Effective yield, % Index RUX-Cbonds 24.09.22.10.220.127.116.11.22.01.22.02.24.03.22.04.22.05.23.06.22.07.22.08.24.09.24.10.18.104.22.168.the registered corporate bond issues was made by the two series of bonds, issued by OAO «Bank Zenit» for the total amount of RUR 8 billion and two series of bonds, issued by OAO «Mosenergo», totaling to RUR 10 billion.
In December, the number of corporate bond issues remained unchanged, but the their total volume has increased in the past few months. Thus, in the period of November 25 through December 24 the total face value of all placed bond issues has increased over 30 per cent as compared with the preceding period and reached RUR 41.1 bln. Such growth was based on participation of the largest bond emitters: OAO «Russian Railways», ZAO «Raiffeisenbank» and OAO «Russian Agricultural Bank», which have issued the bonds for the total amount of RUR 35 billion. One should note, that OAO «Russian Railways» has also issued also a large package of bonds for the amount od RUR bln in November.
100 Total emission Amount of placed issues 0 Fig. 7. Dynamics of corporate bonds primary placements In December the number of issues, recognized invalid due to non-placement of any securities in the period from 25 November to 24 December has decreased. Federal Statistical Service for Financial Markets of Russia has recognized as invalid seven issues of corporate bonds, offered for public placement (versus twelve placements for the relevant preceding period).
From November 25 to December 24, twenty four emitters have redeemed the bonded loans totaling to RUR 30.1 billion, including the bonds of OAO «Federal Network Company of Consolidated Energy Systems» in the amount of RUR 7 billion. In January- 2009 four issues of corporate bonds for the amount of RUR 14.5 bln is expected.
In recent months, due to reduced solvency of many bonds issuers, the number of defaults and delayed performance of obligations (the so-called technical default) is increased. Since the beginning of December the default on offer (bonds redemption) was announced by four emitters and six issuers have failed to repay the coupon yield. At this negative background the Federal Statistical Service for Financial Markets of Russia plans to introduce amendments to the RF Civil code in regard to debt instruments (bonds) replacement with participation in business capital (shares). It is envisaged, that the law will consolidate the bonds holders in the event of technical default; issues of extending the terms of stock bonds maturity and the number of potential borrowers expansion are under consideration.
rubles Amount of placed bond issues Total volume of placed bond issues, billion Jul.Jan.Apr.Jun.Oct.Nov.Oct.Nov.Feb.Mar.Dec.Aug.Dec.May.Sept.Real economy Sector: Trends and Factors O. Izryadnova In November 2008 the negative dynamics was observed for nearly all microindices for the first time over the last three years. This resulted in the decrease in the GDP growth expectations over the 4th quarter down to 102.3%, and over 2008 as a whole – down to 106.0%. The reduction of the real incomes of the population in November 2008 as compared with the previous month (97.1%) and with November 2007 (93.8%) may have a negative effect on the annual growth of the population’s living standards. Over November the number of the unemployed increased by 8.1% as compared with October 2007. By the end of the year the number of the citizens registered at the state employment agencies is expected to grow.
It was the deceleration of the economic growth rates that turned out to be the specific feature of the second half of 2008, which was accounted for by the negative influence of the factors of the external economic situation and the crisis of the financial and crediting relations.
The decrease of the business was defined by the slow-down of the investment activity as compared with the dynamics of the final consumption and had a considerable effect on the nature of structural shifts of the GDP used and produced. The GDP increasing over January-September 2008 by 7.3%, real final consumption of the households and investments in the fixed assets went up by approximately 13.1%.
Over the period of January-November 2008 the deceleration of the development rates was observed in nearly all kinds of the economic activities: the increase in the minerals extraction made 0.4% against 2.0% in the corresponding period of the previous year, in processing industries – 5.4% against 9.4%, and gas, electricity and water production and distribution increased by 2.4% after the decrease of 1.3%. In November 2008 the negative dynamics of nearly all the microindices was observed for the first time over the last three years. This resulted in the decrease of the estimated GDP growth over the 4th quarter down to 102.3% and on the whole over 2008 – down to 106.0%.
I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV(estimation) 2006 2007 --Investments in fixed assets Retail trade turnover Industry GDP Fig. 1 Growth Rates of GDP, Investments in Fixed Assets, Retail Trade Turnover and Output in Industry in 2006-2008, as percentage to the corresponding quarter of the previous year The facts that the dynamics of the main macroindices has been unsteady since the second half of 2008, the prices and the demand at the world markets of raw materials have been fluctuating sharply resulted in the decrease of Russia’s rating by the international agency Standard & Poor’s from “positive” to “stable” in September, and from “stable” to “negative” in October, leaving the ratings themselves unchanged. In December the agency lowered the long-term and short-term credit ratings of the Russian Federation concerning the liabilities in foreign exchange: from “ВВВ+/А-2” to “ВВВ/А-3”.
Besides, the long-term sovereign credit rating concerning the liabilities in national exchange was also lowered from “А” to “ВВВ+”, the short-term rating concerning the liabilities in the national currency sustaining at the level of “A-2”.
The “negative” forecast for the sovereign credit ratings of the Russian Federation reflects the possibility for further decrease in the ratings if the costs for the support of the financial system increase and the negative influence of some measures adopted for the long-term development aggravates, which is connected, for instance, with the capital outflow and the change in the confidence level for the monetary policy. Besides “negative” forecast reflects the increasing possibility of the budget deficit in 2009, which is opposite to the previous situation of the steady reduction of the debt of the Russian government.
