Table Structure of the GDP Produced broken by kinds of Economic Activity in 2004- 2006г,in % to current prices Economic activity 2004 2005 2006*) Gross domestic product 100 100 Agriculture, hunting and forestry 4,99 4,44 3,Fishing, fish-breeding 0,37 0,32 0,Minerals extraction 8,37 9,58 8,Processing industry 15,76 16,51 16,Production and distribution of electricity, gas and water 3,32 2,91 2,Construction 5,06 4,78 5,Wholesale and retail trade; vehicles, motorcycles, household appliances and articles of private use service 17,83 16,73 16,Hotels and restaurants 0,83 0,79 0,Transport and communications 9,75 8,80 8,Financial activity 3,00 3,44 3,Real estate operations, rent and service provision 8,34 8,46 8,Government administration and military safety security; essential social security 4,71 4,44 4,Education 2,35 2,29 2,Public health service and social service provision 2,78 2,69 2,Provision of other utilities, social and personal services 1,62 1,59 1,Net taxes for products 12,72 14,31 14,*) preliminary data Source: Federal State Statistics Service Economic development in 2006 was characterized by simultaneous increase in business activity of both goods and service production. In 2006 the share of goods production in the GDP was equal to 37.5%, 75.0% of it being accounted for by industrial production and 13.6% by construction.
Comparative analysis of the Russian economy with regard to the kinds of activities demonstrates, that the ratio of growth rates of the industry, construction and trade had the most significant impact on the nature and structure of development. Investment activity in national economy increasing in 2006, trade gave the leader position to the construction. The share of wholesale and retail trade in GDP in 2006 was equal to 16.8% against 18.3% on average over 2002-2005.
Since 2003 structural shifts in the industry have been determined by the anticipating growth of manufacturing industries in Russian economy along with the reserved dynamics of minerals extraction.
Analyzing the development trends of minerals extraction productions the influence of such factors the reduction of effective spare capacities, low rates of development and deployment of the new fields, transport, export and expeditionary infrastructure limitations should be taken into account. Underexploitation of extractive industry growth potential was also determined by reserved rates of raw materials processing in metallurgy and petrochemistry. In the environment of existing fixed assets structure the further increase in facilities utilization was accompanied with the increase in production capital intensity and the decrease in labor and financial resources usage efficiency.
It is to be noted that it was the slow-down in fossil fuels extraction rates that had the most significant impact on the dynamics of extractive industry in 2005-2006. Production index in fossil fuels extraction in reduced to 102.5% against 107.5 % in 2003, and metal ores – to 101.8% against 108.5%. In the environment of tax load growth the slackening of motivation for extraction and export volumes increase was observed among oil companies. In recent years the oil products export efficiency has been growing significantly and this determines the changes in marketing policy of oil companies. In 2006 while oil extraction grew by 2.4% the sales at the domestic market increased by 5.4%, export decreasing by 1.2%. The increase in oil products export over the same period was 7.1%.
Table Indices of Commercial Production by Types of Economic Activities in 2003-2006, in % vs. the Preceding Year 2003 2004 2005 Industry 108,9 108,3 104 103,Extraction of Minerals 108,7 106,8 101,3 102,Extraction of fossil fuels 110,3 107,7 101,8 102,Extraction of minerals, excluding fossil fuels 102,5 108,5 96,8 101,Manufacturing industry 110,3 110,5 105,7 104,Production and distribution of electricity, gas and water 103,3 101,3 101,2 104,Source: Federal State Statistics Service In 2006 against the background of demand for capital and consumer goods expansion at the domestic market the industry output volumes were characterized by gradual growth rates acceleration and the increase in contribution into economic growth. The index of industry growth was 103.9% in 2006 in comparison with 104.0% in 2005 but remained 4.4 p.p. lower than the figure of 2003. The increase in manufacturing industries production volumes in 2006 was 4.4% as compared with 5.7% in the previous year.
