An analysis of data on production and export of oil and oil products shows that nearly half of the total volume of oil, extracted in 2006 has been exported in the form of oil products. The net volume of oil and oil products export in 2006 made, by tentative estimates, 351.7 mln t, i.e. it has grown by 48 mln t versus the preceding year. As a result, the share of net oil and oil products export made 51.6 per cent of its production;
the relevant share of gas made in 2006 29.5 per cent.
Though the share of oil products in the structure oil export has been somewhat increased, the share of crude oil still prevailed and made over 70 per cent in the total volume of oil and oil products. The leading position among all exported oil products took furnace fuel (which is used in Europe for further processing) and diesel fuel. The bulk of energy resources were exported outside CIS.
Table Revenue from Oil and Oil Products Export in 2001-2006, USD bln 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 (months) Revenue from oil and basic 33,4 38,7 51,1 74,6 112,4 106,oil products export Source: Federal State Statistics Service.
80 40 0 Млн. т (левая шкала) Млн. долл (правая шкала) Source: Federal State Statistics Service Fig.1. Dynamics of oil and oil products export in natural terms and in terms of revenues in 1997-2006, bln t/USD bln Dynamics of oil and oil products export in natural terms and in terms of revenues is shown in Fig. 1.
Basing on the results of the long-term analysis of the dynamics of Russian oil export market, the total net export of oil and oil products in 2006 has reached its historical peak and by estimates, has exceeded by 60.mln tones (by 20.6 per cent) the level of 1988, characterized by maximum level of oil export (291.6 mln t).
At the same time, the share of oil products was growing in the export, which has been raised from 8.2 per cent in 1990 up to 29.6 per cent in 2006. In the framework of expressed decline of domestic consumption of oil (according to our evaluation, from 269.9 mln t in 1990 to, by assumption, 128.6 mln t in 2006, i.e. twofold), the share of net oil export and oil products in its production volume has grown within the relevant period from 47.7 per cent to 73.2 per cent.
The above figures demonstrate a strengthening export tendency in the oil and gas sector as compared with pre-reform period, but one should realize that it is explained by not only increased volume of production in янв.сен.янв.сен.янв.сен.янв.сен.янв.сен.янв.сен.янв.сен.янв.сен.янв.сен.янв.сен.май.май.май.май.май.май.май.май.май.май.absolute terms, but by a considerable reduction of domestic consumption as well, caused by general restructuring of the Russian economy.
The high level of prices for oil and gas in the international market, Observed in 2006, has resulted in expressed growth of revenues in the oil sector of economy. The total revenue from oil and basic oil products export (motor petrol, diesel fuel and furnace fuel) in January-September of 2006 came up to USD 106.8 bln, which is the peak level for the relevant period of the year within complete post-reform period (see Table 6).
For comparison, one can mention that the minimal revenue from oil export was observed in the background of declining international oil market in 1998, when export income made only USD 14 bln.
Thus, the situation currently existing in the world oil market makes it possible to expect that in the nearest future the high international oil prices will remain at the same level. According to IET estimates, an average Brent price within the nearest three months (January-March 2007) will be USD 66.5 per barrel.12 Therefore, the high level of prices will provide favorable external conditions for building state budget revenue, further replenishment the stabilization fund and promoting the development of the oil and gas sector.
Yu. Bobyliov Foreign Trade The key indicators of the Russian foreign trade continued to grow in October 2006. In spite of a slight reduction of oil prices the world market situation remains extremely favorable for the Russian exporters. The strengthening of the Ruble and the growth of domestic consumer demand continue to encourage the growth of imports.
In the last months of 2006, however, the growth rates of the Russian export have gone down. In October the May 2006 trend of advance growth rate of imports into Russia against those of the Russian exports intensified.
In October 2006 the foreign trade turnover of Russia calculated by the method of balance of payments reached $ 40.6 billion which exceeds the last year indicator by 20.3%.
The monetary value of the October 2006 exports exceeds the similar indicator for 2005 by 12.2% reaching $24.9 billion.
