144, transportation complex 395 124 5 2 1 141,1 124,2 81,agriculture complex 435 284 11 5 12,8 10,2 7,3 5,special complex 169 41 - - 89,6 64,5 30,7 21,169, social complex 1509 763 91 7 1 154,0 71,9 57,other objects 86 35 - 1 13,9 9,4 5,4 3,1) Not including investments allocated from the federal budget to purchase the equipment and conduct design and survey works for construction sights and objects included in the Federal target investment program for 2008 and being on the books of the state customers (builders), managers of these investments In January-October 2008 on average in Russia there was RUR 169.2 bln of the state investments used by the government customers or 39.55 of the limit of funds envisaged for the construction, and 61.8% of the total volume of financed funds at the expense of all the sources of financing.
The shift from the financing of the investments in fixed assets at the expense of the enterprises and organizations’ own funds to the expansion of the participation of the borrowed funds was a fundamentally new feature in the economic growth of the last five years. As a result of January-September the share of the borrowed funds in the structure of sources of investments financing made 57.2%, which corresponds to the figure of the analogous period of the previous year.
Up to the recent time the development of this process was accounted for by the increase in the activity of the banking sector, growth of the investments in housing building by the population and the low real value of credit resources. Among the factors influencing the dynamics of the credits and other borrowed funds one can highlight the growth of the organized forms of population’s savings. The share of funds directed to the share participation in the construction made 3.5% of the total amount of the investments in fixed assets, of which the means of the population were 1.7%.
In January-September 2008 the share of banks in the structure of investment resources made 11.0% against 10.2% in 2007 and 9.3% in 2006. The trend for the increase of the insurance and investments companies’, as well as foreign capital, participation in the financing of the investment activity sustained. In January-September 2008 investments in fixed assets from abroad made 5.2% and the share of foreign banks’ credits went up to 1.7% as compared with 1.1% in the previous year.
In contrast to the preceding years in 2008 the net outflow of the capital and foreign investments is observed. According to the preliminary estimation of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, in the 3rd quarter 2008 net outflow of the of the private capital made USD 16.7 bln. In January-September 2008 foreign investments of USD 75.8 bln were received by the Russian economy, which is by 13.8% less than in the corresponding period of 2007, of which the direct investments made USD 19.2 bln or 97.8% on the corresponding figure of the previous year. The biggest share (73.0%) in the foreign investments received is comprised by the credits of the international financial organizations and trade credits.
As compared with January-September 2007 a considerable deceleration of the growth rates of the investments in construction, trade and communication is observed. Investments in transportation retain quite high dynamics thanks to the investments in railway transport.
The specific feature of the structural shifts in the goods production in 2008 was the recovery of the trend for the decrease in the share of the investments in the minerals extraction, which was observed since 2002, but was interrupted in 2007. As a result of January-September 2008 the increase in the investments in fossil fuels extraction made 2.4% as compared with the growth of 23.7% in 2007 on 2006, whereas the increase in the investments in the processing industries made 15.2% against 10.9% in January-September 2007. As to the electricity, gas and water production and distribution the increase in investments there was 8.3% in January-September 2008 as compared with 29.3% in the corresponding period of the previous year.
Table Structure of Investments in Fixed Assets As Broken By Kinds of Economic Activities January-September 2006 2007 2006 2007 Total 100 100 including by kinds of economic activities:
agriculture, hunting and forestry 4.8 5.1 3.9 4.7 4.industry 36.5 38.0 43.6 43.6 45.minerals extraction 14.6 15.2 19.1 19.0 18.of which fossil fuels extraction 13.3 13.8 17.4 17.3 16.processing industries 15.6 15.4 17.5 16.7 17.electricity, gas and water production and distribution 6.3 7.4 7.0 7.9 8.Construction 3.7 3.5 3.6 2.7 2.Wholesale and retail trade; motor vehicles and motorcycles services;
repair of household appliances and items of private use 3.5 3.4 2.8 3.0 2.Transportation 19.1 17.5 22.0 19.7 20.Communication 4.5 4.4 4.0 4.6 4.Financial activity 1.1 1.2 1.1 1.4 1.Operations with real estate, rent and services rendering 17.0 17.3 10.8 11.9 11.Education 2.1 2.3 2.2 2.2 1.Public administration and military defense security; compulsory social security 1.7 2.6 1.5 1.3 1.Health care and social services rendering 2.7 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.Rendering of other utilities, social and personal services 2.8 2.6 2.3 2.4 2.* Not including the subjects of small business and parameters of the informal activity Source: federal State Statistics Service The analysis of the investments dynamics and structure reveals that the low proportion of the investments in the machine building complex is characteristic for the Russian economy. The share of the productions putting out investment goods was equal to 2.5% in 2008 as compared with 2.7% in 2002.
