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Changes in the Monetary Base and in the Gold and Foreign Currency Reserves in 2003 - 2004.

1400 1370 Monetary Base (billion rubles) Gold and Foreign Currency Reserves (billion dollars) Fig. According to the preliminary estimates presented by the RF Finance Ministry, in January through November of 2004 the payments pertaining to the RF foreign debt amounted to RUR 574 billion. The payments associated with the servicing of the foreign debt made RUR 164.7 billion, while the repayment of the principal debt amounted to RUR 409.3 billion. At the same time, new borrowings were registered at RUR 41.3 billion.

According to information provided by the RF Finance Ministry, in 2005 the Russian Federation may make anticipatory repayment of US $ 10 billion of the external debt in the case this step is approved by the creditor countries and the Government.

P. Trounin The Real Sector of the Economy: Factors and Trends In 2004, GDP made Rub. 16778.8 billion increasing by 7.1 per cent in comparison with the figures registered in the preceding year. Since the 2nd quarter of 2004, acceleration of the rates of growth in the final consumption of households became the dominating factor of development of the domestic market. According to the results of 2004, the increase in the final consumption of households made 11.3 per cent, while investments grew by 10.9 per cent.

The beginning of 2005 was also characterized by stable positive rates of growth in consumption of goods and services on the part of households. In January, the retail trade turnover increased by 10 per cent and the amount of paid household services grew by 1.4 per cent as compared with the figures observed in 2004.

Since January of 2005, the elaboration and presentation of the statistical data is carried out basing on the National classification of the types of economic activities (NCTEA) harmonized with the similar international documents. The indicators of the total amount of industrial output and the dynamics of output broken down by separate industries are not comparable with the index of industrial output introduced since the beginning of 2005. Thus, the index of industrial output in 2004 calculated in accordance with the NCTEA methods made 107.3 per cent, while the same indicator calculated in accordance with the OKONKh methods made 106.1 per cent.

In accordance with the requirements set forth by the Regulations of elaboration and presentation of the data relating to the gross domestic product of Russia, the Rosstat has completed the calculation and billion rubles billion dollars 2-8.03.1-7.12.4-10.05.6-12.07.8-14.09.20-26.01.10-16.02.23-29.03.13-19.04.25-31.05.15-21.06.17-23.08.20-26.10.10-16.11.22-28.12.12-18.01.27.07-2.08.29.09-5.10.30.12.03-5.01.adjustment of the indicator of GDP. In connection to the presentation of the reports of the Finance Ministry on the administration of the consolidated state budget as broken down by the function items of the economic classification as well as the revision of the data pertaining to the balance of payments of the Russian Federation by the Bank of Russia and updating of the data on exports and imports there was carried out the refinement of the yearly and quarterly data on GDP in 2002 through 2003. In the course of the adjustment of annual GDP indicators in these years, there were taken into account the data included in the tables costs output of 2002 and the statistical data on the operations of economic agents updated by the territorial authorities.

According to the adjusted data, in 2003 GDP made Rub. 13201.1 billion and Rub. 10817.50 billion in 2002, while the respective rates of growth in GDP made 107.3 per cent and 104.7 per cent. In 2004, GDP made Rub. 16778.8 billion increasing by 7.1 per cent in comparison with the figures registered in the preceding year.

In 2004, economic growth was characterized by an intensive expansion of consumer and investment demand. The specific feature of 2004 was a gradual weakening of the influence of the investment component: the increase in the investment in fixed assets had declined to 10.9 per cent as compared with 12.5 per cent observed in 2003. Since the 2nd quarter of 2004, the increase in the rates of growth in final consumption of households has become the dominating factor of the development of the domestic market. According to the results of 2004, the increase in the final consumption of households made 11.3 per cent, what was by 3.4 percentage points above the level registered in 2003.

1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 2001 2002 2003 Fig. 1 Changes in GDP dynamics as broken down by the components of final demand in 1999 through 2004, in % of the figures registered in the preceding year The scale of final consumption has been growing at the backdrop of persistence of a rather stable ratio between the consumption of households and social transfers granted by state institutions and noncommercial organizations. In spite of a certain deceleration of the rates of growth in real disposable household incomes to 8.2 per cent in comparison with 14.9 per cent observed in 2003, the trend towards the outpacing rates of increase in real wages and salaries in comparison with other types of incomes persisted. In 2004, the rates of growth in real wages and salaries persisted at the levels observed in the preceding year and made 10.9 per cent. At the background of the increase in the level of effective demand of households, in 2004 the retail trade turnover exceeded its level registered in 2003 by 3.7 percentage points. It should be noted that the propensity to save increased in parallel with the growth in household incomes. The 10.2 per cent increase in the share of savings in the structure of incomes permits the population to adapt to the changes in the business situation on the consumer market.

The beginning of 2005 was also characterized by stable positive rates of growth in consumption of goods and services on the part of households. In January, the retail trade turnover increased by 10 per cent and the amount of paid household services grew by 1.4 per cent as compared with the figures observed in 2004. It should be noted that the market of goods was positively affected by a moderate rise in prices. The price indices of food products and nonfood goods made 101.4 per cent and 100.per cent in comparison with the respective levels registered in December of 2004.

On the market of services the business situation was determined by the growth in tariffs on paid household services at the rate of 8.8 per cent a month. In January of 2005, the tariffs on housing and public utilities grew by 19.4 per cent, including the increase in prices of housing services and public utilities by 17.3 per cent and 20.5 per cent respectively. As concerns the group of services pertaining to the passenger transport the total increase in tariffs made 4.4 per cent, while the fare for metro grew by 22.1 per cent, city municipal autobus fare increased by 6.1 per cent, and the prices of long distance railroad coupe tickets rose by 7.4 per cent.

