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The most substantial growth of the share in the aggregate investment portfolio of private asset managers was demonstrated by shares (from 19 % to 29 %), and was observed mostly in Q IV. It were shares that provided the highest rate of return during the period under consideration. Over the year 2006, the RTS index grew by more than 70 % (in USD), including by 23 % during Q IV; obviously, this high dynamics of the prices of shares became the factor responsible for the high rate of return achieved by PAMs in 2006. As seen by the results of the year 2006, the highest rate of return on investments achieved by private asset managers was 39 % (UNIVER Management), while in 2005 it was 52 % (Troika - Dialog). The rate of return on pension savings investment achieved by Vneshekonombank was 5.7 % in 2006 (against 12 % by the results of 2005) Table 1 shows the structure of the investment portfolio of asset managers with the highest rates of return, as seen by the results of the first three quarters of 2006. It appears that one cannot, after all, come to the conclusion that it was investment in shares that provided the highest rates of return within the investment portfolio. Shares constituted approximately only one half of the investment portfolio of RTK-INVEST. Three asset managers with rates of return of 26 % - 29 % also had a rather high percentage of shares (25 % - 26 %), and a higher of subfederal bonds (31 % -36 %). As for the leader of 2006 - UNIVER Management, - its investment portfolio is very small in absolute terms (its market value being only 2.3 million roubles as of the end of Q III 2006), which, evidently, was the reason for its deformed structure (more than a half of its assets was concentrated at credit institutions as residuals on the asset managers accounts or as monies transferred to the professional participants of the securities market, which are not instruments with high rates of return).

Table 1.

The structure of the investment portfolio of asset managers with the highest rate of return, by the results of the first three quarters of AKKORD URALSIB - ASUNIVER RTK Asset Man- SET MANAGE- URALSIB Management INVEST agement MENT Rate of return, % per annum 44.4 29.8 29 28.5 25.Market value of portfolio, million 2.3 20.1 34.1 15.9 533.roubles.

Share in investment portfolio, % RF government securities 6.4 26.0 4.8 4.8 4. Including in foreign currencies 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.Government securities of RF subjects 21.1 21.5 36.7 33.6 31.Bonds of municipal formations 8.6 0.0 0.0 8.2 7.Bonds of Russian economic societies 5.2 0.0 14.5 10.4 11.Shares of Russian issuers 2.5 44.3 24.9 25.7 26.Monies on accounts at credit institutions 26.7 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.Rouble denominated deposits at credit 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.institutions Receivables 29.5 7.9 19.0 17.4 19. including monies transferred to professional participants of the securities mar- 28.7 7.4 17.9 16.2 17.ket including receivables against interest 0.8 0.5 1.2 1.2 1.income on securities Source: PFR By the results of the whole year 2006, UNIVER Management remained the leader, although in absolute terms its index went down from 44.4 % to 39.2 %. The rate of return of RTK-INVEST, who also had kept its second place, on the contrary, went up from 29.8 % to 37.0 %. The third place was occupied by DoverieKAPITAL (35.7 %), the 4th by OTKRYTIE (35.1 %), the 5th by the balanced investment portfolio of AGANA (35.0 %). The rates of return among the managers of the largest investment portfolios, as seen from Table 2, were rather versatile (between 9 % and 30 %), while being on the average 19.6 % (the average index of all the PAMs was 21 %).

Table 2.

Rates of return on investments of PAMs with the most substantial investment portfolios 2005 Assets as of Assets as of end of Rate of reend of year, Rate of return, year, million rou- turn, million rou- % bles % bles UK Rosbanka 1084.80 15.17 1892.4 18.SOLID Management 529.75 22.00 910.6 28.PENSIONNYI REZERV 316.93 25.58 840.7 19.AK BARS KAPITAL 502.15 21.88 793.7 21.RFTs - KAPITAL (formerly NFP UK) 486.48 11.33 733.3 9.Source: PFR The statistics published by the PFR yields a more complete picture of the use of bank deposits being made by asset managers. As of the end of Q III 2006, this instrument was present in only 10 investment portfolios, while their share in the aggregate investment portfolio of PAMs was less than 6 % (7 % as of the end of year). At the same time, the share of funds being transferred by asset managers to brokers and/or to exchange settlement systems remains rather high. In respect to the aggregate investment portfolio of private asset managers, this index was 8 %, while the total share of money assets placed within the banking system thus became 16 %.

