On the whole, the situation on the international oil market throughout February remained favorable enough, although not always stable. Thus, early in the month a downward trend in the quotations’ dynamics was dominating the market, resulting from the OPEC’s decision not to change the existing quotas at least until early March, as well as from the positive news as to the amounts of reserves of oil and oil products in the USA. However, after Iran made its declaration concerning a possible revival in the uranium enrichment activities, associated with the IAEA’s intention to submit its nuclear file for the consideration by the UN Security Council, oil prices went up. Later on, until mid-February, oil prices demonstrated versatile dynamics until their consolidation at the level of $ 63 per 1 barrel, while the tense relations between Iran and the West were somewhat relaxing, and the oil reserves in the USA were gradually growing.
Early in the month’s second half, the situation on the international oil market was rather uncertain.
Thus, on the one hand, the statistical data on the reserves of oil and its main distillates were rather favorable. This means that the US economy has had a rather calm winter - the season during which the consumption of oil and oil products usually increases. On the other, the lack of stability in the main oil-producing regions remains a rather important factor that influences the pricing policies. In particular, this is true in respect of the political tension around Iran, a somewhat complicated situation in Nigeria, and the risks of terrorist attacks against the oil infrastructure in Saudi Arabia. Besides, the market awaits the results of the next OPEC meeting, where many members will be striving to lower the official quotas. By the month’s end, the influence of these positive factors became somewhat stronger, while that of the negative ones diminished (the tension around Iran), which resulted in a still further gradual decline in the price level. This decline became somewhat slower only after the news from Nigeria appeared, where an upsurge in the activity of local rebels resulted in a fall in the volume of oil supplies to the world market by half a million barrels per day, which pushed up the prices of Brent above $ 60 per 1 barrel.
The situation on the international stock markets in February was, as before, rather favorable (see Table 1). The basic stock indices in the majority of developed and developing countries demonstrated an upward trend.
11.01.27.01.14.02.03.03.22.03.07.04.25.04.14.05.31.05.17.06.05.07.21.07.08.08.24.08.09.09.27.09.22.214.171.124.17.11.05.12.22.12.18.01.03.02.21.02.The dynamics of the US market in February were multidirectional. The month began with a fall in the basic indices, resulting from the negative corporate news concerning Google, which was followed by a short-term positive adjustment against the backdrop of declining oil prices on the world market.
Later on, the market resumed its downward trend, due to the fixation of profit by investors in expectation of the macroeconomic statistics, which demonstrated that labor cost in the USA increased, alongside a slight growth of oil prices, as well as unimpressive financial results in the corporate sector. During the month’s second half the market once again demonstrated multidirectional dynamics. Thus, it was supported by the rather positive news from the corporate sector, demonstrating growing incomes of some of US biggest companies, as well as stabilized oil prices. The prices, on the contrary, were under pressure due to the comments of the president of Cleveland Bank on stable economic growth and the resulting probability of a further rise of the interest rate, as well as due to the growing prices of “black gold” at the month’s end.
260% Dow Jones Industrial Average 240% NASDAQ Composite The RTS Index 220% 200% 180% 160% 140% 120% 100% 80% Corporate news Open-End Joint-Stock Company “Gazprom” On 26 February, the Board of Directors met at the central office of the Open-End Joint-Stock Company “Gazprom”, during which an agreement was achieved concerning the purchase, by “Gazprom”, of 50% of shares in “ROSUKRENERGO AG” from a “Gazprombank”’s subsidiary. This transaction will be effectuated in order to optimize the management of “Gazprom”’s core assets. Considering the fact that “Gazprombank”, by participating in the foundation and subsequent operation of “ROSUKRENERGO AG”, was, in fact, acting on “Gazprom”’s instruction, the price equal to the amount of “Gazprom”’s historic expenses (the amount of investments and expenses related to interest, exchangerate and administrative payments) was recognized as the fair value of the stake being purchased.
The Board of Directors also accepted the information concerning the preliminary results of “Gazprom”’s operation in the year 2005. The Board approved the investment program, the budget (or financial plan) and the program for optimization (or reduction) of the company’s costs in the year 2006.
In accordance with “Gazprom”’s approved budget for the year 2006, the total amount of incomes and revenues, including the period’s opening balance, will be equal to 1,889.3 billon roubles, while the total amount of liabilities, expenditures and investments – to 1,980.2 billon roubles, and financial borrowings - to 90 billon roubles. Money surplus will amount to 0.153 billon roubles. The approved pro 11.01.01.02.22.02.14.03.04.04.25.04.14.05.03.06.24.06.15.07.05.08.26.08.16.09.07.10.126.96.36.199.09.12.30.12.23.01.13.02.gram for optimization (or reduction) of costs in the year 2006 envisages measures, the total effect of which is expected to be 11 billon roubles.
