Table Average Monthly World Prices in October of Corresponding Year 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Oil (Brent), USD/barrel 12.8 24.1 32.14 21.45 27.2 29.6 49.8 58.2 57.9 81.4 79.Natural gas, USD/1 mln BTU 2.205 2.558 5.767 2.649 4.144 5.162 7.7 12.2 12.76 7.47 6.Petroleum, USD/gallon 0.421 0.699 0.895 0.603 0.801 0.841 1.43 2.056 1.484 2.13 4.Copper, USD/ton 1659.2 1748.1 1838.6 1405.1 1519.0 1916.4 3012.0 4060 7500 8008 4925.Aluminum, USD/ton 1354.2 1470.7 1473.5 1280.8 1313.2 1474.8 1822.8 1929 2659 2442 2121.Nickel, USD/ton 4262.4 7984.2 7353.2 4836.8 6840.9 11030 14483 12403 32348 30999 12139.Source: calculated on the basis of London Metal Exchange, International Oil Exchange (London) In October of the current year the falling of the world prices for agriculture goods and foodstuffs continued, which was accounted for by the decrease in the world prices for the industrial raw materials and fuel, further appreciation of the US dollar and expectations of the decrease in the world demand for the foodstuffs.
The International Grain Board increased the estimation for the world wheat production in 2008 once again. According to the latest forecast the world wheat crop this year makes 683 mln of tons, which exceeds the previous forecast by 7 mln of tons and is 73 mln of tons above the 2007 crop. The volume of the world wheat consumption in 2008 is estimated to be 651 mln of tons that is by 37 mln of tons more than in the previous year. In October the price for wheat (American No 2) was below USD per ton for the first time since June 2007 and made USD 185.9 per ton, which is 19.75 below the figure of September. As compared with December 2007 the drop in prices for wheat (American No 2) was equal to 35.6%.
Starting with August, the deceleration of Russian import value volume growth rates has been observed. In October 2008 the data of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation demonstrate the decrease in import by 2% as compared with September 2008. The yearly import growth rates in October has reduced down to 21.2% as compared with September rates of 46.5%. The drop occurred mainly due to the decrease in growth rates of the import from CIS countries. The growth rates of the import from CIS countries made 5.8% in October 2008 on October 2007 as compared with 45.2% in September 2008 on September 2007, whereas the growth of import from non-CIS countries still sustains at a higher level: yearly growth rates in October made 26.7% as compared with the corresponding figure in September of 46.7%.
In October 2008 foreign trade balance was positive and equal to USD 11.9 bln, which has been the lowest figure since September 2007. Thanks to the sharp rise in prices for oil and other raw materials in the first seven months of 2008 there was an anticipating growth of export as compared with import observed. As a result, in January-October 2008 foreign trade balance made USD 167.2 bln, exceeding the figure of the corresponding period of the previous year by 1.6 times. However the decrease in prices for many raw materials and primarily for oil in September and the following more dramatic drop in October leads to the correction of the foreign trade indices. The problem of the reduction of the positive foreign trade balance that appeared distinctly in 2007 is becoming acute again with the looming prospect of deficit balance in the nearest future.
As a part of the measures aimed at the diminishing the aftermaths of the economic crisis for the domestic car production the Government of the country has adopted a decision on the increase of the import duties for the cars. On 5 December 2008 the decree of the Government “On making changes to the Customs tariff concerning some motor transport vehicles” was signed.
According to the changes made the duty rates for passenger cars and trucks are to increase, and the period when the passenger cars are regarded as belonging to the category of the used is changed from 7 to 5 years. Import duties for passenger cars with the period of exploitation from 1 to 5 years are on average raised from 25% to 30% of the customs value with the corresponding increase in the specific rate calculated in Euros (for 1 cu. cm of the engine volume):
- up to 1000 cu cm – Euro 2.5 for 1 cu cm (earlier – 1.4 Euro);
- 1000 -1500 cu cm - Euro 2.7 for 1 cu cm (earlier – 1.5 Euro);
- 1500-3000 cu cm - Euro 2.9 for 1 cu cm (earlier – 1.6 Euro);
- 1800-3000 cu cm - Euro 4 (earlier – 2.2 Euro);
- more than 3 cu cm – Euro 5.8 (earlier – 3.2 Euro).
