The growth of the scale of final consumption occurred in the environment of quite a steady ratio between households’ consumption and the volume of social transfers they receive from the government institutions and non-commercial organizations. In 2007 the share of expenditures for final consumption was 65.8% in the structure of the GDP use, exceeding by 0.3 p.p. the last year’s figure, which was mainly due to the increase in expenditures for social commitments fulfillment (table 2).
Table Structure of the Gross Domestic Product Usage in 2001-2007, as percentage to the total 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 Grow domestic product 100 100 100 100 100 100 Of which:
Expenditures for final consumption 65.8 68.9 68.1 66.9 66.2 65.5 65.Including:
Households 48.3 50.0 49.4 49.3 49.0 47.9 47.Governmental institutions 16.4 17.7 17.6 16.7 16.6 17.0 17.Gross saving 21.9 20.1 20.8 20.9 20.1 21.3 24.Net goods and services export 12.7 10.8 11.3 12.2 13.7 12.7 8.Source: Federal State Statistics Service It was the anticipating growth of the wages as compared with other sources of income that had a prevailing influence on the dynamics of the households’ final consumption. In 2007 real accrued wages rose by 16.2%, as compared with 13.3% increase in 2006, real accrued pensions – by 3.8% against 5.1% in 2006 – the fact that defined more reserved growth rates of population’s real disposable incomes – 10.1% against 13.3% in 2006.
It should be noted at the same time that in 2007 the share of labor remuneration in the GDP was considerably below the figures during an acute crisis of the Russian economy in 1994-1998 (fig.1).
1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 36,7 44,5 49,3 45,2 49,6 50 47,6 42,3 41,3 43 46,7 47,1 46 43,8 44,1 44,Employees' labor remuneration, including hidden wages Fig. 1. Share of Employees’ Labor Remuneration in the GDP in 1992-2007, as percentage to the total Level and proportion of employees’ labor remuneration in the GDP structure have a prevailing influence on social parameters, including labor market. In the structure of the occupied population, only 8% account for those not working on hire, these are employers, who recruit employees for their own enterprises, and self-employed workers. Correspondingly, this defined the peculiar features of population’s incomes and GDP structure formation. 70.3% of the population’s incomes accounts for employees’ labor remuneration, 16.7% - for incomes from property and business, 11.0% - for social payments.
High differentiation of wages by kinds of economic activities sustained in 2005-2007. In the industry the extent of wages differentiation was defined by the increase of the gap between extractive and processing industries. Nominal accrued wages in the minerals extraction exceeded the average throughout the economy by 210%, and in fossil fuels extraction – by 250%. In the processing industry the wages were equal to 97% of the average throughout the economy and 42% of the figure for processing industries. Exceeding of the average figure for wages in the economy was observed in activities connected with oil products output and fossil fuels transportation by 230 and 220%, correspondingly. In the spheres of education and health care the wages were equal to 75–77% of the average throughout the economy, in governmental management and national safety security - to 120% of the average, and in finance – to 260%.
Differentiation of the labor remuneration was accompanied by redistribution of labor resources towards high profitable sectors of the economy and evolvement of specialists and qualified workers shortage in the majority of processing industries, which was the factor that restricted development, diversification and increase in efficiency of the economy.
Trend for the demand in labor force growth was characteristic for 2001-2007. Average annual number of those occupied in the economy was, according to the preliminary data, 70.5 mln of people and increased by 2.4% as compared with the previous year. It should be noted that change in the demand for the labor force was also defined by the increase in the employment in the sphere of market services. Formation of this trend at the first stage of the economic growth recovery had a strong positive impact on the living standard and promotes rates acceleration of services sector development.
In last four years decrease in the average year number of the industrial and production staff was observed in nearly all branches of industry, the process being especially intensive in the processing industries. As compared with 2004, in 2006 the number of those employed at the processing industry enterprises reduced by 532 thousand of people, and at the minerals extraction enterprises – by 52 thousand.