Table The Change of Production Rates by Types of Processing Industries Activities over 2003-2006, in % vs. the Preceding Year 2003 2004 2005 Manufacturing industries 10,3 10,5 5,7 4,Food production, including beverages and tobacco production 6,9 4,4 4,4 5,Textile and clothing manufacture 1,2 -4 -1,5 7,Production of leather, leather goods and footwear 11,5 -0,6 -2,7 16,Woodwork and manufacture of articles 9,7 8,7 4,5 0,Pulp and paper production, printing and publishing 7,8 5,1 1,2 6,Coke and oil products production 2,2 2,4 5,4 6,Chemical industry 5,4 6,6 2,6 1,Rubber and plastic goods production 5,5 13,5 5,5 11,Other non-metal mineral products production 7,3 8,4 3,5 10,Metallurgical production and finished metal fabrics 7,2 3,9 5,7 8,Machinery and equipment production 19 21,1 -0,1 3,Electrical, electronic and optic equipment production 43,2 34,5 20,7 -5,Transport vehicles and equipment production 14 11,5 6 3,Other manufactures 10,8 10,5 0,7 7,Source: Federal State Statistics Service The analysis of engineering industry over the last years indicates considerable dependence of the level of business activity on economy revenues from foreign-economic activity. Besides, in 2006 the additional factor of engineering industry growth was the improvement in trade conditions for high-tech goods produced domestically at foreign markets as well as positive changes in investment environment, connected with the gradual duties reduction for imported componentry and equipment and also the industry assemblage mode deployment in motor-car construction. It should at the same time be noted that production output in some branches of engineering industry is subjected to quite substantial fluctuations.
In 2006 for the first time over the last four years the production of electric, electronic and optic equipment demonstrated the negative dynamics after the increase in production by 20.7% in 2005 and by 34.5% in 2004.
In 2006 the domestic production of machinery and equipment increased by 3.3% after output stagnation in the previous year and increase in import for this type of products was, according to the preliminary data, 50.9%. The production of mechanical equipment reduced in 2006 by 9.9 % due to the dramatic decrease in orders for steam (80.5% versus 2005) and water (75.3%) turbines, which was not compensated by the increase in gas turbines production by 39.5% in comparison with 2005.
Sporadic crisis phenomena of overproduction in motor-car construction as well as steady growth of investment and consumer demand for foreign models against the background of the growing economy and population revenues can be referred to as negative factors which influence the dynamics of transport vehicles and equipment production. While the growth of domestic motor-car construction was 9.9%, the import of passenger cars increased by 35.9%. Domestically-produced cars account for 38% of the market, foreign brands of cars, produced in Russia, - by 14% and new foreign brands of cars produced abroad - 35%.
Metallurgic production and production of finished metal fabrics increased by 8.8% in 2006, including increase in metallurgy production by 7.5%.
Considerable growth in pipework production was accounted for by the growth of demand for breeches in connection with active construction and reconstruction of oil and gas pipelines network. The production of steel pipes increased by 17.7% in comparison with 2005, import growth being, according to the preliminary data, 30%.
In 2006, for the first time over the years of reform development, the anticipating rates of electricity, gas and water production and distribution as compared with the dynamics of the industrial growth were observed. In 2006 electricity production grew by 4.5% against 2.2% in the preceding year. Analyzing the dynamics of electricity consumption, it should be taken into account that the dynamic development of power industry determines the expansion of products and service market. In 2005 turbine power stations with the plant output of 2.2 mln kilowatt were built, exceeding in more than 2 times the amount of commissioning in 2004. This obviously influenced the market and stimulated the consumers to connect to the centralized sources of power supply. Thus, in 2006 it was the expanded potential of the power industry that determined the changes in the development rates ratio of the main kinds of activities in industry and the role of power industry in Russian economy. Under the conditions when the trend for the growth in the demand for electricity has been outlined low renovation norms of fixed assets and the existing dynamics of annual power commission create the danger of deficit arising and became the real limitations for the country’s economy growth rates.