In accordance with “Gazprom”’s approved investment program for the year 2006, the volume of investments to be implemented amounts to 310.1 billon roubles, including capital investments in the amount of 278,42 billon roubles, and long-term financial investments – 31,68 billon roubles. “Gazprom”’s budget and investment program for the year 2006 have been so far developed without taking into account the integration of the Open-End Joint-Stock Company “Sibneft” into the “Gazprom”’s structure. However, the 2006 budget does incorporate the results of the concluded purchase of a stake in “Sibneft” in the form of a timely redemption of its liabilities to the bank syndicate.
Open-End Joint-Stock Company “GMK “Norilskii Nikel”” On 17 February, an extraordinary shareholder meeting of the Open-End Joint-Stock Company “GMK “Norilskii Nikel”” (or “Nornikel”) was held. The shareholders voted on all the issues on the agenda in accordance with the recommendations of the Board of Directors. Thus, the charter capital of “Nornikel” was to be decreased by 23,278,137 shares and to amount to 190,627,747 common shares with face value of 1 rouble each. The diminishment of the charter capital by 23,278,137 takes the form of the redemption of the 10,799,433 shares bought out from the shareholders due to the reorganization of “Nornikel” in the form of spin-off in November - December 2005.
Behavior of world stock exchange indices Change in month Change from Data as of 31 January 2006 Index value (%)13 year’s beginning (%) RTS (Russia) 1453.44 10.45% 22.10% 10993.41 1.19% 1.35% Dow Jones Industrial Average (USA) 2302.60 -0.14% 2.62% NASDAQ Composite (USA) 1280.66 0.05% 0.93% S&P 500 (USA) 5791.50 0.54% 1.94% FTSE 100 (UK) 5796.04 2.15% 6.35% DAX-30 (Germany) 5000.45 1.06% 5.16% CAC-40 (France) 7892.60 1.05% 3.46% Swiss Market (Switzerland) 16205.43 -2.67% -0.95% Nikkei-225 (Japan) 38610.00 0.59% 15.23% Bovespa (Brazil) 18706.32 -1.06% 4.35% IPC (Mexico) 2166.84 2.28% 11.72% IPSA (Chile) 2481.96 2.90% 4.75% Straits Times (Singapore) 1371.59 -2.02% -1.27% Seoul Composite (South Korea) 47015.88 5.44% 18.16% ISE National-100 (Turkey) 782.106 -0.21% 10.62% Morgan Stanley Emerging Markets Free Index The currency market.
The situation on the Russian currency market in February was predominantly rather stable, resulting from which the USD/rouble exchange rate was changing only slightly against the level registered early in the month. During the month’s first half the rouble was gradually losing its ground in respect to the USD. After the interest rate in the USA was raised on January 31 to 4.5%, the currency market’s activity and volatility somewhat declined. The USD’s position was being sustained by the sufficiently fa In respect to the levels as of 28 October.
vorable macroeconomic data, and in particular the positive statistics on the labor market, as well as a certain fall of the prices on the international oil market. Besides, a certain reduction in the prices of the Russian oil was also contributing to the USD’s exchange rate growth. In mid-month, the situation on the market became stabilized, and the USD/rouble exchange rate even demonstrated a certain slight decline. Also, the marked lowering of the euro/rouble exchange rate should be noted, resulting from a fall of the euro’s exchange rate on the FOREX market. On the whole, the relative stability of the world currency market produced the corresponding very gradual changes on the domestic market. Toward the month’s end, the USD/rouble exchange rate began to go down, which can be explained by the developments on the FOREX market, as well as by the slight growth of the international oil prices.
Dynamics of the Official USD/RUR and EUR/RUR Exchange Rates in 2005-40.39.Official USD/RUR exchange rate 38.Official EUR/RUR exchange rate 188.8.131.52.184.108.40.206.29.28.27.FIGURE 8.
Dynamics of the Dollar/Euro Exchange Rate on the International Markets 220.127.116.11.1.1. roubles 01.01.16.01.31.01.15.02.02.03.17.03.01.04.16.04.01.05.16.05.31.05.15.06.30.06.15.07.30.07.14.08.29.08.13.09.28.09.13.10.18.104.22.168.22.214.171.124.27.12.11.01.26.01.10.02.25.02.USD/EURO 01.01.31.01.02.03.01.04.01.05.31.05.30.06.30.07.29.08.28.09.126.96.36.199.27.12.26.01.25.02.As shown by the month’s results, between 1 and 28 February the USD/rouble exchange rate went down by 0.008 roubles (- 0,03 %) and amounted to 28.1223 roubles per 1 USD. The rate forecasted for March 2006 amounts to 27.93 roubles per 1 USD. The total trade volume in the USD in the SELT electronic trading system in the period from 1 through 26 February amounted to approximately $ billion, the average daily turnover being $ 2 billion (as compared to approximately $26.05 billion, with the average daily turnover of $1.86 billion, in January). The peak trade volume in the USD during that period was registered on 8 February and amounted to approximately $7.35 billion, the lowest – $million on 20 February.