Table Dynamics of the Labor Efficiency, as percentage to the previous year 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007* Economy – as a whole 107.0 106.5 105.5 106.0 106. By kinds of economic activity:
Agriculture, hunting and forestry 106.0 103.6 102.4 104.1 105. Fishery and fish-breeding 102.1 104.3 100.1 111.2 Н/д 102. Minerals extraction 109.2 107.3 106.2 102.109. Processing industries 108.8 106.3 107.1 105. Electricity, gas and water production 100.and distribution 103.7 100.4 103.7 102. Construction 114.105.3 106.9 105.9 113. Wholesale and retail trade; mending of motor-vehicles, motorcycles, household appliances and items of private use 109.8 110.5 105.1 106.9 No data Hotels and restaurants 100.3 103.1 106.5 109.5 No data Transportation and communication 107.5 108.7 102.1 107.9 No data Real estate operations, rent and service rendering 102.5 101.3 112.7 104.8 No data * preliminary data Source: Federal State Statistics Service Comparison of the real wages dynamics and labor efficiency in the economy, calculated on the basis of the System of National Accounts data and labor resources balance, demonstrates that in 2007 real wages restored at the level of pre-reform 1991, labor efficiency growing by 18.2% (fig. 2). Labor efficiency in the industry reached the level of 1991 in 2002, and in 2007, according to the preliminary estimations exceeded the pre-reform level by 40%. Increase in labor efficiency occurred in the environment of reduction of both the number of the employed and the working time.
1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 Real wages Labor efficiency Fig. 2. Change in the Dynamics of Labor Efficiency and Real Accrued Wages in 1992-2007, as percentage to 1991 figures In 2000-2001 the economy faced the obstacles for the economic growth that were accounted for by the low level of consumption. Growth of the nominal and real wages in the following period was one of the factors inducing change in the work motivation. On the whole, the main source of real wages growth rates acceleration as compared with the labor efficiency is the dynamic growth of the labor remuneration in the sector of nontrading goods, and in the first place, in the sector of services.
Disproportions evolving in the labor market apparently require taking steps in two major directions. First task is to secure balanced growth of processing and extractive industries and services sector, taking into account the general trend for anticipating growth of services sector in the developed countries. Second – it is necessary to fulfill a number of measures to reduce the deficit of the staff of workers, which should involve both the measures to provide training of this personnel and to stimulate their employment according to the profession acquired and the measures to attract labor force of the necessary qualification form other countries.
Trends that have been formed in recent years defined the nature of the economic dynamics at the beginning of 2008 (table 4). Some slow-down of growth rates in January of the current year is accounted for by exceptionally high basis of 2007. In January 2008 industrial production index was equal to 104.8%, in processing industries – to 104.6% and in minerals extraction – to 100.6%. The beginning of the year has been characterized by the sustention of the trend of investments in the fixed assets dynamic growth (119.0%) and retail trade turnover (114.1%).
Table Dynamics of the Main Economic Indices in January 2005-2008, as percentage to the corresponding period 2005 2006 2007 108.4 104.Industrial production index 101.6 104.Minerals extraction index 102.9 100.9 104.2 100.117.3 104.Processing industries index 102.1 104.102.6 103.Agriculture production index 99.8 101.Retail trade turnover 109.3 110.8 113.8 114.Investments in the fixed assets 105.4 103.6 126.9 119.108.1 112.Real disposable monetary incomes 89.7 105.117.7 115.Real wages 108.9 110.Source: Federal State Statistics Service Investments in the Fixed Assets O. Izryadnova In 2007 the government investments to fulfill federal targeted investment program (FTIP) increased by 58.9% in fixed prices as compared with 2006. The proportion of expenditures for FTIP financing in the GDP in 2007 was equal to 1.77% and exceeded the level of the previous year by 0.4 p.p.
In 2007 the volume of funds envisaged to be allocated to finance FTIP construction sights and objects was reconsidered three times, budget allotments having been increased both for program and for non-program part. Budget assignments for FTIP program part were equal to RUR 360.6 bln, for non-program part – to RUR 223.2 bln. The volume of the government defense order included in FTIP program and non-program parts was RUR 101.5 bln or 17.4% of the total limit.
