7,5% 5,6% 9 months of 2008 16,6% 31,4% 38,9% 4,2% 10,4% 3 quarter 2008 15,1% 37,6% 32,6% 8,6% 4,9% 2 quarter 2008 16,1% 30,4% 40,0% 3,8% 5,6% 1 quarter 2008 20,4% 20,4% 49,8% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Fossil fuels extraction Foodstuffs production Metallurgy Chemistry Others Source: Federal State Statistics Service Fig. 4 Structure of Foreign Investments by Branches of Industry in 90% 25% 80% 20% 70% 60% 15% 50% 40% 10% 30% 20% 5% 10% 0% 0% Direct investments Other investments Portfolio investments Source: Federal State Statistics Service Fig. 5 Structure of Foreign Investments in Industry in 2003-The proportion of direct investments in the industry has reduced from 40.7% in January-September 2007 to 28.8% in January-September 2008, the share of other investments increasing over the same period from 57.5% to 68.4%. The quarter by quarter dynamics demonstrate the considerable changes portfolio investments 1 quarter 2 quarter 3 quarter 4 quarter 1 quarter 2 quarter 3 quarter 4 quarter 1 quarter 2 quarter 3 quarter 4 quarter 1 quarter 2 quarter 3 quarter 4 quarter 1 quarter 2 quaretr 3 quarter 4 quarter 1 quarter 2 quarter 3 quarter in the structure of foreign investments in the industry in the current year. Thus, the share of the direct investments has been gradually decreasing for 9 months from 46.0% in the 1st quarter 2008 to 23.4% in the 3rd quarter. The proportion of other investments, in contrast, has expanded from 52.8% to 76.2%.
Changes were also observed in the structure of foreign investments by kinds of economic activities.
In January-September 2008 in the field of minerals extraction the proportion of direct investments reduced down to 53.7% (83.1% in January-September 2007). The volume of direct investments in this branch made USD 4.4 bln, being 2.8 times below the corresponding figure in January-September 2007. The share of other investments in the extraction, whose growth is estimated to be 47.9% (up to USD 3.8 bln), has increased up to 45.9% (16.8% in January-September 2007).
In contrast in 2008 in the processing industry, the same as in the previous year, the main share is accounted for by the other investments, which have increased by 18.0% as compared with JanuarySeptember 2007, reaching the total of 83.2% in the resulting figures for the investments in the processing industry (86.4% in January-September 2007). Direct foreign investments in the processing industries over the period concerned have increased by 79.5%. The proportion of the direct investments in the processing industry went up to 16.1% (11.0% in January-September 2007).
As to the geographic structure of the foreign investments received by the Russian economy over months of 2009, it is the Cyprus that holds the leading position, its share being USD 15.3 bln (USD 11.9 mln over 9 months of 2007), the second place is occupied by the Great Britain – USD 12.6 bln (USD 20.7 bln over 9 months of 2007), the third place – by the Netherlands – USD 8.9 bln (USD 17.bln over 9 months of 2007).
The biggest increase in the investments is observed for Germany – by 89.4% as compared with January-September 2007. Investments from the Cyprus went up by 28.8%, from France – by 15.3%, from the USA – by 5.5%. At the same time the investments from the Netherlands de creased by 48.4%, from Luxemburg – by 22.8%, from the Great Britain – by 39.5% and from Ireland – by 77.4%.
Table Inflow of Foreign Investments in Russian Federation as Broken by Main Investing Countries in As percentage to the correspondReceived as USD mln As percentage to the total ing period of 1st quar- 2nd 3rd 1st quar- 2nd quar- 3rd 1st 2nd 3rd ter quarter quarter. ter ter quarter. quarter quarter quarter.
USA 421 1024 653 115.7 134.6 75.6 2.4 3.5 2.Germany 902 2411 3215 135.4 179.9 223.1 5.2 8.2 11.UK 3258 7053 2239 104.3 59.2 39.3 18.9 24.1 7.Cyprus 4008 6812 4484 142.1 130.9 116.3 23.2 23.3 15.Netherlands 3444 2280 3187 44.4 56.4 116.3 20.0 7.8 10.Luxemburg 254 2029 6267 6.3 75.4 452.8 1.5 6.9 21.Other countries 4968 7666 9217 85.0 78.4 103.8 28.8 26.2 31.Source: Federal State Statistics Service The differences in the investment dynamics have resulted in the changes in the geographic structure of the foreign investments in the Russian economy. The proportion of the Cyprus has increased from 13.5% as a result of 9 months of 2007 to 20.2% in January-September 2008, that of Germany – from 3.9% to 8.6%, France – from 5.0% to 6.7%, the USA – from 2.3% to 2.8%. At the same time the proportion of the UK reduces over the period concerned from 23.6% to 16.6%, that of the Netherlands – from 19.6% to 11.8%, and of Luxemburg – from 9.2% to 8.3%.
