All those factors urged volatility in the major global stock market indices. Thus, in February a significant downfall was noted in global indices, as compared with the indicators of the beginning of 2009 (up to by 20 per cent ), though indices of some developing countries have demonstrated growth up to 16 per cent. A similar trend was observed at the end of January 2009. For example, the market indices of developing countries were characterized by both, a decline (basically by 1-7 per cent) and growth (by 2-7 per cent), while in the US and European markets indices were declining in general by 7-11 per cent (See Table 1 and Fig. 5).
Table Dynamics of the global stock indices (as of February 26, 2009) Dynamics Dynamics since Index Ticker Value within the the year month(%)13 beginning(%)MICEX (Russia) MICEXINDEXCF 672,30 9,57 8,RTS (Russia) RTSI 547,55 1,51 -13,Dow Jones Industrial (USA) Average DJI 7 182,08 -11,51 -18,(USA (USA) (USA) NASDAQ Composite (USA) NASD 1 391,47 -6,58 -11,S&P 500 (USA) SPX 752,83 -10,01 -16,FTSE 100 (UK) FTSE 3 915,64 -6,97 -11,DAX-30 (Germany) DAX 3 942,62 -8,88 -18,CAC-40 (France) CAC 2 744,84 -7,12 -14,Swiss Market (Switzerland) SSMI 4 770,78 -11,93 -13,Nikkei-225 (Japan) NIKKEI 7 457,93 -2,92 -15,Bovespa (Brasil) BUSP 38 180,18 -0,86 1,IPC (Mexico) IPC 18 047,16 -7,84 -19,IPSA (Chile) IPSA 2 516,99 0,08 5,Straits Times (Singapore) STI 1 617,44 -4,02 -8,Seoul Composite (South Korea) KS11 1 054,79 -3,53 -6,ISE National-100 (Turky) XU100 24 168,57 -6,94 -10,BSE 30 (India) BSE 8 954,86 3,23 -7,Shanghai Composite (China) SSEC 2 121,25 6,56 16,Morgan Stanley Emerging Markets Free EFM 405,30 -2,09 -11,Index * Versus indices of January 26, Ðèñ. 5.Dynamics of the main USA and Russian stock indexes (in % to the date 01.12.2007) Corporate News ÎÀÎ «VTB Bank» On February 11, in the framework of extended cooperation with domestic airlines VTB OAO Bank has provided to OAO Airlines «Ural Airlines» a documentary credit limit in the amount of RUR 1. Versus index indicator valid on September 27, 2006.
Versus index indicator valid on September 27, 2006.
billion for the 3-year term for the funding of current activities. On February 18, VTB OAO Bank has provided to OAO «KAMAZ» the funds in the amount of RUR 1 billion for the working capital replenishment in the framework of the documentary credit, established for the group of OAO «KAMAZ» in November 2008 in the amount of RUR 7 billion.
On February 26, in the framework of extended cooperation with OAO «Murom Factory of Radiometric Devices» VTB Bank has provided funding of USD 5 million for the one year term to support financial and economic activity.
ÎÀÎ «Gasprom Neft» On February 3, OAO «Gazprom Neft» has completed a the transaction on acquisition of 51 per cent shares in the NIS Serbian company for EURO 400 million in accordance with the terms of the sales contract between OAO «Gazprom Neft» and the Government of the Republic of Serbia, signed on December 24, 2008.
On February 13, OAO «Gazprom Neft» and «Sberbank of Russia» have signed a credit agreement in the amount of USD 724 million for the term of 1,5 years to finance the ongoing activities of the company.
ÎÀÎ «LUKOIL» On February 9, OAO «LUKOIL» has received from «Gazprombank» an unsecured credit amounting to EURO 1 billion at the interest rate of 8 per cent per annum for the term of three years for the corporate purposes, including the provision of credits to OAO «Lukoil» subsidiaries and affiliates, as well as for redemption of previously attracted credits. On February 27, OAO «LUKOIL» has attracted two credits amounting to USD 500 million and RUR 17 billion from «Sberbank of Russia» for the term of 1 year to replenish working capital.
On February 17, OAO «LUKOIL» has paid EURO 852.47 million to the Italian company ERG in the framework of transaction on acquisition of 49 per cent share in the joint venture with ISAB refinery in Sicily management.
