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D.Kozak won another half-victory. The head of the State Council of Dagestan, Magomed Magomedov, one of most odious North Caucasian heads, retired,. As it was rightly noted in a number of materials, prepared in the Embassy actually, corruption dissolution of the state had happened, with the state to be transformed to an asymmetric armed federation of national clans, since 2002 the war of Islamic underground is rising against the official structures. However, D.Kozak could appoint instead of the retired head of the State Council of Dagestan neither S.G. Magomedov (the head of the federal treasury, supported by the main opposition forces) nor the mayor of Makhachkala S.Amirov, who maximally possessed the power and financial resource, Magomedov could appoint the head of the republic M.Aliev, the aged Speaker of Parliament5. In contrast to a dargin Magomedov, Aliev formally represents the biggest Avar ethnos in the republic, but, in fact, he is long being the shadow of M.Magomedov it is characteristic that staying in the post of Speaker of Parliament he was replaced by the son of the latter - Magomedsalam. Alongside with that, it is assumed that in exchange for almost unanimous approval of M.Aliev, he will have to give some posts to opposition (mayor of Khasavyurt, S.Umakhanov, deputy of the Popular assembly S.Murtazaliev, State Duma deputy G.Makhachev, etc) and its Moscow friends. As concerns the prospects of Dagestan, as before, they remain disquieting.

As concerns the economy, no principle events happened. Despite the approval of (continued a year and a half) of the program of socio-economic development of Russia for 2006-2008, which provides for lowering of VAT up to 13%, with preservation of all benefits, the war of documents is continuing between the Prime-Minister of the RF and economic bloc of the Government. The latter insists on lowering the rate only to 15% after the elections of 2008, and only on condition of maintenance of the high level of world oil prices and abolition of concessional 10% VAT rate. The public debate is also continuing between M.Fradkov and A.Kudrin.

In February 2006 the Board of Directors of the RAO UES Russia approved the new version of "5+5 program (initially, they provided for division of RAO UES Russia and privatization of generating assets), however, one could see in it no concrete information (including the announced new plans of additional emissions of concrete generating companies). In our opinion, it is not likely that a controlling shareholder (even such as Gazprom, which represents the State) may appear soon in the generating capacities.

S.Zhavoronkov Budgetary and Tax Policy In January of 2005, basing on the preliminary data on the execution of the federal budget, the revenues of the RF federal budget made 27 per cent of GDP, while the level of expenditures of the federal budget was registered at 13.87 per cent of GDP, and the budget surplus made 13.13 per cent of GDP.

In 2005, the revenues of the RF consolidated budget made 36.1 per cent of GDP, while the expenditures of the RF consolidated budget were registered at 28.1 per cent of GDP, and the budget surplus made 7.9 per cent of GDP. According to the data as on February 1, 2006, the amount of financial reserves accumulated in the RF Stabilization Fund was registered at Rub. 1459.1 billion as compared In reality, like the government of Denmark, wherefrom the scandal began, the EU expressed, a sorrow that those caricatures were interpreted by Muslims as insult , which substantially changes the meaning of the commentary.

The State Council specific body that comprises representatives of all nationalities of Dagestan, whose head is the formal head of the republic, alongside with that, a popular assembly exists on the electoral basis.

with Rub. 1237.0 billion registered as on January 1 of this year. Therefore, in January of this year the amount of the RF Stabilization Fund increased by Rub. 222.1 billion.

The State of the Federal Budget According to the preliminary estimates presented by the RF Finance Ministry, in January of the revenues of the federal budget made Rub. 450.07 billion in terms of the execution of the budget on the cash basis (or 27 per cent of GDP), whereas the expenditures of the federal budget were registered at Rub. 231.17 billion (or 16.55 per cent of GDP). The surplus of the federal budget made Rub. 218.billion (or 7.68 per cent of GDP). It should be noted that in 2006 the amount of revenues of the federal budget in absolute terms turned out to be somewhat below the value of this indicator registered in the preceding year, which at that time made Rub. 456.88 billion; however in relation to GDP it demonstrated a significant decline (35.23 per cent of GDP in 2005). In 2006, in nominal terms the expenditures borne by the RF federal budget also decreased in comparison with the figures registered in the respective period of 2004 (Rub. 250.72 billion); however, they significantly increased in relative terms (13.87 per cent of GDP in 2005). The surplus of the federal budget registered in the period under observation on the contrary in absolute terms somewhat exceeded the value of this indicator observed in 2005 (Rub. 206.15 billion); however, in relation to GDP it declined (15.89 per cent of GDP in 2005).