As a result, government investments for FTIP fulfillment increased by 58.9% in 2007 as compared with 2006 in the prices of the corresponding years. The proportion of the expenditures for FTIP financing in the GDP was equal to 1.77%, exceeding by 0.4 p.p. the level of the previous year.
Table Proportion of Expenditures for the Federal Targeted Investment Program in 2004-2007, as percentage to the GDP 2004 2005 2006 2007* FTIP- total 0.47 1.17 1.37 1.Program part 0.27 0.85 0.87 1.Non-program part 0.21 0.32 0.50 0.Source: calculated on the basis of Federal State Statistics Service and Ministry for Trade and Economic Development data In concordance with the priorities for the government investments the funds were directed to modernize and develop strategically important for the country objects of production infrastructure, to fulfill investment projects of application of modern technologies to produce competitive goods at the enterprises of the machine-building industry and to conduct works to secure safety of the power, transportation, forestry and water industry objects.
Government investments from the budget were carried out through Investment Fund, Federal Targeted Investment Program and Federal Target Programs (FTP). Investments for different social, economic and industrial programs, recognized as priority ones, were directed through FTPs. In 2007 the number of target programs and subprograms financed from the federal budget decreased. This allowed the budgets to be concentrated on the main directions of social and economic development of the country. Construction of individual objects both necessary for FTP fulfillment and non-program ones was financed through FTIP.
Over January-December 2007 the government customers spent RUR 401.8 bln of investments from all sources of financing, or 99.3% of the total volume of allocated funds by all sources of financing.
Table Use of Investments from all the Sources to Finance Objects Envisaged by the Targeted Investment Program in 2007, as RUR millions Investment from all the sources of Government Investment Limit financing used of which from the total of which from the total federal budget federal budget Total 622,4 466,6 401,8 316,including:
Construction complex 0,4 0,4 0,4 0,Transportation complex 295,6 190,7 198,0 147,Agriculture complex 10,6 9,9 8,2 7,Special complex 44,4 29,6 24,0 21,Social complex 246,9 217,5 152,4 126,Other objects 24,4 18,6 18,7 13,Not taking into account construction sights and objects, included in the government defense order Source: Federal State Statistics Service The financing from the yearly limit for government investments of FTIP construction sights and objects that are being monitored by the Federal State Statistics Service was RUR 316.8 bln or 67.9% of the yearly limit. The level of industrial complexes financing is within average figures. The yearly limit for government investments in the social complex was financed considerably less than in the construction sights and objects.
68,industrial complex 77,61,social complex 54,special complex 72,0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 used as percentage of the yearly limit financed as percentage of the yealy limit Source: Federal State Statistics Service Fig. 1. Financing Level of the Government Investments Use in 2007, as percentage of the yearly limit Nearly three quarters of investments volume in 2007 fall for Central, North-West and South Federal Okrugs.
Table Some Parameters of Federal Targeted Investment Program’s Objects Financing in 2007 Broken by the Federal Okrugs, as RUR bln Federal okrug Investments limit Government Really used at the expense of all according to FTIP investments limit sources of financing from all sources as percentage from the yearly limit Central 249.6 157.9 115.4 46.North-Western 86.9 76.9 80.0 92.Southern 121.8 104.1 71.7 58.Privolzhski 55.2 43.2 49.3 89.Ural 19.0 14.2 15.1 79.Siberian 42.3 36.1 28.3 66.Far Eastern 47.8 34.2 42.1 88.Source: Federal State Statistics Service and Ministry for Trade and Economic Development Comparison of the level of the funds usage by construction sights and objects for federal government needs demonstrates that the figure above the average throughout Russia is registered in North-Western, Far Eastern, Privolzhski, Ural and Siberian federal okrugs, Central and Southern federal okrugs’ figures being considerably less in 2007.
The highest level of funds usage that was envisaged for FTIP construction sights and objects financing was observed in North-Western, Fart Eastern and Privolzhski okrugs. The level of government investments usage in Central and Southern federal okrugs was substantially below the average level throughout the country and was equal to 46.2% of the yearly limit; in the Siberian federal okrug the figure was approximately equal to the all-Russian average.
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