In the first three quarters of 2008 the value of assets in the funded component of the mandatory pension system, less the amount of insurance contributions to the PFR, decreased by 0.3 %. In particular, in the first half-year this index rose by 1.8 % (from 402 to 409 billion rubles), as compared to 2.6 % in the first half-year 2007; while in Q III it fell by 2.1% (see Table 1) 21.
Table Asset value of the funded component of the mandatory pension system, 2007 – 2008 (in billion rubles) Value of assets in which pension savings Date Pension savings transferred to asset managers are invested accumulated in Total including including subtotal IPF in GAM in PAMs 01.01.2007 276.2 267.1 9.2 9.96 286.01.04.2007 270 260.7 9.4 19.85 289.01.07.2007 274.5 265.1 9.4 19.25 293.01.10.2007 340.1 329 11.1 25.55 365.01.01.2008 375.1 362.9 12.2 26.8 401.01.04.2008 360.7 348.7 12.1 42.6 403.01.07.2008 366 353.7 12.3 43.1 409.01.10.2008 360.6 350.05 10.55 39.92 400.Note. The estimations do not include the amount of contributions to the funded component of pension savings in the PFR.
Source: the indices for asset managers reflect their net asset value based on the data published at the PRF’s website (www.pfrf.ru); the indices for IPF demonstrate the amount of pension savings according to the Summery Data on the IPFs’ operation published by the Federal Service for Financial Markets (FSFM) at its website www.fscm.ru The share of the government asset manager (GAM) in the asset value of the funded component of the mandatory pension system, less the amount of insurance contributions to the PFR, during the first three quarters decreased from 90.3 % to 87.4 %. This was mainly due to the switchovers of insured persons from the PFR into IPFs. In this connection, a relevant factor in the third quarter became the GAMs more conservative investment strategy. In conditions of crisis on the financial markets its assets turned out to be better protected, and so the share of GAM in the aggregate assets constituting the funded component of the mandatory pension system increased by one percent point.
Hereinafter, the data published by the PFR and the Federal Service for Financial Markets (FSFM) are applied.
Table The distribution of assets between asset managers and IPFs within the funded component of the mandatory pension system, 2006 – 2008 (as %) 1.1.2006 1.1.2007 1.1.2008 1.7.2008 1.10.Share of assets held by GAM 95.9 93.3 90.3 86.5 87.Share of assets held by PAMs 3.0 3.2 3.0 3.0 2.Share of assets held by IPFs 1.1 3.5 6.7 10.5 10.Total 100 100 100 100 Including the share of PAMs and IPFs 4.1 6.7 9.7 13.5 12.Note. The estimations do not include the amount of contributions to the funded part of pension savings in the PFR.
Source: the indices for asset managers reflect their net asset value as estimated by the data published at the PFR’s website www.pfrf.ru; the indices for IPF show the amount of pension savings according to the Summery Data on the IPFs’ operation published by the Federal Service for Financial Markets (FSFM) at its website www.fscm.ru Investment of pension savings by asset managers The structure of investments made by the GAM and the aggregate investment portfolio of all the PAMs as of the end of Q II and III 2008 is shown in Fig. 1–Investments made by the GAM In the first half-year 2008 the investment portfolio of the GAM, whose functions are performed by Vneshekonombank, was characterized by an increasing overall share of securities (from 88.6 % to 96.6 %) and a declining share of the funds held on accounts at credit institutions (from 9.9 % to 1.%).
Fig. 1. The structure of the investment portfolio of the GAM (Vneshekonombank), as of mid-2008.
In the third quarter there were no significant changes in the structure of the GAMs investment portfolio. We can note an increase in the amount of residuals held on accounts at credit institutions from 1.35 % to 2.8 %, although later, in the fourth quarter, thin index declined to 0.9 %.
