The possible sale of the block of shares of the telecommunications holding “Sviazinvest” has been endlessly discussed during recent years, and therefore when it was entered into the privatization list for 2005 this meant by no means a final decision. From the point of view of the RF Ministry of Economic Development and Trade, the most reasonable solution would be the simultaneous privatization of the whole State-owned block of shares (75 % -1 share), which was being discussed in 2005 alongside the preparation of the RF president’s Edict concerning the holding’s exclusion from the list of strategic objects. At the same time, throughout the year 2005, the coordination of the sale terms with the power structures continued. In October 2005 the fundamental amendments were made to the draft edict by the President’s Administration for state legislation, which envisaged that the guarantees for the power structures were to be legislatively formalized prior to the holding’s inclusion in the privatization program. This means that the holding’s privatization will not take place in the year 2006, either. The holding’s director V. Yashin in late 2005 spoke about the possibility of the sale of the state-owned block of shares either before 1 July 2006, or after the presidential election in 2008.
From the point of view of budget revenue, the positive trends seen in 2001 - 2004 and associated with the growing share of revenues from the use of state property (i.e., reproducible revenues) were still significant in 2005 (table 2).
Official declaration (press-release) by the Rosimushchestvo concerning the results of privatization and federal property management in 2005, 23 January 2006.
The expected federal budget revenue from privatization in 2005 was to amount to no less than 42.billion roubles (if the block of shares in several big enterprises, which in autumn of 2005 were placed on the list of strategic enterprises, are taken into account). The actual revenue from privatization in 2005, less the revenues from the 2004 transaction with shares in the Magnitogorsk metallurgical combine, amounted to approximately 13 billion roubles.
Dynamics of revenues from privatization and use of federal property, billion roubles 1999* 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 forecast 1. Irreproducible 8 547.4 31 367.1 10 110.6 14 700.7 95 237.3 65 777 34 882 31 sources, total 1.1. Privatization 8 547.4 31 367.1 9 990.6 12 703.8 90 660** 61 856.8 29079.2 31 (number of enter- (320) (170) ** prises) 1.2. Realization of - - - - 585 662.7 522 FSUEs’ and military property 1.3. Sale of land - - 120.0 1 996.9 3 992.3 3257.5 5280.8 No data and intangible assets 2. Reproducible 8 720.5 18 790.1 29 122.6 36 762.2 41 143.2 53 710.3 54 404 53 sources, total 2.1. Dividends 848.1 3 675.1 6 478.0 10 402.3 12 395.2 17 222.0 18 610 20 (number of enter- (600) (1050) (782) (747) (319) prises) 2.2. Lease of prop- 2 191.4 3 427.2 4 896.1 7 657.9 9 573.9 11 928.8 14 170 16 erty 2.3. Lease of land - - 3 917.0 4 400.0 197.3*** 901.7 1 748 2 2.4. FSUEs’ part of - - 209.6 914.2 2 387.6 2 538.1 2 386 2 profit (number of (131) (809) enterprises) 2.4. State joint 5 675.0 11 687.3 13 621.9 13 388.8 16 200 17 199.5 17 490 11 venture “Vietsovpetro”» Total 17 261. 9 50 157.2 39 233.2 51 462.9 136 380.8 119 487.2 89 286 84 * The indices of the years 1995-2002 see in: Rossiiskaia ekonomika v 2002 godu. Tendentsii i perspektivy.
(The Russian Economy in 2002. Trends and Prospects). M., IET, 2003, p. 367.
** The revenues from the sale, in 2002, of 74.95% of the shares in Open-End Joint-Stock Company “Slavneft” in the amount of 59,161.95 million roubles were recorded as part of the revenue of the year 2003 (i.e., more than 60 % of the revenue received). ** The revenues from the sale, in 2004, of 17.8% of the shares in Open-End Joint-Stock Company “Magnitogorsk metallurgical combine” in the amount of 21,928.2 million roubles were recorded as part of the revenue of the year 2005 (i.e., more than 60 % of the revenue received).
*** The lease payment for the federal-owned land, after the division. In the subsequent years, the records are kept under the Item “Lease payment and proceeds of sale of the right to conclude lease contracts concerning federal-owned lands”.
