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The total volume of outstanding issues in the period from December 24 to January 25 totaled to 45 billion rubles (against the previous corresponding period - 83,6 billion rubles.), and the amount of emissions - 8 (in late November - December, there were placed 30 bond issues). Thus, the performance of IPOs were significantly lower than the averages, but in January such dynamics is quite common (Fig. 2). During the period under review, the largest bond issues were placed by SC Rosnanotech (three series 25 310 of seven-year bonds totaling to Effective yield Index IFX-Cbonds billion rubles.) and OAO Agency 290 for Housing Mortgage Lending (one series of bonds amounting to 270 5 billion rubles, maturing in 2027, and for the Agency for Housing 250 Mortgage Lending this was the second placement in December of 230 the last year).

Within December 24 January 210 25, the Russian Federal Financial Markets Service has not canceled 0 190 any issues of bonds, though in late November that was the reason for canceling the bond issues of OAO Nuclear Power Complex and OAO VTB-Leasing Finance2.

Source: Rusbonds data In the period from December Fig. 6. Russian corporate bonds index dynamics and average through January 25, twenty two weighted yield bond issues were to be redeemed 1 Source: Rusbonds data.

2 Data of the Russian Federal Financial Markets Service Effective yield, % Index IFX-Cbonds 24.09.22.10.22.11.24.12.22.01.22.02.24.03.22.04.22.05.23.06.22.07.22.08.24.09.24.10.24.11.24.12.26.01.24.02.24.03.23.04.26.05.25.06.23.07.26.08.25.09.22.10.24.11.23.12.25.01.24.02.25.03.23.04.27.05.24.06.23.07.30.08.24.09.25.10.24.11.22.12.25.01.FINANCIAL MARKET (for the total nominal Total emis s ion 280 A mount of plac ed is s ues value of 5.3 billion rubles), but two issuers have announced a technical default on redemption of their bonds with the total nominal value of 0.6 billion rubles (against seven issuers who have announced a technical default on redemption of their bonds with the total nominal value of 6.7 billion rubles). In February 2011, 12 corporate bond issues 0 totaling to 40.1 billion rubles are expected to be redeemed1.

The majority of technical Source: Rusbonds data defaults on repayment of bonds in December last Fig. 7. Dynamics of corporate securities primary placement, denominated in national currency.

year turned into reality at the beginning of this year. As a result, from December 24 through January 25, six emitters were unable to repay the investment to investors. Two more emitters failed to comply with its obligations under the offer (bonds redemption), although one of them managed to reach an agreement with bondholders on the debt restructuring. The situation with the performance of current debt liabilities by emitters was still not easy: within the period under review the real default on bonds coupon yield redemption was announced by for four emissions (from November 25 to December 23, the real default on bonds coupon yield redemption was announced by six emitters six emitters2.

1 Rusbonds data.

2 Cbonds data Amount of placed bond issues Total volume of placed bond issues, billion rubles Jul.Jul.Jul.Oct.Apr.Sept.Oct.Apr.Sept.Oct.Apr.Sept.Oct.Jan.Mar.Jun.Jan.Mar.Jun.Jan.Mar.Jun.Jan.Nov.Feb.May.Aug.Nov.Feb.May.Aug.Nov.Feb.May.Aug.Nov.Dec.Dec.Dec.Dec.RUSSIAN ECONOMY: TRENDS AND PERSPECTIVES THE REAL SECTOR OF THE ECONOMY:

FACTORS AND TRENDS O.Izryadnova According to preliminary estimates, GDP growth in 2010 was 4.0 %, while investments in fixed assets rose 6.1 %, and retail turnover 4.2 % against the previous year. The industrial production index was 108.2% against its previous years level, including 111.8 % in the processing industries.

The revival of economic growth was followed by a normalization of the situation on the labor market.

The overall number of unemployed dropped in 2009 by 10.9 %.

The macroeconomic situation in 2010 was marked by a rather instable dynamics of its main indices throughout the year. Growth during the first half-year, which was sustained by the favorable conditions on the world raw materials market, in the second half-year gave way to a slower rate of economic development due to the effect of certain domestic factors.

According to Rosstats data, over January - September 2010, GDP growth was 3.7 % against the same period of the previous year. In Q III 2010, GDP growth dropped to 2.7 % against 5.2 % in Q II and 3.1 % in Q I. In Q IV 2010, the positive effects produced by an expanding investment and consumer demand proved to be sufficiently strong to compensate for the diminished volumes of agricultural output, and so the growth rate of GDP, according to the preliminary estimated published by the RF Ministry of Economic Development, rose by nearly 5.0 % on the same period of last year. As demonstrated by Rosstats reports, in 2010 investments in fixed assets increased by 6.1 %, and retail turnover by 4.4 %, as compared to their 2009 indices. The industrial production growth index in 2010 rose to 108.2 % of its previous years level, including that for the processing industries to 111.8 %, for the extracting industries to 103.6%, and the production and distribution of electric energy, gas and water to 104.1 %. The agricultural production volume amounted to 88.1 % of its 2009 level. As a result, GDP growth according to the preliminary data for the year 2010 may turn out to be 4 %, against the initially expected 3.8 %.

