In November, the Russian banking sector’s assets increased by Rb. 765 bln. The main factors propelling the growth in the balance-sheet total were increase in loans banks extended to other credit organizations (up by 11% over the month, or by Rb. 328 bln.) and loans to non-financial organizations (up by 1.6% over the month, or by Rb. 213 bln.). Interestingly, since the beginning of the year the proportion of idle banking assets (cash, fixed capital, use of profits, other assets) has remained stable and even slid from 8.6% in the aggregate volume of assets as of 1 January 2010 to 8.3% as of 1 December 2010. The trend to banks boosting investments to the corporate and government papers was still there. In our reviews, we repetitiously referenced to a substantial increase in the volume of the banking sector’s investment in the bonds: as of 1 December the growth rate made up already 33.7% compared with the beginning of the year (for reference: the corporate credit portfolio posted a 11% growth over the 11 months of the year). During the period in question, the structure of investments in the bonds underwent certain changes: the proportion of investments in T-bonds rose from 8.4% in the beginning of the year to 19.1% as 1 December, while the proportion of investments in the CBR’s bonds climbed up from 8.4% to 23.3%, and the proportion of investments in corporate bonds plummeted from 22.5% to 20.7% (Graph 1). In search for a guaranteed risky-free income, the banking sector vigorously invests free liquidity in government papers, while, being a more liquid and less risky instrument, investments to corporate bonds often form a substitute for loans.
RUSSIAN BANKING SECTOR The growth in the credit portfolio in tandem with a gradual improvement of its quality continues exerting a positive influence on values of key indicators of the national banking system’s turnaround. More specifically, the proportion of delinquencies in loans to non-financial organizations in November slid by 0.3 p. p.
and fixed at the level of 5.6% (vs. 6.1% as of 1 January Source: Bank of Russia 2010). As for loans to private Graph 1. Structure of Banks’ Investments in Bonds, as % individuals, the situation with the quality of the credit portfolio has remained stable for several straight months: in November, the proportion of arrears plunged by 0.1 p.p., while overall since the beginning of the year the arrears increased 0.7 p.p. (6.8% as of 1 January 2010, 7.3% as of 1 December). According to the CBR, in November the share of standard loans (the 1st category of quality) in the Source: Bank of Russia credit portfolio held by the Graph 2. Dynamics of Loans By Categories of Quality in the Credit Portfolio of Top 30 largest banks surged Top 30 Largest Banks, as %.
by 1.3 p.p., while the share of problematic and bad debts (the 4th and 5th categories of quality) sank 0.4 p.p. Meanwhile, the proportion of non-standard loans shrank consistently (-1.2 p.p.), while the share of doubtful loans rose by 0.3 p.p. This fact is an indirect proof to a recent re-classification of a part of the largest banks’ credit portfolio, which is associated with improvement of their’ borrowers financial standing (Graph 2).
As for liabilities, the main factor propelling the November growth of the balance-sheet total became an unprecedented rise of balances on legal entities’ current accounts, which accounted for Rb. 376.5 bln., or19.6% over the month. The rise can be ascribed chiefly to corporations concentrating their funds on banking accounts prior to the upcoming payments of annual staff bonuses and compensations and the traditional December increase in administrative and economic costs.
Private individuals’ deposits surged by Rb. 170 bln. in November, while the banking sector once again posted growth in profits in November. According to the CBR, in November banks grossed Rb.
56 bln., while the aggregate accumulated profit already hit Rb. 495.3 bln., or four times the figure. The main factors fueling the banks’ profits remain cutting rates of growth in expenses on formation of additional loan loss provisions, coupled with a surging accrued income. In November, the volume of the national banking sector’s capital increased by Rb. 32.1 bln. and made up Rb.
4,613.1 bln. The share of profit in the banking sector’s capital rose by 1 p.p. in November, while the H1 rate dropped slightly from 18.4% to 18.2%.
Below, we cite the most significant developments in the banking sector between December and January 2011.
RUSSIAN ECONOMY: TRENDS AND PERSPECTIVES • Since 1 January 2011 the Bank of Russia has lost the right to cap deposit rates. The regulator had had been deprived of this right several years ago, but regained it during the crisis, albeit as a temporary measure effective through the end of 2010.
• In pursuance of consolidation of its Russian assets, Rosbank, one of the Top 30 Russian banks and subsidiary to Societe Generale, acquired the 100% stake in Delta Credit and Rusfinans Bank.
• The CBR proposes to increase requirements to minimum capital for Russian banks up to Rb.
300 mln. since 2015.