Since no information on the structure of pension savings investments being formed by the NGPFs in have become available as of the moment of the publication of this paper, we can estimate the role of the institutes participating, at later dates, in the mandatory pension system within the corresponding segments only by those asset managers that invest the assets belonging to the PFR. Thus, the share of pension savings invested by asset managers in rouble-denominated government securities increased over the year from 18 % to 24 % of the total volume of the market issues of OFZ22. At the same time, the share of pension savings on the corporate bond and share markets remains very low (as of the end of Q III - 0.2 % and 0.01 %, respectively). If one bears in mind that pension savings can be invested only in the securities listed in the quotations of the highest level only, the situation will change but slightly. The share of pension savings in the total volume of bonds included in lists 1 of the Russian exchanges was 2.2 %, while in the capitalization of the shares thus listed 0.04 %.

This situation makes it possible to call attention once more to the urgent necessity of diversifying the instruments and liberalizing the procedure for investing the pension savings being formed for the benefit of those insured persons who have not made any investment choice of their own.

L. Mikhailov, L. Sycheva Military expenditures in the 2007 federal budget In accordance with the federal budget, Russias military expenditures, which have been brought in their structure to comply with the NATO standard, in 2007 will become as high as 3.81 % of GDP, having grown in real terms by 8.1 %, while the expenditures under the section National Defense will grow by 9.9 %. In this connection, as before, efforts are mainly focused at increasing the investment component of military expenditures.

The 2007 federal budget (FB-07) 23, signed by the President of the Russian Federation on 19 December 2006, envisages expenditures under the section National Defense in the amount of 822 billion roubles (2.63 % of GDP, or 15.05 % of the total federal expenditure of FB-07). The growth in real terms24 against last year in that sections total will be 9.9% (see Table 1). The main growth of expenditures will be seen under subsections 0206 Applied scientific research in the sphere of national defense and 0208 Other issues in the sphere of national defense: the former will be increased by 18.5 %, the latter by as much as 36.7 %. The greatest relative growth will be demonstrated by the expenditures under subsection 0202 Mobilization - related and military training for civilians by 53.93 %. Subsection 0201 Armed Forces of the Russian Federation the principal one in that section, both in volume and significance, will be increased by 5.9 %. In the other subsections, it is planned that expenditures in real terms will be decreased.

The expenditures under section 0300 National Security and Law Enforcement Activity are expected to grow in real terms by comparison with the year 2006 by 9.3 % and to become as high as 662.9 billion roubles (2.12 % of GDP of 12.6 % of total expenditure in FB-07). The highest growth in expenditure is envisaged under subsections 0309 Prevention and liquidation of consequences of emergency situations and natural disasters, civil defense (by 24.2 %) and 0306 Security agencies (by 11.9 %). In this connection, the military component in the former case will grow only slightly (according to our estimate by 1.5 %), while the expenditures under subsection 0307 Frontier service agencies will remain, in fact, at the level of (Table 2). The military expenditures under other budget sections display a relative growth (by 18.1 %) in the financing of closed administrative and territorial units (CATU).

On the whole, the relative growth of defense expenditures in 2007 will be slightly (by 0.6 %) higher than the growth of security expenditures, which, however, will have no influence on their comparative dynamics in the medium term (Table 3 and Fig.), which demonstrates that security expenditures have been growing, on the whole, approximately twice as fast as defense expenditures.

Without the funds invested by the PFR.

On the 2007 federal budget : Federal Law No 238-FZ: adopted by the State Duma on 24 November 2005.

Here and hereinafter the estimates are based on the forecast of the Ministry of Economic Development and Trade that the GDP deflator will go down to 109.0 %. For more details, see Ob osnovnykh utochneniiakh otsenki 2006 goda, prognoza sotsialno-ekonomicheskogo razvitia na 2007 2009 gody i predvaritelnykh proektirovkakh osnovnykh parametrov na 2010 god [On the main clarifications of the estimate of the year 2006, the forecast of the socio economic development for the years 20072009, and the preliminary projected values of the main parameters for the year 2010]. Minekonomrazvitiia, 27.12.2006.

Table Direct military expenditures of the federal budget under the Section National Defense Difference in Share of expenditures, in % / Sum in FBexpenditures of growth by comparison with 2006, 07, million FB-07 and FB- in p. p.

