FIG. Dynamics of the Russian Blue Chips from January 29 to February 28, 20,00% 16,00% 12,00% 8,00% 4,00% 0,00% -4,00% -8,00% -12,00% Change in price (%) In February the MICEX turnover leaders were: “Gazprom”(32.8 per cent), “Nornickel” (22.2 per cent), “LUKOIL” (9.7 per cent), “Sberbank of Russia” (8.85 per cent) and “RAO UES of Russia” (8.79 per cent).
Total share of transactions with the above companies’ equities (“blue chips”) made 91.3 per cent of gross turnover in the classical MICEX stock market in the period over January 29 – February 28.
In terms of capitalization, as of February 28, the top five leaders of the domestic stock market were: “Gazprom” ”(RUR 7 403.7 bln), “Sberbank of Russia” Russia (RUR 2 068.0 bln), “Rosneft” (1 928.9 bln), “LUKOIL” (RUR 1 537.5 bln), “RAO UES of Russia” (RUR 1 163.7 bln).
Futures and options market In February 2008 the investors’ activity in the MICES futures and options market has somewhat decreased (over 20 per cent) as compared with the preceding month. Thus, in that period the total turnover in the MICEX futures market amounted to approximately RUR 196.18 bln (708 transactions, 7.5 mln of contracts) against about RUR 253.25 bln (513 transactions, 10.2 mln of contracts) in January 2008.
An adverse situation was observed in the RTS futures market, where the investors’ activity in February has expressly increased (nearly by 30 per cent) as compared with the preceding month. Thus, in the period from January 29, 2008 through February 28, 2008, the total turnover in the RTS futures and options market amounted to approximately RUR 1 238.7 bln (2200 thousand of transactions, 21.1 mln of contracts) against about RUR 954.6 bln (1449 thousand of transactions, 15.5 mln of contracts) in December.
The greatest demand, as before, was for futures: the volume of trading in futures in the period under review was RUR 1 041.2 bln (2 142 thousand of transactions, 17.4 mln of contracts). Options enjoyed a far lower demand, with the volume of trading at about RUR 24.9 bln (58 thousand of transactions and 3.7 mln LUKoil Tatneft Rosneft Gazprom Russia Mosenergo Rostelecom Sberbank of Gazprom neft GMK NotNikel Surgutneftegas RAO UES Russia of contracts). The highest level of trading in the RTS futures market was RUR 83.2 bln (as of February 12), the lowest level was RUR 38.5 bln (as of February18).
Corporate bond market In February there was noted a decline in quotations of securities, traded in the corporate debt market. The negative factor was a wait-and-see attitude of investors in the market.. However, though the number of placed issues amounted to 14 (against 2 in January), an explicit decline in investors’ activity was noted over the month (practically twice lower as compared with preceding month).
From January 28, 2008 through February 22, 2008 the price index of corporate bonds, traded on MICEXhas decreased by 0.61 points (by 0.56 per cent), as well as the index of the ten most liquid corporate bonds, which downgraded by 1.39 points (- 1.19 per cent) (see Fig. 5). Within that period the total turnover in MICEX corporate bond sector amounted to RUR 47.96 bln with an average daily turnover of RUR 2.40 bln (about RUR 85.5 bln with an average daily turnover of RUR 4.58 bln in the relevant period of January), what demonstrated an explicit downward trend in the investors’ activity within the month.
FIG. Dynamics of corporate bond indices 122,ZETBI-Corp ZETBI-Corp120,118,116,114,112,110,108,External factors behind Russian stock market dynamics In February the Russian financial market dynamics was dependant on the situation in the world financial markets, characterized by a mitigated negative trend upon an explicit downward trend in external financial markets, observed in January. As a result, an explicit decline in the stock market and global stock indices, provoked by the negative news on financial performance of the top global financial companies, as well as the new signs of recession in the US economy, was replaced by some growth of indices and greater activity of investors in the stock market. Additional positive factor for the Russian stock market was oil prices growth in the world market in mid-February (which has exceeded USD 100 per barrel). The oil prices growth was urged by further USD downgrading, investors’ fears of expected fuel supplies from Venezuela and Nigeria, as well as a fire in one of Texas refineries and cold season in the United States.
Therefore, despite the downfall of the majority of the global indices in February as compared with the indicators of the beginning of 2008, there was observed some growth of the basic world stock indices in February against the indicators of the end of January 2008 (see Table 1 and Fig. 6).
The calculation was based on indices of corporate bonds traded on MICEX. The indices were produced by the Zenit bank.