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 Balance Export Import Source: RF Central Bank Fig. 1. Key Indicators of the Russian Foreign Trade (in billions of USD) Ref: Bulletin of approximation short-term estimates of the RF socio-economic indicators, published by IET, the CPI in November 2006. М.: IET, 2006.
Se Se Se Se Se Se Se Ma Ma Ma Ma Ma Ma Ma Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan According to the Bank of Russia, the world prices with account of the Russian export structure for all the goods including up to 80% of the export value fell down by 2.6% in October 2006 as compared to the previous month. In January- October 2006 they were by 23% higher than in the similar period of 2005.
In the first half of October 2006 the world oil prices were growing. This growth was caused by the daily reduction of crude production by 170,000 bbl from the 1st of October in Nigeria and Venezuela, and also by a possible reduction of OPEC crude production. In the second half of October the growth of stock of crude and oil products in the USA, the expectation of relatively mild winter in this country as well as the announcement by British Petroleum of the plans on immediate increase of crude production in Alaska triggered the revival of the price reduction trend. In this situation the OPEC decision to cut down the crude production by 1.2 million barrels from the 1st of November and the agreement of the oil cartel members to renew the discussion of another reduction in December supported further the crude price reduction trend.
In October 2006 the average price on three crude brands fell down by 6.8% vs the previous month. The average monthly Urals world price was $55.1/bbl dropping by 6.5% vs September 2006, remaining at the level of September 2005. In January – October 2006 vs the similar period of 2005 the average price on crude was higher by 23.3%, and the Urals price was higher by 23.7%.
In October 2006 the prices on oil products dropped vs the previous month. Premium petrol price dropped by 7.0%, diesel fuel price – by 4.6% while fuel oil by 3.1%. In January – October 2006 the products prices were higher, on the average, than in the similar period of 2005 (the premium petrol was more expensive by 20%, diesel fuel – by 16% and fuel oil by 32%).
In October 2006 the prices on natural gas in Europe increased by 2.3% vs September, and in the USA – by 22.6%. In January – October 2006 vs the similar period of 2005 the natural gas price in Europe went up by 37% while in the USA dropped by 20%.
In October 2006 the world prices on the products of the Russian fuel and energy complex dropped by 3.7% on the average vs the previous month; in January – October 2006 they were higher by 26% than the prices of the 2005 similar period.
In October 2006 the prices on ferrous metals decreased by 1.5% vs September. In January – October the prices on ferrous metals dropped by 1.9% vs the similar period of 2005.
Extremely low stocks of certain metals were recorded at the licensed warehouses of London Metal Exchange thus pushing up prices. The October non-ferrous market was considerably affected by the USD rate dynamics vs the leading world currencies and by the power market situation. In October 2006 vs the previous month aluminum became more expensive by 7.5%, nickel by 7.0%, while copper became cheaper by 1.3%. In January – October 2006 the prices on non-ferrous metals were higher than in January – October 2005 (thus copper price was higher by 1.9 times, nickel price – by 1.5 and aluminum price by 1.4 times).
Monthly Average World Prices in October of the Respective Year 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 CRude(Brent), USD/bbl 24,08 17,9 12,8 24,1 32,14 21,45 27,2 29,6 49,8 58,2 57,Natural gas, USD/1 mln BTU 2,742 2,346 2,205 2,558 5,767 2,649 4,144 5,162 7,7 12,197 12,Petrol, USD/gallon 0,67 0,569 0,421 0,699 0,895 0,603 0,801 0,841 1,43 2,056 1,Copper, USD/t 1968,5 1900,7 1659,2 1748,1 1838,6 1405,1 1519,0 1916,4 3012,0 4060 Aluminum, USD/t 1341,1 1538,5 1354,2 1470,7 1473,5 1280,8 1313,2 1474,8 1822,8 1929 Nickel, USD/t 7060,9 6240,5 4262,4 7984,2 7353,2 4836,8 6840,9 11030 14483 12403 Source: based on London Metal Exchange and IPE data The high world prices contributed to a further growth of contractual prices actually on all the items of Russian exported goods. Within the year the average weighted contractual prices on crude increased by 36.2% as compared to 2005. The contractual price on crude exported to far-abroad countries increased by 26.6% reaching $435.9/t ($59.9/bbl). The highest contractual prices on 2006 crude were recorded in September and the lowest in January.