In December of 2005 and in January of 2006, the amounts of the revenues of the RF federal budget made Rub. 507.42 billion and Rub. 450.07 billion respectively, or were at 24.97 per cent and 27 per cent of the monthly GDP amount. The expenditures borne by the RF federal budget in December of 2005 and January of 2006 made respectively Rub. 527.55 billion (or 25.96 per cent of GDP) and Rub.

231.17 billion (or 13.87 per cent of GDP), while the surplus of the RF federal budget was registered at the level of Rub. -20.130 billion and Rub. 218.89 billion, what respectively made -0.99 per cent and 13.13 per cent in terms of the shares in GDP. Therefore, basing on these data it should be noted that there was registered a certain decrease in the revenues of the federal budget in nominal terms and their increase in relation to the monthly amount of GDP in January of this year in comparison with the figures registered in December of 2005. By the end of the first month of 2005, the expenditures of the federal budget declined in comparison with the value of the respective indicator as observed in December of 2005 both in absolute and nominal terms.

For the structure of revenues over the period under observation, see Table 1.

Table 1.

Amounts of revenues of the RF federal budget (in per cent of GDP, in terms of cash basis execution) Cash basis execution Jan., 2005 Dec., 2005 Jan., Taxes and other payments administered 24,93% 10,67% 14,93% by the Federal Tax Service Taxes and other payments administered 8,91% 12,86% 10,30% by the Federal Customs Service Receipts administered by the Federal Agency for Management of Federal 0,33% 0.30% 0,33% Property Revenues of the federal budget adminis1,06% 1,15% 1,43% tered by other federal structures Total revenues 35,23% 24,97% 27% As it is demonstrated by Table 1, in January of 2006 the structure of tax revenues as broken by individual agencies changed rather significant in comparison with the data collected in December of the last year. Thus, the bulk of the tax revenues was associated with the taxes and other payments administered by the RF Federal Tax Service (14.93 per cent of GDP), what was significantly above the respective figures registered in November and December of 2005. On the contrary, the revenues generated by taxes and other payments administrated by the RF Federal Customs Service turned out to be significantly below the respective indicator observed in December of the preceding year (10.3 per cent of GDP as compared with 12.86 per cent of GDP). The amount of tax generated revenues falling within the receipts administered by the Federal Agency for Management of Federal Property somewhat increased and made 0.33 per cent of GDP. As concerns the rest of the revenues of the RF federal budget administered by other federal structures, it should be noted that in January this amount of revenues also somewhat increased and made 1.43 per cent of GDP.

When comparing the structure of revenues of the RF federal budget as observed in January of and in January of 2006, there should be noted a significant decline in the share of taxes and other payments administered by the Federal Tax Service in GDP, which occurred this year. On the contrary, the share of taxes and payments administered by the Federal Customs Service somewhat increased in comparison with the figures registered in January of 2005. Other revenue items presented in Table practically did not change in comparison with the figures observed in January of the last year.

For the preliminary data on the financing of the expenditures borne by the RF federal budget in January of 2005 and in January of 2006 presented by the RF Finance Ministry, see Table 2.

Table 2.

Amounts of financing of the expenditures borne by the RF federal budget in January of 2005 and in January of 2006 (in per cent of GDP) Financing of expenditures January of 2005 January of Federal issues 6.03% 7.48% Including expenditures associated with the servicing of the public and municipal debt 3.75% 4.05% National defense 7.61% 4.48% National security and law enforcement 5.92% 6.04% National economy 0.90% 0.87% Housing and public utilities 0.01% 0.01% Environmental protection 0.04% 0.06% Education 1.43% 1.30% Culture, cinematography, and mass media 0.43% 0.32% Health care and sports 0.94% 1.28% Social policy 2.45% 2.83% Interbudgetary transfers 16.46% 19.24% Total expenditures 42.21% 43.91% It should be noted that this January the share of financed expenditures of the federal budget in GDP made 43.91 per cent, what was significantly below the respective indicator registered at the end of December of 2005 (16.98 per cent); however, it was comparable with the respective figures registered in January of 2005 (42.21 per cent). In the course of comparison of the structure of expenditures observed in January of 2005 and January of 2006, it should be noted that the largest amounts of financing were registered in the sphere of interbudgetary transfers (19.24 per cent of GDP as compared with 16.46 per cent of GDP in 2005). As concerns other most significant items of expenditures the differences turned out to be not so substantial. Thus, in January of 2006 the expenditures for federal issues made 7.48 per cent of GDP (6.03 per cent of GDP in 2005), including the servicing of the public and municipal debt (4.05 per cent of GDP as compared with 3.75 per cent of GDP observed in 2005), national security and law enforcement (6.04 per cent of GDP as compared with 5.92 per cent of GDP registered a year ago), and national defense (4.48 per cent of GDP as compared with 7.61 per cent of GDP observed in 2005). Other expenditure items totaled to about 6.67 per cent of GDP as compared with 6.19 per cent of GDP registered in January of 2005.