ÎÀÎ «Mosenergo» On December 25, OAO «Mosenergo» has disclosed non-audited consolidated interim financial reporting for the 9 months of 2008, developed under IFRS: sales proceeds amounted to RUR 66 million, what exceeds the level of the relevant period of 2007 by RUR 12,915 million (24.29 per cent growth). The net loss amounted to RUR 393 million, what is higher than the indicators of the same period of 2007 to RUR 1 779 million (by 81.91 per cent).
NK «Rosneft» On February 17, NK «Rosneft» and «Transneft» have signed in Beijing with the China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) and the China Bank of Development a package of long-term agreements in the framework of Russian-Chinese energy dialogue, as well as a 20-year contract with CNPC for oil supplies to China in the volume of 15 million tons per year. In addition, NK «Rosneft» has attracted USD 15 billion for the oil supplies to China from the China Bank of Development for years.
«Sberbank of Russia» On January 30 «Sberbank of Russia» has disclosed unconsolidated financial report for 2008, based on RAS: the net income, regardless the events after the balance sheet date amounted to RUR 108.billion. On February 24 «Sberbank of Russia» has disclosed unconsolidated financial reports as of January 2009 in accordance with RAS: the net profit amounted to RUR 3.5 billion.
During February «Sberbank of Russia» has signed credit agreements with several companies: with OOO «Kopeika-Moscow» for the amount of RUR 4 billion for the term of 3 years, with OAO «Akron» agreement to open a credit line for USD 128 million for the term of three years; a contract with ZAO «EUROCEMENT Group» on opening a credit line with a tranche flexible schedule of USD 6 billion rubles for a period of 18 months; with OAO «Gazprom Neft» for the amount of USD million for a term of 1.5 years, a contract for opening a non-revolving credit line amounting to USD 35 million for the term of 5 years with OOO «Tehnoprom»; an agreement on the opening a nonrevolving credit line amounting to RUR 12 billion for the term of 3 years with JSC «Magnitogorsk Metallurgical Works».
Corporate bonds market In February, the volume of the domestic corporate bond market in Russia (as per nominal value of securities in circulation) has fallen down again and made RUR 1648,8 billion,which is by 1,0 per cent lower than the similar indicator of January of the current year. Within the period from January 26 to February 20 of the current year there were concluded by 29.2 thousand of transactions with corporate bonds in MICEX, totaling to RUR 31.2 billion (as compared with 23.0 thousand transactions for the amount of RUR 24.3 bln within December 25 – January 23)15, what is an indicator of the investors activity growth.
After a slight decrease in January, the index of the Russian market corporate IFX-Cbonds has grown to the maximum value, exceeding 9 points (i.e.,by 4.9 per cent) to the maximum value since the beginning of September of the preceding year. Effective bonds yield has demonstrated a rapid slowdon for the first time within the recent 10 months (from 24.28 per cent to 21.41 per cent within the period uder review), though this indicator is still remaining at a high level 9see Fig. 6). The duration of the GKO-OFZ of corporate market portfolio as of February 24 was 509 days, having decreased (by 2 days) as compared with end of January of the current year (FIG. 6).
28 Effective yield Index IFX-Cbonds 0 FIG. 6. Russian corporate securities index and average weighted yield dynamicsIn February the number, as well as the amount of corporate bond issues has increased. In the period from January 27 to February 24 there were recorded 9 issues of corporate bonds, totaling to RUR 120.6 billion, what is 2,5 times more in volume than within the relevant period (from December 25 of preceding year to January 26 of the current year, when there were registered 8 issues for the total amount of RUR 48.000 bln.). However, this indicator is significantly lower than the level of AugustSeptember of the preceding year. The bulk of the registered corporate bond issues was made by seven series of bonds, issued by OAO «Russian Railways» for the total amount of RUR 100 billion and one series of bonds, issued by the “Shareholding Financial Development Company” (OAO), totaling to RUR 20 billion.
In February, the number of placed issues has explicitly reduced. In the period from January 27 to February 24, there was only one debut issue of OOO "RAF-Leasing Finance for the amount of RUR billion of public donations ( within December 25 through January 26 the total amount of the five placements has totaled to RUR 8.1 bln).
As per “Finmarket” Information Agency.
