Table Balanced Financial Result of Organizations by Kinds of Financial Activities in 2008, as RUR billion Quarters I II III 2008 IV Total 3998.6 1260 1979.9 1200.9 -442.minerals extraction 872.5 250.9 381.6 304.2 -64.processing industries 1693.7 451.3 775.2 583 -115.electricity, gas and water production and distribution 98.6 75.7 -3.4 -41.9 68.Construction 130.4 14.1 37.9 37.4 wholesale and retail trade 567.8 296.2 401.3 245.1 -374.transportation 286.8 100.9 97.3 97.3 -Communication 286.7 66.3 99.9 90.4 30.operations with real estate, rent and services rendering 292.8 97.1 131.1 19.9 44.Source: Federal State Statistics Service In January 2009 the worsening of the financial situation at the enterprises of the real sector of the economy, which has been observed since October 2008, persisted. The drop of the producers prices over the world and in the country, increase in credit rates in the situation when the extractive and processing industries are strongly dependent on the export has resulted in the slow-down of the production growth rates and the sharp decrease in the enterprises incomes and profitability. On the whole over the economy in 2008 the balanced financial result made 69.6% of the figure of 2007. In the fourth quarter of the previous year the losses in the minerals extraction, processing industries, trade and transportation considerably exceeded the volume of profit.
It should be noted that the situation differs substantially by the kinds of the economic activities. The crisis had the most serious effect on the productions that are oriented to the internal market.
As compared with October 2008 in November 2008 the rates of the decrease of the producers prices reached maximum value of 8.4%, being 7.6% in December 2008 and 2.75 in January of the current year. It was the drop of the industrial production index by 1.8% in January 2009 versus December 2008 and by 0.25 versus January 208 that had the prevailing impact on the results of the financial activity of the processing industries. In contrast, in extractive industries the contraction of the profit was accounted for by the drop of prices of 9.4% versus December 2008 and by 45.8% versus January 2008.
The reduction of the volumes of the industrial production has been observed for the last three months and, according to the Federal State Statistics Service data, is becoming more and more acute.
The output of production of the processing industries decreased by 24.1% in January 2009 versus January 2008, that of electricity, gas and water production and distribution – by 7.0% and of the minerals extraction – by 3.6%.
In January 2009 the production of the primary fuel and energy resources reduced by 7.2% as compared with the corresponding period of the previous year. The volume of oil production decreased by 0.8% on January 2008. Starting with November 2008 it was the steep decrease in investment funds necessary to maintain the current level of oil production and to develop new oil fields that has accompanied the factors of the exhaustion of the exploited oil fields and the insufficient increase in the oil reserves that traditionally account for the decrease in production.
Source: Federal State Statistics Service Fig. 1 Electricity production in 2007–2009, as billion kilowatt-hour In January 2009 gas production made 55.2 billion of cu. m, which is equal to 89.5% of January 2008 and is the lowest figure starting with 2002. The decrease in the gas production volumes was due to the reduction of gas export in January 2009 by 40.7 versus January 2008, as well as by the contraction of the demand at the internal market by 0.8%, including the reduction of demand from the electric power plants by 8.2%, which is connected with the climate conditions.
As a result of 208, the volume of the electricity production made 1037 billion kilowatt-hour, exceeding the level of 2008 by 2.2%. However, starting with November 2008 the negative dynamics ahs been observed for nearly all microindicators. In December 2008 the electricity production made 95.7% of the level of the corresponding period of the previous year, and in January 2009 the reduction of the electricity production persisted and was equal to7.1% versus January 2008 as a result of the swamp in the volumes of the processing industries production that has been unexampled for the last 15 years.
Processing industries, oriented to the external market and to the internal market of the investment goods turned out to be the most vulnerable. The production of chemical goods reduced by nearly 1/in January 2009 versus January 2008, mineral fertilizers production decreasing by 41.7% in connection with the drop in the demand for these goods.
As a result of the change in the situation at the external markets and the contraction of the internal demand a number of timber industry enterprises have stopped production and goods shipment. As a result the volume of the production in timber processing and the production of wooden goods were equal to 66.6% in January 2009 versus the figure of January 2008, and in pulp-and-paper production, publishing and printing activity – to 78.9%.
Under the influence of the reduction of the workload in construction by 16.8% the index of construction materials production reduced made 65.7% in January 2009 as on January 2008, and the index of cement production made 55.7%.
A considerable decrease in the production volumes of the technological metal goods were also accounted for by the contraction of the demand at the internal market and the reduction of the export supplies. The drop of production for the export-oriented metallurgy enterprises was observed throughout the whole 2008. The situation particularly aggravated in the fourth quarter 2008, when the world prices and export supplies reduced nearly by half, internal consumption decreasing simultaneously. In this connection noncompetitive facilities at a number of metallurgy enterprises were stopped. In January 2009 metallurgy production made 67.5% versus January 2008, and the production of finished metal goods – 80.1%.
The demand of the internal market for metals and metal goods from such metal-consuming productions as machine-building, defense, fuel-and-energy, construction complexes cannot compensate the decrease in the export supplies of the metal goods. The index of machinery and equipment production made 54.1%, of transport vehicles and equipment production – 64.0%, of electric, electronic and optic equipment production – 52.9% of the figures of January of the previous year.
The worsening of the economic situation, as well as the decrease in the demand for the services of the railway companies has provoked the reduction in the purchase volumes and the delays in payment for the orders from the OJSC “Russian Railways”, resulting in the reduction of the railway equipment production.