• The sale of the Bank of Moscow has become a hot potato in December 2010 - January 2011.
VTB, previously the unrivaled buyer, has now been challenged by Alfa-Bank, which is keen ready to acquire a controlling stake in the Bank of Moscow.
MORTGAGE IN RF MORTGAGE IN RF G.Zadonsky The volume of mortgage loans disbursed over the 11 months of 2010 accounted for Rb. 315.1 bln.
and exceeded 2.5 times the respective 2009 volume. As of 1 December 2012, the average weighted rate of Rb.-denominated mortgage loans plummeted to 12.6%. The proportion of delinquencies continues to grow against residual debt.
50 1,According to the CBR, as of 1 December 40 1,2010, Russian banks disbursed as many 30 1,as 252,072 mortgage loans worth a total 20 of Rb. 315.1 bln., with delinquencies 10 0,accounting for Rb. 1, 105.02 bln. As of December 2009, the amount of disbursed 0 0,mortgages was 2.53 times less than the above figure. The volume of disbursed housing loans as of the same date was Rb. 364.3 bln., or 333,158 loans, with 2009 delinquencies standing at Rb. 1, 270.8 bln.
Volume of mortgage loans disbursed over the month, as Rb.
The month of November 2010 (Graph 1) bln., left axis saw disbursement of mortgage loans worth Delinquencies by disbursed mortgage loans, as Rb. bln., left a total of Rb. 42,25 bln., or up by 8.87% axis Arrears on disbursed loans, as Rb. trln., right axis vs. the prior month’s figures. Mortgage loan delinquencies grew by 2.89% on a Loan debts, as Rb. trln., right axis month-on-month basis in November and Source: CBR accounted for Rb. 44.68 bln. Meanwhile, the proportion of delinquencies in Graph 1. Dynamic of Disbursement of Mortgage Loans residual debt by mortgage loans soared 45,00% by 0.02 p.p. in November both across both 40,00% Rb.- and forex- denominated loans and 35,00% accounted for 2.84% of the residual debt 30,00% by Rb.-denominated loans and 9.98% of 25,00% the respective debt by forex-denominated 20,00% 15,00% loans.
10,00% According to the CBR, in November 5,00% 2010 the proportion of debt by mortgage 0,00% loans less overdue payments in the aggregate amount of the mortgagerelated debt was down by 0.42 p.p. and accounted for 86.29%. The proportion of debt by defaulted loans (with overdue 2009 payments over 180 days) in the overall Share of forex-denominated mortgage loans in the volume amount of mortgage-related arrears slid of disbursed loans, % by 0.07 p.p. and made up 5.65%.
Share of forex-denominated mortgage loans in residual The proportion of forex-denominated debt, % housing loans in the volume of loans Share of delinquencies on forex-denominated mortgage disbursed in November 2010 was 4.38%.
loans in the aggregate amount of delinquencies, % As of 1 December 2010, the proportion Source: CBR of such loans in the residual debt was 16.88% (Graph 2).
Graph 2. Dynamic of Forex-Denominated Mortgage Loans 01.10.01.11.01.12.01.01.01.02.01.03.01.04.01.05.01.06.01.07.01.08.01.09.01.10.01.11.01.12.1.1.184.108.40.206.220.127.116.11.18.104.22.168.22.214.171.124.126.96.36.199.188.8.131.52.184.108.40.206.RUSSIAN ECONOMY: TRENDS AND PERSPECTIVES 17,00 The average weighted rate on Rb.14,denominated mortgage loans extended 16,14 in November 2010 was 12.6%, down by 16,0.1 p.p. vs. the prior month, while the 13,one on Rb.-denominated housing loans 15,disbursed over the same month surged 12,15,00 by 0.2 p.p. compared with the October 2010 figures and accounted for 13.0% 14,50 11,(Graph 3). The average weighted rate on loans refinanced by JSC Housing Mortgage Finance Agency (HMFA) in November 2010 rose by 0.05 p.p. up to 2009 11.78% on a month-on-month basis.