16,14,12,10,8,6,4,2,0,I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV -2,2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 -4,-6,GDP Industry Electricity production Figure 1. Changes in Growth Rates of GDP, Industry Production and Electricity Production, in % vs. the Corresponding Period of the Preceding Year The trends existing in recent years defined the nature of the economic dynamics in the beginning of 2007.
In January 2007 considerable rates acceleration was fixed in almost all types of economic activities. The industrial production index increased up to 108.4% and exceeded the figure of January of the previous year by 4 p.p. Exceptionally high manufacturing industry index was observed in January 2007 – 117.3% against 104.1% in the corresponding period of 2006. The rates acceleration of manufacturing industries production as compared with the corresponding period of the previous year was determined by anticipating growth of production of machinery and equipment (199.0%), transport vehicles and equipment (123.4%), electric, electronic and optical equipment (125.1%), rubber and plastic goods (127.6%). In the beginning of the current year the trend for consumer commodities production growth persisted. In comparison with January 2006 the increase in food production was 24.6%, in leather, leather goods and footwear production – 33.8%, in textile and clothing manufacture – 16.8%. Production index in minerals extraction in January 2007 increased up to 104.2% against 101.2%.
Table Dynamics of the Main Economy Indices In January 2005-2007, in % versus the corresponding period 2005 2006 108,Industry Production Index 101,6 104,Mineral extraction index 102,1 104,1 117,104,Processing industry index 102,9 100,101,Agriculture production index 99,8 101,Retail trade turnover 109,3 110,8 113,Investments in fixed assets 105,4 103,6 123,113,Real disposable monetary incomes 89,7 105,117,Real wages 108,9 110,Source: Federal State Statistics Service One of the main problems of Russian economy development is still low efficiency of factors of production usage. It should be noted that the change in industrial production structure was accompanied with the transformational shifts in the main factors of production. First, the general trend being the increase in investment activity in the economy the share of the investment in minerals extraction in the total amount of the investments in fixed assets reduced from 15.9% in 2003 to 13.4% in 2006 (preliminary estimation) while the share of processing industries increased from 15.9% in 2003 to 16.8% in 2006. Second, both for manufacturing and extractive industries the characteristic feature over the period of 2003-2006 was the decrease in labor force demand in the environment of higher demands for professional skills.
Table Dynamics of Labor Productivity, in % vs. the Preceding Year 2003 2004 2005 2006* Economy as a whole 107,0 106,5 105,5 106, broken by kinds of economic activities:
minerals extraction 109,2 107,4 106,1 105, manufacturing industry 108,8 107,5 105,6 104, production and distribution of electricity, gas and water 103,7 100,1 103,9 103, construction 105,3 106,9 105,9 108, wholesale and retail trade; vehicles, motorcycles, household appliances and articles of private use service 109,8 108,9 107,2 106, Transport and communication 107,5 108,3 100,5 105,*)preliminary data It was the growth of discrepancy between the rates of labor productivity and rates with the benefit for the latter that had the negative impact on descriptive figures of the economy dynamics. Over the period of 20032006 real accrual wages increased in 1.57 times the growth of labor productivity being 1.28 times. In January 2007 real wages increased by 17.% against 10.1% in the corresponding period of the previous year.
O. Izryadnova Business Survey in February After an extremely favorable situation in January in February the demand and output dynamics returned to the usual levels. The continuing growth of production raised facility utilization in Russian industry up to 72%, but also created new problems. It seems that the enterprises do not have enough facilities to increase the output. The reserves of idle facilities have been exhausted, while only 46% of enterprises have enough investments for the expected demand growth.
2007 began with the intensive growth of industrial production. According to the data of the Federal State Statistics Service, in January the industry expanded by 8.4% (a year ago this index was equal only to 4.4%) versus the corresponding period of the previous year, while the processing industry increased by whole 17.3%. Excluding seasonal and calendar factors as well as occasional fluctuations, average daily production output, according to the Center for Macroeconomic Analysis and Short-Term Forecasting estimations, increased by 0.4% in January in comparison with December, which is in line with the average monthly growth rate in the last year.
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