Similar trends were observed in the RTS FORTS futures market, where the investors’ average daily activity in January has decreased by 43 per cent as compared with the previous month.
Thus, in the period from December 21 through January 24 the total market turnover of futures and options in RTS made about RUR 1,915.42 billion (6.17 million of transactions, 36.3 million of contracts) with the average daily turnover at the level of 100.81 bn (as compared with about RUR 2,993.74 billion (9.57 million of transactions, 58.43 million of contracts) with the average daily turnover of RUR 176.1 in December. The greatest demand among the market participants, as before, was demonstrated in futures: trading volume in them during the period under review amounted to RUR 1,802.46 billion (6.02 million of transactions and 34.76 million of contracts).
Herewith, in the first place in terms of futures trading volume were the futures contracts for the RTS index, which were followed with a significant margin by the futures contracts for the dollar-ruble rate and for Euro/USD rate and for the shares of Sberbank of Russia and Gazprom shares. It should be noted that prices of the latest transactions, concluded in the RTS FORTS on futures contracts RUR/USD rate for the date of execution on March 15, 2011, were within RUR 30–30.9 /USD, and for June 15, 2011 - RUR 30.3–31.2/USD. The value of futures contract for the RTS index (based on the prices of recent contracts) with the execution date on March 15, made 1,750 - 1900points and for June 15, 2011 was estimated on average at 1,750–1,890 points.
Options enjoyed far less demand, the turnover made about RUR 112.96 bn (154.81 thousand transactions and 1.54 of contracts). The maximum daily turnover in the short-term RTS futures market in the period under review made RUR 185.99 billion (as of January 20), and the minimum was RUR 61.07 (as of January 11).
External factors behind the Russian stock market dynamics In January 2011 the Russian financial market dynamics, as a month earlier, was largely dependent on the situation in the global financial markets. Among the basic factors of positive global market indicators, affecting the Russian market from December 21, 2010 trough January 24, 2011, one should mention:
- preservation of the Central Bank of Japan's key rate at the level of 0.1 per cent;
- growth of U.S. GDP in III quarter 2010, according to the final data, by 2.6 per cent (2.4 per cent – by tentative data) as compared with the previous quarter, in annual terms;
- increase in sales of new homes in the U.S. in November 2010 as compared with the previous month by 5.5 per cent;
FINANCIAL MARKET - reducing unemployment in the U.S. in December 2010 as compared with the previous month to 9.4 per cent;
- loans attraction by insurance company American International Group Inc. (AIG) totaling to USD 4.3 billion dollars to the return of public funds;
- allocation by Portugal in the world financial market the government short-term treasury bonds for the amount of Euro 500 million for the period of 6 months;
- reducing the budget deficit of Portugal as of 2010 results up to level below the planned 7.3 per cent of GDP;
- growth of Chinese economy in 2010 (10 per cent) and gold reserves of the country (nearly by 450 billion dollars);
- China willingness to buy government bonds of Spain amounting for Euro6 billion in support to combat the debt crisis;
- slowdown in inflation in the US as of 2010 results up to 1.5 per cent (2,7 per cent in 2009);
- increase in net profit of U.S. bank JPMorgan Chase & Co as of the 2010 results by 1.5 times to USD 17.4 billion, of Citigroup - to USD 10,6 billion (USD 1.6 billion net loss a year earlier), of IBM - by 10.5 per cent to USD 14.8 billion.
Along with the above, the following events were restraining the global financial markets growth within the month:
- international rating agency Moody's Investors Service long-term and short-term sovereign credit ratings of Portugal establishment at the level of A1/Prime-1 for review with the possibility of lowering;
- lowering by the rating agency Fitch Ratings of the long-term rating of Hungary foreign currency debt from BBB to BBB-, long-term rating of Hungary local currency from BBB to BBB + with a "negative" outlook, the country ceiling rating - from A to A-and the Hungary short-term rating on foreign currency debt was affirmed at F3;
- reduction of long-term rating of Portugal by rating agency Fitch Ratings in the local and foreign currency from AA-to A + rating outlook "negative", and short-term foreign currency rating - from a F1 + to F1;
- decrease the rating agency Fitch Ratings rating Greece BBB-to BB +, outlook - "negative";
- decrease of Greece rating by the rating agency Fitch Ratings from BBB-to BB +, outlook - "negative";
- reduction of the trade surplus of Japan in November 2010 by 55,4 per cent in annual terms;
- increase of the UK budget deficit to GBP 23.3 billion in November 2010 (by GBP 5.9 billion more than in November 2009);
- decline in orders for durable goods in the US in November 2010 as compared with the previous month by 1.3 per cent, as well as the decline in the construction of new homes in the US in December 2010, as compared with the previous month by 4.3 per cent ;
- decision of the People's Bank of China to tighten monetary policy to fight with inflation in 2011, as well as raising key lending rate by 0.25 percentage points up to 5.81 per cent from 26.12.2010;
- growth of the UK GDP in the III-rd quarter of 2010, according to final data by 0.7 per cent (by 0.8 per cent - according to tentative estimates) compared to the previous quarter, the GDP of France - by 0.3 per cent (by 0.4 per cent - as per initial data);
- decrease of Goldman Sachs net income by 38 per cent as of 2010.results, and net losses of the Bank of America in the amount of 3.6 billion dollars.