As a result of a sharp increase in tariffs on services rendered to households, in January of 2005 inflation rate accelerated and made 102.6 per cent, while the real disposable cash household incomes declined by 9.6 per cent in comparison with the figures registered in January of 2004. The growth in the real wages and salaries by 5.3 per cent observed in January of 2005 did not compensate for the decline in incomes derived from entrepreneurial activities caused by the long New Year holidays in the first half of the month. The situation was aggravated by the delays of payment of cash compensations related to the monetization of privileges of the socially unprotected groups of the population and pensioners. In January, the high levels of consumption of goods were maintained at the expense of the savings component of the household incomes.

In contrast to the demand on the part of households, the growth in the investment demand decelerated in the beginning of the year. As concerns the real sector of the economy, in January of 2005 the investment in the fixed assets grew by 7 per cent as compared with the 12.7 per cent growth in January of 2004. The phenomenon of the Russian economy is that the centralized withdrawal of capital in reserves occurs in parallel with the increase in the revenues of the economy and enhancement of investment attractiveness of the country. At the end of 2004, the accumulated reserves of the Stabilization Fund made about 4.4 per cent of GDP. Besides, in 2004 at the backdrop of decreasing levels of transformation of the revenues of the economy in investment, the orientation towards the solution of the problems related to the repayment of the foreign public debt began to play the primary role. In the beginning of 2005, Russia in advance repaid its debt to the International Monetary Fund amounting to US $ 3.7 billion. Simultaneously with the solution of the problems related to the repayment of the foreign public debt, at the background of mounting social tension the problem of utilization of the reserves accumulated in the Stabilization Fund for the implementation of measures related to the monetization of privileges and observance of the state social guarantees became more urgent. According to the evaluations presented by the Finance Ministry, the obligations to the Pension Fund amounting to Rub. 74 billion should be fulfilled at the expense of the reserves accumulated in the Stabilization Fund. .

Before turning to the analysis of the rates of growth in industrial output, it should be mentioned that the Federal service of state statistics has stopped to elaborate and present information in accordance with the classification of the branches of the national economy (Russ. abbr. OKONKh), which did not adequately reflected the modern structure of the Russian economy.

Since January of 2005, the elaboration and presentation of the statistical data is carried out basing on the National classification of the types of economic activities (NCTEA) harmonized with the similar international documents. The use of this classification taking the central place in the system of social and economic classifications permits to obtain a quantitative evaluation of inter-branch proportions formed in the modern Russia, to find out the scales of new types of economic activities appearing on the market. The index of industrial output is calculated across such types of activities as extraction of mineral resources, manufacturing production, production and distribution of electrical power, natural gas, and water basing on the dynamics of output of 730 most important representative goods (in kind or money terms). The structure of gross added value as broken down by types of economic activities in the base year (2002) is used as the respective weights.

The indicators of the total amount of industrial output and the dynamics of output broken down by separate industries are not comparable with the index of industrial output introduced since the beginning of 2005. Thus, the index of industrial output in 2004 calculated in accordance with the NCTEA methods made 107.3 per cent, while the same indicator calculated in accordance with the OKONKh methods made 106.1 per cent. In 2004, the structural shifts in the industry were determined by the outpacing rates of development of manufacturing industries in comparison with the extraction of mineral resources: while the increase in the extraction of mineral resources made 6.5 per cent, the growth in manufacturing production made 9.2 per cent.

The beginning of 2005 was characterized by the moderate dynamics of growth across all types of activities. In January of 2005, the index of industrial output made 102.1 per cent as compared with 106.1 per cent registered in the respective period of the preceding year. At the same time, in contradistinction to the figures observed in 2004, the index of extraction of mineral resources (103.2 per cent) exceeded the level of manufacturing production (102.3 per cent). In January of 2004, the increase in the level of output of manufacturing industries was at 9.3 per cent, while the growth in extraction of mineral resources made 7.1 per cent.

Table Indices of industrial output in 2004 and in January of 2005, in % of the figures registered in the respective period of the preceding year 1st quarter 2nd quarter 3rd quarter 4th quarter Year January, of 2004 of 2004 of 2004 of 2004 2004. Index of industrial output 107,4 107,2 107,5 107,1 107,3 102,Extraction of mineral resources 108,4 108,1 105,3 104,6 106,5 103,Including Fuel and energy resources 109,3 108,8 107 105,3 107,5 103,Mineral resources without fuel and energy resources 110,1 110,2 102,1 106,2 106,5 98,Manufacturing production 109,6 107,6 109,6 109,8 109,2 102,Production and distribution of electrical power, natural gas, and water 98,6 102,5 100,1 100,2 100,1 99,Source: Rosstat In the situation of high investment demand formed over the last two years, in January of 2005 the trend towards an increase in the volumes of production of machinery and equipment persisted. In 2004, the structure of manufacturing production was formed at the background of a dynamic growth in production of machinery and equipment (119.5 per cent), electrical power equipment, electronic equipment, and optical equipment (133.9 per cent), and transport vehicles and equipment (111.7 per cent).

In January of 2005, the production of machinery and equipment, electrical power equipment, electronic equipment, and optical equipment increased by 2.7 per cent and 10.8 per cent respectively. In the beginning of 2005, the output of machinery and equipment for electrical power engineering and metallurgy grew at the most rapid rates. As concerns the instrument making, which had the determining impact on the material and technical base of mechanical engineering, the decline made 14.5 per cent as compared with the levels registered in January of 2004.

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