As a result of 9 months of 2008, the same as in the previous year, the most attractive for the investors from the Cyprus were the operations with the real estate, trade, financial activity and construction, where they invested 26.9%, 25.8%, 7.7% and 6.8% of the total amount of the investments. As a result of January-September 2007 the mentioned spheres of the Russian economy accounted for 17.0%, 50.7%, 4.9% and 6.2% of the Cyprus investments, correspondingly.
Entrepreneurs from the Great Britain continue investing primarily in the trade, although they invested in this sphere as a result of 2008 by 3.3 times less finances than in January-September 2007. As a result of 9 months of 2008 the trade accounted for 38.5% of the total investments from the Great Britain in the Russian Federation (77.7% in January-September 2007). The share of the processing industries in the investments from the Great Britain has expanded from 18.0% in January-September 2007 to 33.6% as a result of 9 months of 2008.
As to the structure of the investments from the Netherlands in the Russian Federation there was a drop in the extraction of fossil fuels from 68.0% in January-September 2007 to 39.1% in JanuarySeptember 2008. There was 23.9% of the investments directed in the Russian Federation from the Netherlands received by the Russian power industry in 2008.
As a result of January-September 2008 it is the Cyprus, the Netherlands, Luxemburg, the Great Britain and Germany that still lead as to the total volume of accumulated investments, their share being 71.7% (71.3% in 9 months of 2007). At the same time the share of the first five investing countries in the segment of the direct investments has reduced to 75.1% (76.7% in January-September 2007), and expanded in the structure of portfolio investments to 75.3% (51.3% in January-September 2007), and in the structure of other investments to 68.4% (67.3% in January-September 2007).
Against the background of the decrease of the foreign investments in the Russian economy, the volume of the outflow capital in the form of the foreign investors’ profits transferred abroad as well as in the form of interest rates payments for the use of credits and credits settlements over 9 months of increased by 20.7% as compared with the corresponding period of 2007 and made USD 48.1 bln (63.4% of the foreign investments received in 9 months of 2008). The biggest outflow of the capital in real terms (USD 20 bln) was observed in the 2nd quarter 2008, the outflow capital in the 2nd quarter accounting for 68.3% of the investments received by the Russian economy over the period. In the 1st and 3rd quarters 2008 there was 82.6% and 47.2% of the received foreign investments that was taken out. As a result of 9 months of 2007 there was 45.3% of the total volume of the foreign investments received taken out.
Budgetary and Tax Policy О. Kirillov In November of the current year further amendments were introduced to the Law on the federal budget for 2008-2010. The Law has been amended for the fourth time. Moreover, the Government of the Russian Federation has adopted a new number of anti-crisis measures to stabilize the Russian economy.
Table Parameters of the RF Federal Budget in 2006 – 2008 (% in GDP) January - January - 2006 November November Revenues 23,5 23,7 23,9 22,Expenditures 16,2 17,5 18,4 15,Deficit (–)/ Surplus (+) 7,4 6,2 5,5 6,Source: RF Ministry of Finance, IET estimates On November 8, the President of Russia Mr. Dmitry Medvedev has signed the recent amendments to the federal budget for 2008-2010. It should be noted, that this is already the fourth modification to the original law, adopted last summer, six months ahead of the regular schedule of the budget process.
Never in recent years the federal budget has been amended so often.
The basic budget parameters are amended in the latest version of the Law on the federal budget.
Therefore, the gross domestic product is estimated in the amount of RUR 42 240 billion against RUR 38 952 billion, preset in the previous version of the Law. Inflation rate is amended from 8.5 per cent to 10.5 per cent14.
The estimated level of the total federal budget revenues is increased by 2.2 percentage points and amounts to 21.2 per cent of GDP. It is not quite clear what this adjustment is based on, as at the background of the current economic situation, one can rather expect a decline in revenues versus the indicator, estimated earlier. The estimates for expenditures are increased slightly, by 0.3 percentage points of GDP.
As shown in Fig. 1, the level of federal budget revenues at the end of 2008, is lagging behind the average level of recent years by more than 1 percentage point of GDP. Herewith, in monthly terms, in November this year, the federal budget revenues have declined to 13.5 per cent of GDP, whereas in December 2008 against December 2007.
recent years, the minimum monthly revenue level in the last quarter of the year amounted to 21 per cent of GDP.