Source: RF Ministry of Economic Development and Trade, the Rosimushchestvo (FAFPM), Federal Law “On the federal budget for the year 2006”, and the authors’ calculations.
Moreover, from the year 2003 onward, a stable trend toward an absolute reduction in the privatization revenues proper has been seen: in 2004, as compared to 2003, – by 1/3; in 2005, as compared to 2004, – almost twofold. On the whole, the fall in annual privatization revenues in absolute terms during 2003-2005 was almost threefold. The target index for the year 2006 is 31 billion roubles (i.e., slightly lower than the actual index recorded in 2005); however, it can be achieved only on condition that one or two big privatization projects are actually implemented (“Sviazinvest”, or “Aeroflot”, or “Rosneft”, etc., which at the moment is doubtful). In the summer of 2005, several significant assets were included in the Forecast Plan for the year 2006 (34 % of shares in “Kamaz”, 100 % of shares in “SG-Trans”, 86 % of shares in the “Iliushin” corporation, 70 % in of shares in the All-Russian Exhibition Center (AREC), 100% of shares in the Russian Bank for Development (RBD), and some other).
However, in early 2006 the plans concerning the block of shares in “Kamaz” were altered (it is being claimed by the FSUE “Rosoboroneksport”). The sale of the block of shares in “SG-Trans” requires a separate coordination with the Government. The entry of “Iliushin” in the privatization list is unlikely to result in the actual sale of this asset. The blocks of shares in the AREC and the RBD were taken off the list in August 2005.
As for the reproducible sources of the federal budget revenue associated with property management, these in the 2000s have been displaying an obvious trend toward domination. According to the FAFPM’s data, the aggregate federal budget revenue from privatization and use of state property in the year 2005 amounted, according to preliminary estimates, to 97 billion roubles. The revenues from the use of federal property amounted to more than a half of the aggregate revenue, or to 53 billion roubles, including 14.2 billion roubles – from lease of federal property, 16.6 billion roubles – from dividends on shares in federal property, 17.5 billion roubles - from the RF’s share in the Joint Venture “Vietsovpetro”, 1.75 billion roubles – in the form of lease payment for land, 2.4 billion roubles – in the form of a part of profit earned by federal state unitary enterprises being transferred, 522 million roubles – from the sales of property of state unitary enterprises (or institutions) and military property.
In the period of 2000 – 2005, the annual revenue from reproducible sources went up threefold. Nevertheless, the amount of revenues envisaged in the 2006 federal budget is almost identical to the actual amount of revenues received in 2005.
On the one hand, the decrease in receipts in this category of revenues in the medium term should be regarded as an objective process initiated by the State’s plans to withdraw from the majority of jointstock companies and to liquidate the FSUE sector. At the same time, there is no doubt that the actual timelines for any substantial reduction in the mixed sector go beyond the medium term (or the years 2006-2008), and so the establishment of the revenues from reproducible sources in the year 2005 at the level of the year 2006 can be regarded as an actual recognition of a crisis in the mixed sector.
It should be noted in this connection that the main reproducible sources, far from losing their importance in 2006, may, on the contrary, in view of the global situation as regards the prices of the extracting industries’ products, generate significant growth of budget revenue (all other conditions being equal – for example, if one excludes the factor of “Gazprom”’s or “Rosneft”’s “special” importance in the eyes of the Russian authorities.).
Thus, by way of example, the dividends on the State-owned blocks of shares are viewed by the government as being a major reproducible source of budget revenue. The dynamics seen in recent years have provided an evidence of significant growth in the amount of dividend payments, which since 2000 have been the greatest among all the reproducible sources (Table 2). As has been demonstrated by the data for the years 2004 - 2005, approximately 75 % of all dividend payments being transferred to the federal budget come from 5 companies – “Gazprom” (approx. 50 % of all revenue under this item), “Transneft”, “Vneshtorgbank”, “Rosneft”, and “LUKoil” (prior to the sale of the last block of shares in 2004). The share of 15 biggest payers amounts to 84 % of total dividend payments. As in the previous years, the Open-End Joint-Stock Company “Gazprom” remains the biggest divident payer on government-owned blocks of shares. On 28 October 2005 the company effectuated the transfer to the federal treasury of 10,037,600,000 roubles in order to settle the results of the year 2004, which is equal to 60.6% of all the dividend payments to the federal budget.