Indices of financial markets Month October November December January February* monthly rate of inflation 0.6% 0.7% 0.8% 2.4% 1.3% estimated, annual rate of inflation in accordance 7.44% 8.73% 10.03% 32.92% 16.8% with the tendency in given month refinancing interest rate of RF CB 13% 13% 12% 12% 12% average yield to maturity of OFZ, all issues (% per 6.55% 6.55% 6.53% 6.04% 6.5% year) turnover of GKO-OFZ market for given month 33.04 24.58 34.80 32.33 10.(bn. roubles) yield to maturity of Minfin bonds by end of month (% per year):
Tranche 5 5.37% 5.26% 5.27% 5.20% 5.3% Tranche 6 4.91% 4.77% 4.71% 4.50% 4.6% Tranche 7 5.73% 5.29% 5.37% 5.14% 5.3% Tranche 8 4.58% 4.58% 4.71% 4.38% 4.6% yield to maturity of eurobonds by end of month (% per year):
2007 4.97% 5.02% 5.00% 5.13% 5.3% 2010 5.15% 5.08% 5.07% 5.00% 5.2% 2018 5.90% 5.65% 5.67% 5.76% 5.7% 2028 6.18% 6.02% 6.08% 6.12% 6.1% 2030 5.67% 5.47% 5.50% 5.62% 5.6% MBK- MIACR rate (% per year by end of month) 12.13% 8.50% 4.25% 8.86% 6.31% on credits for 1 day official rouble/USD exchange rate by end of 28.4244 28.7312 28.7825 28.1207 28.month official rouble/euro exchange rate by end of month 34.5300 33.9890 34.1850 34.0373 33.rise in official rouble /USD exchange rate during -0.26% 1.08% 0.18% -2.30% 0.01% month (%) rise in official rouble / euro exchange rate during -0.43% -1.57% 0.58% -0.43% -2.08% month (%) Turnover of stock market in RTS in given month 1045.18 778.05 683.99 1095.19 886.(million USD for shares included in list for calculating RTS index ) value of RTS-1 index by the end of month 934.99 1037.26 1125.60 1315.96 1453.changes of RTS-1 index during given month (%) -7.22% 10.94% 8.52% 16.91% 10.45% * Estimates The rouble’s liquidity in the banking sector in January of the current year demonstrated a slight increase, as compared to that in December: the average amount of residuals on the correspondent accounts of credit institutions with the Bank of Russia in January was approximately 362.4 billion roubles, as compared to 360.9 billion roubles in December Between 1 and 28 February, the euro’s exchange rate on the international market went down by $ 0.025 (- 2,1 %), to 1.2026 USD per 1 euro. According to the IET’s calculations, in March the euro/USD exchange rate on the international market is to be at the level of $ 1.21 per 1 euro (see “Bulletin of modeled short-term forecasts of socio-economic indices in the RF”, February 2006, IET).
In February, the euro/rouble exchange rate was also decreasing. In the period from 1 through February, the euro/rouble exchange rate decreased by 0.718 roubles ( - 2.11 %), from 34.05 to 33.roubles per 1 euro. The total turnover of trade in the euro in the SELT between 1 and 26 February was about 372.03 million euro, the average daily turnover being at the level of 21.8 million euro (as compared to about 267.6 million euro, with the average daily turnover of 19.12 million euro, in January).
Thus, in the period under consideration the Russian currency market demonstrated growing volumes of trade in the euro. The maximum volume of trade in the euro during that period was registered on February at the level of 75.8 million euro, the minimum volume – 4.91 million euro on 26 February.
D. Polevoi Efficiency of bank operations in the first 9 months of Year 2005 has tuned out to be rather favorable for the Russian banking system. Judging by the results of the first three quarters, the return on assets (ROA) indicator on the annualized basis made 3.per cent on the average as concerned operating banks without the Sberbank14, whereas in the respective period of 2004 this indicator made 3.3 per cent, and only 3 per cent in 2004 on the whole. The growth in the return on equity (ROE) indicator was even more significant. Whereas in 2004 this indicator was registered at 19.6 per cent, in the first three quarters of 2005 it made 25.2 per cent.