All those factors have generally resulted in the increased dynamics of the global stock indices in January (by 1-4 per cent) and volatile dynamics in developing countries, as of the month results.
Thus, the markets of the developing countries were demonstrating both, a general increase in the indices by 1-3 per cent over the month, as well as decline by 1-5 per cent. Compared to the beginning of January 2011, the majority of stock indices of developed countries, as well as emerging markets have shown a similar volatile trend (See Table. 1 and Fig. 5).
RUSSIAN ECONOMY: TRENDS AND PERSPECTIVES Table DYNAMICS OF THE GLOBAL STOCK INDICES (AS OF JANUARY 24, 2011) Dynamics Dynamics Index Ticker Value within the from the year month(%)* beginning (%) MICEX (Russia) MICEXINDEXCF 1 720.70 3.46 1.RTS (Russia) RTSI 1 861.66 7.01 5.Dow Jones Industrial (USA) Average (USA) DJI 11 980.52 4.38 3.NASDAQ Composite (USA) NASD 2 717.55 2.57 2.S&P 500 (USA) SPX 1 290.84 3.51 2.FTSE 100 (UK) FTSE 5 943.85 0.89 0.DAX-30 (Germany) DAX 7 067.77 0.70 2.CAC-40 (France) CAC 4 033.21 3.81 6.Swiss Market (Switzerland) SSMI 6 603.80 1.27 2.Nikkei-225 (Japan) NIKKEI 10 345.11 1.26 1.Overpay (Brazil) BUSP 69 426.57 3.22 0.IPC (Mexico) IPC 37 667.90 –0.81 –2.IPSA (Chile) IPSA 4 882.97 –2.20 –0.Straits Times (Singapore) STI 3 185.76 1.69 –0.Seoul Composite (South Korea) KS11 2 082.16 3.06 1.ISE National-100 (Turkey) XU100 65 201.71 2.68 –1.BSE 30 (India) BSE 19 151.28 –3.71 –6.Shanghai Composite (China) SSEC 2 695.72 –5.51 –4.Morgan Stanley Emerging Frontier EFM 901.07 2.37 –1.Markets Index * – Versus index indicator valid on December 20, 2010.
145,0% Dow Jones Industrial Average NASDAQ Composite The MICEX Index The RTS Index 137,5% 130,0% 122,5% 115,0% 107,5% 100,0% 92,5% 85,0% Fig. 5. Dynamics of the main USA and Russian stock indexes (in % to the date 01.11.2009) 02.11.19.11.08.12.25.12.21.01.09.02.26.02.17.03.05.04.22.04.11.05.28.05.16.06.05.07.22.07.10.08.27.08.15.09.04.10.21.10.126.96.36.199.16.12.13.01.FINANCIAL MARKET Corporate News ÎÀÎ “VTB Bank” On January 13, 2011, OAO “VTB Bank” and MICEX have announced a strategic partnership in the development of electronic auctions of government and municipal orders.
NC «Rosneft» On January 14,” Rosneft” and BP have announced a global strategic alliance - a joint venture that will involved in exploration and development of three licensed sites - East Prinovozemelskie -1, -2, -3, and also provides for cooperation on other projects. “Rosneft” will receive 5 per cent of ordinary voting shares of BP in exchange for 9.5 per cent of its shares.
Sberbank of Russia On December 24, 2010 Sberbank has signed a loan agreement for the purposes of trade financing in the amount of USD 250 million with Oversea-Chinese Banking Corporation Limited, Singapore.
On January 25, 2011 the Sberbank of Russia has disclosed its unconsolidated financial results of 2010 without the results of the events after the reporting date under RAS: net profit amounted to RUR 183.6 billion against RUR 21.7 billion in 2009, the bank’s assets grew by 20.3 per cent to RUR 8,547 billion. Russian enterprises were granted more than RUR 4.35 trillion of credits; capital adequacy ratio was at the level of18 percent.