The contractual prices on the key items of ferrous and non-ferrous metals increased also. The export prices on aluminum increased in 2005 vs 2004 by 12.5%, copper by 31%, nickel by 11.8%, aluminum items by 15.2%, copper items by 78.5%.
The export prices on the Russian non-ferrous metals are much lower than the world prices: the average export price on aluminum during 10 months of 2006 was $1580/t at the average monthly price under LME three-month contracts being $2,620/t in January – October. Nickel is exported at $ 21,050/t (98% of LME price), copper at $6,290 /t (95% of LME).
Since May 2006 a trend of faster import growth rates vs the export growth rates demonstrated itself in Russia. If in 1Q 2006 the export grew by 34.5% and the import by 23.5% against the similar period of the last year, in 2Q 2006 their growth rates became almost equal reaching 28.6% and 29.1%, accordingly, while in 3Q the export growth rates were considerably behind those of the import: 23.1% and 31.6% accordingly.
In October 2006 this lag was even more pronounced: the export increased by 12.2% as compared to October 2005, while the import by 36%.
In October 2006 the Russian import hit the highest record of $15.7 billion for the last 15 years. The increase of the import was observed for all the goods items. Machine engineering products developed most dynamically. For 10 months of 2006 the specific weight of those products in the Russian import structure reached 47.1%, exceeding the 2005 level by 2.7% points. During the period of January through October the imports of machinery, equipment and transportation vehicles increased by 54.9% vs the 2005 similar period.
Such growth may be partially explained by the canceling of import duties for technological equipment manufactures abroad. According to the 2006 – 2007 planned actions for the industry and technologies development, further reduction of the import duties is expected. In March 2007 a new resolution is expected to be approved regulating construction machines and plants, pipe and tubes mills, equipment for the textile industry and health facilities. For the majority of these goods a zero rate of the import duties is proposed while for the others - the rate of 5%. The mandatory condition for importing such goods at the reduced rates will be the absence of production facilities of the similar equipment in Russia. There are 80 new commodity items in this list.
If the new document is accepted, the list of technological equipment to be supplied into Russia at minimal or zero rate will contain up to 800 commodity items.
Late 2006 the Government of the Russian Federation passed a number of decisions to protect the national economic interests.
Thus on December 21, 2006, Resolution of the RF Government of the 15th of November was enacted “On the Measures to Protect the Russian Manufacturers of Large Diameter Tubes”; according to this resolution a special 8% duty is introduced for the import of large diameter tubes (from 508mm to 1,420 mm) and will remain in force during three years; however the developing countries that enjoy preferences within the national system of Russia will be excluded. There are 104 countries like that including China, Argentina and Mexico. The customs authorities are instructed to charge this special duty regardless of other customs tariffs established for tubes.
In May 2006 the Fund of Development of Tube Industry (FRTP) addressed the Ministry of Industry and Energy with an initiative to introduce quotas limiting the use of imported tubes/pipes by 30% in major construction project. In spring 2006 the federal government thought that the tariff measures were sufficient to protect the market from imports, however they decided to change the terms in November.
The special duties will considerably affect the Ukrainian suppliers of oil and gas line pipes; their products will have a heavier customs burden since in December a customs duty at 8.9% was introduced specifically for the Ukrainian pipes.
From January 1, 2007, an export duty will be imposed on the Russian crude exported to Byelorussia as well as other countries that are not members of the Customs Union. Earlier crude was supplied to Byelorussia under the rules of the single customs area with no export duties charged. The decision to charge duties was passed to “protect the economic interests of the Russian Federation after Byelorussia terminated the Agreement on the procedure of distribution and budgeting into the union budgets the customs duties on the exported by the Byelorussian enterprises of the products manufactured from the Russian feed stock, of May 12, 1995”. According to this Agreement, the export duties on oil products from Byelorussia received by the Byelorussian budget were to be divided between the budgets of the two countries. However since 1995 Byelorussia has never remitted any portion of the customs duties into the Russia’s budget.
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