Duties for the import cars older than 5 years and having engine volume of less than 1000 cu cm are established at the rate of Euro 2.5 per 1 cu cm of the engine volume (earlier – 1.4 Euro). Duties for the import cars older than 5 years and having engine volume of more than 1000 cu cm but less than cu cm from now on are at the rate of Euro 2.7 per 1 cu cm of the engine volume (earlier – 1.5 Euro).
Duties for the import cars older than 5 years and having engine volume of more than 1500 cu cm but less than 3000 cu cm are established at the rate of Euro 2.9 per 1 cu cm of the engine volume (earlier – 1.6 Euro).
As to the cars older than 5 years and having engine volume of more than 1800 cu cm but less than 3000 cu cm one have to pay Euro 4 per 1 cu cm of the engine volume (earlier – 2.2 Euro), and in case of the import cars older than 5 years with the engine volume of more than 3000 cu cm - Euro 5.8 (earlier Euro – 3.2).
New duties will come into force after 1 January 2009 and will be in effect for 9 months, after which period the Government has to decide how to proceed with the customs policy concerning import cars.
Thus, new cars assembled by the import cars producer in Russia will become more competitive than their import analogues and the production of the AvtoVAZ will be protected for the competition of the used import cars. Mainly it is the producers that do not have the factories in the territory of Russia that will suffer from the toughening of the car import rules. Thus, the prices for Mitshubishi, Mazda, Nissan, as well as premium-class cars of Mercedes-Benz, BMW, Audi, Volvo will increase.
Nevertheless the expansion of the Russian cars market slowed down sharply at the end of 2008.
Over 11 months of the current year nearly 2 mln import cars were sold in Russia, which is by 31% more than the corresponding figure of 2007. The first half of 2008 was especially successful, the volumes of sales increasing monthly by 43-54% (in annual terms). In November 2008, however, the volume of sales reduced for the first time over last four years, which testifies the general change for the worse in the situation at the car market. The decrease in sales in November 2008 made 15% as compared with the corresponding period of 2007. As compared with the previous month sales dropped by 19.5%. In October the sales of import cars reduced by 5.7% as compared with September.
Toughening of the import regime will occur at the meat market in 2009 as well. From 1 January 2009 the Government of the Russian Federation in order to protect the domestic producers of agriculture goods increases import duty rates for pork and poultry for one year. According to the decree of the Government of the Russian Federation No 918 from 8.12.2008 the import duty rate for pork is increased up to 75% and must be no less than Euro 1.5 per kilo. Duty for poultry import above the quota is increased up to 95% and must be no less than Euro 0.8 per kilo. At the same time duty rate for beef import is decreased down to 30% and must be no less than Euro 0.3 per kilo. At present pork import duty rate in the Russian Federation makes 60% of the customs value and must be no less than Euro 1 per kilo, poultry import duty rate – 60% as well, but no less than Euro 0.48 per kilo.
As a part of a support program for the Russian producers the Government has also considered the reduction in quotas for pork and chicken import. For the next year the quota is reduced only for poultry – from 1.25 mln of tons this year down to 952 thousand of tons. The share of the USA is reduced by 180 thousand of tons and the share of the EU countries – by 60 thousand of tons.
Quota for pork import has been increased a bit by including trimming in it (it was a separate position earlier) up to 532 thousand of tons from the current of 502 thousand of tons, and the USA quota increased up to 100 thousand from 50.7 thousand.
However even before duties were introduces meat export had decreased. According to the data of the Federal Customs Service, in November 2008 meat and by-products import reduced as compared with the previous month by 13.3%. Importers do not have enough money to secure the supplies at the previous levels even despite the fact that the prices for meat are not growing at the external markets at the moment. Meat processing productions that are the main consumers of the import meat cannot pay to the suppliers on time since they experience the crisis themselves, solvent demand for their production gradually reducing.
Investments in Real Sector of Economy O. Izryadnova In the environment of the financial crisis the increase in investments in November 2008 made 3.9% on November 2007, and when compared with the previous month of 2008 the growth of investments was equal to 1.9%, which compensated the decrease in investments observed in October. As opposed to the preceding years in 2008 the net outflow of the capital and foreign investments is registered.