Corporate bonds market The volume of the Russian domestic corporate bonds market (as per nominal value of shares in circulation, denominated in national currency) in January 2010 continued its growth and at the end of the month made RUR 2,848.7 bn, which exceeds the relevant indicator of preceding month by 2.0 per cent1. It is remarkable, that the number of emitters and emissions in circulation, denominated in national currency remained the same as in preceding month: 716 corporate bond issues against 714 at the late-December of the last year, 358 emitters against 357 in the last month. The constancy of the above characteristics at the background of growth in the bond market indicates an increase in the nominal volume of a single issue of bonds on average..There is still one emission of bonds in circulation, denominated in US dollars and one in Japanese yens.
Turnover in secondary trades of the stock market in January has significantly increased as compared with December of the last year, despite the fact that the number of trading days in the analyzed period was less than in the last year. Thus, in the period from December 21 to January 24, the total volume of transactions in the MICEX Stock Exchange amounted to RUR 121.5 billion.
(For comparison, from November 26 to December 20, the volume of transactions was equal to RUR 100.3 billion), approaching the high rate of turnover in October-November of the last year. There were 28.8 thousand of transactions with securities, which is the highest indictor since March (in previous month the number of transactions was 21,000)2.
Index of the Russian corporate bonds market IFX-Cbonds was continuing its growth at the beginning of 2011, having increased from December 23 through January 25 by 2.7 points (by 0.per cent). Average effective yield over the period under review showed a decrease (from 7.51 per cent at the end of December to 7.33 percentage points at the end of January (Fig. 6).Despite the reduction in yield, the rate of portfolio duration of corporate bonds for the month fell down again by 25 days, having returned to the level of March of the last year.
The most liquid bond issues in this period under review demonstrated a declining dynamics of the average weighted yield, having rendered to null the growth of December of the preceding year.
The maximum growth from December 21 to January 24 was recorded for the bonds emissions of the major financial-credit institutions: in particular, the yield of bonds of the “Agency for Housing Mortgage Lending”, Commercial Bank “Petrocommerce” (JSC), “MDM Bank”, “Renaissance Capital” (OOO), OJSC “Bank Zenit”, the Bank “Avangard” (JSC) in some emissions declined by 1 percentage point and more, while in December some of those institutions have become leaders of increasing yield. Bond yields of most other large banking institutions has decreased by 0,3-0,1 As per Rusbonds information 2 As per “ Finmarket”Information agency.
RUSSIAN ECONOMY: TRENDS AND PERSPECTIVES percentage points, while “Rosbank” and “Russian Agricultural Bank” demonstrated growth yield of about 0.2 percentage points in some of their emissionsThe dynamics of bonds yields of the major industrial companies was volatile. Most significantly decreased the yield of bonds of OAO “Gazprom Neft” (series 04 -1.4 percentage points), OAO “Mechel” (series 02 and BO-01 -1 p.p.), OAO “Mosenergo” (Series 02 - 0.9 percentage points), OAO “Lukoil” (Series BO-07 -0.8 percentage points), OAO “Magnitogorsk Iron and Steel Works” (BO-and BO-03 -0.8 p.p. and -0.7 percentage points, respectively), OAO “Gazprom” (Series 08 -0.percentage points), OAO “Russian Railways” (series 08 and 12, - 0.8 percentage points and -0.percentage points, respectively). Herewith, the yield of securities of OAO “Novolipetsk Steel Works” has significantly increased (Series BO-05 0.7 pp).
Among the telecommunications companies there was a sharp decline in the yield of bonds of OAO “North-West Telecom” (ten-year bonds of 06 Series -3.2 percentage points), OAO “VolgaTelecom” (Series 04 -2 percentage points), OAO “Mobile TeleSystems” ( Series 04 -1.1 percentage points).
Herewith, there was an increase in bond yield of the “North-West Telecom” (series 04 - +0.percentage points), OAO “Dalsvyaz” (series 02 - +0.4 percentage points), OAO “Mobile TeleSystems” (Series 01 and 0.2 - + 02 percentage points).
In January this year, there were significantly fewer bond issues as compared with the previous month, which, however, was due to fewer working days in the period under review. Thus, in the period from December 24, 2010 to January 25 this year eight emitters have registered 19 bond issues totaling to RUR 86.1 billion (for comparison, from November 25 to December 23, sixteen emitters have registered 42 issues of bonds amounting to 169.5 billion rubles), and there were 15 exchange bonds issues. The major amount of registered emissions fell on a series of exchange bonds of OAO “Uralkaliy” for the volume of 50 billion rubles and four series of exchange bonds of CB “Loko-Bank “(ZAO) for the total amount of 10 billion rubles. Also of particular note is the new issuer - OAO “Mortgage specialized organization GPB-Mortgage Two”, which has issued two series of mortgage-backed bonds maturing in 2041.