01.12.19.12.12.01.31.01.16.02.09.03.27.03.12.04.28.04.18.05.05.06.22.06.10.07.26.07.13.08.29.08.14.09.02.10.18.10.06.11.188.8.131.52.26.12.22.01.08.02.Table Dynamics of international stock market indices Dynamics Dynamics since Data as of February 28, 2008. Ticker Value within the the year beginmonth(%)* ning(%) MICEX (Russia) MICEXINDEXCF 1 689,50 3,31 –10,RTS (Russia) RTSI 2 081,51 5,20 –9,Dow Jones Industrial (USA) Average DJI 12 582,18 1,60 –5,(USA (USA) (USA) NASDAQ Composite (USA) NASD 2 331,57 –0,78 –12,S&P 500 (USA) SPX 1 367,68 1,01 –6,FTSE 100 (UK) FTSE 5 965,70 3,05 –7,DAX-30 (Germany) DAX 6 862,52 0,64 –14,CAC-40 (France) CAC 4 865,23 0,35 –13,Swiss Market (Switzerland) SSMI 7 662,95 1,07 –12,Nikkei-225 (Japan) NIKKEI 13 925,51 6,40 –9,Bovespa (Brasil) BUSP 65 555,08 11,88 2,IPC (Mexico) IPC 29 962,88 12,16 1,IPSA (Chile) IPSA 2 903,75 9,22 –4,Straits Times (Singapore) STI 3 074,15 –2,70 –11,Seoul Composite (South Korea) KS1 736,17 6,70 –8,ISE National-100 (Turky) XU100 45 823,30 4,84 –17,Morgan Stanley Emerging Markets Free EFM 964,59 9,33 –3,Index Note.
Versus indices, valid on January 28, 2008.
FIG. Dynamics of the main USA and Russian stock indexes (in % to the date 01.12.2006) 140,00% Dow Jones Industrial Average 130,00% NASDAQ Composite The MICEX Index The RTS Index 120,00% 110,00% 100,00% 90,00% 01.12.19.12.08.01.24.01.09.02.27.02.15.03.02.04.18.04.03.05.21.05.06.06.21.06.09.07.25.07.10.08.28.08.13.09.01.10.17.10.02.11.20.11.06.12.24.12.10.01.28.01.13.02.Corporate News ÎÀÎ «Gazprom» On February 15, 2008 ÎÀÎ «Gazprom» has disclosed brief consolidated intermediary financial reporting for the nine months of 2007, developed in accordance with the IAS 34 “Intermediary financial report” IAS 34. Over the nine months of 2007 sales proceeds (after excise, VAT and customs duties) have grown by RUR 78 741 mln, or by 5 per cent as compared with the relevant period of 2006 and accounted to RUR 660 069 mln. The profit of "Gazprom" shareholders for nine months of 2007 amounted to RUR 426 million, what is by RUR 16 028 million, or 4 per cent less than in the relevant period of 2006. During the first six months of 2007, OAO "Gazprom" has acquired an equity in "Sakhalin Energy Investment Company Ltd." in the amount of 50 per cent plus one share for RUR 192 330 million. (USD 7 450 million). Moreover, OAO "Gazprom" has increased the equity in OAO "Mosenergo" up to the control package.
In addition, on February 21, 2008 OAO "Gazprom", “Total” and “StatoilHydro” have signed an agreement on establishment of a targeted company Shtokman Development AG for implementation of the first phase of Shtokmanovskoye field development. According to the document, OAO "Gazprom" share in Shtokman Development amounted to 51 per cent, Total holds 25 per cent, StatoilHydro has 24 per cent. The company is registered in Switzerland.
ÎÀÎ «Gazprom Neft» In 2007, OAO “Gazprom Neft", managed to stabilize oil production. As of results of the end of last year, the company has produced 32.7 million tons of oil, which corresponds to the indicators of 2006. Moreover, in late 2007, OAO “Gazprom Oil" has completed the transaction on acquisition of 50 per sent equity in OAO "Tomskneft" with an annual oil production, exceeding 11 million tons.
ÎÀÎ «LUKOIL» In 2007, the total production of hydrocarbons of OAO "Lukoil" (including upstream volume of subsidiaries and related businesses) amounted to 2181 mln barrels of oil per day, what exceeds the level of 2006 by 36 thousand barrels per day. Oil refinery volume, performed by domestic capacities, has been increased by 7.7 per cent and reached 42.548 million tons In February, OAO "LUKOIL" and OAO "Gazprom Neft" started joint activity on fuelling aircrafts at Pulkovo airport.
OAO "LUKOIL" has also completed the transaction on acquisition of 100 per cent of the shares of ZAO "Association of socio-economic, scientific and business cooperation "GRAND" and 100 per cent of shares of OOO "Mega-Oil-M", the assets of which include 122 fuel stations, located in Moscow and the Moscow region, as well as 26 fuel stations in Pskov, Kaluga, Novgorod and Rostov areas. The estimated volume of sales in those fuel stations exceeds 300 thousand tons per year.
RÀÎ «UES of Russia» On February 11, 2008 the sale of a 49 per cent share in OAO "Kostroma Sales Company", owned by RAO “UES of Russia" was made. The transaction price was RUR 150 million. The purchase was made by "TK Altair”.
