Dynamics of international stock market indices Dynamics Dynamics from Data as of December 24, 2007 Ticket Value within the the beginning of month (%)17 the year (%) MICEX (Russia) MICEXINDEXCF 1929.31 7.67% 13.93% RTS (Russia) RTSI 2303.28 6.86% 19.84% Dow Jones Industrial Average (USA) DJI 13549.33 4.56% 8.72% Nasdaq Composite (USA) NASD 2713.5 5.14% 12.35% S&P 500 (USA) SPX 1496.45 4.78% 5.51% FTSE 100 (UK) FTSE 6479.3 5.51% 4.16% DAX-30 (Germany) DAX 8002.67 6.26% 21.31% CAC-40 (France) CAC 5614.28 3.31% 1.31% Swiss Market (Switzerland) SSMI 8468.37 0.44% -3.61% Nikkei-225 (Japan) NIKKEI 15257 0.22% -11.43% Bovespa (Brazil) BUSP 63097.71 6.17% 41.88% IPC (Mexico) IPC 29853.77 6.15% 12.88% IPSA (Chile) IPSA 3079.97 0.76% 14.35% Straits Times (Singapore) STI 3434.53 1.84% 15.03% Seoul Composite (South Korea) KS11 1919.47 3.21% 33.81% ISE National-100 (Turkey) XU100 55510.46 7.89% 41.91% Morgan Stanley Emerging Markets Free Index EMF 997.9 -16.00% 9.34% External factors behind Russian stock market dynamics One of the basic factors, supporting the Russian stock market during the month, was again the world oil market, where prices in December have reached the peak values once again. It can be largely explained, among other factors, by the report of the US Ministry of Energy on further reduction of “black gold” reserves. An important factor was also the agreement between the US FRS and other central banks to coordinate measures on prevention credit crisis. The quotations were affected by oil leakage from the Norwegian The calculation was based on indices of corporate bonds traded on MICEX. The indices were produced by the Zenit bank.
Against indices of November 2007.
02.10.18.10.03.11.22.11.08.12.26.12.19.01.07.02.26.02.16.03.03.04.19.04.08.05.25.05.13.06.29.06.17.07.02.08.20.08.05.09.21.09.09.10.188.8.131.52.184.108.40.206.oil platform in the North Sea. Moreover, the dynamics of the Russian oil market was influenced by the reduced interest rate by a quarter of per cent point, made by the USA FRS.
All external factors have led to the growth of the majority of stock indices (See Table 1 and Fig. 6).
Dynamics of the main USA and Russian stock indexes (in % to the date 01.09.2006) 150,00% Dow Jones Industrial Average 140,00% NASDAQ Composite The MICEX Index 130,00% The RTS Index 120,00% 110,00% 100,00% 90,00% 80,00% Corporate News ОАО «Gasprom» On December 5, 2007 ОАО “Gasprom” has disclosed non-audited intermediary consolidated reporting for the first six months of 2007, prepared in accordance with IAS 34 (“Intermediary Financial Reporting” 34).
Within six months of 2007 proceeds from sales (after excise tax, VAT and customs duties) has increased by RUR 52,470 million, or by 5 per cent as compared with the same period of 2006 and amounted to RUR 1,143,894 million. During the same period, net proceeds from the sales of gas increased by RUR 36,million, or 5 per cent against the same period of 2006 and amounted to RUR 758,293 million.
ОАО «Gasprom Neft» ОАО " Gasprom Neft " has disclosed for the first time consolidated reporting for the third quarter and nine months of 2007, prepared in accordance with US GAAP.
According to the financial results, revenues of OAO “Gazprom Neft” for the third quarter of 2007 have grown as compared with the figures of preceding year by 0.5per cent and amounted to USD 5434 million.
Profit before interest payments, profit tax and amortization (EBITDA) made USD 1449 million, which is by 7.2 per cent more than in the third quarter of 2006. Revenue of OAO “Gazprom Neft" for the first nine months of 2007 amounted to USD 14,677 million, which is by 5.5 per cent less than the relevant indicator of preceding year. Net profit for the first nine months of 2007 amounted to USD 2819 million, which corresponds to the level of the past year.
