The structure of investments The structure of the GAM’s (Vneshekonombank’s) investments and the aggregate investment portfolio of all the PAMs as of the end of the year 2006, as well as of the end of Q III 2007, is shown in Fig. 1-4.
The investments held by the government asset manager In the third quarter, the GAM’s investment portfolio displayed a diminishing total share of securities (from 85.6 % to 82.8 %) and increasing funds on the accounts of credit institutions (from 5.7 % to 11 %). At the same time, the share of investments in government savings bonds (GSB)11 in the GAM’s investment portfolio rose from 25 % to 29.2 %, or to 35 % of the total sum of investments in ruble-denominated government securities.
Monies at credit institutions, in foreign currencies Monies at credit institutions, Other 2,2% in rubles 1,7% RF government securities, 7,7% denominated in foreign currencies 10,0% RF rouble-denominated government securities 78,4% Fig. 1. The structure of the investment portfolio of the government asset manager (Vneshekonombank), as of the end of 2006.
RF government securities, denominated in foreign Monies at credit institutions Other currencies 11,0% 1,4% 4,8% RF rouble-denominated government securities 82,8% Fig. 2. The structure of the investment portfolio of the government asset manager (Vneshekonombank), as of the end of Q III 2007.
Government savings bonds (GSB) are nonmarket securities issued by the Ministry of Finance for institutional investors. Investment in GSB began in mid-2007. PAMs’ portfolios do not contain these securities.
Investments of private asset managers Within the structure of investments held by PAMs, the marked fall in the share of government securities and the increasing share of corporate bonds were quite noticeable. The share of federal debt liabilities diminished from 10.4 % as of the end of 2006 to 5.9 % as of the end of Q III 2007 (see Fig. 5–6). The share of subfederal debt liabilities decreased during the same period from 23 % to 13.8 %. At the same time, the share of corporate bonds in the aggregate investment portfolio of PAMs increased from 21.8 % to 33.8 %.
This change looks quite reasonable in a situation of high volatility on the share market and the low yields of government securities. Indeed, the price index of corporate bonds being traded on the MICE (RCBI-c) had been growing nearly constantly until August 2007, although not at a very high rate (see Fig. 5). At the same time, the liquidity crisis of the summer – autumn 2007 had a negative effect on the prices of corporate bonds.
In August and September, RCBI-c was decreasing, its total growth during Q III being only 4.2 %.
RF government Monies on accounts securities of credit institutions Other Deposits 10,4% 0,8% 5,9% 6,6% Subfederal bonds 23,0% Municipal bonds Bonds of Russian 2,0% economic societies Shares 21,9% 29,4% Fig. 3. The structure of the investment portfolios of private asset managers (PAMs), as of the end of Municipal bonds 1,1% Deposits Other RF government Monies on accounts 7,2% 8,3% securities of credit institutions Subfederal bonds 5,9% 2,0% 13,8% Bonds of Russian economic societies Shares 33,6% 28,2% Fig. 4. The structure of the investment portfolio of private asset managers as of the end of Q III 2007.
Fig. 5. The MICE’s corporate bond index (RCBI-c) The percentage of shares in the aggregate investment portfolio of PAMs was lowest as of the end of Q I 2007 (26.6 %), highest - as of the end of Q II (30 %). As of the end of Q III the percentage of shares amounted to 28.2 %. Over the period under consideration, the dynamics of Russian stock exchange indices was displaying high volatility, which was inevitably reflected in PAMs’ investment policy. However, while in Q I the percentage of shares diminished in the wake of falling indices (see Fig. 5), no such correlation was observed any more in Q III: the percentage of shares was diminishing by the end of Q III by 1.8 p.p. against the backdrop of an unstable but nevertheless visible growth on the Russian share market, as seen by the behavior of the RTS index. However, for the purpose of analyzing the investments of pension savings, MICE10 is a more appropriate index, since it reflects better, due to the specificity of its composition, the dynamics of prices of those shares in which pension savings can be invested. Besides, in contrast to the RTS index, it is computed on the basis of ruble-denominated prices. In the first three quarters of 2007, MICE-10 fell by 2.4 %, followed by the diminishing yields of PAMs’ investment portfolios.
MICE - RTS (USD) Source: MICE, RTS.
Fig. 6. The RTS and MICE – 10 indices in 2007.