On February 28, 2008 there was held an open auction for the sale of 14.17 per cent of OAO "Novosibirskenergo", owned by RAO “UES of Russia" for the amount of RUR 3.4 billion.
NÊ «Rosneft» NK “Rosneft” has received a syndicated credit in the amount of USD 3 billion from a group of international banks. The credit is provided for the period of 5 years at the rate of LIBOR +0.95 per cent and secured with export contracts for oil sales.
ÎÀÎ «Rostelecom» On February 8, 2008 the Interregional Tax Office ¹ 7 of the Federal Tax Service of Russia has defined the amount of tax claims against OAO "Rostelecom" for performance in 2004-2006, which amounted to RUR 1812 billion. RUR 1.412 billion rubles of that amount account to taxes and RUR 0.4 billion are fines and penalties. OAO “Rostelecom" does not agree with the conclusions of the Interregional tax office ¹ 7 of the FTS of Russia and is going to defend the company rights in court and, perhaps, with the help of administrative measures.
In February, OAO "Rostelecom" Board of Directors decided to sell the package of shares in "Golden Telecom" in the amount of 11 per cent to Lillian Acquisition company.
«Sberbank of Russia» Sberbank of Russia and OAO "Federal Hydro Company" (OAO "HydroOGK") entered on February 1, 2008 into general agreement on cooperation in development of the power engineering industry.
ÎÀÎ «Tatneft» In January 2008, OAO "Tatneft" oil and gas businesses have extracted 2 206 381 tons of oil, what made 104.2 per cent of the plan, drilled 55.3 thousand meters of oil wells, restored 743 wells and performed overhaul in 187 wells.
Investment of pension savings in the system of mandatory pension insurance in the first three quarters L. Mikhailov, L. Sychiova The reserves within the funded component of the mandatory pension system are evolving at a very dynamic rate, which is natural for an early phase of the system’s development. The highest growth rate of pension savings was observed in independent pension funds (IPF). In the government asset manager’s (Vneshekonombank’s) investment portfolio the share of securities was diminishing, while the funds on the accounts of credit institutions were increasing. In the structure of investments held by private asset managers (PAM), a diminishing share of government securities and a simultaneously increasing share of corporate bonds have been very noticeable. The rate of return displayed by the leading PAMs in Q III 2007 became markedly lower.
In the first three quarters of 2007, the value of assets in the mandatory funded pension system, less the value of insurance contributions in the Pension Fund of the Russian Federation (PFR), increased by 27.8 % (from 286 to 366 billion rubles – see Table 1)10.
Table Value of assets in the mandatory funded pension system, billion rubles.
01.01.2007 01.04.2007 01.07.2007 01.10.Value of net assets in which pension savings transferred to asset managers 276.2 270 274.5 340.were invested including government asset manager 267.1 260.7 265.1 11. including private asset managers 9.2 9.4 9.Pension savings held by independent 9.96 19.85 19.25 25.pension funds (IPF) Total 286.2 289.85 293.75 365.The most dynamic growth of pension savings was observed in IPFs. As a result, as of the end of Q III, the IPF responsible for mandatory pension insurance accounted for 7% of the total size of assets managed by the government asset manager (GAM), private asset managers (PAM), and IPF. The total share of pension savings invested by PAMs and held by IPFs by the end of Q III 2007 amounted to 10 % against 6.7 % at the year’s beginning.
By the end of the third quarter, the market value of assets in which pension savings were invested by GAM reached 329 billion rubles, mainly due to the seasonal transfer of contributions to the funded component of labor pension from the PFR. Total growth in the value of GAM’s assets in Q III amounted to 63.billion rubles, of which net inflow of funds from the PFR was 59.9 billion. rubles.
Among the IPF involved in mandatory pension insurance, their leader – the IPF “Blagosostoianie” – holds 27.8 % of pension savings, followed by the IPF “Lukoil-Garant” (15.7 %). The aggregate share of the 5 biggest attracted shares of pension savings in IPF as of the end of Q III 2007 amounted to 63.3 %. At the same time, the total amount of pension savings has so far been only 5.8 % of the total sum of pension reserves (funds of attracted IPF within the framework of voluntary pension system). But there have already appeared some funds “specializing” on mandatory pension insurance. Thus, in the IPF “Bolshoi NPF”, which occupies the 4th place, the sum of pension savings is by 12.7 times larger than that of pension reserves; in the IPF “Rus” – by 6.2 times.
Hereinafter, the data from the official websites of the PF Pension Fund and the Federal Service for Financial Markets (FSFM) are applied.
Approximately a half of the pension savings transferred to PAMs by way of trust management is concentrated within 5 companies (53% as of the end of Q III 2007). The two leaders – the AM Rosbank and the AM “Pensionnyi reserv” – held 15 % and 12 %, respectively, of the total sum of pension savings transferred to PAMs for trust management.