ОАО «LUKOIL» ОАО "LUKOIL" has disclosed consolidated financial reporting for the third quarter and nine months of 2007, prepared in accordance with the USA principles of financial reporting US GAAP. Net profit in the third quarter and nine months of 2007 amounted to USD 2482 million, what is by 2.1 per cent more than in the third quarter of 2006. Herewith, the net profit of the company within 9 months of 2007 has amounted to USD 6298 million, the EBITDA (earnings before deducting interest, the profit tax, depreciation and amortization) made USD 10370 million (by 1.9per cent more than in the 9 months of 2006), sales profit amounted 02.10.18.10.03.11.22.11.08.12.26.12.15.01.31.01.16.02.06.03.22.03.09.04.25.04.10.05.28.05.12.06.28.06.16.07.01.08.17.08.04.09.20.09.08.10.24.10.09.11.27.11.13.12.to USD 57096 million, which is by 11.0 per cent more than in the 9 months of 2006. The total volume of oil sales and oil products reached 98.8 million tons, which is 4.6 per cent more than in the nine months of 2006.
ОАО «GМК «Norilsk Nickel» On December 14, 2007 OAO “GMK Norilsk Nickel" ("Norilsk Nickel", the" Company") held an extraordinary general meeting of shareholders summoned on the issue of reorganization of the Company in the form of allocation of non-targeted energy assets. According to preliminary results of voting on the allocation of non-energy assets has not received the required number of votes of the company shareholders. The final results of the voting will be disclosed in accordance with the current legislation of the Russian Federation.
In December 2007, the Government Committee on mineral reserves “Rosnedra” has approved the reserves of the group "Norilsk Nickel" deposit "Bugdainskoye", located in Chita region. The approved category of the deposit is B + C1, the volumes are: 436.2 million tones of ore, 347.5 thousand tones of molybdenum, 11.tons of gold, 193.5 tons of silver, 41.4 thousand tons of lead. Category C2: ore - 376.3 million tones, molybdenum - 252, 2 thousand tons. The reserves of molybdenum and ore, are increased by 40.9 per cent and 44.per cent as compared with the previously approved rating.
The deposit is regarded as a major field in terms of its reserves. Bugdainskoye reserves contain various components: molybdenum, gold, silver, lead. The ore bedding allows for open-cut mining at the estimated volume of 16 million tons per year. Meanwhile, the international audit company Micon International Co Limited has performed an independent audit of reserves and resources of Bugdainskoye deposit, and generally confirmed the findings of geologists of OOO "Vostokgeologiya" (a subsidiary of Norilsk Nickel, created for the exploration works in the eastern regions of Russia). Micon Indicated: ore - 383.7 million tonnes, molybdenum - 335, 8 thousand tonnes, gold - 5 tons. As per Inferred: ore - 233.2 million tonnes, molybdenum - 175.5 thousand tons.
«Sberbank of Russia» On the 7th of December 2007, the international credit rating agency Fitch Ratings has confirmed the ratings of Sberbank of Russia:
• Long-term issuer default rating at "BBB +" with "Stable" forecast, • Short-term issuer default rating "F2" • Individual rating "C" • Approval rating "2" The level of support for long-term issuer default rating is "BBB +".
ОАО «Surgutneftegas» A new Chairman of the Board of Directors was elected by meeting of the Board of Directors "Surgutneftegas" on December 19.
ОАО «Tatneft» OAO "Tatneft"basic has disclosed basic results of operational and financial performance under the U.S.
GAAP for the nine months through September 30, 2007. During the first nine months of 2007, the sales profit amounted to RUR 258436 million. During the same period, the net profit amounted to RUR million.
In November Tatneft extracted 2055889 tons of oil in excess of the planned amount of 30299 tons (the plan is performed by 101.5per cent).
Real sector: trends and factors O. Izryadnova Considerable growth of construction and processing industries in 2007 allows making the conclusion that investment character of economic growth sustains. One of the main problems of the second half of 2007 was sustention of the growing dynamics of consumption against the intensifying inflation.
Characteristic feature of 2007 was acceleration of economic growth by nearly all kinds of economic activities. Increase in business activity in 2007 was based on anticipating growth of investments against the dynamics of final consumption and had the biggest impact on the character of structural shifts in produced and used GDP. GDP increasing by 7.8% over January-September 2007, real final consumption of households increased by 13.3% and investments in fixed assets – by 21.2%.