29.12.29.01.28.02.29.03.29.04.29.05.29.06.29.07.29.08.29.09.126.96.36.199.188.8.131.52.29.01.28.02.29.03.29.04.29.05.29.06.29.07.29.08.29.09.29.10.184.108.40.206.The structure of the investment portfolios held by PAMs – leaders in the size of managed pension savings – is shown in Table. 2. As seen from this table, the percentage of shares in the investment portfolios of these PAMs was fluctuating, as of the end of Q III, between 24.6 % and 39.6 %. And on the whole, a comparison of the structures of these companies’ investment portfolios has failed to confirm the common assumption that the narrow spectrum of securities in which it is permitted to invest pension savings results in homogenous investment strategies. Three out of five asset managers were not investing in federal debt liabilities, while the share of subfederal bonds in the portfolios varied between от 1.7 % and 22 %. The difference between the highest and the lowest indices of investments in corporate bonds was nearly twofold (25.8 % held by SOLID MANAGEMENT and 47.4 % held by URALSIB).
Table The structure of the investment portfolios held by PAMs - leaders in the size of managed pension savings, as % of assets Asset managers PENSION- SOLID NYI RE- MANAGE- AK BARS Types of assets ROSBANK SERV MENT URALSIB KAPITAL Securities, total 74.5 75.9 76.8 92.5 90. including:
RF government securities 0.0 0.0 9.7 0.0 12. Securities of RF subjects 10.5 22.0 1.7 5.0 17. Municipal bonds 0.0 3.0 0.0 0.8 1. Bonds of Russian economic societies 33.2 26.3 25.8 47.4 33. Shares issued by Russian companies 30.8 24.6 39.6 39.3 25.Monies on accounts at credit institutions 4.1 4.5 0.0 0.0 0.Ruble-denominated deposits at credit institutions 17.5 16.9 8.1 0.0 3.Receivables, including: 3.9 2.7 15.1 7.5 6. funds on special broker accounts 3.0 1.6 14.5 6.4 4. receivables against interest income on bonds 0.9 1.0 0.6 1.1 1. other receivables 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.Total market value of portfolios 100 100 100 100 The rate of return on investments The rate of return on the pension savings invested by the GAM, according to the results of the first three quarters, was at a level approximating that at the end of the year 2006 (see Fig. 7). However, while in and in the first half-year 2007 rate of return on the GAM’s investment portfolio remained at a level higher than that of the rates of return on the Federal Government’s ruble-denominated bonds (OFZ) with maturities of up to one year, but lower than the rates of return on the securities with maturities of more than one year, by the results of the first three quarters of 2007 this index was found to be lower than OFZ’s rate of return, which in August – September was displaying an upward trend. However, by that time, as noted earlier, the main bulk of the GAM’s funds had already been invested in nonmarket GSBs and placed on bank accounts.
For PAMs, Q III turned out to be unlucky in terms of the results of their investing. As already seen at the end of the first half-year, the average rate of return on PAMs’ investment portfolios was 2.9 %, while investment portfolios managed by PAMs in Q III displayed negative results of investing, and only 2 investment portfolios were characterized by rates of return at a level similar to or higher than that of the GAM (those managed by UNIVER-MANAGEMENT and REGION ASSET MANAGEMENT). However, the investment portfolios of these asset managers fell outside of the category of big ones (24.7 and 19.3 million rubles, respectively). The results demonstrated by the leaders in the absolute size of their investment portfolios as of the end of Q III can be seen in Table 3. As shown by the Table, the volatile situation on the stock market was reflected by the investment results achieved by all the leaders. All these asset managers displayed a negative absolute rate of return, while two asset managers in the first half-year and three asset managers in the first three quarters also displayed a negative nominal rate of return. However, over a longer period of three years they all displayed rates of returns higher than the average per annum rate of return on the GAM’s investments achieved during the same period (which amounted to 7.98 % as of mid-2007 and 8.% as of the end of Q III 2007).
% 7,6,5,4,3,1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 2006 yield to maturity 90 days and 1 year yield to maturity more than 1 yea Vneshekonombank’s rate of return Note. The data on Vneshekonombank’s rate of return in 2007 are for the periods from the year’s beginning, per annum.
Source: RF CB, Vneshekonombank.