The share of investments in government saving bonds (GSO)22 the investment portfolio of the GAM, after having increased by 10 p.p. in the first half-year 2008, became stabilized at the level of %. It should be noted that the acquisition of GSOs is a distinctive feature of the GAMs policy, because no government securities of this type were present in the investment portfolios of PAMs in the Government saving bonds (GSO) are the non-marketable securities issued by the RF Ministry of Finance for institutional investors. The investments in GSO were opened from mid-2007 onwards. There are no such securities in PAMs’ portfolios.
period under consideration. Traditionally, PAMs regard them as insufficiently attractive instruments from the point of view of their rate of return and liquidity. However, the specificity of their recording in accounting documents as non-marketable securities helps the GAM in a situation of crisis to demonstrate lower losses in net asset value by comparison with investments in circulating government securities, which have to be reevaluated according to their market value.
Fig. 2. The structure of the investment portfolio of the GAM (Vneshekonombank), as of end of Q III 2008.
Investments made by PAMs Fig. 3. The structure of the investment portfolios of private asset managers, as of end of Q II 2008.
Fig. 4. The structure of the investment portfolios of private asset managers, as of end of Q III 2008.
MICE10 RTS (USD) Source: MICE, RTS.
Fig. 5. RTS and MICE -10 indices in 2007 – 2008.
In Q III 2008, the drop on the share market amounted to 43 %, as demonstrated by the MICE-10 index23,. The percentage of shares in the aggregate investment portfolio of PAMs during that period amounted to 5.7 percent point. As of the end of Q III 2008, the aggregate investment portfolio of PAMs contained 18.1 % of shares, which means that it began to acquire the features of a very conservative portfolio where more than 80 % of its total asset value was represented by instruments with fixed return rates. In this connection, among the instruments with fixed return rates the highest growth Although this is a more narrow index of the stock market’s dynamics that the main Russian stock exchange indices (RTS and MICE), MICE-10 index, due to its composition, is nevertheless better suited to reflect the changes in prices of those shares in which pension savings can be invested. Besides, in contrast to RTS index, it is estimated on the basis of ruble-denominated prices. However, not all of the companies encompassed by this index are included in the top quotations lists of Russian stock exchanges, and so some of them are not available for investing pension savings in.
29.12.29.01.01.03.01.04.01.05.01.06.01.07.01.08.01.09.01.10.01.11.01.12.01.01.01.02.01.03.01.04.01.05.01.06.01.07.01.08.01.09.01.10.01.11.01.12.was demonstrated by the percentage of „other assets (compare Fig. 3 и 4), their bulk being represented by monies on the accounts with brokers. Thus, the traditional „retreat towards quality of investors, typical of the situation during a developing crisis, took a rather peculiar form – if it was felt at all.
The least risky assets, from the point of view of PAMs, were the monies on the accounts with brokers at credit institutions, and not government securities whose share, although increased by 1.2 p.p., still remained twice as low as its marginal value established by legislation.
Rate of return on investments The rate of return on the pension savings invested by the GAM, as seen by the results of the first half-year 2008, amounted to 4.85 %, which is better than the results of Q I but lower than interest rates on OFZ during the same period (see Fig. 6).
Note. The data on the rates of return achieved by Vneshekonombank are for the periods starting from each year’s beginning, in per annum values.
Source: RF CB, Vneshekonombank Fig. 6. Average weighted interest rates on the OFZ market and the GAM’s rate of return in 2007–2008.
In Q III the net asset value dropped by 1 %, while the rate of return on the pension savings invested by the GAM in the first three quarters amounted to only 2 % per annum.
According to the results of Q III, the investment portfolios of only three PAMs could remain „on the positive side. The losses sustained by the others varied between –2.8 % and –45.5 % per annum. The average index amounted to –17.6 % per annum (relative to the average value of net assets as estimated in accordance with the requirements stipulated in Article 16 of the Federal Law “On investing the funds to finance the funded part of labor pension in the Russian Federation”). However, if taken over a three-year period, the bulk of the investment portfolio managed by the GAM demonstrated a positive rate of return in nominal terms.