The positive dynamics of final consumption was one of the main factors of internal market development in 2001-2007. Increase of inflation level influenced substantially the dynamics of final households’ consumption in 3 and 4 quarters of 2007. Consumer prices index was equal to 110.6% over January-November 2007, exceeding by 1.6 p.p. the year figure of 2006. As a result in January-November 2007 growth rates of population’s real incomes slowed down to 10.1% against 13.2% in the corresponding period of the previous year. At the same time the structure of population’s real incomes changed against the background of acceleration of real wages growth rates by 16.0% (13.4% in 2006) real pensions and social payments growing quite moderately. The expected level of inflation for 2007, the existing trend sustaining, is in the range of 112.0-112.3%.
Table Structure of Population’s Cash Incomes 1999–2007, as percentage to the total 3 quarter 2004 2005 2006 2006 Cash incomes - total 100 100 100 100 Labor remuneration. including hidden wages 64.9 64.8 66.4 66.6 69.Profits from entrepreneurial activity 11.7 11.4 11.2 11.7 10.Profits from property 8.3 8.9 7.2 7.3 6.Social payments 12.9 12.9 13.2 14.8 12.Other incomes 2.2 2.0 2.0 1.7 2.Source: Federal State Statistics Service Structural changes in population’s cash incomes formation were accompanied by the change in population distribution as to the value of average incomes per capita. In January-September 2007 average nominal incomes per capita growing by 121.7% and nominal wages – by 125.8% the share of population with average per capita income of more than RUR 12000 increased by nearly 9.2 p.p., and with the incomes below RUR 6000 decreased by nearly 8.0 p.p. This however has not relaxed social ad economic differentiation of the population as to incomes.
Dynamic growth of investments, construction work and processing industries in 2007 allows making conclusion that investment character of economic growth sustained. As compared with January-November increase in industrial production was 6.3%, workload in construction – 22.4%, retail trade turnover – 15.0%.
In 2007 economic growth was defined by anticipating development rates of processing industries, although in the second half of the year a gradual slackening of the dynamics from 14.5% in 1 quarter to 9.5% in quarter and 7.2% in 3 quarter was observed. However on the whole over January-November 2007 output growth rates of processing industries exceeded the figure of the corresponding period of the previous year by 5. p.p. and were equal to 9.4%, minerals extraction increasing by 2.0% and electricity, gas and water production and distribution reducing by 1.3%. Under existing dynamics of the production the Ministry of Economic Development and Trade raised the expected estimation for the GDP growth in 2007 up to 7.6% and for investments in fixed assets – to 20.5%.
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 GDP Households' final consumption investments in fixed assets Fig. 1 Changes in GDP Dynamics by Components of Final Demand in 2001–2007, as percentage to the corresponding quarter of the previous year Source: Federal State Statistics Service I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I IV IV I Y IV IV I Y However it should be taken into account that since the second half of 2007 a slight slowdown of investments growth rates has been observed, which is connected with exhaustion of the low base effect of the beginning of the year, limitations of enterprises and population’s incomes growth as well as availability of necessary production and construction resources.
Stirring up of construction activity has led to acceleration of investment goods production rates. Over January-November 2007 machinery and equipment production increased by 20.5% against 1.6% in the corresponding period of 2006, transport vehicles and equipment production – by 15.1% as compared with 3.5%.
Electric, electronic and optic equipment production growth recovered by 12.7% in 2007 as compared with reduction in production by 3.6% in the corresponding period of the previous year. Against the background of unsteady dynamics of domestic machine-building production development in 2005-2006 the share of investments in purchase of import equipment was equal to 18.6% in January-September 2007.
At the market of machine-building investment goods increase in import is one of the main factors of investment projects fulfillment, production modernization and technological innovations introduction. It should be noted that investment activity being traditionally low, fixed assets being highly deteriorated, technologies – outdated, such machine-building production as machine tools, agriculture equipment, road building equipment, motor vehicles industries experience increasing influence of competitive import.
Analysis of specific features of investment goods market formation is of fundamental importance since over the recent years it has been the anticipating growth of investments in the fixed assets as compared with the dynamics of final consumption that had the prevailing influence on GDP structural shifts. As to growth rates machine-building in last three years is considerably behind the dynamics of the investments in the fixed assets, which aggravated the disproportions of domestic production of investment goods and demand, which is formed under the influence of urgent necessity to change reproduction and technological structures of investments and maintenance of high business activity in the Russian economy.
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