Fig. 7. Average weighted interest rates on the GKO – OFZ market and the GAM’s rate of return in 2006 - Table The rates of return on investments of PAMs with the most substantial investment portfolios, as of end of September Net asset value Rate of return per annum, Asset manager (NAV) as of end % of Q III 2007, In 9 months of In 12 months In 3 years million rubles UK ROSBANKA 1 656.7 –0.47 9.95 11.PENSIONNYI REZ- 1 322.2 3.94 11.46 17.ERV SOLID MANAGE- 987.2 –3.09 13.83 16.MENT URALSIB UK 946.2 –4.03 9.06 21.AK BARS KAPITAL 923.3 0.51 8.09 10.Factors of value added growth in the industrial sector in E. Astafieva This section presents the results of decomposition, by its extensive and intensive components, of the output growth index (value added of industrial production) in 2007, on the basis of which it becomes possible to estimate growth quality and to forecast further trends of economic development.
One of the approaches to studying the sources of differentiation in the rates of growth pertaining to different types of economic activity consists in decomposing economic growth in order to single out the influence of each specific factors, such as labor input, capital inputs and aggregate factor productivity (AFP),12 on the output growth rate.
In 2007 industry was displaying mounting differences in the structure of value added growth by type of economic activity (Table 1). The growth rate of gross value added (GVA) in the processing industries rose on that observed in 2006 by 3 p.p., while in the sectors of raw materials extraction and the production and distribution of electrical power, gas and water it went down by 1.8 p.p. and 2.9 p.p., respectively.
The rise of GVA’s real volume in the processing sector in 2007 on that in the same period of last year was 7.9% (against 4.9 % in 2006). According to decomposition’s results, in 2007 the reduction in the number of employed at processing enterprises determined the negative input of labor costs to the growth rate of output generated by this type of economic activity, but the absolute value of that input diminished (amounting in 2007 to –6.6 % against –11% in 2006). The value of capital inputs is, on the contrary, positive, which is explained by the high level of investments in this type of economic activity, conducive to a positive rate of fixed assets growth. At the same time, it should be noted that in 2007 the share of output growth rate, determined by changes in capital stocks, decreased to 23.7 % (against 57.5 % in 2006). AFP thus became the most significant output growth factor for enterprises in the processing sector, its input, according to preliminary data, amounting to 82.9 %, although this estimation is, most probably, also biased, since it does not take into account changes in the load on production capacities.
Decomposition of value added growth rate in the industrial sector in 2007 Production and Extraction Processing distribution of of mineral re- Industrial productionindustries electrical power, sources gas and water 2006 2007 2006 2007 2006 2007 2006 GVA 2.1 0.3 4.9 7.9 2.6 -0.3 3.74 4.Factor inputs -0.49 2.04 5.53 1.35 0.62 -1.32 2.06 (3.04) 0.95 (1.30) Labor15 -0.09 -0.55 -0.54 -0.52 0.26 -1.60 -0.36 (-0.31) -0.57 (-0.64) Number of em-0.23 -0.61 -0.75 -0.66 0.13 -0.85 -0.54 (-0.49) -0.61 (-0.67) ployed Actual working time (per em- 0.14 0.06 0.21 0.14 0.13 -0.75 0.18 (0.18) 0.05 (0.03) ployee) Capital -0.40 2.59 6.07 1.87 0.36 0.28 2.42 (3.36) 1.51 (1.94) Volume of fixed 4.36 2.59 2.82 1.87 0.36 0.28 2.38 (3.08) 1.51 (1.94) assetsLoad on capacities -4.76 - 3.25 - 0.00 0.00 0.04 (0.28) - AFP17 2.59 -1.74 -0.63 6.55 1.98 1.02 1.69 (0.70) 3.70 (3.35) This methodology is described in the IET’s study “Faktory ekonomicheskogo rosta” [Factors of Economic Growth], series “Nauchnye trudy” [“Scientific Works”], No 70, IET, M. 2003, 390 P., www.iet.ru. According to this methodology, the estimation of factor inputs incorporates changes in accumulated (accumulated volumes of) factors and changes in the intensity of their use (load on production capacities, average working day). AFP is understood as a residual value unexplained by the main factors – labor and capital, which is characteristic of the influence of progress in science and technologies, innovations, more efficient production organization, management quality, and changes in pricing policies.
Preliminary estimation The estimations in respect of industrial production are based on aggregation of initial estimated indices by type of economic activity (in brackets, the result of decomposition obtained by pooling the estimations of growth structure by type of economic activity is shown).
The estimation of the growth rate of the number of employed in the industrial sector is based on the data concerning the numbers of newly filled posts in January – November 2007, and on the assumption of the existence of a constant ratio between the numbers of employed by type of economic activity and the number of newly filled posts. The preliminary estimation of the growth rate of one worker’s annual working time in the industrial sector is based on the data of the first 9 months of the year 2007.
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