No privatization of the majority of the aforesaid enterprises and banks, or that of a substantial proportion of enterprises placed on the strategic list is planned for the nearest future. On the contrary, the experience of 2004-2005 has clearly demonstrated an accelerated expansion of the state-owned structures, with the associated expansion of the dividend-yielding base.
It is also noteworthy in this connection that, in view of such a degree of dividend payment concentration, the mass-scale activity oriented toward enterprises, which has been declared as one of the components of the managerial approach to be dominant in the 2000s, is of no importance any more.
For one thing, the number of such enterprises is rapidly declining (Table 1), having reduced threefold in 2000 – 2004. For another, if a company is capable of paying dividends, the proceeds from selling the state-owned block of shares in it, most probably, will be higher than the potential dividend payments, thus eliminating also the issue relating to the various administrative costs associated with the payment of dividends.
As has been shown by all the experience of the 2000s, the state’s strategic goal in the medium term must become the final settlement of the three issues that have been repeatedly raised throughout the past decade but did not result in finding any definite solutions:
- the formation of a very clear list of strategic objects (or enterprises, or stakes therein), which are to remain State property by well-justified, transparent and legislatively consolidated qualitative criteria related to national security and State needs, with the State being capable of ensuring their efficient management from the quantitative point of view;
- the development and normative - legal formalization of a transparent management model in respect to the abovesaid strategic objects (in this connection, this model does not takes into account the whole body of property temporarily being held by the State under various control regimes);
- optimization of the existing privatization methods and accelerated “unburdening” of the State from non-liquid assets, without “budget assignments” concerning the withdrawal of irreproducible revenues.
A. D. Radygin, N. A. Shmeliova The peculiar features of passive investments on the Russian stock market The strategy of passive (or index-linked) investment is becoming increasingly popular on the Russian stock market. This paper offers an analysis of some interesting regularities that could be detected in the activity of index-linked mutual investment funds in 2004 – 2005 and may help in the understanding of the pricing mechanism as applied to Blue Chips on the market’s various segments.
The peculiar feature of the Russian stock market (RSM), as a developing market, is represented by the existing limited opportunities for any diversification of the portfolios composed of Blue Chips.
This feature is expressed in the proximity of the value of the beta coefficient25 of shares to 1 (see Åable 1).
The beta coefficients of the majority of Blue Chips are close to 1. Irrespective of the specific situation on the RSM observed in the last three years, the average level of beta coefficients of 19 issues of shares, far from going down, increased from 0.88 in 2003 to 0.89 in 2005.
This problem typical of almost all developing markets is associated with the liquidity of their Blue Chips being dependent on the activity of global investors and the prevalence, in their portfolio strategies, of preferences toward making investments in groups of developing markets, rather than in certain countries, as well as on country-based approaches, rather than on sector-based ones. Under such conditions, any individual features of specific markets or specific issuers become unimportant. The changes in the stock indices of different countries, as well as in the prices of Blue Chips, are synchronized.
In this situation, especially attractive on the RSM have become the strategies of passive investment, or index-linked investment, which make it possible to economize on the costs of managing the portfolios of investment funds without any detriment to yields or investment risks. So far, the index-linked funds, established in the form of mutual investment funds (or MIF), have been making their first steps on the RSM (see Fig. 1).
On the RSM, 8 open mutual investment funds and one interval mutual investment fund are operating, the MICEX index serving as the basic index. Net asset value (NAV) of index-linked MIFs in amounted to 703 million roubles, having increased almost fourfold as compared to the previous year.
However, it constituted no more than 0.3% of the NAV of all the MIFs. A new impetus to the development of index-linked MIFs in 2006 will become the creation of MIFs on the RTS index, which serves as the generally accepted index of the RSM. Since 18 January 2006, two MIFs have begun the formation of assets based on the RTS index. Several asset managers of MIFs are preparing to the creation of similar funds.