In the environment of the existing structure of the reproduction of fixed assets and the rates of the investments in the machine-building import remains one of the main sources for the renewal of the fixed assets. The share of the investments for the purchase of the import equipment in the total amount of the investments in the machinery, equipment and transport vehicles was equal to 19.9% over January-September 2008 as compared with 18.9% in the corresponding period of the previous year.
The anticipating growth of production and infrastructure objects construction against the background of the sharp deceleration in the implementation of the total housing area was characteristic for 2008. Over January-September the total increase in workload in construction being 14.5%, the increase in housing area implementation made 4.6% as compared with 17.0% and 29.2%, correspondingly, in the analogous period of the previous year.
According to the IET estimation, the expected growth rates of the investments in the fixed assets will make 109.0% as a result of 2008. The crisis of the bank liquidity, increase in the credits interest rates will have a strong negative effect on December figures, and the indices of traditionally successful 4th quarter will become negative for the first time over the last ten years. Besides, sharp increase in the volumes of the uncompleted construction and the increase in expenditures for conservation of the started construction objects together with the negative trends in the financial and crediting sphere will account for the drop in the investment in the 1st quarter 2009 that has been unprecedented in recent years and will intensify the trend for the decrease in investments in fixed assets throughout all 2009.
Foreign Investments E. Ilukhina The total amount of the investments received by the Russian economy in 2008 has reduced by 14%, and it should be noted that all kinds of investments have decreased in volume. This is mainly the result of the worldwide financial crisis, which has led to the general loss of interest to the markets of the developing countries.
According to the state of affairs by the end of September 2008 the accumulated foreign capital, not taking into account monetary and credit regulating institutions, commercial and saving banks, including ruble investments recalculated as US dollars, made USD 251.3 bln, which exceeds the figure of January 2008 by 13.9% and the figure of 1 October 2007 – by 27.0%. However the total amount of the foreign investments received by the Russian economy in 2008 has reduced by 14%, and it should be noted that all kinds of investments have decreased in volume. This is mainly due to the worldwide financial crisis, which has led to the general loss of foreign investors’ interest to the markets of the developing countries.
Table Structure of Foreign Investments in Russian Economy in January-September 2004-As USD mln As percentage to the previous year Total Direct Portfolio Others Total Direct Portfolio Others 2004 29 135 5 590 227 23 318 139.4 119.8 280.2 144.2005 26 829 6 602 365 19862 92.1 118.1 160.5 85.2006 35 323 10 268 665 24 390 131.7 155.5 182.3 22.2007 87 936 19 644 1 547 66 745 248.9 191.3 232.6 273.2008 75 792 19 201 1 296 55 259 86.2 97.7 83.8 82.Source: Federal State Statistics Service Direct investments Portfolio investments Other investments Source: Federal State Statistics Service Fig. 1 Quarter by Quarter Dynamics of Foreign Investments Inflow in the Russian Federation in 2004-Other investments in the Russian economy reduced by 21.3% in the 1st quarter, by 20.8% and 10.0% - in the 2nd and 3rd quarter. As to the segment of direct investments of the foreign investors the decrease was observed during the first half of the current year (by 42.8% in the 1st quarter, and by 9.6% - in the second quarter). In the 3rd quarter of the current year the level of the direct investments went up by 2.1 times as compared with the corresponding period of 2007. In the 1st and 3rd quarters 2008 the portfolio investments were observed to reduce by 37.6% and 67.6% as compared with the corresponding periods of the previous year. In the 2nd quarter 2008 they rose by 13.6%.
The diverse dynamics for different directions of the foreign investments in the Russian economy demonstrate the following changes in quarter by quarter structure of the foreign investments – see fig.