According to Creditmart, in Average weighted loan term by mortgage loans extended during the month, left axis December 2010 the average market Average weighted loan term by housing loans extended during rate on mortgage products surged by the month, left axis 0.15 p.p. and hit 15.34% (vs. 15.19% Average weighted rate of mortgage loans extended during the month, %, right axis in November 2010). Compared with Average weighted rate of housing loans extended during the the December 2010 figures (17.58%), month, %, right axis the decline rate of the average market rate on Rb.-denominated loans made Source: CBR up 2.24 p.p.1. In December 2010 to Graph 3. Average Weighted Terms and Interest Rates on Rb.October 2010 the average market rates Denominated Loans of Rb.-denominated loan offers for house pruchases on the secondary market slid by 0.45 p.p. by their minimal value and by 0.41 p.p. by a maximal one (Table 1) Table AVERAGE MARKET OFFER RATES BY RB.-DENOMINATED LOANS October 2010 November 2010 December Credit product Min Max Min Max Min Max Loan on buying a flat on the secondary housing 12.31% 18.40% 11.86% 17.72% 11.86% 17.99% market Target loan against real estate collaterals 15.18% 20.97% 14.92% 20.68% 14.75% 20.64% Loan on buying housing and land on the second13.06% 19.15% 13.05% 18.75% 13.05% 19.10% ary market Source: Kreditmart data.
Rusipoteka’s data suggest that the most affordable rates at the stage of housing construction are offered by: Sberbank (11.65-14% annualized in Rb. and 11.7-13.7% annualized in forex equivalent), Svyaz-bank (12-12.5% and 11.7-13.7%), Gazprombank (starting from 13% and from 12.5%), Delta Credit (14.75- 16.75% and 13-11%).
By the early December 2010 HMFA had refinanced 200,997 mortgages worth a total Rb. 171.bln. (as of the date of their refinancing). During the three quarters 2010 the Agency refinanced a total of 34,176 mortgages equivalent of Rb. 37.1 bln vs. 28,450 mortgages (Rb. 28.77 bln.) in 2009.
The volume of mortgage loans refinancing commitments contracted by the Agency for the first half of 2011 accounted for Rb. 22.5 bln.
HMFA had completed the government program on restructuring sub-prime lenders’ mortgage loans. All the contracts and agreements between the Agency and the lenders shall remain in effect through the term of a contract. Two years in operation, HMFA restructured 7.500 lenders’ loans worth a total of Rb. 11.7 bln.
1 Calculated by Creditmart analysts on the basis of offers by 25 banks – the largest players on the national mortgage market 220.127.116.11.18.104.22.168.22.214.171.124.126.96.36.199.188.8.131.52.184.108.40.206.220.127.116.11.1.12.ON THE CONCEPT OF SUSTAINED DEVELOPMENT OF RURAL TERRITORIES ON THE CONCEPT OF SUSTAINED DEVELOPMENT OF RURAL TERRITORIES R.Yanbykh With its Resolution of 30.11.2010 №2136-р, the RF Government adopted the Concept for sustained development of rural territories until 2020 (hereinafter referred to as the “Concept”). The Concept failed to establish assessment criteria of efficacy of development of rural areas, size and sources of funding the sustained development of rural territories, and to identify priority measures. This necessitates a broader discussion on the matter.
Adopted by the RF Government in November 2010, the Concept once again compels one to think of whether Russia has a rural development policy.
The term “rural development” has been coined recently with regard to the most advanced nations, while it had originally been used in the economic and sociological literature in respect to aid policies towards the least developed countries wherein the role and specific weight of the agrarian sector was prevalent both in formation of the national income and in utilization of main resources. The problem of rural territories’ development was fairly well substantiated theoretically and had a system of developed aid measures in the frame of leading international organizations on cooperation (such as FAO, the World Bank, OECD, UNESCO, ILO, etc.). In Western Europe, the concept of rural development has been employed since the 1970s, and it has constantly evolved ever since.
It is possible to single out three most frequently debated concepts of this kind1:
1. Sectoral (identification of rural development solely with the general modernization of agriculture and agri-food complex);
2. Equalization concept, which links rural development solely to bridging the gap between the most depressed rural areas and those with more advanced economies;
3. Territorial concept, which identifies rural development with development of rural areas on the whole by means of employment of all the resources at hand in a given area (human, physical, natural, historical, landscape, etc) and integration of all the components and sectors at the local level.
It can be asserted with confidence that until 2000 Russia has been employing the sectoral concept.
At the onset of the new decade, however, alongside the debate on the traditional matter of the rural social development there began to unfold the issue of sustained development of rural territories. So what is understood under the notion of sustained development, as far as rural areas are concerned The 2002 Johannesburg Summit on sustained development defined sustained development through the demand “to root out poverty, change unsustainable models of production, consumption, conservation and rational use of the natural-resource base of economic and social development”2.
The World Bank experts consider main components of a sustained rural development strategy to be “renewal of economic growth in the agrarian complex…, encouragement of private initiative in the non-agricultural sphere of the rural economy…, combat against poverty… and support of local initiatives and self-governance”3.
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