Table MAIN MACROECONOMIC INDICES FOR 2009 2010, AS % OF A PREVIOUS YEARS LEVEL 2009 Q Q Per Per annum annum 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 Gross domestic product 92.1 90.7 89.0 91.4 97.1 104.0* 103.1 105.2 102.7 105.0* Investments in fixed assets 83.8 82.7 77.2 81.8 90.6 106.1 95.9 105.3 107.2 112.8* Housing put in operation 93.5 102.5 99.7 98.8 86.4 97.0 91.7 107.5 85.9 100.Production volume in construction 84.0 80.7 80.7 82.8 89.3 99.4 91.9 99.9 102.2 105.Industrial production volume 89.2 84.5 86.4 90.4 101.8 108.2 109.5 110.9 106.4 106.Extraction of mineral resources 99.4 94.9 97.3 99.9 105.4 103.6 106.7 104.8 101.3 102.Processing industries 84.8 76.1 79.3 85.0 100.0 111.8 112.1 116.3 109.5 109.Production of electric energy, gas and water 96.1 94.9 94.5 94.0 101.4 104.1 107.7 102.6 103.9 101.Agricultural product 101.2 102.3 100.8 99.0 105.2 88.1 103.6 102.3 81.4 91.Cargo turnover in transport 89.8 82.8 82.2 93.1 102.0 106.9 111.6 113.0 101.7 102.Retail turnover 95.1 100.4 94.9 91.4 94.5 104.4 101.7 105.3 105.9 104.Commercial services to the population 95.8 99.1 95.3 93.6 95.6 101.4 99.9 101.6 101.5 101.Foreign trade turnover 64.9 56.2 55.4 59.9 91.0 130.5* 144.1 139.0 125.9 119.9* Real disposable money incomes 102.3 100.7 103.4 96.6 108.2 104.3 107.4 103.2 104.4 102.Real wages 96.5 99.2 96.1 94.8 99.3 104.2 103.1 106.1 105.1 102.Total number of unemployed 131.7 134.8 152.1 132.2 112.3 89.1 96.3 86.7 87.2 85.Number of unemployed, officially 148.9 126.5 157.4 163.0 152.3 90.0 114.2 91.1 81.0 91.registered *) preliminary data Source: Rosstat.

THE REAL SECTOR OF THE ECONOMY: FACTORS AND TRENDS This specific combi25,nation of the rates 20,of domestic and ex15,ternal demand had a decisive effect on the 10,peculiarities of the post5,crisis development of 0,the national economy observed in 2010. From -5,Q IV 2009, the dynamics -10,of exports (external demand) once again -15,became positive, while -20,the domestic market I . II . III . IV . I . II . III . IV . I II III IQ 4.

Q 1 Q 2 Q 3 Q 4 Q 1 Q 2 Q 3 Q Q 1. Q 2. Q 3. V est.

was gradually growing throughout the year 2008 2009 2010.

An analysis of the domestic market external demand (export) GDP ( ) dynamics of economic development broken Source: Rosstat.

up by component of Fig. 1. GDP Changes, by Domestic and External Demand Components in external and domestic 2010, As % of the Same Quarter of a Previous Year demand can serve as an illustration of its very high dependence on foreign trade. Over the first three quarters of 2010, the rate of growth on the domestic market was 5.8 %, while exports rose by 10.3 % on the same period of the previous year, and the domestic production of commodities for domestic consumption - by 1.5 %. Given the existing difference in the growth rates of the output of commodities for export and for domestic consumption, the balance of demand and supply on the domestic consumer and investment markets was sustained at an adequate level due to the revival, from Q II 2010 onwards, of the trend towards an accelerated growth of imports by comparison with exports and domestic production.

Table SHARES OF CONSUMER, INTERMEDIATE AND INVESTMENT COMMODITIES IN THE RFS TOTAL IMPORTS (BASED ON BALANCE OF PAYMENTS), AS % OF RESULT Type of commodity Consumer Investment Intermediate I Q 45.0 22.6 32.I QI 41.3 23.9 34.III Q 43.6 24.2 32.IV Q 37.8 24.4 37.Per annum 41.8 23.8 34.I Q 46.8 18.6 34.II Q 44.0 18.1 38.III Q 42.9 20.6 36.IV Q 43.9 19.5 36.Per annum 44.3 19.7 36.I Q 43.5 16.8 39.II Q 39.5 18.7 41.III Q 42.1 19.8 38.Source: Rosstat.