For the first time since July 1998 in November 2008 there was a decrease in the volumes of the industrial production observed as compared with the corresponding period of the previous year (by 8.7%) and with the previous month of the current year (10.8%). The decrease in the production proceeded in the most acute forms in the processing industries, which is accounted for by the sharp reduction of production in the metallurgy, chemistry, machinery and equipment production. However on the whole over the period of January-November 2008 the industrial production growth rates remained in the area of positive values and made 103.7%. In the 4th quarter the decrease in the production can reach 10%, and the growth of the industrial production as a result of the year will drop to the figure of 2.0%, which is the minimum since 2002.
Starting with the second half of 2008 it has been the trade that has again become the leader of the national economy. The share of wholesale and retail trade in the GDP produced in January-September 2008 made 20.2%. However in the 4th quarter 2008 moderate growth of the foreign trade, whose drop in October was equal to 7.7% as compared with the previous month, was the main factor of the decrease in the share of trade in the GDP. The reduction of the trade volumes both inside the country and at the international level has substantially defined the change in the workload in transport: commercial freight turnover in November 2008 dropped by 7.0%.
The decrease in the economic growth was accompanied by the simultaneous slackening of the dynamics of both the internal and the external demand. The ratio of external to internal demand changed significantly throughout 2008. The decrease in the world prices for raw materials and the world demand rated started in the 3rd quarter 2008 resulted in the slow-down of the goods export supplies both in physical and in value volumes. However the high dynamics of the export growth in the first quarter of the current year allows estimating export growth as high as a result of the current year. Over months of 2008 goods and services export increased, according to the preliminary estimation of the Ministry for Economic Development and Trade, by 8.5% as compared with 4.5% over the corresponding period of the previous year.
It should be noted the anticipating import growth as compared with export both in terms of physical and value volume was the characteristics feature of 2006-2008, which finally resulted in the absolute reduction of the volumes of net export in the GDP. As to the structure of the retail trade resources, the share of import in 2008 expanded to 47%, being 34.0% in the foodstuffs and 54.4% in the non-food goods sector. High share of the import goods secures the balance of demand and supply at the investment market.
The growth of the retail trade was supported by the sustention of high growth rates of the real disposable incomes of the population. The increase in real disposable incomes of the population in January-November 2008 made 5.0%, in real wages – 11.8%, in real volume of the accrued pensions – 18.8% as compared with, correspondingly, 11.9%, 16.1% and 3.8% over the analogous period of the previous year. It should be noted that the growth of pensions and social benefits in the first half of 2008 assisted in the limitation of the growth of the population with the incomes below the subsistence level.
However, the negative dynamics of the growth of the real disposable incomes of the population in November 2008 as compared with the previous month (97.1%) and with November 2007 (93.8%) together with a considerable deceleration of the increase in real wages (101.2% and 107%, correspondingly, as compared with 103.5% and 116.8% in the analogous period of 2007) may have a negative effect on the annual figures of the population’s living standard.
The share of the labor remuneration in the structure of the incomes of the population decreased by 2.9 per cent as compared with the figures of January-September 2007 and was equal to 68.5%, the share of the social benefits increasing from 11.3% to 13.0%. In January-October 2008 the share of the monetary incomes of the population was equal to RUR 20568.6 bln. The population spent RUR 15089.8 bln for the purchase of goods and services and savings were equal to RUR 2559.6 bln. In 2008 the intensification of the trend for the decrease in the population’s inclination for saving was observed. Over January-October 2008 the share of savings in the incomes of the population decreased by 1.5 per cent and made 6.3%, the expenses for foreign currency purchase increasing up to 6.1% against 5.3% in January-October 2007. the dynamics of the savings of the population is substantially influenced by such factors as inflation acceleration, change of the situation in the real estate market, period problems with the liquidity concerning the banks and ruble depreciation. In January-October 2008 savings in the form of deposits and securities made 1.9% of the total aggregated incomes of the population as compared with 5.8% in the corresponding period of 2007, and it should be noted that in October an absolute decrease in the volumes of savings by 0.3 per cent was observed together with the acceleration of the processes for their conversion into foreign currency. The share of expenditures for currency purchase in October 2008 reached 10.2% of the incomes of the population and was the maximum figure for the past four years.
The dynamics and structure of the consumer expenditures was substantially influence by the increase in volumes of natural persons’ crediting despite al the problems in the financial system. The credits granted to the natural persons by the banks to purchase housing (in terms of rubles and foreign currency) made RUR 614.5 bln in January-September 2008 as compared with RUR 424.1 bln in the corresponding period of the previous year, of which the hypothecary housing credits comprised RUR 537.3 bln against RUR 363.8 bln a year ago. It should be noted that the debts for credits to natural persons went up to RUR 4004.1 bln as compared with RUR 2658.3 bln in the corresponding period of the previous year.
As compared with October 2007 there is a decrease in the proportion of the debts for the consumer credits, the debts for the credits for housing purchase increasing up to 28.7% as compared with 23.4% a year ago, and for the hypothecary credits, correspondingly, to 24.3% against 18.7%.
The growth rates of the monetary incomes of the population decelerating, the expenditures of the households decreased down to 47.6% of the GDP as a result of the first half of 2008 compared with 49.2% in 2007. The share of the expenses for goods purchase in the monetary incomes of the population is observed to increase from 54.7% in January-October 2007 to 57.0% in the corresponding period of 2008. On the whole over January-November 2008 the turnover of the non-food goods increased by 18.7% against 18.6% in the corresponding period of the previous year, in contrast to the deceleration of the foodstuffs goods turnover down to 8.7% compared with 12.4%. The trend for the gradual growth of the retail trade turnover and the volume of the paid services to the population was abolished in November 2008. The decrease in the solvent demand of the population resulted in the reduction of the retail trade turnover volume by 3.4% and the paid services to the population by 2.0% in November 2008 as compared with the previous month. As a result the retail trade turnover in January-November 2008 increased by 14.1% against 15.9% in the corresponding period of the previous year.
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