According to the preliminary estimation of the Central Bank of the Russian federation, in the 3rd quarter 2008 net outflow of the private capital made USD 16.7 bln. The expected growth rates of the investments in fixed assets, according to the IET estimation, will be equal to 109.0% as a result of 2008.
The deceleration of the economic growth rates changed the situation in the investment sector.
Throughout 2008 a gradual deceleration of the investments growth rates from 119.1% in the 1st quarter to 113.0% in the 2nd quarter and 109.8 in the 3rd quarter has been observed. Over January-November 2008 the investments in the fixed assets went up by 11.3% as compared with the growth of 20.4% in the corresponding period of 2007. Against the background of the financial crisis the increase in the investments in November 2008 was 3.9% as compared with November 2007 and 1.9% as compared with the previous month of 208, which compensated the reduction in the investment scale in October.
The growth rates of the economy deceleration the decrease in the share of the budget fund in the resources for financing of the investments in fixed assets is observed. In January-September 2008 RUR 658.2 bln was financed at the expense of the budget funds, which makes 16.8% of the total amount of the investments in fixed assets throughout the economy, including 5.5% at the expense of the federal budget.
Table Structure of Investments in Fixed assets by Sources of Financing, As Percentage to Total January-September 2006 2007 2006 2007 Investments in fixed assets, total 100 including by the sources of financing:
banks credits 9.5 9.4 9.3 10.2 11. including by foreign banks 1.6 1.1 1.8 1.1 1. borrowed funds from other organizations 6.0 6.1 5.6 6.3 6.budget funds: 20.2 21.2 17.3 18.5 16.federal budget 7.0 8.4 5.8 6.3 5.budgets of the subjects of the Russian Federation and local budgets 11.7 11.5 10.7 11.1 10.Foreign investments in the total amount of the investments in fixed assets 4.8 5.2 7.3 4.8 5.* Not including the subjects of small business and parameters of the informal activity.
Source: Federal State Statistics Service.
It should be noted that in 2008 investments at the expense of the federal budget are directed only into the objects of the capital construction of the state ownership of the Russian Federation In 2008 the Federal Targeted Investment Program (FTIP) envisages financing of 2954 construction sights, objects and measures, of which 1247 objects are supposed to be implemented this year. By November 2008 1075 objects were financed to the full extent, 628 objects were characterized by technical readiness of 51.0% to 99.9%.
As a result of 10 months of 2008 122 objects were put into commission, of which 107 were in operation to the full extent and for 15 objects a partial implementation of the facilities was made.
During January-October 2008 changes were made to the List of construction sights and objects, as a result of which the total volume of the budget allocations envisaged for FTIP financing in 2008 made RUR 520.3 bln. The volume of the budget allotments for the construction of the objects of the state ownership of the Russian Federation in 2008 increased by RUR 72.5 bln or 16.2% as compared with 2007.
Within the framework of the FTIP target programs the funds at the volume of RUR 267.1 bln are envisaged, funds for the objects of the non-program part being RUR 140.8 bln. The volume of funds envisaged to finance special works as a part of the state defense order makes RUR 112.4 bln.
In January-October 2008 financing of FTIP not taking into account the construction sights and objects that are part of the state defense order made RUR 239.5 bln or 63.2% of the annual limit. This is above the figures for the corresponding period of the previous year (54.1%) and mainly due to the approval of the List of construction sights and objects a month earlier than in the previous year.
Financing from the budgets of the subjects of the Russian Federation and other sources of annual limit for investments financing made RUR 34.3 bln in January-September 2008.
The annual limit for the state investments within the production complex (85.2%) is financed to the extent much above the average, whereas the constructions of the objects for special (47.6%) and social (46.7%) complexes are financed below the average level.
Table Objects, Envisaged by Target Investment Program in Units As RUR bln Number of objects Put into Commis- Limit for the state Financed Investments sion in January- investments from the used at the July 2008 Federal expense of Budget all sources total includ- to full par- total including of financing 1), ing with capacity tially from the the federal deadline budget in Total 2594 1247 107 15 428,8 379,2 239,5 169, including:
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