The results of investments made by PAMs in Q IV 2008 have nit yet been declared, but considering the fact that the bulk of pension savings is held in trust management by the GAM, one can draw some preliminary conclusions. The assets managed by the GAM shrunk over last year by 19,8 billion rubles, including by 6 billion rubles in Q III; at the same time, during the same period nearly 18 billion rubles was transferred to the PFR, to be transferred further to IPFs and PAMs, as a result of the exercise by insured persons of their right to make a choice of an asset manager or an IPF; meanwhile, the transfer of new contributions from the PFR was halted24.
The financial crisis influenced the funded component of the pension system not only in terms of the negative rate of return on investments observed in 2008. Some problems also appeared in the functioning of the mechanism of transfer of the insurance contributions to the funded part of labor pension from the PFR to IPFs and into the trusteeship management by asset managers. As it was noted by the press, in 2008 the PFR failed to transfer The rate of return demonstrated by the GAM in 2008 was –0,46 % in nominal terms, or –12,1% in real terms. If this index is compared to the results obtained by the pension funds of other countries in the first 10 months of 2008, it can be concluded that the GAMs losses so far have been lower than those suffered by the majority of the OECD members, where the average weighted index of rate of return on investments amounted to approximately –22 %, and in real terms - to – 25%25.
Mortgage Market Trends G. Zadonsky Moody's international rating agency has noted aggravation in the Russian mortgage market and decreased the deposit ratings, nominated in national currency, to the leading mortgage creditors.
Refinancing scope of mortgage credits is being reduced. The State Duma is developing a series of legislative initiatives, addressed at the mortgage creditors' support in the crisis situation.
According to tentative estimates, the volume of mortgages, issued in 2008 by the Sberbank has reached RUR 288.96 billion and RUR 1.273 billion, denominated in foreign currency, which amounted to 35.8 per cent of all credits, provided by the Bank in the form of retail individual credits.
As compared with 2007, the Bank has demonstrated the growth of outstanding mortgage credits by 51.7 per cent, whereas the total number of credits has grown by 18.2 per cent. The next leader in the volume of provided mortgage credits within the year is the VTB Group. Within the year, mortgage credits were issued in the amount of RUR 91.573, what makes 46 per cent of retail credits to physical entities. The growth of the volume of mortgage credits was 47 per cent versus 2007 and 73 per cent against the number of mortgage credits.
Among the top ten banks in 2008, positive developments versus 2007 indicators was observed in performance of Alpha Bank and Societe Generale subsidiary structures, such as Delta-credit, BSGV, insurance contributions to the funded part of labor pension both to IPFs and asset managers. As the main reason, they pointed to the negative dynamics of the prices of OFZ in which the contributions had been invested Private pensions and the 2008 turmoil in financial markets. OECD, 2008.
Bank name 2007,% cottages),% currency, mln.
acquired ones,% Share of outstanding Credits growth versus lenders, RUR mln.
physical entities,% Volume sold mortgage The share of mortgages, The volume of mortgage The volume of mortgage The amount of purchased credits versus 2007,% Share (number) of credits, construction market,% Share (number) of credits, The growth of outstanding loans granted in foreign housing market (houses, granted for the suburban dwellings, rather than the lume of retail loans issued mortgage credits in the voloans issued in rubles, mln.
provided under the existing mortgage credits from other granted in the primary (new) zations or banks), RUR, mln.
credits (to refinancing organiRosbank. Uralsib, CIT Finance, Transkreditbank, Raiffeizenbank, City Mortgage Bank, GPB-Ipoteka, which have reduced the scope of outstanding mortgage credits against 2007. 22 banks from the list of 43 banks, according to preliminary data Rusipoteka, showed negative trends in 2008 against the indicators.
In 2008, the refinancing mortgage scope has been reduced as well. As of February 13, 2009 the Agency for Housing Mortgages Lending (AHM) has refinanced 139 043 mortgage credits totaling to RUR 108 billion 479 million, including RUR 26 billion 427 million in 2008, i.e., only 67 per cent of the refinancing volume of 2007. The second place is taken by VTB, which has increased the amount of purchased credits to 24.6 per cent as compared with 2007, having spent RUR 14 548 million in 2008, and in the third place is GPB-Ipoteka: RUR 9 952 million, or 71,4 per cent of the refinancing volume in 2007.
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