One can assume in regard to the federal budget expenditures, that their level in December will not decline due to the firm government intention to execute the budget in full compliance with expenditure commitments. It was repeatedly stated earlier, that the Government will not reduce funding of prioritized areas of federal budget expenditures.
38% 35% 32% 29% 26% 23% 20% янв. февр. март апр. май июнь июль авг. сент. окт. нояб. дек.
2005 2006 2007 Fig. 1. RF Budget Revenue within 2005–2008, % in GDP 20% 18% 16% 14% 12% 10% янв. февр. март апр. май июнь июль авг. сент. окт. нояб. дек.
2005 2006 2007 Fig. 1. RF Budget Expenditures within 2005–2008, % in GDP % ВВП % ВВП Speaking of the approved amendments to the Law on the federal budget, we’d like to note, that the budget for 2008 was estimated basing on the price of the Russian oil of 55 dollars per barrel, whereas the budget for next year is estimated basing on the price of Urals oil at the level of 95 dollars. Now this level of price seems unlikely. As noted by a number of experts, oil prices have not yet reached its minimum level, and low oil prices are expected to be sustained for the major part of the next year.
Investments of budgetary funds in the authorized capital of some public corporations are significantly increased. The most significant changes have affected such companies as OAO «Agency for Housing Mortgage Credits» and OAO «Russian Railways». Investments in their authorized capital have increased from RUR 6 billion to 66 billion and from RUR 1.5 to 24 billion, respectively.
The balance of the federal budget funds, addressed to cover temporary cash gaps that arise during the implementation of the federal budget, can be used to reduce the budgetary borrowing of up to RUR 200 billion against RUR 100 billion in the previous version of the law.
The upper limit of public external debt of the Russian Federation as of January 1, 2009 up to USD 41.9 billion, or EURO 27.2 billion, which is less than in previous version of the law by USD 1.4 billion or EURO 4.9 billion, respectively.
In the framework of anti-crisis measures, the government id going to take the following additional actions:
The budgets of the Russian regions will additionally receive over RUR 100 billion to cover the lost revenue, associated with tax deductions. It is planned to transfer the taxes from the federal level to the subjects of the Russian Federation, in particular, to leave to the regions 0,5 per cent of the income tax and 40 per cent of the excise tax on petroleum products. The level of declining revenue from the subjects of the Russian Federation is estimated at 80 billion rubles.
Moreover, measures are being taken to improve crediting of the real sector of the economy. It is planned, that the state would share credit risks with businesses and banks, which in monetary terms exceeds RUR 300 billion.
Herewith, there will be two types of guarantees to be provided to the banks and businesses by the government: 70 per cent of the credit is guaranteed by enterprises of public defense sector, 50 per cent of credit is guaranteed by companies other economic spheres. However, 50 per cent of guarantees of credit will be granted only to the enterprises, enclosed in the list, which is currently compiled by the government.
With regard to agro-industrial complex, over 3 per cent of the largest agro-industrial enterprises will be able to imply such a system of credit, while other agricultural companies will be able to have budgetary subsidies.
The government also intends to introduce a simplified procedure for the financing of companies, working in the framework of approved targeted programs. In particular, ministers of industries will be empowered to take independent decisions on the continuation of funding of a successful enterprise, working in the framework of the targeted program.
Anti-crisis measures are extended to the banking sector as well. Delegated representatives of the RF Central Bank to commercial banks will have an access to all transactions of commercial banks, the value of which exceeds 1 per cent of the bank assets balance value.
Those anti-crisis measures will come into effect since January 1, 2009.
As of December 1, 2008, the aggregate volume of the Reserve Fund in rubles has amounted to RUR 3 661.37 billion, or 8.5 per cent of GDP, and the Fund of National Welfare made RUR 2 108.46 billion, or 4.9 per cent of GDP. In October-November 2008, the assets, transferred to the National Welfare Fund upon the National Reserve Fund has reached the established value, amounted to RUR 847.55 billion, or 2 per cent of GDP. In accordance with the Orders of the Minister of Finance of Russia, in October-November the National Welfare Fund assets in the amount of 365.00 billion rubles have been placed on deposit with the public corporation “Bank for Development and Foreign Economic Activities” (Vnesheconombank)".
Материалы этого сайта размещены для ознакомления, все права принадлежат их авторам.
Если Вы не согласны с тем, что Ваш материал размещён на этом сайте, пожалуйста, напишите нам, мы в течении 1-2 рабочих дней удалим его.