Code Sections and subsections roubles / 06, million rousame in bles / growth in to FB-07 to GDP prices % 0200 National defense 822 036 68 013 15.05 2.754 161 9.91 0.44 0.0201 Armed Forces of Russian 594 900 30 417 10.89 1.Federation 545 780 5.90 -0.74 0.0202 Mobilization - related and 5 900 1 897 0.11 0.military training for civilians 5 413 53.93 0.03 0.0203 Preparation of economy for 3 500 289 0.06 0.mobilization 3 211 8.26 0.01 0204 Preparation of and participa- 78 12 0.00 0.tion in ensuring collective 72 19.343 security and peace keeping activity 0205 Nuclear weapons complex 12 099 330 0.22 0.11 100 2.89 0.04 0206 Implementation of interna- 6 039 403 0.11 0.tional obligations in sphere 5 540 6.77 -0.02 of military technological cooperation 0207 Applied research in sphere 120 465 17 247 2.20 0.of national defense 110 519 18.49 0.10 0.0208 Other items in sphere of 79 054 19 463 1.45 0.national defense 72 527 36.68 0.25 0.Table Direct and indirect military expenditures under other items of the federal budget Difference in Share of expenditures, in % / Sum in FBexpenditures of growth by comparison with 2006, 07, million FB-07 and FB- in p. p.

Code Sections and subsections roubles / 06, million same in roubles / to FB-07 to GDP 2006 prices growth in % 0300 National Security and Law 662 867 51 798 12.13 2.Enforcement Activity 608 135 9.31 0.42 0.0303 Internal forces 45 919 3 702 0.84 0.42 127 9.63 0.03 0.0306 Security agencies 113 244 11 076 2.07 0.103 894 11.93 0.02 0.0307 Frontier service agencies 55 283 120 1.01 0.50 718 0.24 0.14 0.0309 Civil defense units of Ministry 24 310 334 0.44 0.for Extraordinary Situations 22 303 1.52 0.05 and civil defense 1101 Federal dotations and subven- 20 387 2 867 0.37 0.tions to CATU 18 704 18.10 0.02 0.1102 Subventions to budgets for 1 060 28 0.02 0.execution of powers relating to 972 2.75 primary military registration Note. Italics mark the analytical groups of expenditures separated within a given subsection.

Table RF defense and security expenditures in 1999Years 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 Expenditures under subsection National Defense in budget 115.6 191.7 247.7 295.4 355.7 430.0 581.1 681.8 822.year prices / in 1999 115.6 139.3 154.5 159.5 168.5 170.5 192.5 550.2 662.prices, billion roubles.

Growth on previous 20.5 10.9 3.2 5.6 1.2 12.9 10.year, % Growth on 1999, 20.5 33.7 38.0 45.8 47.5 66.5 66.5 84.% Expenditures under subsection National Security and Law Enforcement 55.6 105.4 148.9 190.4 247.9 315.4 450.1 550.2 662.Activity in budget 55.6 76.6 92.9 102.9 117.5 125.0 149.1 155.4 171.year prices / in prices, billion roubles.

Growth on previous 37.8 21.3 10.7 14.2 6.4 19.2 4.2 10.year, % Growth on 1999, 37.8 67.1 85.0 111.3 124.9 168.2 179.5 208.% Source: the IETs estimates, based on GDP deflator; for 19992006 cash execution of the federal budget, for 2007 allocations.

900,00 Expenditures on defense, in 800,nominal terms 700,Expenditures on 600,defense, in real terms 500,400,Expenditures on 300,security, in nominal terms 200,100,Expenditures on security, in real 0,terms 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 Source: the IETs estimates.

Figure. Expenditures of the federal budget on defense and security, billion roubles.

The classified expenditures in the federal budget in 2007 will amount, on the whole, to 669 billion roubles (2.14 % of GDP, or 12.2 % of the total expenditure of the federal budget), including 375.3 billion roubles under subsection 0200 National Defense, and 209.1 billion roubles. under subsection 0300 National Security and Law Enforcement Activity .

An analysis of the distribution of allocations in FB-07 by type of expenditure within the functional classification has shown that, in sections 0700 Education, 0800 Culture, cinematography and means of mass communication and 0900 Public health care and sport, 77.9 billion roubles (0.25 % of GDP, or 1.4 % of the total expenditure of the federal budget) can be placed within the category of military and militaryassociated expenditures (including also the classified expenditures within other types of expenditures). The share of the Ministry of Defense therein will be no less than 52.8 billion roubles (0.17 % of GDP, or 1 % of the total expenditure of the federal budget). It should be noted that these expenditures from the civilian sections of the budget must be by all means taken into account when analyzing the corresponding time series of Russian military expenditures, because prior to 2005 they were part of the expenditures under the section National Defense of the previously existing budget classification.

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