90% 14% 80% 12% 70% 10% 60% 8% 50% 40% 6% 30% 4% 20% 2% 10% 0% 0% Direct investments Other investments Portfolio investments Source: Federal State Statistics Service Fig. 2 Structure of Foreign Investments in Russian Economy in 2003-In 2008 the concentration of foreign investments in the industry and the trade remained the same, 73.8% of the total volume of the foreign investments in the Russian Federation in January-September being directed in these spheres (84.45 in January-September 2007). As a result of 9 months of foreign investments in the industry have increased by 2.9%, in the trade – dropped by 2.1 times. A US D mln 1 quarter 2 quarter 3 quarter 4 quarter 1 quarter 2 quarter 3 quarter 4 quarter 1 quarter 2 quarter 3 quarter 4 quarter 1 quarter 2 quaretr 3 quarter 4 quarter 1 quarter 2 quarter 3 quarter portfolio investments 1 quarter 2 quarter 3 quarter 4 quarter 1 quarter 2 quarter 3 quarter 4 quarter 1 quarter 2 quarter 3 quarter 4 quarter 1 quarter 2 quarter 3 quarter 4 quarter 1 quarter 2 quaretr 3 quarter 4 quarter 1 quarter 2 quarter 3 quarter considerable reduction in investments in trade has led to the contraction of its share in the structure of foreign investments by the branches of industry as compared with the previous year.
Table Structure of Foreign Investments in Russian Economy by Branches of Industry in January-September 2006- Change as percentage to the As US mln As percentage to the total previous year 2006 2007 2008 2006 2007 2008 2006 2007 Industry 17 465 37 008 38 074 140.7 211.8 102.9 49.4 42.1 50.Transportation and commu4 381 5 725 2 237 194.5 130.7 39.1 12.4 6.5 3.nication Wholesale and retail trade 7 381 37 207 17 917 86.0 504.1 48.2 20.9 42.3 23.Operation with real estate, 3151 4 236 10 767 172.8 134.4 254.2 8.9 4.8 14.rent and service rendering Finances, crediting, insur2060 2 152 3 249 149.7 104.5 151.0 5.8 2.4 4.ance, pension provision Other branches of industry 885 1 608 3 548 232.3 182.5 220.6 2.5 1.8 4.Soutce: Federal State Statistics Service Over 9 months of the current year there were 22.6% more foreign investments invested in the processing industries than in the corresponding period of 2007 (over 9 months of 2007 there was a growth in 2.4 times observed as compared with January-September 2006). Foreign investments in the extractive industry over 9 months of the current year have reduced by 1.8 times as compared with the corresponding period of 2008 (in January-September 2007 there was a growth by 1.9 times observed).
As to the processing industry there were investments in foodstuffs production that increased by 54.2%, and those in chemistry industry that doubled, reaching the figures of USD 2.9 bln and USD 2.1 bln, correspondingly. Foreign investments in metallurgy remained practically unchanged in JanuarySeptember 2008 as compared with the corresponding period of the previous year, being equal to USD 11.9 bln.
The analysis of quarter by quarter dynamics of foreign investments in the industry in the current year testifies a considerable slow-down in foreign investments growth rates as compared with the corresponding periods of 2007.
250% 235% 228% 199,3% 200% 184% 175% 158,7% 155,8% 139,4% 150% 131,5% 115,4% 108,7% 87,7% 100% 71,0% 63,5% 59,9% 50% 0% Source: Federal State Statistics Service Fig. 3 Foreign Investments in Industry in 2005-2008, Growth as Percentage to Corresponding Period of Previous Year In the 1st and 3rd quarters 2008 foreign investments in metallurgy went up by 74.6% and 67.5% as compared with the corresponding periods of 2007, while in the 2nd quarter the drop of 42.3% was ob 1 quarter 2 quarter 3 quarter 4 quarter 1 quarter 2 quarter 3 quarter 4 quarter 1 quarter 2 quaretr 3 quarter 4 quarter 1 quarter 2 quarter 3 quarter served. Foreign investors lost interest for the fossil fuels extraction in the first half of 2008, foreign investments in the field decreasing in the 1st and 2nd quarters by 79.0% and 48.1%, correspondingly, and growing in the 3rd quarter by 31.8%, according to the estimation. The reduction in investments in the chemistry industry is observed only for the 1st quarter (89.7% of the level of 1st quarter 2007), whereas in the 2nd and 3rd quarters they went up by 3.0 and 2.1 times, correspondingly.
Differences in the dynamics of the foreign investments by branches of industry were reflected in the quarter by quarter changes in the structure of foreign investments by branches of industry in the current year.
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