At the end of 2005, the revenues of the RF consolidated budget made 36.1 per cent of GDP as compared with 32.3 per cent of GDP registered in 2004. The expenditures of the RF consolidated budget also somewhat increased in comparison with the respective indicator observed in 2005 (27.8 per cent) and made 28.1 per cent of GDP. In 2005, the surplus of the RF consolidated budget made 7.9 per cent of GDP, what was significantly above the indicator registered in 2004 (4.5 per cent). Therefore, in 2005 there was observed a significant increase in the revenues of the RF consolidated budget at the background of practically constant expenditures, what resulted in such a significant increase in the surplus of the RF consolidated budget.

According to the data as on February 1, 2006, the amount of financial reserves accumulated in the RF Stabilization Fund was registered at Rub. 1459.1 billion as compared with Rub. 1237.0 billion registered as on January 1 of this year. Therefore, in January of this year the amount of the RF Stabilization Fund increased by Rub. 222.1 billion.

Table 3.

Execution of the RF consolidated budget in January through December of (in % of GDP) I II III IV V VI VII VIII IX X XI XII Taxes* 28,7% 23,6% 24,3% 26,5% 26,6% 25,9% 26,4% 25,9% 25,2% 25,4% 25,4% 25,5% Revenues 32,9% 31,3% 31,4% 33,6% 33,6% 32,7% 33,3% 32,5% 31,7% 32,0% 32,1% 32,1% Expenditures 18,3% 23,7% 26,0% 28,4% 28,4% 28,8% 29,1% 28,9% 28,4% 29,3% 29,7% 31,1% Deficit/ 7,7% 5,4% 5,3% 5,2% 3,8% 4,2% 3,7% 3,3% 2,7% 2,4% 1,0% 14,6% surplus I II III IV V VI VII VIII IX X XI XII Taxes* 25,6% 24,4% 25,6% 27,4% 27,1% 26,0% 26,1% 25,7% 5,0% 5,0% 5,1% 25,2% Revenues 32,0% 30,3% 31,5% 33,4% 33,6% 32,2% 32,2% 31,6% 0,9% 0,8% 0,7% 31,1% Expenditures 20,7% 25,3% 27,7% 28,8% 28,8% 28,6% 28,7% 28,5% 8,2% 7,8% 7,9% 29,7% Deficit/ 11,3% 5,0% 3,8% 4,5% 4,7% 3,5% 3,6% 3,1%,7% 3,0% 2,8% 1,4% surplus I II III IV V VI VII VIII IX X XI XII Taxes* 6,1% 21,8% 27,4% 27,4% 26,6% 27,2% 27,1% 26,4% 26.5% 26.9% 26,8% Revenues 30,6% 28,2% 29,8% 32,9% 32,9% 32,5% 33,1% 32,9% 31,9% 32.0% 32.3% 32,3% Expenditures 18,5% 22,8% 25,4% 27,3% 26,9% 27,0% 27,0% 26,9% 26,0% 25.9% 26.1% 27,8% Deficit/ 12,1% 5,4% 4,4% 5,6% 6,0% 5,5% 6,1% 6,0% 5,9% 6.1% 6.2% 4,5% surplus I II III IV V VI VII VIII IX X XI XII Revenues 48,8% 40,3% 40,3% 40,8% 38,8% 38,2% 37,6% 37,0% 36,0% 35,9% 35,8% 36,1% Expenditures 22,2% 23,3% 24,9% 27,1% 26,5% 26,6% 26,7% 26,6% 27,2% 26,1% 25,9% 28,1% Deficit/ 10,0% 26,5% 17,0% 15,4% 13,7% 12,3% 11,6% 11,0% 10,5% 8,8% 9,8% 7,9% surplus Major developments in the budgetary sphere.

In February of 2006, A. Kudrin, the RF Finance Minister, stated that he deemed it wrong that the cut off oil price set for the purposes of transfer of financial resources to the RF Stabilization Fund for year 2006 had been increased, since it would result in the additional inflow of about Rub. 350 billion in the national economy. The new rules governing the transfer of financial resources in the RF Stabilization Fund were approved by the RF Government and thus brought in compliance with article 96 of the RF Budget Code, in accordance with which the oil cut off price for the purposes of formation of the RF Stabilization Fund should be increased from US $ 20 per barrel to US $ 27 per barrel since January 1, 2006.

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