 3 997.7 11.9% 11.5% Loans to banks 2 823.0 2 725.9 3 283.4 20.5% 16.3% Investments in bonds 3 121.6 3 379.1 4 516.7 33.7% 44.7% Deposits with the CBR 1 238.6 1 423.1 362.9 –74.5% –70,7% Banks’ deposits 3 262.3 3 117.3 3 685.6 18.2% 13.0% Corporate deposits 5 227,3 5 466.6 5 620.0 2.8% 7.5% Private deposits 6 998,8 7 485.0 9 250.4 23.6% 32.2% Impairment 1 959,9 2 050.6 2 279.7 11.2% 16.3% Profit (in the respective year) 96,4 205.1 495.3 413.8% Source: the Bank of Russia.
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