16 As per Cbonds company data.
Effective yield, % Index IFX-Cbonds 24.09.22.10.184.108.40.206.22.01.22.02.24.03.22.04.22.05.23.06.22.07.22.08.24.09.24.10.220.127.116.11.26.01.24.02.Fig. 7.Corporate securities primary placement dynamicsIn February the number of issues, recognized invalid due to non-placement of any security in the period from January 27 through February 24 has decreased. Federal Statistical Service for Financial Markets of Russia has recognized invalid five issues of corporate bonds, offered for public placement (9 placements within the period of December 25 – January 26 December 7)18.
Within January 27 through February 25, as planned before, twelve emitters have redeemed the bonded loans totaling to RUR 17.9 billion, including the bonds of OAO «Rosbank» in the amount of RUR 3 billion and “Unicredit Bank in the amount of RUR 3 billion as well. In February 2009 nineteen issues of corporate bonds for the amount of RUR 26.9 bln is expected.
Like in preceding months, In February, a large number of defaults and delayed performance of obligations (the so-called technical default)19 was noted. In the period from January 27 to February 24, the defaults on offer (redemption of bonds) have been announced by three emitters (nine emitters within the preceding period), on coupon yield - seven emitters (eight companies within the preceding period).
Herewith, one should mention, that all bond issuers have paid there liabilities on time and in the framework of technical default).
Real Economy Sector: Trends and Factors O. Izryadnova The sustention of the unfavorable situation at the monetary and credit market, contraction of the external and internal demand had negative influence on the dynamics of the macroindices. The internal market was considerable influenced by the reduction of the investments in fixed assets by 15.5% in January 2009 vis--vis the level of January 2008 together with the decrease in industrial production by 12.6%, including the drop in processing industries production by 24.1%. The total number of the unemployed (calculated by the methodology of the International Labor Organization) increased by 5.2% in January 2009 versus the previous month, making 6.1 million of people or 8.1% of the economically active population. Despite the decrease in the real disposable incomes of the population by 6.7% in January 2009 as compared with the corresponding period of the previous year as well as the As per Cbonds company data.
Information from Statistical Service for Financial Markets of Russia As per Cbonds data.
reduction of the real wages by 3.2%, the consumer demand has sustained the positive dynamics so far, demonstrating the growth of 102.4%.
According to the estimation of the Ministry for Economic Development and Trade of the Russian Federation, in January 2009 the GDP reduced by 8.2% versus January of the previous year and by 2.4% versus December 2008. The sustention of the unfavorable situation at the monetary and credit market as well as the contraction of the external and internal demand had negative influence on the dynamics of macroindices. As to the export of goods, according to the Ministry for Economic Development and Trade of the Russian Federation, it reduced by 1.7 times in January 2009 as compared with the corresponding month of the previous year.
In January 2009 it was the reduction of the investments in fixed assets by 15.5% versus the level of January 2008, the decrease in the industrial production by 16%, that in the workload in construction – by 16.8%, and in freight turnover by 16.8%, including in railway transportation turnover by 67.8% that had a considerable influence on the internal market.
In the environment of these negative processes it should be specifically noted that in the agriculture the growth of production by 102.6% versus the level of January 2008 was observed. At the same time the increase in the amount of non-payments, worsening of the crediting conditions had a negative effect on the financial indices and resulted in the reconsideration of the production plans and the plans for fulfilling of the investment programs previously outlined.
A sharp drop of the domestic production was accompanied by the decrease in the import volumes by more than 1/3 as compared with January 2008, which also defined the contraction of the internal market of both final and intermediate goods.
Consumer demand has sustained the positive dynamics so far, and versus January 2008 the retail trade turnover has increased by 2.4%, the volume of the paid services rendered to the population – by 0.9%, despite the fact that in January 2009 there was a decrease in the real disposable incomes of the population by 6.7% and in the real wages by 3.2%. Moreover, starting with October 2008 the arrears of wages has been increasing, reaching RUR 6965 million by February 1, 2009. The combination of these factors together with the escalation of the tension at the labor market and the increase in the total number of the unemployed (calculated by the methodology of the International Labor Organization) by 5.2% in January 2009 as compared with the previous month (up to 6.1 million of people or 8.1% of the economically active population of the country) predefines the changes in the social parameters of the economy development in the forthcoming months. In January 2009 the number of the officially registered unemployed went up by 12.2% as compared with the previous month and was equal to 1.708 million of people. As compared with the end of January 2008, the total number of the unemployed in Russia has grown by 23.1%, and of those officially registered – by 10.1%.