In January 2009 the production of the passenger cars has reduced by 79.7% and of the trucks – by 76.4% as compared with January 2008. It was the sharp decrease in demand, decrease in the incomes of enterprises and population and overproduction of the automotive machinery in 2008 leading to the increase in goods stocks as well as the difficulties of domestic producers concerning obtaining credits for the replenishment of the liquid funds that had a negative impact on the development of the industry.
The reduction in the production of the machinery and equipment is of general nature. Whereas the reduction in the production of the mechanical equipment by 9.3% was accounted for by the length of the production cycle, the decrease in machine tools production by 60.1%, household appliances by 33.2% is connected with the severe financial restrictions on the one hand and the reduction of the investment activity and contraction of the consumer demand on the other. The dynamics of the production of machinery and equipment used in the house and road building was negatively influenced also by the processes of the transformation of the financial flows in the currency accumulations and the sharp outflow of the private capital. Thus, as compared with January 2008 in January 2009 the production of excavators reduced by 94.4%, of tower cranes – by 93.2%, of truck-mounted cranes – by 92.3%, motor graders – by 83%, bulldozers – by 74.1%.
As compared with January of the previous year, in January 2009 the production in the defense complex has reduced by 4.6%, the production of military commodities rising by 2.0%, and the production of the civil commodities decreasing by 10.9%. The increase in the volumes of the production output was observed only in the ship-building industry (by 27.1%) and the industry of conventional armaments (by 1.6%), in other fields there is a considerable reduction in production volumes observed: by 28% in the rocket and space industry, by 29% in the industry of ammunition and special chemistry, by 8.5% in the radio-electronic complex and by 4.4% in the aviation industry.
Contraction of the consumer demand, deficit of liquid funds, necessary for the purchase of the raw materials, high costs of credit resources that were the main factors of the sharp slow-down of the consumer complex in the second half of 2008 were still in effect at the beginning of the current year. In January 2009 the index of sewing and textile industry made 71.9% versus January 2008, leather, leather goods and footwear production – 74.0%, foodstuffs production – 96.4%. Taking into account the fact that over the last three years the share of the domestically produced goods in the structure of the retail trade resources has been reducing continuously, and was equal to approximately 53% in 2008, a sharp drop in the foodstuffs and non-food goods production in the situation when the total volume of import decreased by 40% in January, including the reduction in the supplies of foodstuffs and raw materials for their production by 24.9%, in those of textile goods and footwear – by 2.7%, can have a negative impact on the indices of the retail trade market functioning.
25.20 18.104.22.168.22.214.171.124.8 126.96.36.199.-0.-3.-4.--10.-16 ---21.-24.--26.--28.-30.-32.-33.-34.---45.-47.-2008 Source: Federal State Statistics Service Fig. 2 Growth/Reduction Rates by Kinds of Processing Industries in January 2008 and 2009, as percentage to the corresponding period of the previous year Under the existing trends, according to the forecast of the Ministry for economic development and Trade, in 2009 the decrease in the industrial production may reach 7.4%, and in investments in the fixed assets – 13.2%, the retail trade turnover stabilizing at the level of the previous year. Under such conditions, the GDP will reduce by 2.2% versus 208, and the level of the unemployment will make 7.8% of the economically active population.
Russian Industry in February S. Tsukhlo In the situation when the data of the state statistics are limited and controversial, it is the surveys that are becoming not only the most operative but also the most reliable source of the information on the real situation in the Russian industry. The periodic survey gives enough grounds to conclude that the crisis phenomena in the Russian industry have stabilized. The rates of the demand contraction are continuing to slow-down, the fact that enables the enterprises to decelerate the intensity of the output contraction and in some cases even to increase the output. The price policy of the enterprises has also started changing, many producers refusing to lower prices and getting ready to increase them in the forthcoming months.
Official Statics in January According to the data of the Federal State Statistics Service, in January 2009 the volume of the production lowered by 16% versus January 2008 (in December 2008 the drop being 10.3% versus De Industry, total Other industries Chenistry industry Processing Indusries production production Pulp-and-paper industry production Textile and sewing industry and tobacco Coke and oil products production Transport vehicles and equipment Leather, leather goods and footwear Nonmetal mineral goods prodcution machinery and equipment production Rubber and plastic goods production Timber process and goods production Electric, elkectronic and optic equipment Metallurgy production and finished goods Foodstuffs production, including beverages cember 2007). When compared with December 2008 the output has decreased by 19.9%. The last month of one year and the first month of the following is, however, a tricky period for making observations, since in December the intensity of all economic processes usually increases and in January, in contrast, it dies away. The contemporary crisis processes considerably complicate the task of correction and reasoned interpretation of the official statistics. This resulted in the appearance of two different estimations of the dynamics of the output in January 2009. The Center for Macroeconomic Analysis and Short-term Forecasting, which has been recalculating the data of the Federal state Statistics Service successfully for a long time, has estimated the decrease in January 2008 on January 2009 being 19%, and the reduction in January 2009 on December 2008 after exclusion of the seasonal factor making 7% (the figure of December 2008 being only 0.9%). Thus, at the beginning of the year the crisis in the industry is aggravating, according to the opinion of the CMASTF experts. The other figure of the recession in January on December was worded at the meeting of the State Council in Irkutsk on February, 20. The head of the Ministry for the Economic Development and Trade stated that “upon the exclusion of the seasonality the recession of the industry in January makes 3.5 per cent, and which is lower than in December”. Now it appears as if the recession in industry is slowing down. It seems that the state statistics again does not contribute into understanding the dynamics of the situation in the Russian industry. The analysis of the representative set of the figures of the situation surveys gives much more information to estimate the real state of affaires.
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