RUSSIAN ECONOMY: TRENDS AND PERSPECTIVES At the same time, in 2009 2010 there occurred some negative shifts in the overall structure of imports, when the share of imports in investment commodities was rapidly shrinking against the backdrop of a reorientation toward the other two types of commodities intended to satisfy consumer and intermediate demand.

The emergence of this trend was followed by an increasing share of imports in the retail commodity resources. The opposite trend observed in 2009, when the share of imports in retail commodities was shrinking, had disappeared. The share of imports throughout 2010 was systematically increasing, having achieved by Q III the level of 47 %.

Table THE STRUCTURE OF RETAIL COMMODITY RESOURCES IN 2009 - 2010, % Including Retail commodity resources Domestic production Imported I Q 100 55 II Q 100 60 III Q 100 59 IV Q 100 61 Year 100 59 I Q 100 56 II Q 100 58 III Q 100 53 Source: Rosstat.

When the dynamics of economic development is analyzed by the components of external and domestic demand, one may notice that it very strongly depends on external factors. Lack of any significant structural changes, the development by inertia of both exports-oriented and end-demand production (based on extensive use of basic factors), and a high share of imports in the resources available on the domestic market were determining the low competitive capacity of the Russian economy in conditions on the post-crisis growth in 2010.

The dynamics of the processing industries was rather significantly differentiated by type of economic activity, while the strongest impact was made by the ratio of production rates of capital and consumer commodities.

Table PRODUCTION INDICES, BY TYPE OF ACTIVITY, IN THE PROCESSING INDUSTRIES IN 2008 2010, AS % OF THE SAME PERIOD OF A PREVIOUS YEAR 2009 Q Q Per Per annum annum I II III IV I II III IV Processing industries 84.8 76.1 79.3 85.0 100 111.8 112.1 116.3 112.6 109.Production of foodstuffs, 99.4 97.5 97.5 97.8 103.9 105.4 103.8 106.4 105.4 105.including beverages and tobacco Production of textiles and 83.8 79.1 78.0 82.6 95.9 112.1 110.2 115.6 111.4 111.garments Production of leather, leather 99.9 85.8 97.3 104.5 112.3 118.7 126.3 120.0 111.4 118.products and footwear Timber processing and timber 79.3 71.7 74.7 79.8 92.4 111.4 111.1 112.6 111.4 110.products Pulp and paper production, 85.7 78.1 82.9 86.3 96.5 105.9 106.7 109.3 106.7 97.publishing and printing Production of coke and 99.4 95.8 99.8 100.2 101.6 105.0 104.7 105.3 103.5 106.petroleum products THE REAL SECTOR OF THE ECONOMY: FACTORS AND TRENDS Table 4, contd 2009 Q Q Per Per annum annum I II III IV I II III IV Chemical production 93.1 77.9 86.4 91.9 123.1 114.6 123.8 115.7 112.5 108.Production of rubber and plastic 87.4 72.7 84.7 89.3 101.4 121.5 122.8 119.2 121.9 122.products Production of other non-metal 72.5 63.5 66.6 75.0 85.1 110.7 104.9 114.2 109.1 113.mineral products Metallurgy production and production of finished metal 85.3 70.0 75.2 86.3 114.4 112.4 118.8 119.6 107.3 104.products Production of machinery and 68.5 56.5 62.5 70.7 87.8 112.2 109.1 130.5 101.4 110.equipment Production of electrical, 67.8 56.8 61.3 69.9 82.4 122.8 130.4 127.5 117.3 119.electronic and optical equipment Production of means of transportation and transport 62.8 61.0 59.2 56.7 74.3 132.2 113.3 141.2 138.1 135.equipment Other industries 79.3 67.3 70.7 82.7 98.5 117.7 130.7 135.4 117.1 114.Source: Rosstat.

While the rate of growth varied rather significantly depending on a specific type of activity across the processing industries, the dramatic drop in the machine-building output in 2009 was the leading negative factor that became responsible for the changes in the business activity in the allied industries (construction materials and other types of intermediate commodities). The level of growth achieved in these sectors in 2010 so far has failed to compensate for the losses in production incurred during that time.

Our analysis of the main macroeconomic trends has led us to the conclusion that, although in 2010 the acute phase of the crisis was already a thing of the past for the Russian economy, there existed certain limitations to development in the medium term, namely the instable dynamics displayed by the main macroindices, the low indices observed in the investment and crediting spheres, and the complicated situation on the labor market. On the other hand, the dynamics of investments in fixed assets and the construction industry during the last two quarters and the investments in construction materials and machine-building over the past year have given rise to some hopes that the investment complex is going to wake up.

The national economy continues to be dominated by the same factors that determined both the speed and the depth of the decline during the crisis, and the speed of the subsequent rehabilitation:

the dependence on the movement of the world prices for raw materials; low domestic demand and the lax attitude of domestic producers to intervening on the markets for consumer, investment and intermediate commodities; a weak financial system and absence of long-term financial investments in the economy.

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